Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 141809

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1209 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Surface cold front near the Four Corners will move through the
northwest west half of the state by 15/00Z. Winds will gust in the
25 to 40 kt range across northern eastern portions of the area
through approximately sunset. Overnight, a backdoor cold front will
plunge southward through the eastern plains with N and NE wind gusts
in the 30 to 45 kt range close to the TX border. Latest model data
suggesting winds around sunrise in the north valley Sunday morning
will be weak.



.PREV DISCUSSION...608 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017...
A band of showers and a few thunderstorms will gradually shift SEWD
across SE areas this morning before exiting SE of the forecast area
this afternoon. Meanwhile, an area of low clouds producing MVFR and
IFR conditions E of the Pecos River and S of the Caprock should
gradually lift and taper off through mid morning. Otherwise, winds
will shift out of the W and NW today as a Pacific cold front crosses
western areas. Speeds will gust in the 25 to 40 kt range across
northern and E central parts of the forecast area this afternoon.
Tonight, a back door cold front will plunge SWWD through the eastern
plains with N and NE wind gusts in the 30 to 45 kt range close to the
TX border. The front will probably enhance the drainage wind in
Albuquerque`s north valley early Sunday morning, while adding a bit
more of a northeasterly component to it.



.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017...
A cold front will move southeast over New Mexico today and tonight.
Any lingering showers and storms over the southeast plains will move
out of the area tonight. North winds may gust up to 45 mph for a
couple hours over the far eastern plains this evening. Temperatures
will trend 10 to 15 degrees cooler for Sunday. High pressure will
build over the area Monday then shift west into northwestern Mexico
through Thursday. Temperatures will gradually warm back above normal
all areas and winds will also increase each afternoon through next
week. The next low pressure system will attempt to move into New
Mexico Friday through the weekend.


A thin plume of moisture is streaming over the southeastern half of
NM this morning ahead of an approaching upper level trough. The 00Z
KEPZ RAOB PW value was close to 1" within deep layer SW flow. A few
storms overnight did produce heavy rainfall amounts up to 1" around
Chaves, Roosevelt, and Quay counties. Much drier air over the Four
Corners region this morning will advance southeast thru this evening
while a cold front shifts across NM. Any storms lingering over the
southeast plains will shift into the Permian Basin overnight. Two to
three hours of wind advisory winds are possible behind the frontal
passage over the far eastern plains tonight. 00Z guidance trended
the winds higher but will defer to day crew to decide if the trend
warrants highlights.

Temperatures Sunday morning will trend much colder than the past 3
mornings as a very dry 1032mb surface high pressure builds into NM.
Gap winds are looking less likely around the ABQ east side as the
stronger east/west pressure gradient focuses southward into the
Socorro and Carrizozo areas. Sunday will be a gorgeous day with
light winds, sunny skies, and temps 5 to 10F below normal. Another
chilly night is on tap for Sunday night.

A 592dm H5 ridge will develop over southern AZ Monday then drift
westward off the Baja coastline Tuesday and Wednesday. Flow aloft
will shift from northwest to quasi-zonal over NM thru Thursday. A
deep dry intrusion within this airmass will continue the very nice
weather conditions over NM most of next week. Extended guidance is
coming into agreement that an upper wave will approach from the west
Friday and develop into an upper low over NM next weekend.



An upper level trough will pass to the north of NM today, before
ejecting eastward onto the Great Plains tonight. It will send a
Pacific cold front into western then central areas today with a wind
shift out of the northwest. The polar jet stream will also cross CO
today, while a surface trough develops in the lee of the southern
Rockies, causing west and northwest winds to gust from 25 to 40 mph
over northern and east central areas this afternoon. Gusts could
reach 50 mph on the highest peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.
And, humidities will trend downward most places. A few hours of
critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon in
zones that touch the CO border; however, the coverage and duration
of critical conditions should be too limited to warrant any fire
weather headlines. Ahead of the Pacific front, a plume of fairly
deep moisture will gradually retreat southeastward with a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms over southern parts of the east
central plains.

Tonight, a back door cold front will dive south and southwestward
through the eastern plains. Wind gusts will probably reach 50 mph
around Clayton and Clovis with peak gusts around 30 to 40 mph
elsewhere along the eastern border.  With the fronts crossing, high
temperatures will trend downward today and Sunday with readings
bottoming out a few to 7 degrees below normal across northern and
central areas on Sunday afternoon, and as much as 12 degrees below
normal across the east. With the cooler temperatures will come
widespread poor ventilation Sunday.

A ridge of high pressure will cross the southern Rockies Monday
through Tuesday night allowing temperatures to warm. High
temperatures are expected to reach a few to 7 degrees above normal
by Tuesday afternoon, with additional warming across the east on
Wednesday. A weak shortwave trough will cross on Wednesday
strengthening winds aloft some, and allowing ventilation to improve
most places after mostly fair to poor readings Monday and Tuesday.

Thursday and Friday will feature strengthening winds and increasing
humidities as a fairly deep trough crosses the Great Basin from the
west. Showers and thunderstorms may develop across northwest areas
as early as Friday afternoon.






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