Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 040529 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1029 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period, although the development and gradual lowering of VFR cigs are
expected overnight. Mountain obscurations are possible overnight and
Monday morning across northern New Mexico as a cold front pushes
through. Look for increasing winds overnight in the lower atmosphere,
with the potential for mountain wave development to the lee of the
central and northern mountains. Stronger winds may impact KLVS early
Monday morning than what is currently forecast.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...230 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong upper low will cross the CO/WY Rockies tonight and glance the
northern mountains of NM, and a Pacific cold front will move across
the state tonight. Light snow and blowing snow is expected for the
northern mountains tonight with light accumulations of snow. The
higher peaks could receive 2 to 4 inches overnight. Monday will be
much cooler across the entire region with breezy northwest winds
east of the central mountains. A backdoor cold front Monday night
into Tuesday will reinforce the cold air, and all of northern and
central NM will have daytime temperatures below normal. Chilly
northwest flow aloft will produce dry weather Wednesday and Thursday,
while temperatures remain below normal. Light rain and snow showers
will be possible across far southern portions of the region
Wednesday, as moisture seeps northward over the colder air at the
surface. Large upper level high will move toward NM from the west
Friday through the upcoming weekend with continued dry weather and
a return to above normal temperatures.

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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Well-defined upper level trough will move across WY/CO tonight with
the base of the trough glancing northern NM. The main dynamics and
moisture with this system will pass well to the north of NM, but
limited moisture and westerly upslope flow in the northern mountains
will produce light snowfall. The western slopes of the Tusas and
Sangre de Cristo mountains could receive 2 to 4 inches with lesser
amounts across the surrounding areas. A strong lee surface low will
develop tonight in western Nebraska, causing winds to increase across
the northern mountains. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible tonight in
the higher elevations of the Tusas and Sangre de Cristos with blowing
snow and reduced visibility likely. A Pacific cold front will cross
the region tonight with a few hours of gusty winds expected along and
behind the front. Temperatures Monday will be significantly cooler
with daytime high temperatures 5 to 15 degrees cooler than today. A
strong backdoor cold front will cross the eastern plains Monday night
and move southwestward across the entire region Tuesday. Tuesday
will be chilly area wide with highs 10 to 15 degrees below normal
east of the central mountains and 5 to 10 degrees below normal to the
west.

The cold front will stall out over southern NM/southeast AZ Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Models are in decent agreement in showing
moisture from northern Mexico overriding the stalled frontal
boundary Tuesday night and Wednesday. Periods of light rain and
elevation snow are expected across portions of southern NM Tuesday
night through Wednesday. Right now, it appears liquid equivalent
amounts will be less than one-tenth of an inch with most locations
receiving only a few hundredths. Otherwise, it will be dry across
central and northern NM Wednesday and Thursday with northwest flow
aloft and only slight moderation in temperatures.

A large upper level high will build over the interior western U.S.
Friday through Sunday with dry weather and a warming trend for the
upcoming weekend. At this time, the models are indicating above
normal daytime temperatures on Saturday and Sunday.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Big weather changes on the way, mainly in regards to temperatures,
which will plummet over the next couple of days.

This afternoon though we are enjoying another day of mild early
December temperatures, 10 to 20 degrees above normal. But that will
be the last of the mild days for much of the coming week. A storm
system crossing the Great Basin this afternoon will slide across NM
tonight into Monday, while two cold fronts combine to produce much
cooler temperatures. The first front will arrive at the western NM
border around midnight, while the second front will cross into NM
from the north Monday. Prior to the arrival of these fronts in the
northeast there could be a brief period when critical fire weather
conditions are met in the northeast. But cold air advection and
increasing stability will mitigate the critical conditions to just
an hour or two around midday or early afternoon Monday. As for
precipitation, rain and snow showers will develop over the northern
mountains late this afternoon and evening, then snow showers tonight
will bring a few inches accumulation on elevations above 8500 or
9000 feet. A few snow showers could linger into Monday with little
additional accumulation. Strong winds tonight into Monday over the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains has prompted a wind advisory. Windy
conditions will impact other west and central mountain locations and
the adjacent east slopes of the central mountain chain. Ventilation
rates will hold on for one more day, with fair or better rates
nearly everywhere.

Tuesday through Thursday will be chilly with mostly below normal
high temperatures. It will be dry aside from a little light snow
possible over Catron, Socorro and Lincoln Counties Tuesday night
into Wednesday. This would be from a weak short wave trough dropping
south into NM, creating a baroclinic zone over southern NM. Winds
will be light these three days with widespread poor vent rates. A
reinforcing shot of chilly air will filter into NM from the north
Wednesday night into Thursday.

A large ridge of high pressure will be building along the west coast
this coming week. It will drift toward us late in the week and next
weekend. This will keep our weather dry and we will see a warming
trend with highs returning to above normal Friday through Sunday.
Vent rates will remain mostly poor during this time.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until noon MST Monday for the following zones...
NMZ513>515.

&&

$$

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