Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 110552 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1152 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017


Moisture continues to seep into New Mexico, both from the subtropics
to the south and from a back door front in northeastern parts of the
state. Through early morning western New Mexico will observe
scattered showers with another axis of scattered showers extending
from central to northeastern parts of the state. Embedded
thunderstorms will be possible through dawn Friday, but the heftier
activity should take shape Friday afternoon over the western and
northern mountains of New Mexico, eventually rolling northward and
eastward into adjacent lowlands into the evening. Expect strong to
severe storms with heavy downpours reducing visibility/ceiling to
MVFR status while hail and gusty downburst winds will also be a
concern, especially along/east of the central mountain chain.



.PREV DISCUSSION...738 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017...
We coordinated with SPC and have agreed to drop Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 446 for northeast NM. Zones will be updated shortly. CHJ


.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017...
Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread and active
Friday and through the weekend before some drying pushes into west
central and northwest New Mexico early to mid next week. A few
strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts are
most likely late this afternoon and evening over portions of
northeast New Mexico. Locally heavy rain on Friday, which could
result in flash flooding, may be most likely along portions of the
central mountain chain, Northeast and Central Highlands and the East
Central Plains. High temperatures for the next several days will be
near to below average while overnight lows will be near to above


Sure doesn`t seem like the monsoon season with the recent bouts of
severe weather and the ongoing SPC outlook, which still has the
marginal/slight risk area painted over Union, and the majority of
Catron and Harding counties through this evening. Sfc front/outflow
boundary forecast to surge into the northeast, but latest HRRR has
delayed it until 00Z or after. This seems reasonable as convective
development just starting to get frisky over ne NM and over se CO.
Given the placement of forecast rainfall and surface gradient, not
suspecting there will be much of an east wind, if any, into the
middle/lower RGV tonight. May have to watch the southeast tonight,
if the boundary is driven farther south because the inherited
minimal to nil pops were left in that region.

The upslope flow associated with the boundary sets the stage for a
more active Friday/Friday night, and potential for heavy rain over
portions of the central mt chain, Northeast and Central Highlands
and East Central Plains, where theta-e values increase significantly.
Severe storms are not in the outlook though. Did up pops to match
the guidance consensus. The far southeast and far northwest may be
the areas which are least likely to receive decent rainfall. Lowered
high temperatures Friday for parts of the northeast, although did
not go as cool as the MET guidance.

Saturday and Sunday look active also with a rather flat H5 ridge in
place. Another front may impact the northeast Sunday night and again
Monday night. Some drier air may push into west central and
northwest New Mexico next Tuesday/Wednesday to trim rain chances
there. High temperatures the next 7 days will be near to below
average, with lows near to above average.


The mid-level high pressure system will migrate southeastward over
south TX today, allowing a more traditional flow of monsoon moisture
to stream north and northeastward over the forecast area. A couple
of moist back door cold fronts area also expected to dive south
southwestward through the eastern plains: one tonight and the other
Sunday night. An uptick in the coverage and wetness of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to begin Friday, with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon and
evening through Monday. With PWATs in the 1-1.6 inch range on
Friday, that day should be the wettest day overall, and Monday looks
to be a close second if Sunday night`s front comes in wet enough.
With all the moisture and some cool air advection with the fronts,
high temperatures will vary from near normal to several degrees
below normal Friday through Monday. Haines will vary around 3
through this period.  There will also be areas of poor ventilation
Friday and Saturday, but probably some improvement Sunday before
vent rates fall again on Monday.

An upper level trough approaching from the west will steer drier air
into the state from the west and southwest Tuesday through the
middle of the coming work week. The coverage and wetness of
convection will decrease with each day, and there will be a
resulting increase in high temperatures. Ventilation will probably
also improve, though some stubborn pockets of poor may linger over
southwest areas. Haines around 5 are expected across northern areas
Tuesday and Wednesday.




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