Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 211741 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1141 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Upper high center slowly slipping southward into northern Old Mexico
next 24-48 hrs with northwest flow becoming more prevalent and
stronger over NM. Isold to sct tstms to develop over the higher
terrain aft 18Z and drift into the valleys and ern plains. A few
storms will have brief MVFR cigs/vsbys, wnd gusts to 40-45kt and
small hail. Storms may persist and move north to south down the
ern plains aft 01Z.


.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017...

Very hot temperatures will continue through Thursday with some new
record highs likely. Thunderstorms will return during the afternoon
and evening today and Thursday with the best chance across northeast
areas, where a few cells could turn severe. The string of days with
triple-degree heat should come to an end in many places on Friday as
an upper level high pressure system over the area moves southward
and a gusty back door cold front plunges southwestward through the
state. Temperatures will plummet through the weekend and moisture
will gradually increase in the wake of the front allowing showers and
thunderstorms to become more widespread, especially along and east
of the central mountain chain. There will be a downtick in the
coverage of precipitation early next week as temperatures trend
upward again.



Moisture recycling over southwest areas today should be sufficient
for a mix of wet and dry storms to develop, and a shortwave trough
clipping NM in NW flow aloft will result in a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms over northeast and east central areas this afternoon
and evening. The 594 DAM mid level high pressure system over
western NM looks should start nudging southward on Thursday as a
broad upper level trough carves southward over the northern Rockies.
This will allow a drier low level flow to move over western and
central areas from the northwest, limiting spottier thunderstorms to
northeast areas on Thursday.

The big weather story this week will continue to be the oppressive
heat, which now looks to spread as far east as the Sandia and Manzano
Mountains. Temperatures look to remain just below Heat Advisory
criteria over east central and southeast areas this afternoon due to
sufficient moisture and convective cloud cover. Can`t rule out the
Roswell area for hazardous heat on Thursday as readings approach 106
degrees, but the extreme heat looks shortlived there. Models are in
fair agreement on a faster cold front on Friday...again. The front
should push up against the east slopes of the central mountain chain
during the morning to mid day hours on Friday, which should drop
temperatures around 5 to 15 degrees across the east from Thursday`s
readings. Highs in the west will probably fall 2 to 4 degrees on
Friday, which should enable a few zones to fall off the Heat Advisory
out west.

The weekend ahead looks much cooler. Highs should bottom out around
8 to 16 degrees below normal along and east of the central mountain
chain on Sunday, and within a few degrees either side of normal
farther west. While the best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will favor the central mountain chain eastward starting as early as
Friday, western ares will have a chance at some storms too;
especially along and east of the continental divide.



The upper ridge will continue to dominate Wednesday and Thursday
with near record to record heat across the Land of Enchantment. Poor
humidity recoveries, high instability with Haines 6 and Super Haines
will persist through Thursday as well. Trapped moisture will once
again spark off isolated to scattered afternoon tstm activity off the
higher terrain Wednesday. Storms will drift SE off the ctrl mtn
chain into the valleys and eastern plains Wednesday evening with
lesser storm coverage Thursday. Slower more erratic storm motion can
be expected over the Gila closer to the center of the high. Most
storms west will be dry in nature with dry lightning and erratic
gusty winds being the main concern.

Dry westerly flow will advance a bit further Wednesday and into the
eastern plains Thursday, with single digit RHs widespread Thursday.
Increasing mixing hgts will allow for stronger W/NW winds over the
west and could allow for a few hours of spotty critical fire weather
conditions for zones 101-102 during the afternoons. Vent rates will
be fair to excellent today, increasing further Thursday.

Models continue to speed up the arrival of the backdoor front across
the eastern plains Friday morning now...stalling during the day with
westerly flow aloft mixing down...then finally pushing into the Rio
Grande Valley Friday night and potentially into extreme eastern AZ
Saturday morning. The front will bring a much welcome break in the
record heat with highs falling below normal for the weekend, and
increasing sfc moisture rebounding overnight RH recoveries. Mixing
hgts and vent rates fall behind the front.

Early next week continues to show the increased sfc moisture
sparking afternoon tstm activity off the higher terrain each
afternoon. Models have been latching onto what appears to be a SW
monsoon-like flow over western NM by the middle of next week. This
would inhibit any drier westerly flow and keep afternoon tstm
activity rolling through the end of next week, at least for southern
portions of the state.


Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...

Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for the following
zones... NMZ501>509-517>521.


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