Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 192356 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
556 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered convection will continue to move east across the area
through the evening hours with potential for brief MVFR impacts at
KTCC and KLVS. Otherwise will be waiting on a backdoor front
which will progress southwest across the forecast area overnight,
bringing MVFR impacts behind the windshift at KLVS and KTCC with
potential for short-lived IFR conditions in rain. The backdoor
front will bring east canyon/gap winds to KABQ and KSAF early
Saturday morning. Thunderstorm impacts are possible Saturday
afternoon/evening at KABQ, KAEG, KSAF, KGUP and KROW.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A back door front will slide through the plains tonight. Cooler
temperatures and breezy winds will arrive behind the front.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will also increase along and
behind the front, particularly across northeast New Mexico where
heavy rain, small hail and gusty winds will be possible. The
front will push through the gaps of the central mountain chain
early Saturday resulting in gusty east canyon winds in the Rio
Grande Valley. Storms will favor areas between the Continental
Divide and the east slopes of the Central Mountain Chain on
Saturday, before shifting eastward Saturday evening. Sunday,
Monday and Tuesday continue to look very active with continued
potential for heavy rain and hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another decent crop of thunderstorms across northern and western NM
this afternoon with a few storms producing heavy rainfall.
Meanwhile, pre-frontal wind shift has pushed southward through
Clovis and Melrose. Could see some storms across this area before
the afternoon is over. Otherwise, the big story will be the back
door front that looks to currently be about mid way through eastern
Colorado. This main wind shift should move into northeast NM this
evening and plow southward through the plains overnight. In addition
to breezy winds and cooler temperatures behind the front, the
potential for showers and thunderstorms will also increase along and
behind the front, particularly across northeast NM. Heavy rain will
be a possibility as well as a few strong storms with hail and gusty
winds. The front will push thru the gaps of the central mountain
chain around sunrise Saturday. Gap winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts
to 35 mph are likely and may be higher if the front can be aided by
convective outflow boundaries. The front should near or reach the
ContDvd before the noon hour Saturday.

The focus for precipitation should shift on Saturday during the
daytime to favor areas between the ContDvd and the Central Mtn Chain
while eastern areas will tend to be too cool and stable for
convection during the day. However, the local WRF and a few other
models are hinting that the convection that begins earlier in the
day will shift eastward into the plains Saturday evening. With W/NW
steering flow, this seems plausible, and both the NAM and GFS show
it becoming increasingly unstable into the evening. Have nudged up
PoPs particularly east of the central mtn chain Saturday evening.

Still looks as though low level southeasterly flow will draw up Gulf
moisture into NM on Sunday and to a lesser extent Monday. Both days
still look active, although, perhaps not quite as active as
yesterday, especially Monday. This is due to the proximity of the
baggy low off the coast of SoCal as well as the timing of the
eventual trough passage. Today`s models show the low further west,
and then, does not bring the trough axis across the state until
Tuesday night into Wednesday. It also shows a sharper trough axis
that extends further south as well. Thus, it appears now that
Tuesday may be very active with plenty of lift and moisture in
place. Not to take away from Sunday and Monday though -- with PWATs
increasing a bit and very little storm motion on Sunday, any heavy
rain producing storms that develop with have the potential to cause
flooding problems. On Monday, the steering flow should increase, and
some drier air may work into northwest NM. Though this may mitigate
the heavy rain producing storms a bit, there will still be a chance
for some strong hail-producings storms. On Tuesday we could see some
strong or briefly severe storms as well.

Drier air will filter in behind the system across western NM,
however, a back door front will slide into the eastern plains. This
should keep the east and northeast active on Wednesday.  Both the
GFS and ECMWF show the back door front pushing west thru the gaps of
the central mountain chain Wednesday night, increasing the low level
moisture and potential for storms across western NM Thurs and
Thursday night.  Friday looks active again as a subtle trough
crosses overhead. Both models then show a high building over the
AZ/NM border into the weekend.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Storms erupted over the higher terrain by midday and will move to
the east and southeast this afternoon and evening. Showers and
storms with locally heavy rain will become more numerous this
evening and overnight from the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
and Sandia/Manzano mountains over the eastern plains, while tapering
down over most of the west. The expected shift in activity is due to
a vigorous cold front which will plunge into the eastern plains from
north to south tonight. The front will push into the Rio Grande
valley with a gusty east wind early Saturday, spreading low level
moisture and cooler air westward towards the Continental Divide.

Due in part to the cooler and more stable air mass over portions of
the northeast and east central, showers and storms with wetting rain
will be focused from the Continental Divide to the east slopes of
the central mt chain Saturday and Saturday night. The activity looks
to move generally from northwest to southeast or north to south but
somewhat slowly, so locally heavy rain will be possible. Some fair
to poor vent rates may be found from southwest to northeast over the
state Saturday.

Wetting showers and storms Sunday through Monday and into Tuesday
will be most likely west and central as a weak upper low settles
into SoCal and Arizona. High temperatures will continue to be below
average for most areas. After poor vent rates cover the southwest
and south central Sunday, vent rates Monday will return to good to
excellent overall.  Current models suggest the upper low/trough will
track slowly eastward over NM during the week with another front
next Thursday. The trough is much deeper and slower than progged 24
hrs ago so expecting the models and consequently the forecast will
continue to change.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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