Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 202337
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
537 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A Pacific cold front will move into NW NM late this evening and then
progress southeastward overnight and into the eastern plains during
the mid to late morning. Though overnight winds are expected to fall
below 10 KTS at KABQ, KAEG, KTCC and KROW, W/WSW wind gusts across
the rest of the region will range between 20 and 30 KTS. NW/WNW flow
behind the front Saturday will produce wind gusts from 20 to 30 KTS.
The Pacific front will have little moisture to work with, and VFR
conditions will prevail through Saturday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...248 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Not much excitement in the weather through Wednesday of next week.
Just a little rain or snow in the northern mountains tonight and
Saturday, otherwise it will be dry. Temperatures will bounce around
from day to day, especially in the east. The coolest days will be
Saturday and Tuesday. The end of next week could get very interesting
as the models are trending much colder for the end of the week, with
the GFS showing significant QPF along the east slopes of the central
mountains through the northeast Thursday into Friday. This would be
the first widespread snow event of the season if the GFS is right.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Much drier today as the two upper level disturbances have moved east
away from NM. Dry zonal flow has followed the disturbances with gusty
winds. The next upstream trough will approach NM tonight and cross
the state Saturday, keeping the winds going at upper levels tonight,
then breezy to windy conditions most areas Saturday. A pacific front
will sweep from west to east during the day, followed quickly by a
polar front from north to south. A little rain and snow shower
activity will be possible tonight and Saturday across the northern
mountains, otherwise it will be dry. Much cooler air will penetrate
NM Saturday and Saturday night. Freezing temperatures will be likely
in the Albuquerque metro area. Just how widespread they will be is
yet to be determined.

Dry and relatively light northwest flow will be the rule from Sunday
through Wednesday. Highs Sunday and Monday will warm to above normal
again. A short wave trough to the north will drop another back door
front into the east Monday and Monday night, making for a sharp cool
down again for Tuesday. Then just as quickly another warm up for
Wednesday.

It`s the end of the forecast period which poses the most questions
and concerns. Long range models all bring a blast of cold air into NM
from the north Thursday. The ECMWF and especially GFS also produce
QPF over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to the Sandia and Manzano
Mountains, adjacent east slopes and highlands, and the northeast
plains late Thursday into Friday. It would probably be cold enough
for snow at least in the mountains and highlands. This would be the
first widespread snow event of the season, not all that unusual for
late October though.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level trough crossing the northern and central Rockies
tonight will steer stronger winds aloft over the state causing winds
to stay strong and gusty over the higher terrain. Winds in many
lower elevation locations will also take longer than normal to
decouple from the stronger flow aloft this evening. A gusty Pacific
cold front will plow into northwest areas before sunrise with a wind
shift. The gusty northwesterly wind shift will progress gradually
southeastward through central areas in the early morning hours
Saturday, and across the eastern plains by mid day. In the wake of
the Pacific front, a gusty back door cold front will plow southward
across the eastern plains with a wind shift out of the north and
northeast Saturday afternoon.  In the wake of the fronts, widespread
fair-to-poor ventilation is expected Sunday through Tuesday, with
the exception of brief improvement possible in some places Monday.

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the west
coast and Great Basin Sunday through mid week causing the weather to
remain dry over NM. After cooler temperatures Saturday afternoon and
Sunday morning, readings will rebound Sunday afternoon through
Monday only to fall again with a gusty back door cold front that
will push through the eastern plains Monday night and into western
areas Tuesday. Western, northern and central parts of the forecast
area could have their first freeze of the season Sunday morning.

GFS and ECMWF agree on a quick-moving upper level trough that will
cause gusty southwest winds with warmer temperatures and better
ventilation to return as it approaches from the northwest on
Wednesday. The trough is forecast by these models to dive
southeastward over the state with much colder air, stronger winds
and a chance for wintry precipitation Thursday into Friday.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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