Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 281116

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
516 AM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016


Just a few mid level clouds are currently over northern and
central New Mexico early this morning. Some light to moderate
breezes from the south southwest will develop by this afternoon. A
few high-based cumulus clouds will billow over the higher terrain
in the northern half of New Mexico this afternoon. This will lead
to a few stray showers or perhaps a thunderstorm. Due to very dry
conditions beneath the cloud bases, this activity will produce
little, if any, rainfall but abrupt and gusty winds will be the
more likely outcome. The surface dryline will creep into eastern
New Mexico tonight and into early Sunday morning, leading to some
low cloud development before dawn Sunday.



Warming begins today and continues for most locales into Monday as
daytime temperatures trend above normal. Late day showers and
storms through Monday will produce very little to no measurable
precipitation...except for along the dryline on Sunday east of
the central mountain chain where a few strong to severe storms
are possible. A backdoor cold front will move southwest across the
area late Tuesday and bring much needed moisture for rounds of
showers and storms going through mid week. Temperatures will trend
below normal behind the front and stay there through late week
before warming back to near normal by next weekend.


Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper low pulling
away over the central U.S. plains with the next upper low taking
shape offshore of central California. A shortwave ridge will
develop over New Mexico today between the two systems and kick-off
a warming trend that will continue into Monday with daytime
temperatures finally reaching back to normal. Daytime heating
triggered showers and storms are forecast later today across the
higher terrain and far northern New Mexico...but will likely be
of the dry/gusty variety. More of the same Sunday as a weak and
relatively slow moving upper low approaches from the west...but
with one big difference. Gulf moisture will advect northwest into
eastern New Mexico Saturday night into Sunday and a dryline will
sharpen up by late Sunday. Deeper convection is possible along and
east of the dryline...with a few strong to severe storms. The SPC
day 2 convective outlook has our eastern plains included in the
marginal risk and would not be surprised to see that upgraded
later given the latest NAM showing significant surfaced based
instability. 0-6km bulk shear doesn`t look to be supportive of
supercell thunderstorms late Sunday...but certainly pulse-type
severe given sbcape values of 2500-3500 J/KG and lifted indices of
-8 to -11C. The dryline should shift east into Texas Monday...
although a few storms may try to initiate Monday afternoon near
the Texas border.

A backdoor cold front will progress southwest across the area late
Tuesday and through the gaps in the central mountain chain Tuesday
night. Surface dewpoint temperatures will climb behind the
backdoor front and provide much needed moisture for rounds of
showers and storms from Tuesday through Thursday as the weak upper
low moves slowly east across southern New Mexico. Our PoPs for the
midweek period have trended up from the previous forecast cycle.
High temperatures will trend down below normal behind the front
and stay there through the end of the work week before rising back
to normal next weekend as a high amplitude ridge of high pressure
develops over the mountain west.



The weather pattern today will be defined by a westerly flow aloft
that will be transitioning to more of a southwesterly direction by
afternoon.  Upstream, a couple of disturbances aloft will be moving
off of the eastern Pacific toward the west coast of the continental
U.S.  Temperatures will warm today, and while the lower layers of
the atmosphere will observe drying, there will be sufficient mid
level moisture for some high-based shower/thunderstorm development,
mostly over the northern high terrain of NM.  Any showers/storms
would produce very little, if any wetting rain and would be more
prone to emit abrupt and strong wind gusts.  Otherwise, surface/20ft
breezes this afternoon will be fairly tame from the south southwest.

Tonight the dryline separating moist air to the east and warm, dry
air to the west will become more apparent as it sharpens up over
eastern NM.  Therefore, excellent humidity recovery is expected over
the east central plains of NM tonight.  Into the daytime Sunday this
surface boundary is expected to align within the proximity of the
Pecos valley, roughly along a Roswell to Santa Rosa line.  Not only
will this create a demarcation of differing humidity, but it will
also trigger storms, some of which could turn strong to severe in
the eastern plains of NM.  To the west of the dryline, the warming
and drying trend will resume with seasonable temperatures and light
to moderate afternoon breezes.

By Monday the disturbance aloft will work into southern CA and
western AZ while the surface dryline mixes eastward into TX.  This
will leave warm and dry conditions over NM with just light to
moderate breezes prevailing.

By Tuesday a cold front will back into northeast NM, bringing
additional low layer moisture into this corner of the state with
more shower and thunderstorm potential.  Elsewhere a persistence
forecast will suffice through Tuesday afternoon, however this will
quickly change into Tuesday night and Wednesday as the back door
cold front plunges south and west through the state.

This front will spread some gusty winds through the state,
especially through canyons/gaps within the central mountain chain.
But the bigger effect will be a significant recharge in moisture
that will fuel much more widespread shower and thunderstorm
potential Wednesday and through the remainder of the work week. Some
dry storms would still likely be found toward the Continental Divide
during the latter half of the week, but areas to the east would see
a wetter variety of showers/storms.  This would yield some benefits
of cooler temperatures as well.





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