Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 051804 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1104 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOWFALL. THE OTHER
BEING ACROSS NW AREAS LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AN AREA OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF FMN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS SOME INDICATION ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CIGS WOULD
DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS FMN LATE TONIGHT. WILL
MONITOR THAT TREND CLOSELY. USED VCFG IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT AT TCC EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOWERING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS
WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME
MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE
THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT
GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY
OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER
LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS
AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD
FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR
CATEGORY TODAY.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL
RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS
RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF
SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM
AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL
RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO  SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL
SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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