Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 290548
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
FOCUS FOR IMPACTS CONTINUES ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KROW TO
KTCC THRU 16Z FRI. CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE PULLED BACK ON DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL LEFT AN
INDICATION DURING PREDAWN TO SUNRISE HOURS. A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE
SW OVER THE EAST FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
LEADING TO LCL STRONG/SVR STORMS ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.
CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THRU MIDDAY BEFORE
VIRGA DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. POTENTIAL
MODERATE GAP WIND IN STORE FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS THE FRONT
MOVES WEST DURING THE EVENING. TSRA MAY BECOME A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF RAIN/TSRA FRIDAY EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...736 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.UPDATE...
WITH DEMISE OF BOTH CONVECTIVE WATCHES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND
QUICKLY ADJUST MOST WX PARAMETERS OTHER THAN TEMPS TO MORE CLOSELY
ALIGN WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE REMOVAL OF
THE WATCH RELATED HEADLINES. ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.