Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 220539 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1139 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

A few showers remain over the SE plains possibly moving over KROW
while diminishing over the next few hours. The afternoon/evening
convection has once again kicked off E/SE outflow winds into the Rio
Grande Valley which will persist into the early morning hours at KABQ
and KSAF. Another round of afternoon convection is expected off the
central mtn chain once again moving SE possibly impacting eastern TAF
sites including KTCC and KROW. Drier NW flow will push higher sfc
moisture further east limiting the coverage of storms Thursday.
The NW flow will also mix down Thursday afternoon bringing breezy
conditions to western and central TAF sites before a backdoor front
brings in increased moisture and easterly winds to the eastern plains Thursday
night into Friday morning.



.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017...
The heat is on. Many lower elevation locations will continue to see
triple digit heat through Thursday, with 90s across many mountain
locales. The heat will finally break on Friday and Saturday thanks to
a strong back door cold front. The front will bring strong east
canyon winds to the Rio Grande Valley late Friday afternoon and into
the evening. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase over the
weekend as low level moisture moves into the state behind the front.
Like the last few days, a few strong to severe storms will be
possible each afternoon and evening.


It`s still hot out there, and the heat remains on tap for Thursday.
Given it`s already 105 degrees in Roswell today, and Thursday should
be just as hot or hotter, will go ahead and add Zone 538 to the heat
advisory. Otherwise, will keep the heat advisory as is. The back
door cold front on Friday continues to look like it will squeak
through the gaps of the central mountain chain in the afternoon,
which is keeping temperatures enough cooler in the Rio Grande Valley
to prevent additional heat advisories.  Western areas will still
need to be monitored, but seem to be trending ever-so-slightly
cooler as well. Once the front pushes through the remainder of
western NM Friday eve, that will start a period of cooler weather
with greater chances for thunderstorms.

Gusty winds and hail remain possible with storms this afternoon and
evening, particularly across the eastern plains. Looks like the very
broken line of storms extending from the Sacramento Mountains
northeastward to near Clayton will continue to track southeastward
through this evening. Meanwhile, some dry thunderstorms have been
noted across portions of western NM.

It doesn`t look to be quite as unstable on Thursday, so while there
will still be a few storms that develop, and some dry storms across
the west, overall coverage should be less than today.

The front is still expected to move into NE NM Friday morning, and
be banked up again the central mountain chain by noon. Have trended
high temps cooler across the east and somewhat so in the RGV
assuming the front squeaks in. Low level moisture behind the front,
combined with the strong upslope flow should allow isolated to
scattered storms to develop on the central mountain chain Friday
afternoon. The front should push through in earnest early Friday
evening into the RGV, and a strong east canyon wind is expected.

Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
weekend as low level moisture continues to advect into NM. Should
remain active on Monday, before storm coverage starts to trend
downward toward the middle of the week as the upper high tries to
build back northward, and then stronger westerly winds may follow.
Certainly a cooler period on tap with the cloud cover and
convection. Most eastern areas over the weekend will see below
normal temperatures.




The upper high over New Mexico will slowly retreat south and
westward Thursday and through the weekend. This will allow for
stronger and drier northwest winds to impact portions of northwest
and north central New Mexico Thursday into Friday. In the east and
south, moisture will continue to be present. Convection will be at a
minimum Thursday, and focused over the southwest and central high
terrain as well as the northeast. Cooler temperatures will invade
northeast New Mexico Friday and spread into the central and west
Saturday along with additional moisture and chances for wetting
showers and thunderstorms.

Cell motion for the rest of this afternoon and evening will be
generally to the southeast and south. Timing of a gap wind into the
RGV again tonight appears somewhat problematic with the NAM12 again
suggesting a cluster of storms will push southward down the eastern
plains tonight, so there may be an initial gap wind early this
evening into the Santa Fe/Albuquerque areas, then a stronger push
late evening/after midnight. Otherwise, overnight RH recoveries
continue to be mostly good central and east tonight with fair to
locally poor recoveries west.

Thursday will be the day with the most widespread heat as northwest
winds increase. Portions of the northwest plateau may see several
hours of critical conditions coinciding with super Haines Thursday
afternoon but areal coverage not sufficient for a watch or red flag
warning at this time. Min RH will fall into the single digits west
and central Thursday afternoon, and Thursday night will be drier
for the west and central where poor recoveries will be widespread.
Higher mixing heights Thursday lead to excellent vent rates over the
majority of the forecast areas.

Forecast models have come into better agreement on the faster speed
of the heat suppressing front. It now looks as if Friday will be a
transition day as the front pushes into the eastern plains and to
the central mt chain by late Friday afternoon, terminating the heat
wave over most of the east. However, the west will see one more day
of above average heat, and the northwest plateau and portions of the
north central mountains may see a few hours of critical conditions
superimposed with Super Haines Friday afternoon. Areal coverage
isn`t broad enough for a watch or red flag warning at this time.

Cooler and more moist over the weekend, with temperatures  near to
below average. The central and east will be most likely to see
scattered wetting rainfall from thunderstorms through next Monday. A
downturn in convective activity may come by next Tuesday as models
seem to be having trouble deciding if the upper ridge or the drier
westerlies will become the dominant feature.


Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for the following
zones... NMZ501>509-517>521-538.


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