000
FXUS64 KAMA 271736
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1136 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTS NEAR 20KTS OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE FRI-SAT SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW
THOUGH BEFORE A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT BRINGS US BACK DOWN TO EARTH.

TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
H85 MIX DOWN TECHNIQUES YIELD READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST TODAY,
WITH ERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE UPR
70S. WED MAY BE JUST A TOUCH COOLER...BUT A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONT
IN THE AREA WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO BE QUITE CALM BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR THU MORNING. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60 SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
CONTINUED TRENDS OF UPPING PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT ALONG THE 300K THETA SFC SHOULD RESULT
IN A SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM
THE SW BEGINNING FRI MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE DAY ON SAT. PTYPE
REMAINS A CONCERN AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE LOW LVLS FOR FRI BUT ARE ACTUALLY WARMER NOW ON SATURDAY AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND PULLS UP SOME WARMER
AIR.

IT APPEARS THE SE TX PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY RAIN AND NW
SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW, BUT THE
PROBLEM WILL BE WITH FORECASTING THE EXACT SW TO NE LINE THAT
SEPARATES SNOW FROM RAIN. IF WE HAD TO GUESS RIGHT NOW, IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THAT LINE WILL RUN FROM ROUGHLY VEGA TO DUMAS TO GUYMON.
AREAS TO THE SE OF WHEREVER THIS MAGIC LINE SETS UP MAY SEE SOME
SNOW, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY BE HARD TO COME BY. AREAS TO
THE NW WILL SEE SNOW, BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
LESS THAT DIRECTION THAN THOSE FURTHER SE.

THE REASON RAIN IS MORE LIKELY IN THE SE HALF OF THE PANHANDLES IS A
NEAR SFC WARM LAYER THAT COULD MELT FLAKES JUST BEFORE THEY REACH
THE SFC. LOW LVL WARM AIR WILL BE INHERENTLY SHALLOWER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WRN PANHANDLES WHICH IS WHY WE THINK THESE AREAS WILL
BE PREDOMINATELY SNOW. RIGHT NOW AMARILLO IS RIGHT ON THE CUTOFF
LINE. IF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS FURTHER NW, JUST RAIN FOR AMARILLO.
HOWEVER...IF IT SETS UP FURTHER SE, WE`LL HAVE TO LOOK OUT BECAUSE
IT APPEARS A GOOD 0.5" TO 1" OF LIQUID IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU`RE STILL
READING THIS DEEP IN THE DISCUSSION YOU PROBABLY KNOW HOW AN INCH OF
LIQUID CONVERTS TO SNOWFALL AT 10:1. RIGHT NOW WE`RE BETTING AGAINST
THAT SCENARIO, BUT WE`LL KEEP OUR EYE ON IT FOR SURE AS THE EVENT
NEARS. ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE PEELING OUT TO THE EAST
BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
COOL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/03