Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 311748
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1248 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD AND GET QUITE GUSTY AFTER 01/15Z.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

UPDATE...

SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IN THE NW CWA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE RAPIDLY RISING.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10-12KTS TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

CE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR CIMARRON COUNTY
AND A FROST ADVISORY AROUND IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLIER. WILL GO AHEAD
AND CONTINUE IT AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN
THESE AREAS NOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL SOME MORE.

ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SOME PLACES IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PANHANDLES MAY GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO ABOVE 10 MPH
BEFORE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SET IN. SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY NOW.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MODELS AGREE THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THIS LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SOME
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND
DYNAMICS WILL BE FOUND. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN ABOUT 3 PIECES
AND THEY GENERALLY AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND ENDING OF
THE RAIN FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER THEY DISAGREE ON WHERE AN UPPER LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN MEXICO FOR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER EAST
AND WEAKER. AT ANY RATE...IF THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS PAN OUT...THEN
THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WHEN THIS
UPPER LOW KICKS OUT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/05





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