Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 202344 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
544 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE KAMA
TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR. POSSIBLE
FOR FZFG OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING...WITH LIFR
OR EVEN VLIFR CIGS AND VISBYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO THE KAMA TERMINAL MID MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT
KGUY/KDHT...LIKELY KEEPING ANY FOG EAST OF THE TERMINALS. POSSIBLE
FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AT KGUY OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE MVFR
VISBYS AT KGUY FROM THE LIGHT FOG.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR NEAR THE SFC WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FREEZING FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
ACROSS MAINLY CNTRL AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. HAVE PAINTED
THE GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT
TIMES... BUT EXACTLY WHERE IS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS JUNCTURE. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUANCE OF SOME SORT OF HIGHLIGHT IF
WARRANTED.

FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE FCST TO BURN OFF SUN MORNING. WARMER
TEMPS EXPECTED AS WELL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED FAST
MOVG VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL TIMING DURG THE DAY ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA...PRECIP THREAT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS OK PNHDL AND NWRN TX PNHDL MONDAY AND AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
SLGT CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED ACROSS OK PNHDL AND NWRN TX PNHDL ON
MONDAY. CHC POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST WRN AND SRN SECTIONS OF
TX PNHDL AND LOWEST FAR NERN ZONES. PRECIP WILL START OUT AS LIGHT
RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW FROM NW TO SE MONDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE FAST MOVG NATURE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ITSELF...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ONE INCH AT ANY ONE GIVEN LOCATION. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE
WEATHER IS FCST LATE MONDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MINOR WARMING TREND WED AND THURSDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STRONG
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SLATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NO POPS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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