Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 252320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
520 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018


For the 00Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period. Wind
speeds will be light and variable through most of the beginning
of this cycle (KAMA may lag a little past 00Z), and we should
start to see a more dominate southerly component after midnight
but before sunrise. Wind speeds will be breezy/strong tomorrow
starting late afternoon, and continuing through the end of this
cycle before we see any relief tomorrow night.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 308 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/

An upper trough will push east across the Panhandles this evening
and will usher in a surface boundary tracking north to south
across the forecast area. Surface trough to develop to the lee of
the Rockies across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico
tonight. The surface trough will deepen by Monday allowing for a
20 to 30 knot LLJ to develop mainly across the western half or
third of the Panhandles around 09Z to 12Z Monday. The southwesterly
winds should mix down to the surface by mid to late morning
Monday and continue through the afternoon hours. Southerly to
southwesterly 35 to 45 knot LLJ to develop Monday night as a cold
front pushes south through the central Plains and central Rockies

Surface trough will track east across the forecast area ahead of
the cold front Tuesday as a surface low develops over southeastern
Colorado. Surface low will track southeast across the northeastern
quadrant of the Panhandles Tuesday night and into the western
portions of Oklahoma Wednesday. Cold front to push south and west
across the Panhandles Wednesday with another surface low developing
over northeastern New Mexico by Wednesday afternoon. Cold front
to push across all of the forecast area Wednesday evening and
Wednesday night. Open wave to track east out of the southwestern
states and southern Rockies Wednesday to push across the
Panhandles by Wednesday evening. Most of any precip will remain
mainly north and east of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening. Kept the forecast dry for now through the
extended period as both the GFS and ECMWF mostly dry. Upper ridge
will build in over the Panhandles Thursday with southwesterly
upper flow Friday through the upcoming weekend.


Critical fire weather conditions are forecast to develop Monday
mainly across the western Panhandles and some portions of the
central Panhandles. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected
elsewhere. 20 foot downsloping southwesterly winds will increase
to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph and minimum
humidities will be near 8 to 13 percent. RFTI`s are forecast to be
around 3 to 6 mainly along and west of a Guymon to Amarillo line.

Mainly elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the
western Panhandles Tuesday with RFTI`s forecast to be near 1 to 3
and southwesterly 20 foot winds will be near 15 mph or 15 to 20
mph with occasional gusts near 25 mph.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across
much of the Panhandles Wednesday, Friday and Saturday with RFTI`s
forecast to be near 1 to 3.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Deaf Smith...Oldham...Potter...

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...

OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.



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