000
FXUS64 KAMA 112110
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
410 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...STRONG WINDS AND ONGOING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVER THE AMA CWA BUT ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
OF AROUND 70 MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. WINDS
UPSTREAM OVER KS /PARTICULARLY AT DDC WHERE THEIR LATEST OB CAME IN
WITH A GUST AT 55 MPH/ CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OKLAHOMA MESONET OBS INDICATE GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND AS THE SPEED MAX MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE EVEN MORE. HAVE TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF CANCELING THE
CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY INSTEAD OVER THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THIS AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE IN NOT SEEING SUSTAINED 40 MPH WINDS AND/OR WIND GUSTS AT
58 MPH IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THIS THINKING. OVERALL STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY.

BESIDES THE ONGOING WIND ISSUES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER
SOUTH...THIS WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER OVER THE AREA. EARLIER THE
INHERITED RED FLAG WARNING THAT COVERED THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
TRIMMED TO EXCLUDE THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. DESPITE THE
FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF AMARILLO...WILL LET THE GOING RED FLAG
WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT AS THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF FIRES
REPORTED IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. IT WILL ALSO BE
COOLER WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

CLK

.LONG TERM...
THE OVERALL THEME THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN OVERHEAD. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL INDUCE A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
BACK INTO THE 60S. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SPLIT WITH THE WESTERN PIECE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE EAST BUT WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE
AREA FRIDAY. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON SOME LIGHT QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND APPROACH WEST TEXAS OVER THE LATER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS...ALTHOUGH HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING AS THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 9 PM DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND
5 TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20 MPH BY MID MORNING. ALTHOUGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING
WHEN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE TEXAS AND PANHANDLES
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. BEYOND THURSDAY
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

CLK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                24  52  28  64  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  26  55  26  69  32 /  10   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              22  49  26  64  32 /  10   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  28  54  34  66  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              26  53  29  68  34 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  24  53  26  64  34 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               28  56  31  66  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 21  51  24  65  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  24  54  26  67  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                24  52  26  63  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                31  54  25  68  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   27  52  31  62  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                31  55  29  66  37 /  10   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              32  58  31  68  37 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...GRAY...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$