000
FXUS64 KAMA 280928
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
428 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An upper high over the Panhandles will remain through the weekend.
A frontal boundary across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle or
the far northern portions of the Texas South Plains region will
allow for a weak upslope surface flow as abundant low level
moisture prevails across the forecast area. Forecast model
soundings indicate precipitable water values of 1.38 inches to
1.78 inches today through Tuesday which is at the 90th percentile
or higher for the Panhandles for the end of July and the first few
days of August. The mid level flow is expected to be weak, mainly
from the west and southwest 5 to 10 knots, today through the
weekend indicating slow moving convection. The slow moving
stronger storms will be capable of producing locally very heavy
rainfall and possible flooding/flash flooding concerns. Held off
issuing a Watch for now as confidence low as far as timing and
coverage of convection is concerned. Therefore, placement of a
Watch uncertain at the moment although a Watch could be needed
later.

The upper high shifts further south and west by early and middle
of next week allowing for northwest flow aloft to bring shortwave
energy to track south and east out of the Rockies and across the
Panhandles. Convection should increase during the first half of
next week across the forecast area. The possibility for some
storms to become strong to marginally severe exists as better
shear forecast early next week. Drier conditions possible during
the latter half of next week.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                91  69  91  67  90 /  20  20  30  30  30
Beaver OK                  90  70  90  68  86 /  20  40  20  50  40
Boise City OK              86  65  89  65  85 /  30  30  30  40  30
Borger TX                  93  72  94  71  92 /  30  30  30  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              94  70  94  69  93 /  20  20  30  20  30
Canyon TX                  92  68  91  67  90 /  20  10  30  20  30
Clarendon TX               92  70  91  69  90 /  20  20  30  30  30
Dalhart TX                 90  67  93  67  90 /  30  30  20  20  30
Guymon OK                  90  69  90  67  87 /  20  40  30  40  40
Hereford TX                93  68  93  67  91 /  10   5  10  20  30
Lipscomb TX                92  70  91  69  88 /  30  30  20  30  30
Pampa TX                   90  69  90  68  89 /  30  30  30  40  30
Shamrock TX                93  71  92  70  90 /  30  30  30  30  30
Wellington TX              95  73  94  71  92 /  20  30  30  30  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
     zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...Oldham.

OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
     zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$

29/11