Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 012347 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
647 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KAMA.

AT KDHT AND KGUY, HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP 10Z-17Z AND 07Z-16Z, RESPECTIVELY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
LIFR CONDITIONS COULD EVEN BRIEFLY DEVELOP.

A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT,
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KGUY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA TO ALSO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KAMA AFTER 20Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

JACKSON

&&

.UPDATE...
CUMULUS ARE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT THESE TOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES. 0000 UTC
KAMA RAOB DATA SHOW A WEAKER CAP THAN YESTERDAY, BUT IT`S STILL QUITE
APPARENT. APART FROM SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE,
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH NO BACKGROUND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRESENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, IT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO CLARENDON LINE.

WE`LL LIKELY HAVE TO DO A FORECAST UPDATE ONCE THE NEWEST MODEL AND
UPPER AIR DATA ROLL IN AS IT APPEARS THAT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ




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