Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 222346
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
646 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AROUND 07Z TO 09Z SATURDAY...AND
THEN ACROSS THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES AFTER 08Z TO 10Z
SATURDAY. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR TO IFR OR
POSSIBLY LIFR AFTER 01Z TO 04Z SATURDAY AND THEN VFR AGAIN AFTER 14Z
TO 19Z SATURDAY AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

A PACIFIC UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER GREAT BASIN AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION SOUTH OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT HAS ALLOWED
FOR TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S DESPITE THE STUBBORN
STRATUS DECK OVERHEAD. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE TONIGHT...A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPINGE UPON THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE AS WELL AS TO INCREASE THE UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDES ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT. AS THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE TONIGHT...INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES CAN ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS PEAT VALUES INCREASE TO
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. SINCE SOILS ARE ALREADY
SATURATED FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL AS WELL AS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS...GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND
WILL LET IT CONTINUE UNTIL IT EXPIRES LATE SATURDAY. BESIDES THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THE SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AS
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...DEEPLY VEERING WIND PROFILES
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW CAN GENERATE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WHERE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION SO STORMS CAN RE-FIRE LATER IN THE DAY. BUT THE
MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND THEREFORE LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BUT IF
THE CLOUD COVER THINS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR STRONGER DIURNAL
HEATING...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE MAKING IT IDEAL
FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN CO SUNDAY. A SURFACE LEE
LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER EASTERN NM...WITH DRY AIR RETURNING TO THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES. EXPECT THE DRYLINE TO MIX A BIT FURTHER
EASTWARD SUNDAY...WHICH WILL FOCUS STORM INITIATION GENERALLY OVER
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH MORE BY MEMORIAL DAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING FURTHER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES CAN SEE A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRYLINE MIXES OVERHEAD. DESPITE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

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