Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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102
FXUS64 KAMA 151633
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1133 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night and Thursday
afternoon/evening. Although the chances are very low at this time,
cannot entirely rule out a severe thunderstorm or two in the
western/central Oklahoma Panhandle Wednesday evening. Damaging winds
would be the primary hazard.

- Warmer than normal temperatures are expected to return Wednesday
and Friday through at least Tuesday. Triple digit heat will be
possible across the eastern combined Panhandles, Palo Duro
Canyon, and portions of the Canadian River Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Water vapor imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs across the
Rockies and Pacific Northwest this morning with a pair of ridges off
the West Coast and over the Southeastern US. Forecast soundings for
today show a subsidence inversion across much of the Panhandles
which suggests a mostly if not entirely dry day. Expecting
temperatures to warm into the low to mid-90s.

The previously mentioned Southeastern US ridge will expand westward
into the Southern Plains through the day on Wednesday which will
help warm the Panhandles into the mid to upper-90s. Latest NBM
probabilities give parts of the Canadian River Valley and central
Oklahoma Panhandle a 10% to 30% chance to reach or slightly exceed
100 degrees.  Additionally, humidity should stick around through the
afternoon to some extent which would make temperatures feel 1 to 3
degrees warmer--particularly across the eastern combined Panhandles--
resulting in some locations reaching 100 degrees via Heat Index if
not by just the temperature.

A cold front is expected to move into the Panhandles later in the
afternoon/early evening hours of Wednesday with a cool and moist
airmass behind it, but models diverge significantly regarding its
progression through Wednesday night. Nonetheless, a weak disturbance
is favored to clip the northern Panhandles Wednesday evening which
may be a catalyst for thunderstorm development in SE Colorado/SW
Kansas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Cannot rule out a rogue 60 mph wind gust
or two with this activity given that moderate instability will be
sustained with favorable DCAPE values.

This activity and the associated outflow they produce should help
keep the front moving as opposed to the global model`s solution of
stalling the front out overnight. As the southerly low-level jet
intensifies in the evening and at least early overnight period,
additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible across much of
the Texas Panhandle. However, guidance shows that the LLJ will veer
later in the overnight period and become less perpendicular to the
boundary suggesting that additional development behind the boundary
will become less likely with time.

The NBM reflects this scenario well; the higher PoPs are kept in the
Oklahoma Panhandle (50% to 75%), decreasing with southward extent--
though it does give 10% to 45% PoPs for the Texas Panhandle.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Considerable uncertainty exists for Thursday`s forecast which
revolves around what happens with the potentially outflow-driven
cold front from Wednesday night. As previously stated, currently
favoring the solution shown by CAMs that moves the front through
much, if not all of the Panhandles by Thursday morning before
stalling out. The NBM currently has highs in the upper-80s to mid-
90s across the southern Texas Panhandle which is mostly consistent
with the global model`s solution of stalling the front out in the
central Texas Panhandle. However, if the front pushes through as
some CAMs suggest, those highs could be 5 to 10 degrees too warm for
places like Borger, Amarillo, Boys Ranch, and Pampa.

The quasi-stationary boundary will likely retreat to some degree
through Thursday before showers thunderstorms are favored to develop
along the boundary again in the late afternoon/early evening hours.
Instability in the vicinity of the front will wane through the
afternoon as daytime heating increases the LCLs while mid-level
temperatures warm, such that a merely weakly unstable environment
may remain by the time thunderstorms develop. That said, won`t be
able to rule out some strong wind gusts and heavy rain with this
activity. The NBM has 20% to 60% PoPs across the CWA, which again,
is assuming the front stalls out in the central Texas Panhandle. If
the front doesn`t do that, then those PoPs would need to be shifted
southward into the southern and perhaps central Texas Panhandle.

Friday and beyond, an upper-level ridge will continue to build over
the Southern Plains. With increased subsidence over the region and
warming temperatures aloft, we will embark on a warming and drying
trend. Triple digit heat will be possible late this weekend and into
early next week across the eastern combined Panhandles, the Canadian
River Valley, and Palo Duro Canyon.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Breezy
winds are expected this afternoon but will weaken some tonight.
Winds will turn southwesterly Wednesday morning.

Vanden Bosch.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52