000
FXUS64 KAMA 092322 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
522 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.AVIATION...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AVIATION CONCERNS WITH THE 10/00Z TAF PACKAGE.
FIRST...LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
UPSLOPE WINDS TRANSITIONING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION. ISENTROPIC FIELDS
SUPPORT MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS...PARTICULARLY AT KDHT AND KGUY. THIS
MASS OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS FORECAST CONCURS WITH THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER
OUTLOOK FOR THIS AREA.

SHOULD ANY CLEARING OCCUR OVERNIGHT...FOG AND LOW VISIBILITIES MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...AND COULD BECOME A GREATER
CONCERN BY THE WEDNESDAY MORNING AIR TRAFFIC PEAK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

NUNEZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 117 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RETREATING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
STOPPED THE SOUTHWEST PROGRESSION AS OF 19Z TODAY ALONG A CAMPO CO TO
SHAMROCK TX LINE. EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN MOVING BACK TO
THE NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY PRTLY
CLDY TO MSTLY CLDY TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS DEFINITELY SHOWING A
SLOWER...DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW BY THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL BACK OFF JUST A BIT MORE ON POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY AND TREND TOWARD LESS SNOWFALL. LATER SHIFTS
CAN REMOVE POPS AND QPF ALTOGETHER FROM THE THURSDAY PERIOD...HOWEVER
STILL RELUCTANT TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY FROM THE GRIDS. SINCE THE
MODELS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION YESTERDAY AND SINCE THE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST HAS NOT YET BEEN SAMPLED BY THE UPPER
AIR NETWORK AND SINCE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD...FEEL
THAT THE MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL AT ALL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
MODELS COMING BACK TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
THEREBY A WETTER SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN IN LATER RUNS. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES OR MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD GRIDS.
UPPER RIDGE TO THEN BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING POSSIBLY TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY BEFORE
TEMPS REBOUND ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AFTER
THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/16