Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

000
FXUS64 KAMA 250426
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1026 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours at all TAF
sites. Northerly prevailing winds expected to continue through
18Z Saturday, shifting easterly and southeasterly thereafter.
Cigs will be high clouds SCT-BKN 25kft. Sky cover expected to
diminish later into the night. Gusty winds 15 to 25kts possible
through 12Z.

Weber

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 256 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper high over Baja and northwest Mexico will provide a dry
northwesterly flow aloft across the Panhandles through the
weekend. A short wave will track southeast across the forecast
area Saturday, however only lee enhanced high level cloudiness can
be expected. Cannot rule out some mid level clouds Saturday and
perhaps some virga associated with this short wave, however
confidence low at this time. Cold front will move through the
Panhandles later today and this evening with a cool surface ridge
building into the Panhandles behind the front tonight and Saturday.
Lee surface trough to develop by Saturday afternoon across
eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico which should begin to
deepen by early next week in response to an approaching closed
upper low. The closed upper low to track east out of California
and across the Great Basin region Monday and Monday night and then
across the Four Corners region and the central and southern
Rockies Tuesday.

Prefer the slower and further north ECMWF solution with regards
to the track of the closed upper low over the more progressive and
further south GFS solution. The ECMWF keeps the bulk of the
precip Tuesday night just north of the forecast area while the GFS
brings the precip across the Oklahoma and far northern Texas
Panhandles. Nevertheless, will maintain slight chance POPs across
the far northern portions of the forecast area Tuesday night. The
closed upper low should weaken into an open wave Wednesday as it
tracks across the central Plains states and Midwest states the
middle of next week. Long wave trough to push south and east out
of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies during the latter
half of next week and across the Plains states. Confidence low at
this time if any precip associated with this upper trough. Cold
front forecast to move through the Panhandles late Monday night or
early Tuesday with another cold front Wednesday night. Record high
temps possible/likely Monday with the warm and dry downsloping
surface flow.

Schneider

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to marginally critical fire weather conditions are
expected Monday across much of the Panhandles. Minimum afternoon
humidities are forecast to be in the 10 to 20 percent range across
most of the Panhandles with 20 foot downsloping southwesterly
winds of around 15 to 20 mph with gusts near 25 mph Monday
afternoon. No elevated or critical fire weather conditions are
expected Tuesday through the end of next week.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                43  65  39  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  39  62  36  73  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              37  63  37  74  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  44  64  40  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              41  65  37  74  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  42  65  37  72  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               47  66  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 40  64  36  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  39  63  37  74  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                42  65  37  72  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                42  63  37  72  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   42  63  39  71  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                46  66  38  71  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              47  68  39  72  42 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/11



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.