Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 110447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1047 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016


For the 06Z TAFs:

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals throughout the valid TAF
period. The main concern for this period will be the potential for
low level wind shear. Models have been consistent the last several
runs showing a jet around 1000 feet with 50-55 knots. Surface wind
speeds are forecast to be around 15-20 knots tonight, and this will
be enough for speed shear. However, there isn`t much (if any)
directional shear during this time period. Watch for a low level jet
around one thousand feet from roughly 06Z to 12Z. Better chances for
low level wind shear will be for KAMA. Otherwise, it will be breezy
today with high clouds.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 846 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/


VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with scattered to
broken high clouds 25-30kft. Winds will be mainly out of the south
through about 12-15z and then will shift westerly and northwest with
the passage of a cold front. Winds will be 10-20kts with gusts to
30kts, and should diminish to about 5-15kts after 21z. Low level wind
shear may be an issue through about 06z as a 45-55kt jet about 1kft
agl will be in place.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

Several cold fronts are the focus for the forecast for the next 7
days. Unseasonably warm temperatures Today will quickly be replaced
by cooler temperatures Sunday as another cold front sweeps across the
Panhandles. High temperatures are expected to range in the mid 50s to
lower 60s. We quickly rebound on Monday with temperatures area wide
possibly getting to the 60 degree mark while the southwestern Texas
Panhandle pushes into the mid 60s once again.

On Tuesday, another cold front pushes into the Panhandles with a
little more cold air behind it. This will help to keep our high
temperatures in the 40s across the NE with possibly the far SW
reaching the 60 degree mark. The warmer temperatures across the SW
will be more of a product of the surface winds returning to the south
and southwest much quicker than locations north and east.

Models diverge in the extended portion of the forecast with respect
to timing of fronts and moisture availability. A greater push of
colder air is expected to move into the Panhandles early on Wednesday
morning. This will give us much cooler daytime highs with near
freezing highs across the NE to lower 50s across the SW. This front
is expected to move through precip free. Models show warm air
advection surging northward Thursday and Thursday night to bring
warmer temperatures to the area. With 850mb temperatures of 16 to 18C
over the Panhandles on Friday, we could see highs in the 60s across
the southern Texas Panhandle. Forecast models show that there could
be a chance for precip across the eastern Panhandles early on in the
day with the majority of the precip chances remaining east and north
of the area. We could easily be stuck in the dry slot with this
system. High temperatures on Saturday gets tricky due to the timing
of another arctic surge pushing into the Panhandles. The front looks
dry initially with possible chance for precip over the weekend. Kept
chances low for now given run to run discrepancies.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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