Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 250532

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1232 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

06Z TAF Cycle

Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase today and
tonight across the Panhandles with the activity affect the three
TAF sites mainly after about 08Z to 12Z today and continuing
through 06Z Tuesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected
at all three TAF sites through the TAF forecast period with
possibly some IFR or LIFR conditions in and near the stronger
showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be from the south and
southeast around 10 to 15 knots but will shift to the east and
northeast 5 to 15 knots after 00Z Tuesday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 634 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

For the 00z TAFs...
Only isolated showers and a few thunderstorms being detected by
KAMA radar at this time.  Warm mid-level temperatures are
depicted overhead with RAP40 analysis depicting 500 mb
temperatures -6 degrees Celsius.  Will keep thunder out of the
near-term forecasts and monitor closely.  Otherwise, moist
southeast surface winds will continue, with MVFR ceilings
returning this evening.  MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings expected
to prevail late tonight and through the day on Monday.  Numerous
rain showers are expected, with thunder becoming more likely
Monday afternoon with approach of cold front.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

Isolated showers continue to pop up and stream northeastward
across the area this afternoon. This will continue to be the case
through the afternoon and into the early evening. The TTU WRF
seems to be handling this morning`s line and the scattered showers
the best of the CAMs, although seems slightly displaced too far
northward. CAMs and hi-res models including the TTU WRF indicate
later tonight a series of shortwaves will cross into the area and
re-spark more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Expect the
precip to congeal and train over the central to eastern zones
which could bring heavy rainfall amounts to the area. At this
time, while PWAT values are still remaining above 90th percentile, have
held off from issuing another Flood Watch product as think this
situation will best be handled with isolated flood advisories if
necessary. Severe threat with these storms will be very low
for hail or winds. Flooding issues will be the main concern.

A cold front is still expected to make its way across the area
Monday and bring more chances for heavy rain. Medium and long
range guidance suggests after the frontal passage that precip
chances will continue to plague the area due to shortwaves. The
end of the week finally will see some dry weather as zonal flow
takes over as a closed low lifts out of the far southwest US.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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