Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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529
FXUS64 KAMA 222344 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
544 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, wind will be the main weather element for this
fcst cycle. Periods of high level clouds tonight will diminish by
mid to late Thursday morning. A vigorous upper level storm system
will move into the cntrl Rockies and adjacent plains states on
Thursday, well north of our fcst area. Winds will increase and
become strong and gusty by late morning Thursday and continue
through the afternoon hours. An Aviation Weather Warning will
likely become necessary at KAMA during this time period. No
precipitation is expected through the end of this fcst cycle.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong winds and fire weather conditions are the main concerns for
the forecast period. Latest 22/12Z model and numerical guidance
continues to show a developing low pressure system moving
northeast into SW Kansas by Thursday. Out ahead of the the main
cold front with the developing surface low pressure system, an
upper level trough will work in to New Mexico which will help to
establish a strong west to southwesterly flow downstream of the
trough axis. A High Wind Watch is currently in effect for Thursday
afternoon across the central and western Panhandles with gusts
over 60 MPH at times. Will highlight the fire weather concerns for
Thursday in the Fire Weather section. A cold front will move
across the region late Thursday night through early Friday
morning. This will shift winds to the northwest and decrease to
10-15 kts by Friday morning. High temperatures on Thursday will
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s in the NW Panhandles to
lower 80s in the SE TX Panhandle.

As we go from Friday through the weekend, a zonal upper level flow
in-conjunction with northwesterly flow in the wake of the cold
front will bring temperatures back to near of slightly below
normal for late February. As we go toward Sunday evening through
early next week, a series of perturbations along a low amplitude
sinusoidal flow will develop across the Panhandles. An isolated
shower is possible for the northern TX and OK Panhandles toward
the end of the forecast period. Otherwise, tranquil weather
conditions are expected to continue with high temperatures above
average.

Meccariello

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions across the eastern Panhandles to
extremely critical fire weather conditions across the central and
western Panhandles are expected through out the day on Thursday.
Latest 22/12Z data shows consensus of 850-700 hPa thermal ridge
will set up with its axis from west central Texas into east
central Oklahoma. In-conjunction, a zonal 100-120 kt 250 hPa zonal
jet streak will set up across New Mexico which will provide a
large domain of upper level divergence across the Panhandles.
Forecast model soundings shows 700 mb winds of 40-60 kts across
the Panhandles, and especially once the mid and high level clouds
clear out of the western and central Panhandles, deep mixing is
expected to bring down those stronger winds in the afternoon hours
as the main mid level trough height gradients is quite steep,
especially across western areas. Min RH values Thursday will drop
as low as 8 percent. RFTI values will range between 5 and 8, with
highest values across the western Panhandles.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for the SW TX
Panhandle during the day on Friday as min RH values will be
between 10-15%.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...
     Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...
     Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...
     Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

     High Wind Watch Thursday afternoon for the following zones:
     Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...
     Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...
     Sherman.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday for the
     following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     High Wind Watch Thursday afternoon for the following zones:
     Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$



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