Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 240023 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
623 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
The cold front is moving through the OK Panhandle and heading into
the northern Texas Panhandle. Have adjusted wind grids to account
for a slightly faster wind shift across our fcst area for this
evening. Remaining weather elements are plausible at this time.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 543 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, west winds will diminish early. However, a cold
front will move across all terminal sites this evening, with
gusty north winds for a few hours or so in its wake. No
precipitation is expected through late Friday afternoon.

Andrade

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 304 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Broad upper level trough with strong mid and upper level jet
currently located over the Great Basin. Very dry subsiding air is
streaming across the Panhandles as 60 to 70 knot 500 mb jet
crosses the southern Plains. A surface low continues to strengthen
over southwestern KS and will help push a cold front into the
Panhandles later this evening. West-Southwest winds have
increased to 25-35 knots sustained with gusts around 40 to 45
knots common across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The
stronger winds are located across the western Panhandles. Fire
weather continues to be a major concern with current RH values
ranging from 9 to 12 percent. Decoupling is expected to take place
around 00z-01z and will help to reduce wind speeds ahead of the
cold front. The front will gradually shift winds from SW to N this
evening. The OK Panhandle will be the first to go to the north
around 00z-03z with the TX Panhandle between 03z and 09z. Wind
speeds behind the front are expected to be 10 to 20 knots with
gusts to 25 knots. Temperatures on Friday and Saturday are
expected to be in the high 40s to high 50s as cool air clips the
area behind the front. Elevated fire weather will be possible
mainly across the western Panhandles Friday and Saturday with
near critical conditions in the far southwestern Texas Panhandle
Friday afternoon.

As the upper level trough shifts east of the area, more zonal flow
is expected across the Rockies. Models have been trending cooler
over the weekend with a considerable difference in model guidance
on Sunday. The GFS/NAM are developing a pronounced shortwave at
500mb along with resulting surface cyclogenesis Sunday evening
while the ECMWF/Canadian model keeps the flow much less amplified.
Sided with ECMWF more for now keeping pops out of forecast Sunday
and keeping temperatures warmer Sunday and Monday. However, if
trend is towards GFS/NAM, may need to add some pops/lower temps
as forcing along cold front and more pronounced upper level
dynamics would support.

Numerical guidance does continue to suggest another broad trough
developing towards the early part of next week over the western
CONUS. This may lead to more fire/wind concerns on Monday and
Tuesday as another strong mid level jet moves across the area.
Precip chances will be very minimal across the Panhandles through
the extended. However, did introduce a slight chance of showers
ahead of a cold front late Tuesday across the northeastern zones.

Ward

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions will
continue into the early evening hours today. Winds will be
southwesterly at 25 to 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots through
00z this evening. The strongest winds will be across the western
zones. A cold front will gradually shift winds from SW to N this
evening. This will occur in the OK Panhandle between 00z and 03z,
and between 03z and 09z across the TX Panhandle. Winds behind the
front will be in the 10 to 20 knot range with gusts to 25 knots.
RH values will stay in the 8 to 15 percent range through 03z this
evening increasing to 25 to 50 percent by 06z with the higher
values behind the front.

Elevated fire weather can be expected across the western Texas
Panhandle on Friday with near critical conditions in the
southwestern TX Panhandle. RH values will drop to 12 to 20 percent
with 20 ft winds near 15 to 20 mph with gusts near 30 mph possible
in the southwestern Texas Panhandle.

Elevated Fire weather conditions can be expected across the
western zones on Saturday with 20ft winds around 15 to 20 mph and
min RH values between 16 and 20 percent.

Fire weather may be an issue once again towards the early part of
next week, with the best chance for critical conditions coming on
Tuesday ahead of the next upper level trough.

Ward

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf
     Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...
     Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Donley...Gray...Hansford...
     Hutchinson...Ochiltree...Roberts.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...Moore...Oldham...
     Potter...Randall...Sherman.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Texas.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$



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