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000
FXUS64 KAMA 061108 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
508 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... PATCHY FOG HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CAUSE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET AT ALL SITES. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO CHANGE DRASTICALLY IN THE NEXT
7 DAYS AS PERIODIC UPR LEVEL SHRTWVS HELP USHER IN BRIEF COOL DOWNS
WITH A ROUGH COLD FRONT PERIODICITY OF 2-4 DAYS. THE FRONTS OF
CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN LIKELY AGAIN ON TUE. THESE FRONTS WILL
PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER IN BETWEEN.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S TODAY WITH A MODEST SRLY
BREEZE EXPECTED. THE FAR NE PANHANDLES WILL DEAL WITH A FEW LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING BEFORE SKIES CLEAR BY LATE MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER ON COLD FRONTAL TIMING TOMORROW, BUT
STILL GIVE A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLES ENOUGH TIME BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TO MIX TO NEAR H7...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
EXACT FRONTAL TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL IN HOW WARM THE SRN PANHANDLES
CAN GET...WITH 80 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE FRONT HOLDS OFF
LONG ENOUGH. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT MODEL SLOW BIAS ON THESE
FRONTS...HAVE TRENDED FASTER FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE, MEANING ANY 80S
WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES.

HAVE LEFT GOING HIGH END CHC POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING AS
THE MOIST POST FRONTAL AIRMASS LOOKS PRIMED FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS
A SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH. THE NEAR SFC POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN`T
LOOK TO REALLY COOL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT
AND FOR ONCE THE H85 FRONT LOOKS TO BE VERTICALLY STACKED ABOVE THE
SFC FRONT...MEANING PRECIP SHOULD MAKE A DIRECT TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW WITH MINIMAL FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POTENTIAL. THE STRONG
SHRTWV HAS US A BIT CONCERNED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS...BUT GIVEN THE
WARMER GROUND AND MARGINAL SFC TEMPS...WILL TEMPER ACCUMULATION
EXPECTATIONS FOR NOW. PRECIP SHOULD BE ON IT`S WAY OUT BY NOON ON
SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPS LINGERING ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
TEMPS WILL WARM THIS PERIOD WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ANOTHER SHRTWV/COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS AROUND THE TUE TIMEFRAME AND
GIVEN SIMILARITIES WITH RECENT LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCING SYSTEMS...
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR TUE NIGHT. TUE MAY OR MAY NOT
SNEAK IN AS A WARM DAY BEFORE THE FRONT...WITH COOLER TEMPS THEN A
GOOD BET ON WED. TEMPS SHOULD START WARMING AGAIN BY THU.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE.
SOUTHERLY TWENTY FOOT WINDS MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL AT TIMES AROUND 15
MPH...BUT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
TIPPED THE SCALE TO PLAY IT SAFE AND ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY GET TO US IN TIME TO KEEP RH VALUES UP AND
PRECLUDE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE NOTED BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK THOUGH TUESDAY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
IN CASE THE COLD FRONT FORECAST FOR THAT DAY MOVES THROUGH SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD
OF IT.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/09