Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221609 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1009 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
STRATUS AND FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED. FULL SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
PRODUCED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THE POSITION OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA TODAY. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
AMENDMENTS NEEDED.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AMA TAF SITE EARLY IN THIS
FORECAST...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL MAKE A CEILING.
THEREFORE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE THIS
MORNING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE AMA TAF SITE.
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AHEAD OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THINK THAT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...SO
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE FOG EXPAND SOME.

AFTER THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF TEXAS ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
AS WELL BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
REACHED SUNDAY MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. SO DRY LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME NEXT WEEK TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/11





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