Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 290921
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
421 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are currently pushing through portions
of the TX/OK Panhandles as a weak shortwave moves through the
downstream side of the desert SW upper ridge per water vapor
imagery. This upper level feature will continue southeast through
the early morning hours moving away from our zones by 15z. Fine
scale boundaries left over from this mornings convection along
with a lee low over the area will help aid in sfc moisture
convergence this afternoon and evening resulting in another round
of thunderstorms. The widest coverage of storms will largely
depend on where the stationary boundary resides at the time of max
insolation. Current thinking is somewhere along or just north of
the I-40 corridor. Once storms initiate... MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg and 25-35kts of effective bulk shear will be
sufficient for a few strong to low- end severe multicells and
perhaps some supercellular structures. Storms should push to the
southeast through the evening based on continued northwesterly
flow aloft. There is some uncertainty how long the clouds from
this mornings convection will linger...which may keep max temps
lower than guidance and reduce max buoyancy.

Going into Saturday...the upper level ridge continues slowly
pushing back eastward. Still think a few diurnally driven storms
could get into our western zones Saturday afternoon although there
is disagreement amongst the numerical guidance. Otherwise...the
rest of the weekend into next week looks mostly dry as the ridge
begins to amplify some and move over the Southern Plains. Our
western zones could see isolated storms towards the middle and end
of the week. Temperatures will be on the rise with many locations
approaching the triple digit mark by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                95  66  95  69  97 /  20  40  20  10  10
Beaver OK                  91  66  96  70 100 /  30  30  20  20   5
Boise City OK              90  61  95  65  97 /  20  30  20  20  10
Borger TX                  96  69  98  73  99 /  20  40  20  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              96  65  97  68  98 /  20  40  20  20  10
Canyon TX                  95  67  95  67  96 /  20  40  20  10   5
Clarendon TX               96  68  96  69  98 /  20  40  20  10  10
Dalhart TX                 94  63  96  66  97 /  20  40  20  20  10
Guymon OK                  92  65  98  69 100 /  20  30  20  10   5
Hereford TX                96  68  95  67  96 /  20  40  20  10  10
Lipscomb TX                92  68  96  71  98 /  30  30  20  20   5
Pampa TX                   94  66  95  70  97 /  30  40  20  10  10
Shamrock TX                96  68  97  69  98 /  30  40  20  10   5
Wellington TX              98  70  99  71  99 /  20  40  20  10   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/11


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