Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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362
FXUS64 KAMA 122213
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
413 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS ON
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO TRY AND HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE TENDENCY OVER THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO HAS BEEN FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO COME IN
WARMER...AND DEW POINTS TO COME IN LOWER. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAKING SUNDAY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS AROUND 60. NEXT THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN EVEN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TOMORROW MORNING IS THE
ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER TYPE IN THIS FORECAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES COULD SEE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT EACH OF THE DAYS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE BE
MORE DEPENDENT ON AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES TOMORROW AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                30  68  36  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  25  57  32  59  30 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              30  70  33  59  30 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  32  67  39  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              29  71  35  62  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  30  69  37  62  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               30  64  38  62  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 29  72  33  60  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  28  68  33  60  31 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                30  70  35  62  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                27  57  34  60  31 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   29  63  36  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                29  59  38  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              30  61  39  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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