Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 292050
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
350 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAS MAINTAINED DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. FULL SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LED TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
TO CLIMB TO NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT BUT UNLIKE LAST NIGHT WERE SOME
LOCATIONS DIPPED TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...THE AREA SHOULD SEE A
SEASONAL COOL NIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH TRANQUIL FALL WEATHER
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE COOL AIR UPSTREAM IS NOT EXPECTED TO FILTER
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE EVENING. THUS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TYPICALLY FAVORED COLD SPOTS. A FROST
ADVISORY OR EVEN A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE APPROACH AND EVOLUTION OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THIS UPPER TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL ON
HALLOWEEN WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BUT AT LEAST TRICK OR TREATERS WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG
WINDS IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN IN
EARNEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WILL BE
DRAWN INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
HAVE INCREASED POPS LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE RAIN
LOOKS MORE LIKELY. HAVE MAINTAINED POPS MONDAY ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING MAY AID IN PRECIP
CHANCES EVEN MORE. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
SURGES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF PRECIP
CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY. APPEARS THE AIR MASS UPSTREAM WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SO NOT ANTICIPATING A MAJOR COOL DOWN BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/05





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