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000
FXUS64 KAMA 252319
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
519 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTH 5 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WARMING TREND HAS STARTED FOR THE PANHANDLES AND PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE CONTINUES TO MELT THE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER INCLUDING AMARILLO...HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH MUCH ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK. MEANWHILE..THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLES HAVE NEARED OR SURPASSED 60 DEGREES. FOR
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE 30S AREA WIDE.

FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED WITH A WARMING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A DRY
PATTERN REMAINS. HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO EVEN 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THIS 3 DAY PERIOD ESPECIALLY ONCE ALL THE SNOW
MELTS...IF NOT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...DEFINITELY BY TUESDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE STRUCTURED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO EXHIBIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOW PACK...BUT THINK BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...70S WILL BE FAIR GAME FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING.

NEXT BIG PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY RIGHT NOW...BUT GENERALLY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE GETS CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE. WHEN THIS
HAPPENS...CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS
EAST IS OFTEN LOW...BUT DO THINK THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.

WITH THIS CURRENT ADVERTISED SET UP...IT ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE MORE OF
AN OVER-RUNNING SITUATION WHERE WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING WITH MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND A CHANGEOVER
TO RAIN/SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPES ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES BUT A
RAIN/SNOW CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NOW.
THERE IS STILL CONCERN THAT THIS LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH TOO. SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP AN
EYE ON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THESE TYPES OF DISTURBANCES/LOWS
CAUGHT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE ARE QUITE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE FOR THE
MODELS.

KH

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/17