Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 030910
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
410 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BASIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW DIURNAL POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...OWING TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS...AND
PERSISTENCE OF SURFACE TROF.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER
EAST...WITH HIGHER 700 MB THETA-E ALSO SHIFTING EAST.  EXPECTED LACK
OF COOL POOL IN MID-LEVELS AND LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US
TO REMOVE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUNDAY MORNING ALSO KEPT DRY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO LOWER
ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION OF LOW POPS IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND/OR SOME
SEMBLANCE OF DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS ON
MONDAY.  EXPECTED DRY-SLOTTING MONDAY NIGHT WARRANTS REMOVAL OF POPS
FROM NORTHWEST.

HUGE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAKE FOR
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE LATER PERIODS.  HOWEVER...LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED OR INCREASED AS POLAR FRONT WILL LIKELY
BRING MOISTURE WITH IT WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                92  67  91  68  90 /  10  10   5  10  10
BEAVER OK                  96  72  96  72  95 /   5   5  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              94  65  91  67  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  95  71  94  71  93 /   5  10   5  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              96  68  93  68  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
CANYON TX                  93  66  91  68  90 /  10  10   5  10  10
CLARENDON TX               93  68  92  69  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 95  64  92  66  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  96  69  94  70  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                93  64  91  66  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                95  71  94  72  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
PAMPA TX                   92  68  92  68  91 /   5   5   5  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                93  69  94  70  93 /   5   5   5   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              94  70  95  72  95 /   5   5   5   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/03



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.