Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

FXUS64 KAMA 081731

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1131 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

18Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions could briefly become MVFR at the Amarillo TAF site
between 20Z today and 00Z to 02Z Friday with some brief period of
snow flurries or light snow. VFR conditions at the Dalhart and
Guymon TAF sites are expected to become MVFR to IFR at the Dalhart
TAF site between about 08Z Friday to around 16Z Friday with the
possibility for some snow flurries or light snow and patchy fog. MVFR
conditions are expected at the Guymon TAF site after about 08Z Friday
to 14Z Friday. Light east and southeast winds 5 to 15 knots will
become south after 04Z to 05Z Friday with speeds increasing to around
10 to 20 knots with gusts possible to around 25 knots or so.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 531 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period. Winds will
be out of the north between 5 to 10 kts leading up to 00Z. After
00Z, winds will shift to SE and then SW by around 06Z as an upper
level feature from the west will shift surface winds. Winds will
increase to 10 to 15 kts out of the SW after 06Z Friday. Tranquil
weather conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. The only
exception could be at KDHT where although not mentioned in the TAFs,
there is an isolated chance of some flurries or even some freezing
drizzle between 06Z and 12Z, where the chances are low, but cannot be
completely ruled out.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

1048 mb high over southern Alberta will continue to slide southward
through the plains today. Highs will struggle to get out of the 20s
and 30s across the panhandles today as the cold air mass settles in.
The surface high will shift off to the east of the panhandles
tonight and this will allow for a lee-side trough to develop in
eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico.  Warm air advection will
move over the cold dome at the surface tonight and temperatures in
this warm air aloft may get above freezing.  Am a little concerned
about the possibility of some very light and patchy freezing drizzle
across the western panhandles if the low level moisture can get
back. Some models think the moisture will come back and some models
do not think that it will get back.  So confidence is not very high
at this point, and will not mention it as a hazard, but will have
some very light patchy freezing drizzle in the forecast after
midnight tonight until noon on Friday.

Much warmer air moves in across the Panhandles on Saturday on
southwest winds.

Sunday and Monday should also have high temperatures above normal
for mid December, but another strong cold front may move through the
region on Tuesday which will knock temperatures down below normal
again for Tuesday through the end of this forecast.

A fast west to northwest flow aloft will be found across the
panhandles for this forecast. Any storm systems are expected to
remain to the north of the panhandles, therefore, do not have any
precipitation chances going in this forecast.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



11/14 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.