Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 151748 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1248 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY MOVED THRU
KGUY AND KDHT WILL SLOWLY TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE KAMA SITE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS CURRENTLY AT KDHT AND KGUY WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS DURG THE COURSE OF THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR AROUND MID MORNING
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS AT KAMA WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY A BIT
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPORARILY IMPROVING TO VFR...ONLY TO
FALL TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE
RISING TO MVFR BY LATE TUE MORNING. HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS
FOR THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE IF ANY STORMS
DEVELOP.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AT KAMA
AND KDHT...WHILE LIKELY TO MISS KGUY ALTOGETHER...OWING TO PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL LAYER.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECASTS AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF SAME.  IFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOWER LEVELS
MOISTEN.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO START THE WORK WEEK WILL TAKE A BRIEF MIDWEEK
REPRIEVE...BEFORE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WERE LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.
FARTHER WEST...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ENOUGH THIS
MORNING TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTHEAST CO ACROSS
NORTHERN KS WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES TODAY...SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAY ALSO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL LINGER.
COULD SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS SUB-SEVERE. THE INCOMING FRONT...ALONG WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE...MAKES FOR A
BIT OF A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY BUT WILL AIM FOR HIGHS
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT DISSOLVES TO OUR SOUTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO CLIP THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
TX PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY...AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION IN THIS AREA.

THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL GET SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES...LIKELY KEEPING ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST...A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EMERGE BY FRIDAY...DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND REMNANT ENERGY FROM NOW HURRICANE ODILE NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA...RESULTING IN WHAT LOOK TO BE DECENT RAIN CHANCES AT THIS
RANGE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR BUILDS
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ON
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO WARM INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MAY START TO SEE SOME SUBTLE COOLING IN THE
WEST ON THURSDAY AS CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE...WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER/RAIN CHANCES AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONT THEN
LIKELY HOLDING HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.