Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 222044
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
344 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.Discussion...
Storms have already started forming in New Mexico and Colorado. The
frontal boundary that kicked these off has moved into the
northwestern Oklahoma Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the northwestern area of the cwa this evening
and progress eastward overnight. The front is progged to stall out
over the central Oklahoma Panhandle and northwestern Texas Panhandle
tonight. This will serve as a focus for more storm development
Thursday. There will be enough instability in the northwest for
storms on Thursday to become strong to perhaps marginally severe.
With deep layer shear remaining weak, storms seem unlikely to become
supercellular and thus preventing likelihood of severe weather.

With a pattern of zonal flow in the upper atmosphere, the area will
continue seeing periods of precip through the weekend as shortwaves
will pass through the area and bring enough instability to set off
thunderstorms through the weekend. Models are in good agreement in
the mid levels through the beginning of next week. They all prog a
low to swing northward from eastern Mexico up to southern-central
Texas. This will bring moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico. This
combine with the instability from shortwaves rippling through the
lower and mid levels, will keep slight chance to chance pops in the
forecast for early next week for portions of the Panhandles. With the
extra cloud cover around, temps next week will remain in the lower
90s.

Beat

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                72  95  70  94  69 /  10  20  30  10   5
Beaver OK                  72  97  71  98  72 /  20  30  40  20  10
Boise City OK              64  92  64  95  67 /  30  30  30  20  20
Borger TX                  74  98  73  97  73 /  10  30  30  10   5
Boys Ranch TX              69  97  69  97  68 /  20  30  30  10  10
Canyon TX                  71  97  69  96  68 /  10  20  30  10   5
Clarendon TX               71  95  69  93  68 /   5  10  20  10   5
Dalhart TX                 65  95  66  96  66 /  30  30  30  20  10
Guymon OK                  71  97  70  98  72 /  20  30  30  20  10
Hereford TX                71  97  69  96  67 /  10  20  30  10  10
Lipscomb TX                72  96  71  95  70 /  10  20  30  10   5
Pampa TX                   72  95  70  93  69 /  10  20  30  10   5
Shamrock TX                71  96  71  94  69 /  10  10  20  10   5
Wellington TX              71  98  71  96  69 /   5   5  10  10   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/16



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