Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 241716 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1116 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017
For the 18Z TAFs:
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites. A weak upper level
trough will pass across the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern
Texas Panhandle. This will increase some mid level cloudiness
for that region and maybe generate a few light sprinkles. Have
noted some mid level cloudiness for KDHT and KGUY. For all TAFS,
north winds around 15kts with a few gusts above 20 kts will
lighten to less than 10 kts and turn more northeast after 00z.
Winds should lay to light and variable by 08z as surface high
pressure moves in behind the trough.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 539 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/
For the 12Z TAFs:
Overall the terminals should be VFR throughout the valid TAF
period. There is a chance KGUY could go to MVFR for low ceilings
early this morning, and then possibly KDHT later this afternoon
for ceilings as well, but my confidence was not high enough to put
this into the current TAF. The other tricky aspect of this TAF
period is the fact some of the high resolution models are trying
to develop light rain over Dalhart this afternoon. Its more likely
none of this rain will reach the ground due to a very dry stable
layer near the surface; however, it is definitely something worth
mentioning. KDHT may have a thick layer of mid-level clouds this
afternoon. Look for possible amendments if the rain looks more
likely to develop and possibly cause visibility restrictions.
Otherwise, wind speeds will remain relatively calm at or below 15
knots. Gusts could occasionally get closer to 20 knots, but this
was not added to the TAFs except for KGUY where the stronger wind
speeds will likely be this afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 407 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/
The frontal boundary which moved through the forecast area
Thursday evening has now pushed south and west of the Panhandles
early Friday morning. Cold surface high to build south out of the
central Plains states tonight and then into the southern Plains
states Saturday. Winds will veer around from the northwest and
north today to the northeast and east tonight and then south and
southwest Saturday. Upper low over the central Rockies today will
rapidly move east tonight and Saturday with dry northwesterly
upper flow this weekend. Surface low develops on the frontal
boundary today to the lee of the southern Rockies which should
remain across the eastern Plains of New Mexico through the
A secondary cold front to push south and west into the Panhandles
late Saturday night into Sunday and should stall across the
forecast area by Sunday night before lifting northward Monday as a
warm front into the northern portions of the Panhandles by Monday
night. Frontal boundary should push south again as a cold front
Tuesday but then stall once again across the forecast area by
Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Frontal boundary is expected
to finally move completely across the Panhandles by Wednesday
evening or Wednesday night. Some isolated showers or light rain
will be possible Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night across the
northern portions of the Panhandles as a short wave trough
approaches from the southwestern states, Four Corners region and
the central and southern Rockies.
The cold front has pushed south of the Panhandles early this
morning extending back northward across the eastern Plains of New
Mexico. A surface low is expected to develop on the frontal
boundary over eastern or northeastern New Mexico today. North and
northwest 20 foot winds should increase south and west of the
Panhandles today and then spread north and east into the southwest
Texas Panhandle this afternoon. These 20 foot winds should
increase to around 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts by mid
afternoon today over the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle.
Critical fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon
over Deaf Smith county with elevated fire weather conditions
across Oldham, Potter and Randall counties as winds should
increase to around 15 mph or 15 to 20 mph. Minimum afternoon
relative humidities will range from 10 to 15 percent across the
extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle with 15 to 20 percent across
the remainder of the southwest and south central Texas Panhandle.
On Saturday, 20 foot winds will return back to the south and
southwest again and increase to around 15 to 20 mph mainly across
the western portions of the Texas Panhandle by Saturday afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday
afternoon across the western portions of the Texas Panhandle as
minimum afternoon humidities should be around 15 to 20 percent.
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
Monday and Tuesday as a cold front pushes into the northern
sections of the Panhandles with strong west and southwest 20 foot
winds 15 to 25 mph or 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts out ahead of
the cold front and minimum afternoon relative humidities of 10 to
15 percent likely.
TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: Deaf Smith.