Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 010349
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1049 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

THUNDERSTORMS ENCROACHING ON KGUY AND KDHT CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD. HAVE UTILIZED FM GROUPS TO COVER THUNDER
CHANCES AT THESE TWO SITES AND HAVE STAYED OPTIMISTIC THAT STORMS
WILL WEAKEN AND DIE JUST BEFORE THEY GET INTO KAMA. THIS SITUATION
WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE NECESSARY AMENDMENTS.
A STRAY STORM COULD AFFECT KDHT MON AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

UPDATE...

SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE NRN 1/3RD OF
THE PANHANDLES AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF CLAYTON TO NEAR GARDEN CITY KS DRIFTS
SOUTH. AN INCREASING LLJ SAMPLED BY KAMA AND KDDC PROFILERS IS PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS A WEAK SHRTWV WORKS
WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF GENERALLY UNINHIBITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LIFTED FROM AROUND 800MB. SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS AND A FEW WIND GUSTS CAN`T BE RULED IN THE NW
PANHANDLES WITH THIS CONVECTION AS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC BASED
CINH IS RELATIVELY WEAK UP THAT WAY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.
INHIBITION WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY HELP WEAKEN THIS
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTH. CHANCES THAT MEASURABLE RAIN MAKE IT TO
THE SRN TX PANHANDLE ARE ABOUT 30%. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ARE OUT.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN
THIS TAF PERIOD. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KGUY
FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY KDHT, WITH LESS OF A THREAT AT A KAMA. HAVE
INSERTED VCTS AT KGUY AND VCSH AT KDHT FM 06-09Z TONIGHT, BUT MAY NEED
TO TAKE THAT FURTHER IF STORMS OVER COLORADO KEEP FIRING AND MOVING
SE. WINDS WILL RETAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE PANHANDLES WITH LOW
END RAIN CHANCES OFF AND ON OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THIS EVENING, A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
PANHANDLES COULD ALLOW MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO MAKE FURTHER EASTWARD
PROGRESS THAN YESTERDAY. HAVE RETAINED LOW END POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THERE IS A DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
(1000-2000 J/KG) AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR (30-40KT) SO A STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO DOWNBURSTS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR ANY STORMS THAT
BECOMES SEVERE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH TIME AS WE GO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY TO PLACE THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW.
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
TO INVADE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE SPREADING NEAR AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
ON THE LOW END (AROUND 1000 J/KG) WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FOR ANY STORM THAT
BECOMES STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLES. IF THE GROUND WAS
NOT AS SATURATED AS IT IS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS
AREA WIDE FOR HIGHS. BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS
SHIFTS TREND OF STAYING ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES, AROUND 90,  WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES WHILE THE EASTERN
HALF WARMS TO THE MID 80S. POP CHANCES LOOK TO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
MEANDER AROUND WHICH WILL OPEN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES TO OFF AND
ON RAIN CHANCES. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES (WHILE STILL
REMAINING ON THE LOW END) DURING THE TIME PERIOD GIVEN THE LOCATION
IN RESPECT TO THE RIDGE AXIS. SHOULD ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME THEN WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/08




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