Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 230346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1046 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

For 06z TAFs...All sites expected to remain VFR through the
period. Winds across the area will begin veering back to the
southwest through the morning hours at 5-10kts increasing to
15-20kts by late morning. Looking at model sounding profiles for
early Saturday morning...some low level wind shear up to 25kts is
possible generally between 09z and 13z. Looks like shear will
remain below kept out of TAFs. Isolated thunder is
possible again Saturday afternoon and evening in the western OK
Panhandle and northwestern TX Panhandle.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

Diurnal convection continues to be main weather feature across
portions of the region as the 598 decameter upper level high pressure
system continues to compress and shift to the southwest. In-
conjunction with surface observations showing SSE surface flow
across the TX/NM border, this has generated some convection over the
mountains of New Mexico a little bit further to the east compared to
yesterday at this time. The highest probability of showers and
thunderstorms will be across far western OK Panhandle and far
northwestern TX Panhandle from this afternoon to late tonight.
Precipitation chances will diminish as we go into early Saturday
morning. Similar weather pattern will continues as we go from
Saturday into Saturday night across the Panhandles with best chances
in the same locations as previously mentioned.

As we go from Sunday night into the middle of next week, latest
22/12Z model and probabilistic guidance are depicting a more zonal
flow across the central CONUS. Areas just north of the Panhandles will
be under an upper level westerly flow while across the Panhandles,
our 500-250 hPa flow will be easterlies. With jet streaks moving east
across the central plains and a stalled out surface front developing
across southern Kansas, some low pressure impulses may develop along
this surface baroclinic zone and enhance our chances of thunderstorms across
the Panhandles as they move southeast into our region. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms at this time look to be the greatest as we
go toward the middle of next week. Temperatures overall will cool
slightly as we go from the second half of the weekend into early next
week as a more ESE surface wind will be established as high temps
will be in the mid 90s. With that established SE wind flow, humidity
will also return to the region, especially across the eastern



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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