Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 041118 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
618 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

REGIONAL IR LOOP SHOWS A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION
NOW MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RAINFALL RATES OF THREE QUARTERS
TO ONE INCH HAVE RECENTLY BEEN ESTIMATED BY RADAR WHERE THE MOST
ROBUST CONVECTION REMAINS (JUST NORTHEAST OF DUMAS) BUT HAVE
DECREASED AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS PER LATEST TPW IMAGERY AND SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING COULD STILL OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WILL TRIM THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY AND WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLY.

WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE (ALBEIT STEADILY DECREASING) AND A WEAK
PERTURBATION IN THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW MOVING THROUGH AROUND MID
DAY...DECIDED TO HOLD LOW POPS IN THROUGH 18Z ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY AUGUST CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
REGION BY THURSDAY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE
APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

BY FRIDAY EVENING SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS NOTED IN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN THE RETURN OF A FAMILIAR PATTERN WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION
FOCUSED NEAR THE RATON RIDGE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT STARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SMALLER
SCALE DETAILS ARE YET TO BE RESOLVED. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17




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