Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 251649 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1149 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CUMULUS...PRIMARILY
AROUND KAMA...GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
OUR TERMINALS.  PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROF RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO KAMA...BUT CERTAINTY OF A DIRECT IMPACT AT
TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 KT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS MIXING INCREASES BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 12KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW 10KT OVERNIGHT. AS THE WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT THEY
WILL ALSO DECOUPLE AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SOME
FORECAST MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
PREVAILING CONDITIONS AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THEY LOOK LIKE A
LONG SHOT AT THIS POINT...BUT CAN NOT LEAVE THE MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN GET WARM ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME ANY CAP. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED IF THEY DEVELOP AND THEY SHOULD WANE WITH THE SETTING SUN.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THIS
WAY FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST CWA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST BY THURSDAY
ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING AND
COLORADO THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING ADDED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY TO THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL PROVIDE A SURFACE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR THE REGION
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PLAINS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06



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