Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 241031 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
531 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.Aviation...
VFR conditions are anticipated for the majority of the 12z TAF
cycle. Lingering storms are anticipated to move out of all terminals
by the late morning hours. Once these storms dissipate/move out of
the terminals, a lull in activity is expected for the better part of
the daylight hours. Southwest winds in the 15kt to 20kt sustained
with gusts near 30kt will prevail during the afternoon. As we move
into the evening hours, we expect to see another round of convection
to develop across the eastern New Mexico Plains before moving into
the northern and western Panhandles. These storms could impact the
KDHT and KGUY terminal so have inserted a PROB30 group to account
for this chance. Towards the end of this TAF cycle, any convection
ongoing should diminish prior to 12z Saturday.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 338 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

Discussion...
Upper level high is centered near DFW early this morning.  An upper
level low was located over northeast Mexico moving west northwest.
Various outflow boundaries across the CWA early this morning may
keep showers and thunderstorms going off and on through the
afternoon. Another crop of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the front range of the southern Rockies this
afternoon. The westerly flow aloft should then bring these showers
and thunderstorms into the panhandles late this afternoon and
tonight.

The upper level low over Mexico is expected to get drawn up into
West Texas Saturday and Sunday which could enhance our chances of
showers and thunderstorms.

The upper level high will re-establish itself over the 4-corners
region by Monday which will place the panhandles under a northwest
flow aloft which will tend to help bring mountain convection this
way.

Tuesday night could be a down time for precipitation as the flow
goes more northerly which could keep mountain convection to our
west. However, the devil will be in the details and if the flow ends
up being more northwest, then showers and thunderstorms will need to
inserted back into the forecast.

Northwest flow aloft will dominate the panhandles Wednesday through
the end of this forecast, which will keep precipitation chances
going.

Temperatures will fall back to around normal for highs after today
and Saturday.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15



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