Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 261708
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1208 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions are expected at the three TAF sites through 18Z
Thursday. North winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts to near 30 knots
will diminish by 00Z Thursday to around 5 to 10 knots from the
east and southeast, and then becoming southwest to west and
increasing to around 20 to 30 knots with gusts to near 35 knots
after 14Z to 16Z Thursday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 605 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

AVIATION...
Rain should come to an end at DHT and GUY as this forecast begins.
Rain will continue through much of the morning at AMA. IFR
conditions at AMA are expected to lift around mid day. MVFR
conditions at DHT and GUY should also improve around mid day.
Gusty north winds will continue for much of the day. The winds
will decrease early this evening and they will gradually become
southeast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 415 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar trends are showing further precipitation development
underneath the center of the upper level trough axis over
northeast NM moving Southeast into the TX Panhandle. With moderate
bands of precipitation associated with the upper level trough,
enough cooling of the column may result in periods of snow being
mixed in with the rainfall across the northwestern Panhandles.
Some light accumulations on grassy surface are possible if the
snowfall is persistent. As the upper level system moves southeast
across the region, so will the remainder of the precipitation.
Latest hi-res 00Z model guidance shows the the upper level
feature moving east-southeast and exiting the Panhandles region
by this afternoon. The established north to northwesterly flow of
15-20 kts associated with the upper level trough will decrease to
a light southeast flow as we go from tonight into Thursday
morning as we return to a zonal upper level pattern. High
temperatures today will remain below average with highs in the low
to mid 60s.

Going into the latter half of the work week, latest 26/00Z model
and numerical guidance continues to show a predominant zonal mid
level flow. In-conjunction with the mid level flow, a series of
250 hPa jet streaks rounding the base of the broad upper level
trough across the central CONUS has the Panhandles in favorable
upper level jet dynamics. As a result, this will help to form a
surface low pressure system over the western TX Panhandle. This
will result in a rather tricky forecast for winds and high
temperatures for Thursday. If the surface feature gets
established, the local height gradient can set up a rather strong
westerly flow, especially across the SW TX Panhandle. Winds will
be rather close to wind headlines possible for the southwestern
areas. Forecast vertical profile data also illustrate a deep
mixing layer going into Thursday afternoon suggesting gusty winds
and warming temperatures. With the good westerly flow,
temperatures could be warmer than the suggested guidance. For now,
went slightly above guidance with high temperatures at or
slightly above average for Thursday and Friday. An isolated shower
or thunderstorm is also possible across the far northeastern
Panhandles as weak PVA along the mid level flow in-conjunction
with limited moisture transport into the aforementioned region
under southerly and southeasterly flow. Otherwise, tranquil
weather conditions are expected for the rest of the Panhandles
region.

Some more widespread precipitation will return to the region as we
go into the weekend. A ridge of high pressure off the southeast
Atlantic coastline will result in a deepening equatorward upper
level trough over the Four Corners region. A closed upper level
low centered over northern New Mexico by Saturday afternoon will
help to establish good CAA across the region. The exact track of
the upper level low pressure system from Saturday evening through
Sunday is still not in 100% agreement along with the timing. With
that said, if the slower model solutions wins out, which has been
the trend as of late, prolonged precipitation is possible. Going
into Saturday evening/night as good CAA on the backside of the low
pressure system enters the region with the main low exiting the
region to the northeast, there is an increasing chance of
accumulating snowfall, especially across the western Panhandles.
Latest 00Z numerical trends is bringing in the colder H850-H700
much faster than previous runs which could result in a prolonged
winter precipitation event. The eastern extent of the winter
precipitation could be as far east as a line from Guymon,
southward towards the Amarillo/Canyon region. We will update the
forecast as we get closer to the weekend. High temps on Saturday
and Sunday will be well below average. Confidence is also
increasing for a possible hard freeze across the western
Panhandles Saturday night with low temps in the upper 20s in the
western Panhandles with lower to mid 30s across the rest of the
region. Temperatures will rebound to near average for early next
week as we return to zonal flow with tranquil weather conditions.

Meccariello

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the SW TX
Panhandle during the day on Thursday. With min RH values in the
15-20% range along with 20 ft winds of 25-30 kts with higher gusts
possible, elevated fire weather conditions cannot be completely
ruled out. However, if sufficient rainfall occurs in this area
along with the progressive green up in the region, this could
mitigate fire weather based off of antecedent conditions.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/7



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