Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 190514 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1214 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Southerly winds will continue at around 10 knots at all sites.
Winds will get a little gusty by afternoon, but then they will
decrease again toward sunset. Thunderstorms will try to move this
way from the mountains late this afternoon and this evening. At
this point it looks like any storms will be fairly isolated.
Therefore, will not mention them in this forecast. Skies are
expected to remain VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 851 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

Despite 2000-3000 J/KG cape and an upcapped atmosphere, we have
seen no redevelopment of storms in the wake of last nights
activity. Most of the area is now on the backside of a weak H5
s/wv, except possibly the far SW. There is one storm well SW of
the area in NM. Based on this, held onto a less than 20% in the
far SW, but have pulled POPs elsewhere for the night. Otherwise,
no significant changes.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 638 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

For the 00Z TAFs, VFR conditions are anticipated at the terminal
sites through late Saturday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms may
develop over parts of the forecast area late Saturday afternoon.
However, confidence is low with respect to where or if this will
occur, which precludes mentioning in the TAFs.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 456 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

Isolated diurnally driven storms possible this afternoon across
the Panhandles. While instability is pretty good, about 3000 J/kg
of CAPE, the modified airmass from last nights storms could make
it difficult to reach the convective temperature to get storms to
develop. If storms are able to develop they will not have as good
upper level dynamics for organization as yesterday. With bulk
shear values around 10 to 20 kts any storms that develop will
likely be pulsing in nature and slow moving, which could lead to
localized heavy rain with possible flooding in poor drainage

As we move into the weekend the upper level ridge will shift
further east and will start to transition to a more southwest
flow, and could possibly bring some convection over us from the
mountains. By Sunday and Monday an upper level low off the
southern CA coast will help to spin up more moisture to the area.
The bulk of this moisture looks to be over AZ/NM, but there is
still the possibility for storms to impact the western and
central Panhandles.

Have increased POPS on Tuesday as moisture may make it further
east over the Panhandles. We will transition from a westerly to
northwesterly flow Tuesday into Wednesday as the high begins to
rebuild over the four corners area. Thursday onward, models
diverge in solutions at this point, with one indicating a
disturbance to move through, and others suggesting that high
pressure will attempt to move back over the Panhandles limiting
the chance for active weather, whereas a more pulse convective
scenario would be favorable.


VFR conditions expected through period. Winds will be southerly
at 10-15 knots this afternoon decreasing to 5-10 knots overnight.
Can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two mainly in the
western Texas Panhandle late this afternoon. Confidence not high
enough to include TS mention in TAFs at this time, but amendments
may be needed based on radar/obs/sat trends.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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