Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 212355 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
555 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONT
PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-14 KTS
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH NEARBY AND THE
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING IN
DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...NOT EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT. SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD...DESPITE LOWERING CLOUD DECKS MONDAY.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH CAN GENERATE LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY BEFORE
CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW ONCE TEMPS COOL BELOW FREEZING. HAVE OPTED TO
NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW ATTM.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA...PRECIP THREAT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED
ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE PNHDLS MONDAY. POPS MONDAY NIGHT ARE HIGHEST
IN SWRN TX PNHDL...DROPPING TO NON MENTIONABLE ACROSS NERN AND FAR ERN
ZONES. PRECIP WILL START OUT AS LIGHT RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SNOW FROM NW TO SE MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE AND THE FAST MOVG NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
ITSELF...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH AT ANY ONE
GIVEN LOCATION. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER IS FCST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN DOWNRIGHT WINDY ON TUESDAY. SOME SORT OF WIND HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORESEEN ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STRONG
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SLATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NO POPS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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