Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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433
FXUS64 KAMA 200359 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
959 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Tough min T forecast tonight as very dry conditions suggest temps
on colder side of guidance, but unlike last night, winds are a
factor tonight and this will attempt to counter radiative
processes. In fact LLJ of 30-40 knots is indicated by models
across the south and east and this should keep things a bit
mixed. There is a boundary that will cause winds to weaken across
the W/NW and this is where coolest lows will occur. Based on all
this, tweaked temps up mainly E and NE where strongest SW/W low
level winds are expected.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 548 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/

AVIATION...
Will remain dry with VFR conditions. Only concern is for potential
of LLWS at AMA with 40kt low level jet forming overnight.
Currently we anticipate enough mixing and rather uniform direction
that the increase in winds will be gradual through the layer, but
will watch closely in case winds at sfc decouple and perhaps back
more than anticipated.

MJG

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 241 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
No major departures from the same dry story.  Dry northwest flow
aloft will prevail for the next several days as Great Basin mid-
level ridge amplifies through Thursday, and then begins to dampen
Friday and Saturday, with a slow eastward movement Saturday and
Sunday.  Occasional cold fronts will keep lower levels dry.
Gulf of Mexico will remain totally closed through Sunday with no
indication of low-level moisture return.  With no upper-level
disturbances of any significance expected, all pops are zero.

Lee trof will move into western zones early Monday, with southwest
and west winds continuing, and highs about 10 to 15 degrees
Fahrenheit above normal.  Next cold front Monday night brings
brisk north winds and cooler conditions for Tuesday, with highs
close to climo.

Cool surface ridge moves east of area on Wednesday, with
southwest winds bringing highs 5 to 10 degrees above climo.  Weak
cold front Wednesday night induces north winds on Thursday, yet
highs on Thursday are expected to reach the 70s area-wide, 10 to
15 degrees above normal, as increasing heights aloft lead to rapid
modification of airmass.  Warm conditions continue on Friday,
with highs about 15 degrees above normal.  Friday night cold
front bring Saturday and Sunday highs close to climo.  03

Cockrell

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions will continue until around 5 PM
this afternoon due to breezy dry southwest winds and relative
humidities in the 15 to 20 percent range.  Light to moderate
southwest and west winds are expected Monday.  A cold front
Monday night will bring north winds of 15 to 25 MPH for Tuesday,
but relative humidities are expected to remain well above 20
percent.  Light to moderate southwest and west winds are expected
on Wednesday.  Light to moderate north winds are forecast for
Thursday.  Dry southwest winds on Friday may produce elevated
fire weather conditions across the southwest Texas Panhandle.
Moderate northeast winds are expected on Saturday.  Southwest and
south winds are expected on Sunday.  No elevated or critical fire
weather conditions are expected through Sunday other than the
elevated today and Friday.  03

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

88/88



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