436
FXUS64 KAMA 101740
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Thunderstorms today, Friday, and Saturday have a low chance of
becoming severe. Damaging winds and hail are the primary hazards.

Increasing moisture will allow for heavy rainfall and flooding
risk Friday through the weekend.

Daily thunderstorm chances continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A weather system is moving across the southern plains today
bringing mid level moisture across the panhandles. Daytime heating
and instability associated with this weather system is already
sparking high based rain showers. As the day progress further high
based rain showers and thunderstorms will have a moderate to high
chance of forming. These will most likely form a loose line of
storms that will transit slowly from the NW panhandles to the SE
panhandles. There is a deep sub cloud base dry layer which will
mitigate some of the rainfall from any rain shower or
thunderstorm. However this will make these storms far more
efficient wind producer with any of them able to produce downburst
wind. There is a low chance that a few of the storms will become
strong to severe with even stronger downburst winds and large
hail. As the loose line of rain showers and thunderstorms move
into the central panhandle during the evening the loss of heating
and the weakening of the weather system will cause them to
dissipate. During the overnight hours a low level jet has a high
chance of forming across the panhandles. This jet is very
significant as it will help shunt a large amount of low level gulf
moisture quickly in the southern plain including the panhandles.
This additional moisture will provide further fuel for Friday as
another small weather system moves into the panhandles. This
system will in turn cause rain showers and thunderstorms that move
NW to SE across the panhandles during the afternoon and evening.
The storms then have a moderate chance of persisting through the
overnight hours into Saturday morning. With the additional
moisture the amount and coverage of these storms will be higher
than today with the whole panhandles having a chance of seeing
precipitation. Even with the relatively small weather system
there is a low chance that a few storms become strong to severe
with large hail and damaging winds. The increased moisture will
bring a new threat in that these storms will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall that can lead to flooding. Just to
emphasize the significant nature of the moisture it will be
building to upwards of 1.5in PWAT. This puts it near the maximum
moisture that we typically see for this time of year. The increase
in moisture will also herald the return of more muggy weather
compared to our more typical dry heat. A silver lining with the
moisture increase is that the temperatures will be falling with
high in the 90s to 100s today dropping to the low to mid 90s for
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

The southern plains including the panhandles will have a high
chance of staying under a stagnant pattern of a high pressure to
the west and east of the region while a broad trough stay over the
region. This pattern will remain very favorable for pushing
increasingly copious amounts of Gulf moisture into the
panhandles. The broad trough along with daytime heating will
provide the instability needed for rain showers and thunderstorms
to form. So for each day there will be at least portions of the
panhandles that will have a moderate chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms. The moisture will remain extremely high with PWAT
increasing further with at least a low-moderate chance that
1.5-1.8in PWAT move into the panhandles. This moisture is darn
near or exceeding the maximum we see in the panhandles for any of
these mid July days. Indeed if we are on the higher end of the
range this moisture would be some of the highest ever seen in the
panhandles. With such high moisture heavy rainfall may occur with
any rain showers or thunderstorm that form in the panhandles. The
threat of heavy rain will then persist for so long as this high
moisture remains across the panhandles. The silver lining will
remain through the weekend into next week as the moisture leads to
cooler temperatures even if it will lead to muggy days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A weather system will produce high based rain showers and
thunderstorms in the panhandles this afternoon through to the
evening. There is a low chance that these will impact the
terminals during this time. A few of the storms have a low chance
of becoming strong to severe producing strong downburst winds.
Conditions are most likely to remain VFR even with the passage of
a thunderstorm. If conditions did lower from thunderstorms it is
most likely to MVFR. Otherwise ambient winds will be gusty from
the south during the daytime hours becoming weak for the
overnight. There is a very low chance that further rain showers or
thunderstorms develop during the overnight hours, this will not be
reflected in any TAF. Active weather continues on Friday as more
rain showers or thunderstorms are expected for that day.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98