Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 291739 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  BY EARLY THIS EVENING...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.  THUS...HAVE CALLED FOR
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT KDHT AND KGUY BEGINNING AT 01Z AND 02Z
TUESDAY RESPECTIVELY.  THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.
THEREFORE...VCTS REMARK IS IN FORECAST FOR KAMA BEGINNING AT 02Z
TUESDAY.  DEVELOPMENTS DURING NEXT SIX TO TEN HOURS WILL BE MONITORED
WITH AMENDMENTS LIKELY.  APART FROM BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z

THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THIS
MORNING BUT NOT ALL THAT LIKELY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NOTED AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS EVENING. THINK EVENTUALLY PREVAILING OR
TEMPO GROUPS WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED...BUT STAYED OPTIMISTIC WITH VCTS
FOR NOW. CHANCES FOR STORMS AT KAMA ARE LOW THIS EVENING BUT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION LATER TODAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER EASTERN CO WHILE A
DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN IN CENTRAL NM. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT INCREASES AS THE UPPER LOW ACQUIRES A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER TODAY.
WITH DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S...INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...LEADING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE STORMS FIRING IN EASTERN NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
MOVING INTO THE AMA CWA AS THEY TAKE ON A MORE LINEAR MODE. A FEW
SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING BULK
SHEAR. MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A BOISE CITY TO GLENRIO
LINE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN FORCING FROM THIS UPPER LOW.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS FURTHER
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER CAN SEE STORMS REFIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AS A PACIFIC FRONT DRYLINE FEATURE MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS BETTER TODAY AS
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...
PLEASANT FALL WX CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING ON FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AND MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE STRONGER LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...HEIGHT
FALLS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE CAN RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES
FURTHER TO THE EAST. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WX TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06




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