Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 272312 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
512 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGES WILL BE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY.

SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS EASILY 12 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EVEN APPROACHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK. SO GET OUT AND ENJOY...MAYBE PUT UP THOSE CHRISTMAS
LIGHTS AND DECORATIONS BECAUSE BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON.

SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TAKES AIM FOR THE REGION. IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE A LARGE (25F+ DEGREE) TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT LOOKS
TO BE QUITE THE HEADACHE AS THE GFS IS ROUGHLY 6-8 HOURS FASTER WITH
ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IF THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION OCCURS...HIGHS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT 60S FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS
OUT...SUNDAY COULD TURN INTO A NICE WARM DAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS DIPPING WELL
INTO THE TEENS...A FAR CRY FROM THE ALMOST 80S 48 HOURS BEFOREHAND!
MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE 30S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER THE PATTERN BY TUESDAY AS A
NICE WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 60S EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY 20FT WINDS INCREASE ABOVE
15MPH.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15





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