Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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298
FXUS64 KAMA 290940
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
440 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Continue to have serious issues with not being able to see
surrounding offices ISC grids. With that said and based on model
data available, an active northwesterly upper flow pattern to
commence today as shortwave troughs approach the Panhandles from
central and southern Rockies. Currently dew points in the 30s and,
with winds expected to be from the southwest this morning, should
remain mainly in the 30s and 40s through this afternoon. However,
winds will back to the southeast by this evening and allow for an
advection of low level moisture into the forecast area as dew
points climb into the 40s and 50s tonight. A frontal boundary
should push into the northeastern portions of the forecast area
later today but then lift back to the north and east by Tuesday as
a warm front. With convection expected to develop across the
higher terrain and mountains of southern Colorado and northern New
Mexico with diurnal heating and upper support from the shortwave
trough, expect convection to propagate east and south across the
northern and western portions of the Panhandles by late today into
this evening. Expect convection to wane by late this evening or
early Tuesday morning but then redevelop again over the higher
terrain and mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico
and spreads south and east across mainly the northwest half or
less of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night as
another shortwave trough over the central and southern Rockies
approaches the Panhandles.

Best chances for convection across the Panhandles appears to be
Wednesday afternoon through Friday as low level moisture increases
ahead of a surface boundary moving into the northwest portions of
the forecast area by Wednesday evening and the latter half of
this week. Main concern will be very heavy rainfall and possible
localized flooding as the ECMWF forecast PWat values of 0.8 inches
(75th percentile for May) between 18Z Tuesday to 18Z Wednesday
increasing to around 1.09 to 1.23 inches (99th percentile to Max
percentile for May) between 00Z Thursday and 06Z Friday. The GFS
PWat values are very similar to the ECMWF from 18Z Tuesday to 18Z
Wednesday, 0.8 to 0.9 inches (75th percentile), and increasing to
between 1.18 and 1.26 inches (99th to Max percentile) between 00Z
Thursday and 06Z Friday. Other than a few strong to possibly
marginally severe storms this week, the severe weather threat
should be low across the Panhandles. A surface low and cold front to
track east and south across the forecast area Friday and then out
of the Panhandles by Saturday. Convection expected to prevail through
the upcoming weekend as an active northwesterly flow pattern
continues.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                82  55  83  58  82 /  10  20  10  20  30
Beaver OK                  84  56  86  58  87 /  20  20  20  20  20
Boise City OK              78  51  80  53  81 /  30  30  20  30  20
Borger TX                  85  58  86  60  85 /  10  20  10  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              84  55  85  57  84 /  10  20  20  20  30
Canyon TX                  83  55  84  57  83 /  10  20  10  20  30
Clarendon TX               83  58  84  60  82 /   5   5   5  10  30
Dalhart TX                 81  52  83  55  81 /  20  30  20  40  30
Guymon OK                  82  54  85  57  85 /  20  30  20  30  20
Hereford TX                82  55  84  56  81 /  10  20  20  20  30
Lipscomb TX                84  57  86  60  85 /  20  10  10  20  20
Pampa TX                   82  56  83  58  82 /   5  10  10  10  20
Shamrock TX                85  58  85  61  85 /   5   5   5  10  20
Wellington TX              86  59  87  62  86 /   0   5   5  10  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

24/11



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