National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KAMA 251913
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
213 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT VERTICALLY DEVELOPING CU FIELD OVER THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. EXPECT CONVECTION COULD INITIATE THERE
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...SO HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
GRIDDED POPS /20 PERCENT/ OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AN EXTREMELY DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER UP TO AROUND 550 MB COULD CONTRIBUTE TO BRIEF/LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF -TSRA AT KGUY/KDHT AS
PROBABILITY OF STORMS NEARING EITHER TERMINAL IS TOO LOW THIS
EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...AND MAY NEAR THE KGUY/KDHT TERMINALS BY AROUND 15Z. THIS
WILL ONLY RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST INITIALLY.
STORMS MAY FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WILL BE JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

AVIATION...
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE DHT AND GUY TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT ANY
MENTION OF TSRA AT THIS POINT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY MID
MORNING AND THEN THEY WILL SLOW AGAIN WITH THE SETTING SUN. SKIES
WILL REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

HOT HOT HOT LEADS TO WET WET WET IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TODAY AND SATURDAY...
BOTH THESE DAYS WILL BE VERY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY. HIGHS WILL PUSH 100
IN MOST AREAS, BUT PROBABLY NOT CROSS IT IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE WHERE
THINGS ARE STILL SO GREEN.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RAMP UP BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP RAPIDLY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY BECOME A THREAT THIS WEEK AND ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED. IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT
TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS, BUT MULTIPLE ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE EXTENSIVE NEXT
WEEK.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/05