Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 251745 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE DHT AND GUY TAF
SITES...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPALBE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG WINDS...SO HAVE MENTINED THAT IN THE
TEMPO GROUP. THE AMA TAF SITE DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD OF A CHANCE OF
TSRA...SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF IT OUT THERE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS
NRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WHETHER KGUY...KDHT...OR BOTH SITES WILL BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION FOR THIS FCST CYCLE.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SHIFT
EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
OVER THE PANHANDLES AND A SERIES OF VORT MAXES TO APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AND A COOLER AND MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED.
ALSO...THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD BACK TO THE WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17





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