Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 310339
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1039 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TODAY WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES. MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z TO 16Z
THURSDAY...AND THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z THURSDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z
THURSDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME PLUS
THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ALSO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z THURSDAY BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS BY 08Z TO 10Z THURSDAY AND THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST BY 20Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXTENDED PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE INVADED THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOOK TO STICK AROUND. COULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE THEY DIP BACK INTO MVFR OR LOWER OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO IMPACT KDHT
BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND
AMEND AS NEEDED OVERNIGHT. THINK THERE WILL MOSTLY BE LOW CLOUDS, BUT
BR IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHOULD COME BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

MOULTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY QUIET NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS
BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE NORTH WINDS...LOW CLOUDS AND NOTABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AT 4 PM ON A JULY AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE TOO STABLE TO SEE ANY FURTHER CONVECTION WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ONLY CARRIED VERY
SLIGHT POPS WHERE INSTABILITY GREATEST THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT AND SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE TAIL END OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...FORECAST MODELS HINT AT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
AT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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