Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 282357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
657 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

00Z TAFs - VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will
vary around east with speeds at or less than 10kts overnight. By
Thursday morning, winds will shift southerly and increase to 15kts,
with some occasional gusts near 20kts possible at KDHT and KGUY.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 235 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

Current upper level analysis shows cutoff closed low moving into the
Ohio Valley while high pressure builds into the southern Plains. A
weak front in association with closed low has shifted surface winds
to the northeast across the Panhandles. This front will continue
to sag south/southwest through Thursday and will bring slightly
cooler temperatures to the area Thursday and Friday with highs
mostly in the 70s then slowly back into the 80s into the weekend.
Large scale subsidence and low moisture content will keep the
forecast dry at least until late Friday into Saturday when weak
return flow sets up bringing some moisture into the area. This
moisture along with a weak shortwave will help spark a few
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two mainly confined to the
western and northern half of the CWA.

Long term...Still some differences between models with the large upper
trough progged to approach the area Tuesday through Wednesday of
next week. Both models have dropped the southern extend of the jet
further south with better dynamics for precipitation and possibly
storms in portions of the area. The eastern Panhandles look to
stand the best chance for precip at this time...but still
uncertainty with timing and location of trough with Euro a bit
less progressive and more negatively tilted compared to the GFS
leading to more precip further west. The Euro also shows a
stronger mid- level jet moving across Panhandles which suggest
more organized storms compared to GFS. Details will become more
clear over the next few days.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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