Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 150418
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1118 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR AS LOW CLOUDS SPREAD WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z TO 10Z MONDAY. THE MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 16Z MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES AROUND 14Z TO 16Z
MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AROUND 20Z TO 22Z
MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS BUT THEN
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY. MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
23Z MONDAY TO 01Z TUESDAY AS A COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
PREVAILS. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
FOG...DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN AFTER 00Z TUESDAY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE JUST
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
KAMA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT KDHT OR KGUY...THOUGH THINK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS FROM
DEVELOPING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN A LITTLE BREEZY OVERNIGHT...WITH A
COLD FRONT BRINGING A SHIFT TO STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH KGUY
AND KDHT BY AROUND 16Z. NOT EXPECTING THE FRONT TO REACH KAMA BEFORE
00Z TUESDAY. ALSO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA IN THE PANHANDLES
ON MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACT TO TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOTED THIS GO AROUND OF THE
FORECAST AS MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO WORK WITH WHAT TO DO WITH
THE REMNANTS OF CAT 4 HURRICANE ODILE. THE OVERALL UPR AIR PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW EARLY THIS WORK WEEK EAST OF A
FOUR CORNERS RIDGE. BY AROUND THURSDAY...THIS FOUR CORNERS UPR RIDGE
WILL BE A PANHANDLES CENTERED UPR RIDGE, BUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT
TO DEVELOP FOR OUR AREA. IN THIS SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE SOME PARTS
OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...MEANING RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MODEL PROGNOSTICATIONS HERE IN WEST TEXAS. A
FEW STORMS COULD FIRE IN THE OK PANHANDLE OR NRN TX PANHANDLE, BUT
CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. THIS
SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL NEED FOR AN
EVENING UPDATE. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT
BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...
HAVE RETAINED GOING PRECIP CHANCES AND ORIENTATION FOR
MONDAY...WHICH GIVES THE AREA ABOUT A 20-30 PERCENT SHOT FOR SOME
MORE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON EXPECTED INSTABILITY FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A
BIT MORE OVERALL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN SO THE NET DIFF IS PROBABLY
NEGLIGIBLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH A FEW ISO SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT. UPR RIDGING MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS
TO CLIMB TO NEARLY 24C MEANING WED-FRI SHOULD BE PLEASANTLY WARM.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS...BUT INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES AS SEVERAL SIGNS ARE STARTING
TO POINT TO SOME RAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/99




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