Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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077
FXUS64 KAMA 170426 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1026 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.AVIATION...
Southwest winds from 12 to 15 knots overnight will increase to
around 25 knots with higher gusts by late morning. Winds will then
decrease with sunset Friday evening. Skies are expected to remain
VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 539 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/

AVIATION...
Southwest winds will be around 15 knots or less through the night.
Winds will then pick up to around 25 knots with gusts to around
35 knots by mid morning. Skies are expected to remain VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 349 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An overall quiet forecast is in store the next seven days outside of
fire weather concerns, mainly for Friday. Fire weather concerns
Friday will be at least critical, and then potentially *near*
elevated through the weekend, but the weekend shouldn`t pose a
threat unless things degrade here on out. Confidence through Friday
night in the forecast is pretty high which features the most
impactful period of this forecast. Thanksgiving itself looks like a
nice day across the Panhandles, including travel around the local
area the days leading up to the holiday.

Looking specifically at Friday, analogs indicate the forecast is
very in-line with previous events given the current pattern and
other variables. Confidence is pretty high the forecast will come to
fruition. The one limiting factor is relative humidity given the
chance a couple degrees difference in both directions for air
temperature and dewpoint could result in the percentage of RH off
by ~3%. Given the westerly winds tomorrow, chances for dry
conditions are strong given the area of advection and the
downsloping topography. That being said, I don`t think fires care
about strict "criteria", and the treat for fire potential is
warranted. As a result, I went ahead and expanded the threat area,
and upgraded the current threat area to a Red Flag warning.
Mixing heights will be deep tomorrow afternoon with strong winds
aloft. Wind speeds are going to be close to 30-35 mph for much of
our western zones, and even still other areas will be 20-30 mph.
Relative humidity values will easily drop down into the teens for
much of the Panhandles to as low as perhaps near 10-13 percent.

This weekend there is a low chance for elevated fire weather
concerns given breezy winds in some areas and low relative humidity
around 20%.

The days leading up to Thanksgiving next week look overall nice with
little impacts weather-wise to speak of at this time across the
local area.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Deaf Smith...
     Donley...Gray...Oldham...Potter...Randall.

OK...None.

&&

$$

15/11



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