Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 271718 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THREE
TERMINALS...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA...MAINTAINING LIGHT
WINDS TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH THICK VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. POSSIBLE FOR FEW MID CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AND THEY WILL STAY GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SOME VIRGA MAY BE FOUND AROUND THE TAF SITES...BUT CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWING THE VERY WARM WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEK AHEAD.

IT/S A VERY MILD LATE OCTOBER MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH
THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS
HOLDING EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 4 AM.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF PUEBLO TO JUST SOUTH OF
GOODLAND.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...HELPING TO SHOVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL MAKE HIGH TEMPS TRICKY...WITH A DECENT
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ANTICIPATED. HAVE REMOVED INHERITED
SMALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ANEMIC...WITH
ANY BETTER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY REMAINING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MID-LEVELS DO MOISTEN UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AS BETTER MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS/FRONTOGENESIS
GRAZE THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY IN THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS...WHICH WILL MAKE IT VERY TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT VIRGA SEEMS
LIKE A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO. OF MORE CONCERN TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
ARE LOW TEMPERATURES. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ITS AXIS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...TEMPS MAY DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S IN THESE FAR WESTERN AREAS. NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPS
AT THIS POINT...BUT VALUES IN THE 33-36F RANGE ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR AS TO
HOW LOW TEMPS FALL...AS MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES.

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL FALL WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL IN
WAKE OF TODAY/S FRONT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE
60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST...ALLOWING FOR WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WILL AGAIN PASS DRY GIVEN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...GIVING
WAY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDES
BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER...BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLY
MOVES THROUGH AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KB/CE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/03






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