Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 160429 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1128 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT THE DALHART TAF SITE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VLIFR
CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 16Z TUESDAY AT THE DALHART
TAF SITE. AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES...VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
ABOUT 10Z AND 16Z TUESDAY. MVFR AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AFTER 16Z TO 18Z TUESDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WHICH WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z TO 19Z TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISHING AGAIN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 00Z TUESDAY
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
14Z TO 16Z TUESDAY. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE DALHART AND GUYMON
TAF SITES WILL BECOME LIFR TO VLIFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER
00Z TO 02Z TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING MVFR TO VFR AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 16Z
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE WILL QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR TO IFR AFTER 01Z TO 03Z TUESDAY AND MAY BECOME VLIFR TO IFR DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AFTER 16Z
TO 18Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO BE A THORN IN THE SIDE OF OUR FORECAST.
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PANHANDLES
EARLIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WE
NOW HAVE RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE...AND THERE ARE EVEN A FEW INDICATIONS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE EARLY ENOUGH. ALL IN ALL...THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING
PRETTY GOOD BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...
LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO KS AT THIS HOUR...THINK SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT THERE COULD BE A BIT OF PRECIP IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE TUE-THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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