Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 162325
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
625 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CAUSE A COMPLICATED TAF CYCLE THROUGH ROUGHLY 6Z THIS EVENING
FOR ALL TERMINALS. HAVE CARRIED VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS AND HAVE
REMOVED MENTION FROM PREVAILING BASED ON HI-RES MODELS. SHOULD A CORE
MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK DROP IN
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO IFR OR LOWER. UPDATES ARE LIKELY DURING
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE A MVFR
DECK DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY
AMPLE. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY TO MIX OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RE-POSTING THE AFD SECTION CONCERNING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
TODAY. LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

WE WILL PERFORM A SPECIAL BALLOON RELEASE AT 18Z. INITIAL CONCERN IS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND
ONGOING CLOUDS/SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. FURTHER EAST WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER SURFACE DIABATIC HEATING AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL MOIST
ADVECTION IS OCCURING. 12Z OBSERVED KAMA SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE YIELDS MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. ONE
OF THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES NOW IS TO WHAT DEGREE WE MIX OUT AND
IMPLICATIONS THAT WILL HAVE FOR INSTABILITY. MOISTURE IS PROBABLY
QUITE SHALLOW BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPENING WITH TIME.
LATEST WEST TEXAS MESONET OBS SHOW LOW 60 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINTS
UP STREAM IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAP AND OTHER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SEEM TO BE TOO WEAK AND SLIGHTLY
MISPLACED WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...HENCE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISOLLOBARIC RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS AREA MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST AS WELL. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 25 KNOTS. WITH SUCH LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 8500 FEET AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF A
TORNADO WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS RESULTING IN STRONGER 0-1KM
SHEAR.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS DURATION. WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING SO WILL THE THREAT OF CONVECTION. A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT.

BRB

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE
RISK FOR STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SATURDAY THE LOW CONTINUES ITS
TRACK AND SOME MODELS PLACE THE PANHANDLES WITH THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. HAVE KEPT VERY LOW END POPS FOR THIS AREA BUT IF THIS DRY
SLOT TREND CONTINUES THEN WE COULD BE PRECIP FREE ON SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND BRINGS OFF AND ON
PRECIP CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO BE LIMITED NEXT WEEK TO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES. THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA COULD
MITIGATE THESE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FUELS COULD BECOME
UNSUPPORTIVE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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