Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 150503
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1203 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 06Z
Monday. North winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to near 25 knots
will diminish by 08Z to 10Z Sunday to around 5 to 15 knots and
then becoming light and variable, mostly northeast to southeast 5
knots or less, after 11Z to 13Z Sunday. A brief period of low
level wind shear will be possible at the Amarillo TAF site between
06Z and 10Z Sunday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 753 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/

UPDATE...
Minor update to advance the front through the Panhandles a bit
quicker and increase wind speeds slightly. Current obs show winds
increasing to around 30G40kts briefly behind the front. Dalhart
had a max gust of 45 knots. The front should arrive in the
Amarillo area around 830PM-900PM CDT. Holding off on any wind
advisory as the 30kt winds are not expected to sustain long enough
to meet criteria (upstream obs show winds decreasing to around
25-28kts fairly quickly). Also decreased pops in the southeastern
Texas Panhandle to slight chance. Still can`t rule out a
thunderstorm given better moisture in southeast zones, but cap has
been holding strong due to cloud cover.

Ward

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 611 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/

AVIATION...
Cold front will sweep through the TAF sites this evening brining
north winds at 25 to 30 knots with higher gusts. Wind gusts may
get close to Airport Weather Warning criteria of 40 knots at AMA.
At this point it looks like they may come up just short. Winds
decrease fairly fast after the front and they should be down to
around 10 knots or less at all sites by sunrise. Skies are expected
to remain VFR, except there could be some blowing dust which may
lower visibilities into the MVFR range, especially at DHT and AMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 600 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Once the cold front makes its way through the region, as
described in the Update section of the Forecast Discussion, mostly
clear skies with tranquil weather conditions will dominate the
forecast period. Mid level northwesterly flow due to a building
anticyclonic 500 hPa flow centered over the Baja peninsula for
the first half of next week will continue to bring large scale
upper level convergence over the Panhandles. The mid level flow will
become more zonal toward the middle to end of next week as a
deepening upper level trough makes it way into the northern
California coastline. Going forward into next weekend, latest 14/12Z
global models begin to diverge into next weekend, in which several
days out is to be expected. Some model outputs does bring our next
chance of rainfall into the region starting the second half of next
weekend, but this will be further diagnosed as we get closer with
time. Temperatures throughout the week should be at or slightly above
average throughout the forecast period.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/24



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