Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 191149
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE PROBABLY AT KAMA OR KDHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
PREVAILING -SHRA OR -TSRA THOUGH CERTAINLY COULD SEE THAT BEING ADDED
IN LATER ISSUANCES.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99




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