Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 292132 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
432 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER SECTION WHICH WAS BLANK IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SPIN
EAST...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET MAX BRINGING A FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. PAY ATTENTION FOR UPDATES TO THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT FROM OTHER PRODUCTS AS APPROPRIATE.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THIS FORECAST ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW TIME FRAME. TRIMMED AND REDUCED POPS TO HIGHLIGHT
GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS
FOR A LINE OF POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE PANHANDLES FROM NM/CO TONIGHT AROUND 6-7 PM. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH
AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHED
BY 10 PM.

TUESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AS A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARBY. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD GENERATE 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...AND MLCAPE AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS A LOW
END CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY...AND
FOCUS TURNS TOWARD A DECENT COLD FRONT PLUNGING FROM CO/KS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD DRAG THIS
FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE CURRENT
THINKING BEING ON THE FASTER SIDE. THESE EARLY SEASON COLD FRONTS
TEND TO BE ON THE QUICK SIDE. IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK BACK
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES AND USHER IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. QUIET WEATHER THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
THOUGH FINE GRASSY FUEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE CONCERN
FOR FIRE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK...AREAS WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15
MPH IN THOSE AREAS.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06




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