Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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316
FXUS64 KAMA 260853
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
353 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
At 08z storm activity is trending down with mostly stratiform
precipitation with light showers over our eastern zones.
Moreover...will cancel the Flood Watch as flooding is no longer
expected with this activity. Additional rain amounts less than a
few tenths of an inch expected in the watch area.

Otherwise...the upper trough axis over the western CONUS
continues to slowly advance eastward with 595 DAM ridge spinning over
the southern Appalachian Mountains per water vapor imagery. Short
and medium range numerical guidance prog a weak disturbance to
move over the OK Panhandle later today as the frontal boundary
retreats northward. While there is some uncertainty how far north
the front will retreat...most guidance does have it as far north
as southern KS by tomorrow evening. Convection will once again
initiate near this front and may have some modest upper level
dynamics to work with as disturbance moves through with best
chances over the northern TX panhandle and OK Panhandle. Further
south...The combination of decent moisture fields and weak upslope
flow will also lead to at least isolated thunder potential but
with weaker upper level flow. The northern zones will have the
best chance for stronger storms. Inverted-v soundings with steep
LL lapse rates will result in strong wind gust potential. Model
soundings also show very little CIN during the afternoon but also
not much buoyancy with skinny CAPE profiles resulting in a lower
hail threat. Vertical shear will be best in the OK Panhandle where
the best mid level winds will reside during the evening resulting
in 30-35kts. Temperatures will be tricky with yesterdays rain and
depending on how far north the front gets. Went a few degrees
below guidance based on these factors...especially across
southeast zones.

For the weekend into next week...models continue to show upper
trough slowly deamplify with flow becoming more zonal towards
Sunday. Surface flow will continue to be favorable for some
moisture return through the early part of next week. Diurnally
driven thunderstorms are possible each afternoon for portions of
the area until models show upper ridge amplify Tuesday into
Wednesday as trough begins to dig in over PAC NW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                84  64  87  64  86 /  20  10  20  20  40
Beaver OK                  86  66  92  66  89 /  40  50  20  40  40
Boise City OK              83  61  86  61  85 /  40  40  30  30  30
Borger TX                  86  67  90  66  89 /  30  20  20  30  40
Boys Ranch TX              86  64  89  64  88 /  30  20  20  20  40
Canyon TX                  85  64  88  64  86 /  20  10  20  20  50
Clarendon TX               86  66  89  66  88 /  20  10  10  20  30
Dalhart TX                 85  62  88  62  87 /  30  40  20  30  30
Guymon OK                  85  65  90  65  89 /  40  50  30  40  40
Hereford TX                84  63  87  64  86 /  20  10  20  20  40
Lipscomb TX                86  67  91  67  89 /  30  20  20  40  40
Pampa TX                   83  65  88  65  88 /  20  10  20  30  40
Shamrock TX                87  68  91  68  89 /  10  10  10  30  40
Wellington TX              88  69  92  69  90 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following zones:
     Armstrong...Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...Hemphill...
     Wheeler.

OK...None.

&&

$$

2/7



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