Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 311743 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT
KDHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DECIDED NOT TO MENTION THIS ELEMENT IN THE
KDHT FCST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND EXPECTED VERY SPARSE COVERAGE IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOP AT ALL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
BRIEF EPISODE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED DURING
THE FIRST HOUR OF THIS FORECAST AT KAMA.  DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVING VIA LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN RAPID
CLEARING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT.  LIGHT
NORTH AND NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY
EARLY THIS EVENING.  NO OVERNIGHT BR OR FOG EXPECTED AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE VEERING TO SOUTHWEST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. 03

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST STANDARDS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

IT/S BEEN A REFRESHINGLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY SCOURING OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME DRIZZLE AROUND THE AREA LAST EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE ON THE DECLINE. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE ALSO BEEN TRYING TO WORK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA OUT OF
NORTHEAST NM...BUT HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE
COOL/STABLE AIR IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING. A FEW
SPOTS IN THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA COULD SEE A
STRAY SPRINKLE OR PATCH OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE
PROSPECTS FOR EVEN THIS WILL FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE MAIN
STORY TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF COOL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN WESTERN UPPER RIDGING AND A TROUGH
IN THE EAST WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THUS A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
MAY WORK INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AT TIMES FROM THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES FAR ENOUGH EAST
OVER THE ROCKIES...AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TO LIKELY KEEP ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CO AND NM. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER
90S BY TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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