Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 280829
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
329 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE PANHANDLES IS
STEADILY MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT ECHOS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WITH HIGHER RETURNS
SOUTH OF CHILDRESS. THESE LIGHT ECHOS ARE PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN
TO DRIZZLE...SO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
BEFORE WE SEE AN END TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING. HI-RES MODELS SHOW
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL NOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIP FREE BY 10 AM.

CLOUD COVER COULD SLOW TEMPERATURES WARMING DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT THEY SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY
THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE OUT OF THE NORTH BY THE
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE NEAR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES, BUT THINK
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE FROST
THRESHOLD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BRING A RETURN OF NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE
FLATTENS ON FRIDAY AND COULD ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITING THE
ROCKIES TO BRING A RETURN TO STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND ALLOWS MORE
OF THE PANHANDLES TO SEE A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES. LIMITED INSTABILITY,
500 TO 1000 J/KG, AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL KEEP SEVERE CHANCES
LIMITED BUT NOT RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF NEW MEXICO. THE
FORCING PROVIDED BY THE DRYLINE IN CONJUNCTION WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
OF CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 30KT (DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
YOU GO WITH) COULD ALLOW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, BUT THE
CHANCE IS THERE. PRECIP CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AROUND MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT DECENT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  40  71  44  79 /  10   5   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  69  41  74  44  82 /   5   5   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              64  39  72  43  79 /   5   5   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  67  41  73  47  80 /  10   5   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              65  39  74  44  82 /  10   5   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  63  38  71  43  79 /  10   5   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               64  44  72  46  79 /  20   5   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 64  38  73  42  80 /   5   5   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  68  40  73  43  81 /   0   5   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                64  38  73  43  81 /  10   5   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                66  42  71  46  79 /  10   5   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   63  41  70  45  77 /  10   5   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                65  44  70  46  77 /  20   5   0   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              66  46  72  48  79 /  20   5   0   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/14





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