Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 232300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
600 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Thursday. North and northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts near
25 knots will diminish to 5 to 10 knots after 01Z to 02Z Wednesday
and become more northwest to west. Northwest and west to southwest
winds 5 to 15 knots will prevail at all three TAF sites after
about 14Z to 16Z Wednesday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday)...

Cool and somewhat dry airmass continues to spill into the
Panhandles in the wake of a front now extending from NE Tex SW to
Cen Tex. CU field should dissipate through the night as temps
cool. Overnight lows will be on chilly side for late May with
values in the 40s area wide. Dry conditions and developing SW-W
flow will provide large diurnal range Wed with highs around 80.

Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Highly amplified trough across the MS River Valley Wed will slowly
lift across the NE US. Minimal SW ridging will only briefly remain
across the plains in the wake of this system with a split zonal flow
developing across the SW US by Thursday. The ridging together with
SW low level flow will help pump high temps up into the 90s on
Thu. A NRN stream Pac NW trough will move across the NRN/Cen
Plains. This will help force the SRN stream jet a bit further
south across the region by Saturday while also pushing a cold
front into the area (possibly for second time as GFS shows an
initial intrusion and subsequent backpedal on FRI). The front
combined with a weak srn stream s/wv will provide a chance for
storms favoring the north on Saturday. This appears to be one of
those strange Panhandles days where storms would be favored behind
the front where better low level moisture resides as the dry line
may push pretty far east south of the frontal boundary.

High uncertainty exists for the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe. General
troughiness in the ERN US will continue to promote rapid fire of
weak frontal boundaries through the area with little time for return
flow and moisture in between. That said, models do not agree on
where these fronts will stall and therefore the location of assoc
moisture pools. The ECMWF is showing the greatest moisture and
precip potential across the Panhandles Mon and Tues while the GEM
pushes best moisture to NM. GFS is somewhat of a compromise showing
some convective potential but mainly in WRN zones. Given this,
models blends showing slt chc POPs east to lower end chc POPs west
seem reasonable, but might be tempting to cap off chcs at 30. Fropas
will also hold temps to near or slightly below normal Sun through
Tue. Models are in decent agreement WRT development of a SW US/NW
Mexico southern stream low very late in the period, but impacts of
this system, if any, would be beyond the 7 days.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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