Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 250603 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
103 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs, a very low confidence forecast with respect to
cigs and precipitation. Have retained continuity from previous
fcst cycle as much as possible. As for tstm potential, will
monitor radar trends closely early this morning. Amendments may
become necessary.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 648 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Southeast surface winds below 15 kt expected to prevail overnight.
Uncertainty abounds regarding timing of ceilings dropping into
MVFR range and thunderstorm occurrences.  For now, will forecast
ceilings to fall into MVFR range around 03z, 05z and 13z at DHT,
AMA and GUY, respectively.  Thunderstorms expected to impact
terminals between 04z and 08z, with occasional showers continuing
past sunrise.  Expecting DHT and AMA to fall into IFR range
between 08z and 10z, and to not return to MVFR until around 18z
Sunday.  Amendments will likely be needed to address timing
issues.

Cockrell

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Temps this afternoon are hovering in the mid to upper 60s in the
southwest CWA and in the lower 80s in the northeast CWA. If
Amarillo doesn`t get above 72 degrees, we will set a record low
maximum. So far, Amarillo has reached 71 degrees. The mostly
broken to overcast cloud cover in response to the cold front is
the responsible party for these below normal temps. The northeast
has seen a break in the clouds; thus the higher temps. This
evening will see another chance for precip to come off the
mountains and filter into the area. Upslope flow through Sunday
night will maintain the cloud cover and chances for precip. PWAT
values are in the 90th percentile, leading to moderate to heavy
rainfall at times within showers and thunderstorms.

The beginning of the work week will see a small increase in temps
as clouds are able to break a bit more apart as low level winds
swing more southwesterly. A mid-level shortwave passing through
the area as the upper level ridge crosses the Rockies will create
more instability than what was available over the weekend. After
the ridge moves away, zonal flow will set in for mid-week, but it
will be short lived as an upper level trough tries to push its way
south out of western Canada. The zonal flow in conjunction with a
strong LLJ will allow us to warm up again into the upper 90s and
100s with the downslope, dry flow. The end of the work week will
see a chance for precip to return as ridging tries to build back
into the western CONUS, creating northwest flow again for the
area.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$


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