Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 271031
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
531 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND PICKUP AROUND 15Z WITH GUSTS NEAR
25KTS AND THEN CALM DOWN AROUND 02Z TO THE 10 TO 12KTS RANGE. SOME
SCATTERED CU WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE SITES.

MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS MORNING...SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR
NRN ZONES AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH MORNING LOW POPS OVER THAT
AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ADDITIONAL ISOLD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS FAR NWRN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AROUND THE WRN AND NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. 20 POPS SEEM PLAUSIBLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TUE NIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE POST
FRONTAL MOIST ATMOSPHERE. POPS THEN FALL TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE
BOARD ON FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FCST TO REORIENT ITSELF
BACK TO THE W TO AROUND THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE...THE FCST AREA
WOULD BE UNDER SOME SEMBLANCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS USUALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STEERING STORMS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SERN CO AND NERN NM. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON WHETHER OR NOT
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW PATTERN SO HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY NIGHT
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO
SEE POPS EVENTUALY BEING ADDED IF THIS NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN EVOLVES
AS PROGGED.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/02





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