Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 270414 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1114 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF IFR
OR MVFR VISIBILITY IF +TSRA IMPACTS ONE OF THE SITES.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN IT LOOKS LIKE ALL SITES COULD BE IMPACTED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA FOR SEVERAL HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNSET...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL SITES. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY GET DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE UNDER THESE STORMS. WOULD ALSO
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A 40 KNOT WIND GUST FROM ONE OF THESE STORMS
AS WELL. SOME MORE SHOWERS MAY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND AFFECT THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES...SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE VCSH REMARK AT THESE LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THEN THEY WILL INCREASE AND GET GUSTY BY
MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TYPICAL LATE AUGUST WEATHER TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT
TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DECENT FETCH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 12Z KAMA RAOB INDICATES AN INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z SOUNDING WITH A DECREASE IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES MLCAPES
AROUND 500 J/KG. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A SUBTLE UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NM...EXPECT PULSE TYPE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY
IN PLACE...NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE HOWEVER
HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH CAN ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HOWEVER CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS ALTHOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET CAN HELP TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
BEAVER OK TO HEREFORD TX LINE. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

LINGERING CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT
A GENERAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN/ EDGING CLOSER TO THE AREA.
THIS TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND WITH THE REGION UNDER CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL ALSO GREATLY INCREASE THANKS IN PART FROM
HURRICANE MARIE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAKING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STORMS. SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...HELPING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE DAY. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE A LITTLE
BETTER THAN TODAY WITH GREATER INSTABILITY IN PLACE BUT OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER AS 0-6 KM BULK WIND SHEAR REMAINS
BELOW 30 KTS. DENSE CLOUD COVER...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CAN LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S MUCH LIKE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE LOW- LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT
FURTHER NORTHWARD...FOCUSING THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS KS/NE.

LONG TERM...WET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY BEFORE EJECTING EAST OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...BUT STILL STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. NONETHELESS...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED FROM HURRICANE MARIE CONTINUES THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL GREATLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND THE
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 90S SUNDAY AFTER A WELCOME PERIOD OF HIGHS IN THE 80S.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15





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