Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 210902
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR/FOG PRODUCT SHOW AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING.

AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS TODAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAVE LIMITED
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL RESULT IN MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TIMING AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS WITH A FOCUS FOR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ENDING
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW EVENING.

THEREAFTER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS IN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND RESULTS IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AREA WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE EMERGES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL/TROUGH PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AT LEAST PER THE GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE
CLOSED OFF WITH BETTER MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MAINLY JUST AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                75  54  68  53  76 /  10  10  50  20   5
BEAVER OK                  77  55  72  52  78 /   5   5  40  30  10
BOISE CITY OK              75  50  70  47  76 /  10  10  30  10   5
BORGER TX                  78  57  69  55  78 /  10  10  50  30  10
BOYS RANCH TX              76  53  67  52  77 /  10  20  40  20   5
CANYON TX                  75  53  68  53  76 /  10  20  50  20  10
CLARENDON TX               78  54  70  53  78 /  10  10  60  30  10
DALHART TX                 74  51  68  48  77 /  10  20  40  20   5
GUYMON OK                  78  53  70  50  78 /   5  10  30  20   5
HEREFORD TX                74  52  67  52  75 /  10  20  40  20   5
LIPSCOMB TX                79  56  73  55  78 /   5   5  40  30  10
PAMPA TX                   76  53  69  52  77 /   5  10  50  30  10
SHAMROCK TX                80  54  71  54  79 /   5  10  50  30  10
WELLINGTON TX              81  57  72  57  80 /  10  10  50  30  10

&&


.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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