Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 011717 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1217 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS VARYING FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KNS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE A REINFORCING
SURGE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AGAIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL BE FLUCTUATING FROM THE NORTH AND EAST 5 TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO...AND THEN SOUTH AT THE AMARILLO TAF
SITE...BEFORE BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHEAST AGAIN BY 06Z TO 12Z
TUESDAY AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP THIS MORNING. FRONT
NOW LIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY RIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THEN THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. HAVE
GENERALLY USED THE FASTEST GFS MODEL FOR WINDS TODAY...BUT EVEN HAD
TO SPEED UP THE FRONT A LITTLE OVER THE GFS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AS RETURN FLOW OVER THE FRONT HELPS TO BRING
INSTABILITY BACK TO THE AREA. THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY HAVE THE BETTER SHOT OF RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.

HAVE INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA FOR
TUESDAY AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE OLD FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING
IN THIS AREA...ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY POOL IN THIS AREA. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO PASS OVER THIS AREA ON TUESDAY.

WILL LEAVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE WHEN THE
NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WHICH
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTH.

ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD BRING SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY GET DOWN
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WINDS MAY GET GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. BUT FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL RANGES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




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