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000
FXUS64 KAMA 161705
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1205 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.AVIATION...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY GIVEN WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AND POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS. THERE REMAINS HIGH VARIABILITY ON WHEN AND
WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. AS SUCH WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE
TERMINALS...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS WILL BE HIGHEST AT KAMA AND KGUY BETWEEN 01 AND 09 Z.
SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL LIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE INTRODUCED
MVFR CEILINGS AT KDHT AND IFR CEILINGS AT KGUY BUT LEFT KAMA VFR DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE STRATUS CAN PROGRESS BEFORE THE
END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

AVIATION...
SHRA AND TSRA WILL LINGER AT THE GUY TAF SITE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN THEY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITE. SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE DHT AND AMA TAF SITES. THE CIGS WOULD BE IN
THE MVFR RANGE IF THEY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE DHT TAF SITE COULD DIP
INTO THE HIGH END OF IFR. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
THE LOWEST LEVELS MIXED UP ENOUGH THAT CIGS SHOULD STAY IN THE VFR
RANGE.

EASTERLY WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL GET GUSTY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING AND THEY COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE GUY TAF SITE...BUT WILL
LEAVE THE MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE TAF SITE FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING IS NOT HIGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE
GUY AND DHT TAF SITES AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
FAVORABLE WNW TO NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM
THIS MORNINGS TSTM COMPLEX AND A DEVELOPING SFC TROF WILL COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CAUSE TSTMS TO FORM AGAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS AS WELL...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HIGHEST POPS NERN
ZONES AND LOWEST FAR SW TX PNHDL FOR TONIGHT. USED AREAL QUALIFIER
DESCRIPTIVE WORDING FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FCST PCKG.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SWD ACROSS THE PNHDLS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY VERY WELL END UP TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FCST AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT HEADS SWD. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. FAVORABLE WNW TO
NW STEERING FLOW...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...FAST MOVG MINOR UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROFS GRAZNG THE FCST AREA...AND ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THREAT OF TSTMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU TUE
NIGHT. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS AREAWIDE PLAUSIBLE FOR BOTH DAYS. SOME
SVR AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT BOTH DAYS.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING WED
AND PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN ISOLD TSTORM MAY OCCUR AROUND
WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK OR WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO SO HAVE RETAINED A DRY FCST AFTER TUE NIGHT
AT THIS TIME. TEMPS REBOUNDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WED THRU SAT.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/16