Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 192313

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
613 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period. Winds have
been gusting 20-30 mph but are expected to die down and become calm
around 10 kts around the start of the 00Z TAFs and remain there
through the rest of the period. Winds will be shifting from SW to a
northerly wind by 12z.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 549 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

Generally benign weather will be the rule across the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles through Thursday. A weak cold front will move
across the region late tonight and Wednesday morning with little
fanfare other than cooler temperatures compared to todays values.

A large upper level trof continues to be progged by all models to
establish itself over the western United States the remainder of
this week and weekend, then track across the plains states early
next week. This particular upper level trof will likely transport
deep moisture north and northeast into the area as it slowly moves
towards the plains states with heavy rain potential likely
increasing beginning Friday night and contiuing into Monday,
diminishing Tuesday. Pops begin Friday and continue through
Tuesday, with highest values Saturday through Monday night. The
upper level trof is forecast to translate across the plains states
next Tuesday, with precipitation ending from north to south on
that day. In addition, another cold front will move across the
fcst area around Monday if medium range models verify.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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