Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 302110
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
410 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW
50S.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BUT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING CAN LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY BENEATH COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW
GIVEN THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE AND TTU WRF DISPLAY ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA WHERE THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BE. DESPITE THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT...STILL
MAINTAINED POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREATS. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW BACKS FURTHER OUT OF THE WEST. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TAGGING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL MIX
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE THE GFS MIXES IT INTO OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND SREF HANG IT ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS LEADING TO A SURFACE
TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS CAN ENCOURAGE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES...RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HAVE GONE AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THINKING THE DRYLINE WILL HANG UP IN THIS LOCATION
AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGERING A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK EVEN FURTHER ON GOOD FRIDAY. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S IN TIME FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 15 TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR UNDER 10 MPH.
IN ADDITION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED TO
POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
FIRE DANGER...ERC VALUES ABOVE 50...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. A DRYLINE
WILL MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  87  51  88  49 /   5  10  10   5  10
BEAVER OK                  43  83  49  86  46 /   5   5   5   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              44  82  47  84  43 /   0   5   5   5  10
BORGER TX                  51  86  54  89  50 /   0  10   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              45  85  48  89  47 /   5   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  47  87  49  88  49 /   5  10  10   5  10
CLARENDON TX               51  87  53  90  52 /   5  20  20   5  10
DALHART TX                 42  84  44  86  44 /   5   5   5   0   5
GUYMON OK                  43  85  49  85  44 /   5   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                47  86  48  87  49 /   5  10  10   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                47  84  51  89  49 /   5  20  20   5  20
PAMPA TX                   49  85  51  89  48 /   5  20  10   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                50  87  53  90  51 /   5  30  20   5  20
WELLINGTON TX              52  88  55  91  54 /   5  30  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.