Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 112318 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
518 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FRIDAY MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND BY THE END OF THE DAY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STAY AROUND OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

LORENZEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH HAS PROVIDED
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE PANHANDLES AND TEMPS INTO THE 60S
AND EVEN SOME PLACES REACHING 70. UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK
FRONTS GO THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THESE
ALL LOOK TO BE DRY BUT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
EACH OF THESE FRONTS. SUNDAY WILL SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH AS RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND BE OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND UP TO 80 BY THURSDAY...30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

BEAT

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIP INTO THE
TEENS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...THUS PREVENTING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. 20 FOOT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GET CLOSE TO 15
MPH SO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE BELOW 20.
THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 20 FOR THE AREA AND BELOW 15 FOR THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES
AND 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 15 MPH...LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THESE ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
PARTS OF THE CRITICAL WILDFIRE OUTBREAK COMPOSITE AS COMING TOGETHER
FOR THURSDAY. THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE
COMPOSITE SHOWS BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER EAST. THE 500 MB JET
IS ALIGNED CORRECTLY AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW CLOSELY PACKED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER THOUGH SO STAY TUNED.

BEAT

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/15


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.