Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 151125
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
525 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The well advertised freezing rain and ice storm event are well
underway in the OK and TX Panhandles. Largest accumulations of ice on
the order of one half of an inch or more have occurred in the Ice
Storm warning area with generally less than one quarter of an inch
ice accumulation in the Freezing Rain Advisory area. In addition,
several reports of power outages along with tree damage have been
observed. Expect rain and freezing rain with embedded tstms to
continue this morning across most of the area as temperatures hover
near freezing. Current winter weather highlights will remain intact
until expiration at Noon CST today.

The strong, closed upper level low currenly located over nwrn Mexico
will move east northeast to near extreme sern NM by late this
afternoon, then track northeast into nwrn OK by 12Z Monday. All
numerical weather models are in decent agreement on the projected
path of this storm system and were accepted. As temperatures climb
above freezing later today, expect periods of rain and tstms with
potentially heavy rain at times. A few of the stronger storms that
develop may be capable of producing small hail.

Then as the cold core of the upper level low pressure system tracks
just to the southeast of the fcst area tonight into early Monday, a
variety of winter precipitation is anticipated, including light
sleet, light snow, and a brief period of light freezing rain psbly
across the nern zones. The greatest threat for accumulating snows
will be across the nwrn half of the fcst area, generally along and nw
of highway 60. At this time...highest snowfall totals on the order of
3 to 4 inches will likely be in the far nwrn counties with lower
amounts of 1 to 2 inches along and northwest of highway 60. Less than
one inch of snowfall accumulation is foreseen in the southeast third
of the TX Panhandle. Additional winter weather highlights will likely
become necessary for tonight across parts of the OK and TX Panhandles,
and will defer that decision to the next shift. Would like to allow
current freezing rain and ice storm highlights to play out first.

Dry weather and moderating temperatures are then expected for Tuesday
through Friday. Medium range models suggest another upper level low
pressure system may impact the srn high plains on Saturday. However,
they continue to disagree on the important details such as projected
path and strength. Therefore, have gone with a model consensus
solution for this fcst pckg pending better agreement.

Andrade

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                36  29  45  27  52 / 100  90  10  10   5
Beaver OK                  33  28  40  25  49 / 100 100  40  10   0
Boise City OK              33  26  38  23  49 / 100  90  40  10   5
Borger TX                  36  29  43  29  53 / 100  90  20  10   5
Boys Ranch TX              36  28  44  26  52 / 100  90  10  10   5
Canyon TX                  36  29  46  27  52 / 100  90  10  10   5
Clarendon TX               37  32  49  29  53 / 100  90   5  10   5
Dalhart TX                 35  27  41  26  52 / 100  90  30  10   5
Guymon OK                  33  28  40  25  51 / 100 100  40  10   0
Hereford TX                36  29  47  26  53 / 100  90  10  10   5
Lipscomb TX                34  30  41  26  51 / 100 100  20  10   0
Pampa TX                   35  30  43  27  53 / 100  90  10  10   5
Shamrock TX                37  33  48  29  53 / 100  90  10  10   0
Wellington TX              39  34  52  31  54 / 100  90   5  10   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST today for the following zones:
     Hemphill...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...Wheeler.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...
     Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...
     Oldham...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

OK...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST today for the following zones:
     Beaver...Texas.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for the following
     zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$


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