Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
510 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 12Z
Monday. North and northwest winds 10 to 20 knots at all three TAF
sites through about 22Z to 23Z today. Winds may gust near 25 to 30
knots mainly at the Amarillo and Guymon TAF sites. Winds will become
variable 5 to 10 knots or less after 23Z today.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 409 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

As the main upper level low pressure system continues to move east
along the Red River, moisture wrapped around the system will continue
to bring showers across the region. With current temperatures still
well above freezing, precipitation types have consistency reflected
just rain across the Panhandles. Latest hi-res model runs are in more
agreement of a gradual clearing across the central and then eastern
Panhandles from now until around 15Z Sunday. Once we go into the
afternoon hours on Sunday, winds will begin to diminish slowly
throughout the day as an upper level ridge axis moves east towards
the Panhandles region. This will bring tranquil weather conditions
through the day on Monday. Latest 22/00Z numerical data by Monday
afternoon shows an established southwesterly flow with H850
temperatures averaging between 11C and 15C. With some good
downsloping off the high terrain to our west, high temperatures will
rebound to lower and perhaps even a few mid 70s for parts of the
southern TX Panhandle by Monday.

As we go into the day on Tuesday, a surface low pressure system will
develop across western Kansas as the embedded jet streak in the main
250 hPa southern jet positioned over our region will lead to
cyclogenesis over parts of the central Plains. As our region is
upstream of the ridge axis during the day on Tuesday with the jet
core right over the Panhandles, latest 00z numerical data shows
strong winds aloft by mid day Tuesday with average H700 winds of 45-60
kts respectively. If enough mixing is established along and behind
the passing cold front Tuesday morning in-conjunction with the steep
height gradient moving east into the Panhandles, strong winds are
definitely possible in reaching wind advisory or even high wind
warning criteria, especially in the far western Panhandles. Will
update the forecast accordingly as we get closer to Tuesday.
Otherwise, in the wake of the cold front, temperatures will drop
throughout the day through the 50s and perhaps into the upper 40s by
Tuesday evening. Going beyond Tuesday, a zonal upper level pattern
will continue to bring tranquil weather conditions with temperatures
below average in the mid to upper 40s.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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