Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 251722

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

18Z TAF Cycle

Mid and low level clouds will be on the increase at all three TAF
sites allowing for MVFR to VFR conditions through around 14Z to
16Z Wednesday. Clearing skies at all three TAF sites after 14Z to
16Z Wednesday will result in VFR conditions. North to northeast
winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts near 25 to 30 knots will prevail
at all three TAF sites through 18Z Wednesday. Showers and possible
thunderstorms are expected to impact the three TAF sites mainly
between around 06Z to 08Z Wednesday to around 14Z to 16Z



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 604 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

Westerly winds will turn to the north behind a cold front which
will move through the TAF sites today. Showers are expected to
form behind the front this evening and overnight, with GUY having
the best chance of rain. There could be some thunderstorms mixed
in with the showers, but they are expected to be too isolated to
mention at any given TAF site. Low clouds in the MVFR range are
expected to spread from north to south behind the cold front as

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

Latest observations shows a surface trough entering the western
Panhandles out ahead of a cold front still draped across portions
of northwest Kansas at this time. The surface trough along with
the localized height gradient moving south ahead of the cold front
will help to generate gusty southwesterly winds, especially
across the south central and southwestern Texas Panhandle with
winds sustained winds of 20-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH at
times. With low RH values ahead of the cold front in areas with
gusty winds in the southern TX Panhandle, elevated fire weather
conditions are also possible. The cold front will enter the OK
Panhandle in the early afternoon hours and will progress southward
toward the southern TX Panhandle by early evening hours. The
majority of the precipitation will be associated with the upper
level trough that will swing east across the region late Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning as an 700 hPa upper level trough
moving into the area with a good theta-e gradient with the best
chances of showers and thunderstorms across the northern
Panhandles. Some of the local hi-res models shows convection as
early as 01-03Z Wednesday across the northwestern areas. If enough
convection develops in the northwestern areas behind the front
associated with the upper level feature, this can cool the column
enough to the point where a some remnant rain showers in the
early morning hours on Wednesday will mix with some snow flakes
across areas of far NW TX Panhandle and far western OK Panhandle.
High temperatures today will range from the mid 60s in the NW to
upper 80s in the SE TX Panhandle well ahead of the cold front. By
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, areas in the northwest will
drop into the mid 30s while the rest of the region will have low
temps in the low to mid 40s.

Latest 25/00Z model and probabilistic data have trended the main
upper level trough for Wednesday morning slightly further to the
south which may prolong the precipitation throughout the day. Rain
is expected to leave the region by Wednesday afternoon. With the
trough exiting the region, northerly winds behind the front will
then shift to southeasterly by Thursday morning under a zonal
upper level pattern. Temperatures will rebound to near to slightly
above average for late April as we conclude the work week. With
the exception of an isolated shower/thunderstorm across the OK
Panhandle, the rest of the area will remain mostly dry for
Thursday and Friday.

As we go from Friday night through the weekend, there will be a
few chances of additional showers as a cold front works its way
southeast across the region. With cooling temperatures and the
main forcing along the now stalled front across portions of
northwest Texas across the established baroclinic zone,
thunderstorms should be limited across the Panhandles. A second,
further equatorward displaced positive upper level trough with
upper level low centered over central Colorado will move slowly to
the east through the weekend into Kansas. This will provide a few
rounds of precipitation. With established low and mid level CAA
across the region by Saturday morning, temperatures will remain
below average throughout the weekend. By Saturday evening,
rain/snow conditions are introduced into the forecast across the
northwestern Panhandles as temperatures by Saturday night across
the northwestern areas will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s to
support some frozen precipitation. Details of the exact
precipitation amounts will be further analyzed as we get closer
with time. The bulk of the precipitation will exit the region by
Monday with temperatures rebounding to near average.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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