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000
FXUS64 KAMA 251154 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
654 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ LOW CLOUDS AT THE KAMA TERMINAL WITH MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AND REMAIN AT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15-20
KTS MID MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
DRYLINE WHICH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
OF STORMS DEVELOPING IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN THE PROGGED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY THE SAME
AS SEEN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. BROAD SW FLOW TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. THE SFC DRYLINE
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUSING BOUNDARY FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...FOLLOWED BY ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS SECONDARY
MECHANISMS. IT APPEARS TSTM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE MID LEVEL
WARM LAYER...BETTER KNOWN AS A CAPPING INVERSION...IS ABLE TO BE
BREACHED. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS THRU TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...ALL MODELS
STRENGTHEN THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THAT DAY AND NIGHT WITH THE IDEA THAT PERHAPS LESS THAN 20 POP VALUES
MIGHT FIT THE BILL BETTER. HOWEVER...LOCAL OFFICE POLICY DICTATES
THAT LESS THAN 20 POPS CAN BE USED AS MENTIONABLE VALUES ONLY FOR THE
FIRST AND SECOND PERIODS...SO THOSE TYPE OF VALUES CAN BE UTILIZED IF
NECESSARY WHEN THE SUN AND SUN NIGHT TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.
NEVERTHELESS...IF ANY STORMS MANAGE TO FORM...THEY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UA
PATTERN AND HANDLING OF WRN US TROF FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THATS
THE GOOD NEWS. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE 00Z ECMWF IS TRENDING
TOWARDS THE MORE OPEN AND NOT AS AMPLIFIED GFS SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH IT
IS A BIT SLOWER STILL THAN THE GFS. OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
CONVERGING ON A MORE OPEN SOLUTION AS WELL. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE
MORAL MAJORITY MODELS VERIFY...PRECIP CHANCES MAY NOT BE AS GOOD FOR
TX AND OK PNHDLS AS DRY SLOTTING MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR WED
AND WED NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT PERHAPS ERN SECTIONS.
THEREFORE...HELD ON TO 20 POPS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT FOR THIS PCKG
SINCE THE ECMWF STILL HINTS AT SOME PRECIP. WITH MOST MODELS
SUGGESTING A FASTER EJECTION OF WRN US TROF...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THU.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY
DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ALONG
WITH FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$