Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 181747
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1247 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19/18Z IS HIGH AT
KDHT AND KGUY. PESKILY PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES NEAR KAMA.
RENEWED CLOUDINESS SPREADING EASTWARD WILL THREATEN LOW VFR /NEAR
MVFR/ CEILINGS THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER
IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND GENERALLY FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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