Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 022049
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

NO OVERWHELMING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO ABOUND LATER IN THE PERIOD.  ONE OF THE MAIN SOURCES OF
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE THE TROPICS AS TS DOLLY IN THE WRN GULF
AND TS NORBERT IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTE MOISTURE
TO THE PATTERN EVENTUALLY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE OVERALL
UPR AIR PATTERN EVOLUTION IN WAYS THAT WILL NOT BE WELL MODELED.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THE LIGHT
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WED AND THU WILL BE MUCH BREEZIER DAYS AS SSW
WINDS PICK UP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WRN OK PANHANDLE THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT SLIPPING IN AND ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHRTWV.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
TRIED VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN A TIME PERIOD OR LOCATION WHERE PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST BUT WEAK FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE MEANS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. DO THINK
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER IN THIS
PERIOD. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONGEALING A BIT BETTER ON TEMPERATURES
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  94  68  92  67 /  10   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  71  99  73  96  68 /  10  10   5   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              66  95  67  92  62 /   5  10   5  10  30
BORGER TX                  72  97  71  96  70 /  10   5   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              69  96  69  94  69 /   5   5   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  68  93  67  92  66 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               70  94  69  94  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 66  96  66  93  64 /   5   5   5   5  20
GUYMON OK                  69  99  70  95  65 /  10  10   5   5  30
HEREFORD TX                67  93  65  91  65 /   5   5   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                72  96  72  95  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   70  94  69  93  68 /  10   5   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                72  94  71  94  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              74  95  73  96  71 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/09




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