Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 052018
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
318 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE LOOKING UP...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON UP INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PRETTY STRONG FOR TIME OF YEAR...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SUNSET MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG IT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON JUST HOW MUCH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
GONE WITH A COMPROMISE...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
HINDERED SOME BY THE STABLE AIR MASS THAT SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS PUTS THE
PANHANDLES IN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW SHOULD HELP
TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLES BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP US DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  86  63  74  61 /  20  60  60  30  30
BEAVER OK                  74  87  64  80  59 /  20  40  20  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              66  80  59  77  58 /  30  40  20  10  30
BORGER TX                  74  89  66  76  63 /  10  40  40  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              70  86  63  77  61 /  20  40  50  20  30
CANYON TX                  68  87  63  74  59 /  10  80  70  30  30
CLARENDON TX               70  90  66  75  62 /  10  90  80  40  40
DALHART TX                 66  82  61  78  60 /  20  40  40  20  30
GUYMON OK                  71  84  63  79  59 /  20  40  20  10  20
HEREFORD TX                69  88  64  75  61 /  10  70  70  30  30
LIPSCOMB TX                73  88  65  77  62 /  10  50  50  30  20
PAMPA TX                   69  88  63  72  60 /  10  40  50  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                71  93  66  75  63 /   5 100  90  40  30
WELLINGTON TX              72  94  68  76  65 /   5 100  90  50  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

01/15




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