Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 270524
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1224 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 06Z
Sunday. Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots will become
southwest to west after 07Z to 09Z Saturday. At the Amarillo TAF
site, the west winds may increase to around 10 to 20 knots with
gusts near 25 knots after 19Z to 21Z Saturday and then shift to
the north 15 to 25 knots with gusts near 30 knots after 00Z to 02Z
Sunday. At the Dalhart and Guymon TAF sites, winds will shift to
the northwest and north 10 to 20 knots and then increasing to 15
to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 to 35 knots after 20Z Saturday
to 00Z Sunday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 618 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

AVIATION...
Southerly winds will veer after midnight to a more southwest to
west direction. A cold front will move through the GUY and DHT
TAF sites around mid day Saturday switching the winds around to
the north. AMA should remain gusty out of the west as the cold
front may not make it there until just beyond this forecast. Skies
are expected to remain VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Diffuse frontal boundary has retreated northward, into southwest
Texas Panhandle.  Few cumulus developing in strongly capped
environment.  Shortwave trof will drive boundary a bit farther
northeast this evening.  Localized region of higher instability
with trof may support isolated thunderstorms this evening in
northeast part of forecast area.

On Saturday, surface wave expected to develop, with cold
developing cold front dropping into northern sections.
Thunderstorms could develop across northern sections Saturday
afternoon and evening owing to post-frontal moisture and
instability as another compact shortwave trof traverses the area.

Sunday and Sunday night expected to remain dry as cold front moves
well south of forecast area.

On Monday and Monday night, a few thunderstorms may move off of
the higher terrain into western sections.  Low-level moisture
return gets underway late Tuesday, with chances for showers and
thunderstorms beginning to increase.  GFS ensembles continue idea
of next incoming system providing support for Gulf to remain
open, with abundant moisture for daily convection Wednesday
through Friday.

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/24


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