Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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840
FXUS64 KAMA 081709
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1109 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE BASED ON TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. 12Z MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWED A SHALLOW VERY DRY LAYER AND AS MIXING HAS INCREASE DEW POINTS
HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS I WRITE THIS THE DEW
POINT AT THE MCLEAN AND CLARENDON WEST TEXAS MESONET SITES ARE 2 AND
0 RESPECTIVELY. MEMPHIS MESONET IS -3. AS MIXING DEEPENS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MORE MOIST AIR PER THE 12Z SOUNDING...DOWNWARD TRENDS
IN THE DEW POINTS SHOULD STOP AND SLIGHT INCREASE IS POSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH SHOULD STILL REACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY...THEN BACKING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY
AND DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EAST. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE FOUND FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

A RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
SOME BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT SHOULD BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TURPIN OKLAHOMA TO
CLARENDON TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 15 TO
20 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IF
WINDS CAN INCREASE ENOUGH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/6



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