Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 060951
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
451 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID 60S. A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONTINUES ITS SOUTHERLY TRACK
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. STILL EVEN AT THIS SHORT RANGE...SOME
DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS BETWEEN THE MODELS...GIVING THE SHORT TERM PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. APPEARS THE FRONT WILL MOVE
FREELY THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY
TODAY...BUT THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT IN THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FRONTAL POSITION AND ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN HOW THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN
SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL
LOCATION...PWAT VALUES OF 1.75-2+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY SO FEEL PRETTY
CONFIDENT IN INCLUDING THOSE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. QUESTIONS START ARISING
FOR THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE WATCH AND THE TEMPORAL EXTENT...AND
WILL PASS THESE CONCERNS ALONG FOR THE NEXT SHIFT TO CONSIDER AS
FRONTAL PROGRESS BECOMES MORE APPARENT. HEAVY RAINFALL DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO DEPEND GREATLY ON THE FRONT. SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...30 TO 40KTS AT MOST BUT
ARE POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE BEHIND THE MAIN FORCING AT THE
SURFACE AND IN AN AREA OF LESS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. AREAS FURTHER
SOUTH SHOULD BE ABLE TO REALIZE SOME FAIRLY DECENT INSTABILITY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES TONIGHT AND
REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF THE RIDGE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AND FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BEYOND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD NORTHWARD
ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME AND ATTEMPTED TO NARROW DOWN THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS AND TIMES...BUT WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW...SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DRIVE THOSE FACTORS AND WILL BE BETTER RESOLVED
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE BUILDING AND
SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                87  62  73  60  81 /  70  90  40  20  20
BEAVER OK                  88  63  79  59  82 /  60  50  30  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              81  58  76  58  84 /  60  40  20  10  30
BORGER TX                  90  64  75  61  83 /  60  80  40  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              89  62  76  60  86 /  70  70  30  20  20
CANYON TX                  88  62  73  59  82 /  70  90  40  20  20
CLARENDON TX               91  65  74  61  82 /  50 100  60  30  20
DALHART TX                 85  61  77  59  86 /  60  60  20  20  30
GUYMON OK                  85  62  78  59  84 /  60  40  20  10  20
HEREFORD TX                90  63  74  60  83 /  70  70  40  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                90  64  76  60  81 /  70  80  60  20  20
PAMPA TX                   88  61  71  59  80 /  60  80  50  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                92  66  74  62  82 /  50  90  70  40  30
WELLINGTON TX              94  68  75  64  83 /  40  90  70  50  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/18




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