Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 031816 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
116 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST...INCREASING POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES BEGINNING AT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.  HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED MORNING POPS IN EASTERN SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING CONVECTION.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM TUESDAY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUING FLOODING ISSUES IN EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT
EXPECTATION IS THAT WATCH WILL BE ABLE TO BE CLEARED FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE GUY TAF SITE HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT THE EXACT TIME THAT A THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT A TAF
SITE...SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TONIGHT AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15
KNOTS OR LESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE AGAIN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING. EARLY THIS MORNING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION ON
RADAR WAS DECREASING AND IR SATELLITE SHOWED WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WAS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. CONVECTION
EARLIER IN THE EVENING WAS PROBABLY ROBUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
OVERTURNING AND LOW LEVEL DRYING WHICH MAY HAVE NEGATIVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIAL. LATEST GPS DATA AND
BLENDED TPW SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
ANOMALOUS BUT STILL VERY HIGH AND SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

MODELS AGREE ON SHORTWAVE SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA AND INTERACTING WITH DEEP MOIST PLUME AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY RESULTING IN THE LIKELY FORMATION OF SLOW MOVING HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS CONSIDERED AND DISCUSSED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND
THE CONSENSUS WAS TO HOLD OFF FOR THIS PACKAGE. 12Z RAOB AND
SUBSEQUENT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE PLUS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS MAY INCREASE
CONFIDENCE LATER THIS MORNING. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WITH MORE ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING CONCERNS FURTHER SOUTH INCLUDING AMARILLO. STORMS
COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK 250 MB SPEED MAX WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AND MAY RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
THAN HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL EVENINGS. WIND WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS
SHOULD BRING A DRIER PATTERN ALTHOUGH LOW PROBABILITIES WERE RETAINED
FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                87  65  92  68  96 /  40  60   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  90  68  92  68  97 /  50  80  20  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              86  63  91  65  95 /  60  70   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  89  69  94  71  97 /  40  60   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              90  67  94  68  98 /  40  60   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  89  65  94  68  97 /  40  50   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               89  68  95  71  99 /  40  60   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 89  66  94  66  96 /  60  70   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  88  66  92  67  97 /  60  80  10   5   5
HEREFORD TX                89  65  94  68  96 /  40  50   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                90  70  94  70  99 /  40  80  20  10   5
PAMPA TX                   87  67  92  69  96 /  40  70  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                89  69  95  70 100 /  40  70  20   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              91  70  97  72 101 /  40  60  20   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/03





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