Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 231728
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS MOST OF
THE PANHANDLES...THOUGH SOME AREAS ARE STARTING TO SCATTER
OUT...CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN NEAR MVFR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 10 TO 15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BY EARLY EVENING...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN TAFS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
COVERAGE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS...MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
EAST OF THE TERMINALS SO WILL OMIT MENTION FROM TAFS FOR NOW.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUE TO CAPTURE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST. MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO EXPAND INTO FAR WEST
TX...INCLUDING THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW CHURNING
ALONG THE UT/AZ BORDER AND AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED TO 40-50 KTS IN RESPONSE TO
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GREATEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS FAR HAS BEEN IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TERMINUS
OF THE LLJ.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND
MARCH EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE LLJ WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHERLY...CONTINUING TO PUMP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THE INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF FORCING AND ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...STORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AS THEY WORK ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH THIS
VIA STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND HEAVY RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED AS THE CONVECTION TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT SOME
OF THE STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL NM HAVE ALREADY DUMPED OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO IT ATTM...ALTHOUGH WESTERN PORTIONS WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO
EXIST WITH THESE STORMS. MUCAPES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH REACHING AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY OVER 1000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION /40-50 KTS/...BUT THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO GROW UPSCALE SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING. EXPECT HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS
THE MCS PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THEN WE/LL HAVE TO SEE HOW WELL THE
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING. SOME DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO ADVECT INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
SOUTHEAST CO. HOWEVER...AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...SO IF WE SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY
WEAKENED...MODEST INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR
WILL REMAIN STRONG...SO SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE DEPENDING ON THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES AS DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. FORCING WILL BE WEAKER AND
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE WEAKER AS WELL...BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STILL
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR SOME SEVERE RISK. HEADING
INTO MEMORIAL DAY...A WEAKER SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE PARENT
UPPER TROUGH COULD KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS. SHEAR
WILL BE WEAKER BY THEN...BUT INSTABILITY STILL DECENT FOR SOME
STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION.

CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL DECREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT THEN PICK RIGHT BACK UP BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...POTTER...
     RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$

18/03




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