Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 220530 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1130 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs, little change to previous aviation AFD reasoning.
Expect MVFR cigs to persist through the morning hours at the
terminal sites. Clearing skies are then anticipated Thursday
afternoon with associated VFR conditions following.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 637 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, expect MVFR cigs to persist for most of this
fcst cycle. Clearing skies are then expected Thursday afternoon.

Andrade

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 407 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Models continue to perform poorly with the ongoing moisture
placement. The best moisture has been mostly edged out of our area
to the east and can be seen in water vapor with a dry wedge trying
to creep in. Hi-res models were finally catching on late this
morning to the snow in the northwest and the sleet in the
far southeast. However, those same models that then tried to erase
moisture from the area are ignoring the sleet and freezing rain
happening just to our south in Lubbock`s area. Sounding profiles
for the area would suggest that freezing drizzle to sleet or even
hints of very light snow could be possible for tonight for
everyone. Seeing more dry air filter north on water vapor leaves
much doubt that everyone would see the moisture hit the ground.
Watching the pattern of moisture move northeasterly does provide
confidence towards the southeast possibly seeing something make it
to ground so have left in chances for precip tonight for that
area. Thinking that the rest of the area will be in for a thick
overcast deck, but wouldn`t be shocked to see some places see
light freezing drizzle since models just can`t latch on very well.
Do think that this system should pull away from the area enough by
morning that drier conditions should prevail.

After this current system departs, the area can mostly expect to
be dry for the remainder of the next 7 days. The upper level
longwave trough that is currently over southern California/Nevada
will see a low pressure center descend from Canada and combine
with this trough as it pushes east towards the region. By midday
Saturday, the wave passes the Panhandles and brings a quick shot
of precip for the far southeast area to get clipped. A shortwave
will move through the region Sunday but remain dry. There is a
suggestion of the next big system will come for the area Tuesday
into Wednesday next week. This may be the next shot for precip but
models are only hinting of this possibility for now.

Beat

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather may be possible on Saturday, Sunday, and
Monday for the western Panhandles. RFTI values will be around 1 to
2. RH values during these days will be between 10 and 20 percent.
Winds will be the strongest on Saturday and be around 20 to 25
mph. Winds will be southwesterly on Friday and turning
northwesterly Saturday, swing back to southerly Sunday morning, by
Sunday evening be back to northerly, and turn back to southerly by
Monday afternoon.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the
     following zones: Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...Hemphill...
     Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...Wheeler.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the
     following zones: Beaver.


&&

$$


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