Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 241102 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
602 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Gusty southwest winds will be common today. Winds will then slow
this evening and become more westerly. Skies are expected to
remain VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

As we go throughout the day today, high temperatures will be well
above normal with high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to
some areas reaching the lower 90s. Under the mid level zonal flow
across the region, a surface trough will develop along the NM/TX
border. This will enhance downslope flow and advect into the
region H850 temperatures of 23C to 26C as seen in the latest
24/00Z numerical guidance. Winds will be sustained from the
southwest between 15-25 kts with gusts approaching 30 kts,
especially across the western Panhandles. In-conjunction with low
RH values, elevated fire weather conditions are possible across
the far western Panhandles. Going into Tuesday, a cold front will
work its way through the region. In-conjunction with the surface
cold front, a rather strong mid level vorticity maximum will swing
across the base of a mid level positive tilted trough. Gusty
southwest winds ahead of the front will then shift to northerly
winds of 15-20 kts as the front works its way through the region.
Latest 24/00Z global and probabilistic data shows the best chances
of measurable precipitation across the northern TX Panhandle and
Oklahoma Panhandle from Tuesday evening through early Wednesday
morning. Some of these storms may produce some gusty winds as some
of the upper air profile guidances are hinting at a deep mixed
environment with some momentum transfer, especially just ahead of
the front.

As the axis of the upper level trough moves over parts of the
northern CWA by early Wednesday morning, some wrap around dynamics
will bring some additional showers across the OK Panhandle.
Otherwise, cooler temperatures and tranquil conditions will return
to the area for the remainder of Wednesday with high temperatures
below average behind the front. A zonal flow will return to the
region during the latter half of the week with low pressure
perturbations ejecting east from portions of the southern Rockies
which will bring a chance of a shower or thunderstorm to the
northern Panhandles. Otherwise, temperatures will rebound to near
or just above average for late April.

Still several days out, with low confidence agreement between the
latest global models, a deepening upper level Low across the Four
Corners region with a deepening sinusoidal 250 hPa flow will
provide good upper level support for a development of a low
pressure system over northwest Texas. Timing and exact location
are still not in agreement at this time, but as a building ridge
expands across the South Carolina to north Florida Atlantic
coastline, the main trough axis to the west of the region expands
equatorward as we go through the day on Saturday for a more
meridional steering flow across the southern Plains. As a result,
the developing surface low over NW Texas is forecasted to move
northeast into portions of western Oklahoma. In association with
the surface Low, showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
approaching frontal system across the eastern Panhandles are
possible. On the back side of the cold front, temperatures by
Saturday night maybe cold enough across the far northwestern areas
for a rain/snow mix. We will update the forecast as we get closer
to the up and coming weekend. A cool weekend is in the current
forecast with many locations below normal for late April.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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