Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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746
FXUS64 KAMA 252335
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
635 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs - Scattered thunderstorms will move into the western
Panhandles later this evening and affect KDHT, and possibly KGUY
though confidence wasn`t high enough to include TS mention there at
this time. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected
everywhere through the TAF period except KGUY where confidence has
increased that IFR ceilings will be a concern early Tuesday morning.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday evening for the
Panhandles.

Elsenheimer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows upper ridge beginning to amplify over the
four corners region resulting in increased 500mb northwesterly flow
over the TX/OK Panhandles. This in combination with decent mid and
upper level moisture will result in increasing chances for
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening as a subtle wave
approaches from the northwest. At the surface... dew points are in
the low to mid 60s. Typical summertime mixing will result in 30-
40 degree dew point depressions... but with highs only in the low
to mid 90s the spreads won`t be as high as the last few days. A
weak stationary boundary is also noted from near Hereford to
Clarendon where storms are initiating with day time heating prior
to aforementioned upper level disturbance. As better upper level
forcing comes in with wave...storms will increase in coverage
especially along our western Zones. With precipitable water
expected to be above 1.5 inches...heavy rain is possible. Severe
weather is not expected with skinny CAPE profiles and bulk shear
generally less than 20kts across the area. Slightly better 100mb
mixed CAPE up across the OK Panhandle may lend a few stronger
storms with small hail and gusty winds. Storms will start
decreasing across the area after 06Z Tuesday as better dynamics
move south and decoupling commences.

The forecast for the next few days is very similar to today as
subtle waves continue to round the base of the high pressure to our
west and move in on northwesterly flow aloft. Latest model guidance
does keep rain chances a bit lower for Tuesday with very little in
terms of forcing/dynamics progged. Still can`t rule out a
diurnally driven afternoon thunderstorm especially across the
northwest. A more pronounced shortwave embedded in northwesterly
flow approaches on Wednesday with a surface boundary pushing into
the area resulting a better chance for scattered storms. Temperatures
will be much more tolerable this week with highs mainly in the 90s
across the area due to increased cloud cover. At this time...
models are trying to bring the upper ridge back over the southern
Plains towards the end of next weekend. However...there are
differences between the ECMWF and GFS on timing with GFS being
faster resulting in a drier forecast for Saturday and Sunday.
Decided to put a little more weight in ECMWF solution resulting in
precip chances across the area on Saturday. By early next week
confidence is fairly high for the ridge to slide back east putting
a damper on rain chances and increasing our high temperatures once
again.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

18/10



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