Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 311707 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR BELOW AS THEY VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS FORECAST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A SFC TROF WILL MEANDER AROUND THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL CAUSE WINDS TO GO AROUND THE DIAL DURG THIS FCST
CYCLE. ISOLD HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THIS WEATHER ELEMENT OUT OF THE KAMA
AND KGUY TAFS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...LOW TO MID 80S...SO WITH DAYTIME HEATING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER...AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE NOW LAGGING BEHIND PEAK HEATING
SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE. LOCATION WILL VARY AS
THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS SOUTH. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOME DISCUSSION ON HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFTS AND ANY RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH COULD SHIFT THE POTENTIAL EAST OF OUR
AREA. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES
BELOW THURSDAY HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE DRYLINE SETUP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW AS PLACEMENT AND TIMING CONTINUE TO VARY.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW...AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT 20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
MPH AND PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ON WEDNESDAY THINGS CHANGE AS 20FT
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY...AND CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. FOR NOW WINDS LOOK MARGINAL TO
REACH CRITICAL OUTSIDE OF A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL PASS ALONG TO THE
DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08





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