Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
543 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

12Z TAF Cycle

Low cloudiness at the Amarillo TAF site will result in IFR to MVFR
conditions until around 14Z to 16Z today. After 16Z today, the
Amarillo TAF site will see VFR conditions through 12Z Wednesday.
The Dalhart and Guymon TAF sites will see VFR conditions through
12Z Wednesday. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible
later today, after 21Z today, across the Oklahoma and northwest
Texas Panhandles which could impact both the Dalhart and Guymon
TAF sites. However, confidence is too low on timing to include in
this TAF forecast package. May include a VCTS remark for now for
either one or both of the TAF sites. Southeast to south and
southwest winds 5 to 15 knots will increase to around 10 to 20
knots after 14Z to 16Z today at all three TAF sites.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 418 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/


Main items for this forecast include the downward trend in
temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, and therefore no need for
headlines regarding heat advisories at this time. Otherwise,
thunderstorm chances remain across the Panhandles for several days
in this forecast package, and the chance for severe weather will be
possible at the very least today and tomorrow across the area.
Widespread severe weather does not appear likely.

For today, a surface trough will be evident across eastern Colorado,
so most of the surface forcing will be north of the forecast area.
The best chance for severe thunderstorms today will be across
northwestern parts of the Texas Panhandle and western parts of the
Oklahoma Panhandle where an axis of 3000-4000 J/kg of most unstable
CAPE is being forecast. Bulk shear (0-6 km) values are not that
impressive but decent enough around 30-40 knots to help support some
rotating updrafts. Forecast soundings are depicting high LCL heights
and an inverted-V profile with large dew point depressions at the
surface. The threat for tornadoes looks minimal at best today, but
strong wind gusts do look more likely. Large hail will also be
possible in some of the more discrete cells. On Wednesday, a similar
setup is anticipated with high LCL and an inverted-V profile.
Surface forcing will be a little stronger as southerly winds
increase in intensity, and mid level lapse rates will be higher on
Wednesday as well. Of the next two days, it appears Wednesday is the
better day to support severe weather across the Panhandles. Less
instability around on Thursday, but there are also signs pointing to
the chance for severe weather as well, mainly across northern
portions of the forecast area, but confidence is less likely on
Thursday than compared to today and Wednesday.

Models have trended downward slightly in regards to high
temperatures on both Wednesday and Thursday; as a result, went
ahead and lowered highs slightly on both days. Wind speeds are
more southerly/southeasterly pulling in more moisture and cloud
chances (especially Wednesday). The difference in highs is small
but definitely noticeable and worth mentioning since we have been
talking about possible heat advisories. Some areas will be around
100-105, so we may still need to highlight the concern for heat
across the area on these two days.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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