Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 010447 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1047 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Cold night once again on tap. Little cirrus coming in from west will
likely have little impact. No changes were needed to previous
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

No concerns this period. VFR will prevail. Winds will clock around
from a more s-sw direction to the NNE and eventually east through
the period but will remain light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 545 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

AVIATION...
No concerns this period. VFR will prevail. Winds will clock around
from a more s-sw direction to the NNE through the period but will
remain light.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Highlights will include the precipitation chances Friday night
through Saturday, which is the most noteworthy item in this forecast
package. Especially of concern for interstate impacts is a
transition zone of rain to snow with mix precipitation type.
Snowfall amounts were the biggest overall change, which involved
lowering from the previous forecast. Otherwise, highs will be near
normal to below normal with 40s and 50s forecast through the
Tuesday.

Models are trending warmer with this system Friday night, and hence
raised minimum temperatures Saturday morning, which ultimately
lowers chances for snowfall. GFS ensembles continue to show the
probability for precipitation greater to our south/southeast where
temperatures are higher and this has been the trend for a couple
days now; as a result, confidence at this time is moderate for
snowfall chances overall to be limited with lacking QPF in the
cooler atmospheric areas. Currently, we have about half-an-inch to
an inch across our northwest which is probably on the high end right
now. Analogs (CIPS Analog) and Reforecast/Reanalysis (from NCEPs
Global Ensemble Forecasting System) both show snowfall chances
greater to our northwest, where QPF is forecast to be the lowest.
These forecast tools from CIPS and NCEP also suggest overall
snowfall chances are limited. In other words, there are more factors
in our favor for less snow than those factors in favor for snowfall.
The main concern is having one of the outlier models verify with
QFP, where we could see snowfall amounts of over an inch to verify.
That being said, confidence is not high for that to come to
fruition. Several factors led to the reduction in snowfall. Also,
forcing will be limited to mainly isentropic lift as high pressure
resides over the area. Dynamics are just synoptically not in our
favor for this event as the upper level low digs far south into
western Mexico from essentially Canada/Northwestern CONUS. Of
particular concern will be if/where our transition zone sets up from
rain to snow. If we get any ice, this will impact travel Saturday
morning, especially west of Amarillo on interstate 40.

Outside of this event to start the weekend, we have another shot at
precipitation the middle of next week. Confidence is low with that
next system, but we could be very cold (highs in the 30s for a good
portion of the outlook area Wednesday) the middle of next week, so
snow would be likely Tuesday night if we do get any precipitation,
but this is too far out to have much confidence so only mention.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

88/88



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