Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 191740 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE IN PROCESS OF VEERING TO A MORE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DIRECTION WHICH WILL CONTINUE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. WIND SHIFT TO A MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SEEMS LIKELY EARLY TO MID MORNING FRI. WIND SPEEDS TO
REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM/

UPDATE...
UPADATED FORECAST TO TEST OFFICE BACKUP CAPABILITIES. NO FORECAST
CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

AVIATION...
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTHERLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST. SKIES
WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES. A WEAK INFLUX OF
SURFACE RIDGING FROM A PACIFIC AIRMASS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT WINDS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL WEATHER IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED.

A WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE
PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MINIMAL AFFECT...
BUT ITS PASSAGE WILL MARK THE ONSET OF MOIST ADVECTION AS A MUCH MORE
DYNAMIC UPPER AIR SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. AS
SUCH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY/MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG NORTH OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL
BE STALLED NEAR THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS SPREAD EASTWARD AND
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DEEPENS ALONG A TRAJECTORY TO PASS OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS. FORCING/ASCENT WILL CERTAINLY BE MAXIMIZED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BUT MAY BE JUST
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAVE MAINTAINED 20 TO 30
PERCENT POPS.

SATURDAY/S PASSING SYSTEM WILL BE ABSORBED BY A BROAD SCALE UPPER AIR
TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY.
SUBTLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL UPPER AIR JET
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF SAID TROUGH SPREADS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ASSOCIATED PUSH OF COOL PACIFIC AIR RIDGES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THEREAFTER...THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THIS
PATTERN WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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