Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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007
FXUS64 KAMA 171736
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites with winds 6 to
12kts. LLWS will still be possible from 05z-13z tonight at KAMA.
WS is marginal but right around 30kts from sfc to 700ft AGL.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1029 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

UPDATE...Clear skies prevail this morning with temperatures
warming up quite nicely. There is an exception as a cold patch of
air still lingers in and around the Guymon area. Have updated the
grids to bring temperatures in line with present trends,
especially considering the slow warmup around Guymon. Otherwise,
the rest of the forecast remains on track.

Bieda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 503 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

DISCUSSION... Not too many changes made to the forecast package
compared to the one previously issued. Dry weather will prevail
across the forecast area through the daytime hours on Friday as
west to northwest flow aloft continues over the region. A minor
upper level shortwave trof is progged by short and medium range
models to track across the srn high plains late Thursday and
Thursday night. Most models are dry with this system except the
00Z GFS. Have omitted pops for this package during this time frame
and leaned with the majority solution pending better model
agreement with respect to precipitation potential.

Enough moisture may be in place later Friday into Saturday across
mainly the eastern zones ahead of the next upper level shortwave
trof and associated cold front to support mention of pops. Medium
range models, including the 00Z ECMWF, are in much better agreement
with the upper level trof being an open wave and moving across
the region Saturday as opposed to closing off downstate. The
corresponding cold front is fcst to track across the OK and TX
Panhandles on Saturday. Based on better model agreement this
morning, have restricted pops to the eastern sections Friday night
through Saturday night. A return to dry weather is then anticipated
Sunday through next Tuesday.

Andrade

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                81  48  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  80  45  83  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              80  43  81  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  82  51  84  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              82  46  84  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  82  47  82  50  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               79  48  82  52  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 81  43  81  45  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  80  44  83  47  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                81  46  82  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                79  46  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   80  48  82  51  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                78  47  81  52  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              79  47  82  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/98/2



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