Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 170953
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
352 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
352 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Fairly quiet and mild weather expected today and Saturday as closed
mid-level low over Permian Basin lifts northeast, allowing light
winds and a mostly clear sky to prevail while brief ridging sets up
tonight and Saturday.

Next shortwave trof crosses the Rockies on Sunday, generating a low-
level response of southerly winds, tapping Gulf moisture.

Dryline expected to sharpen during the day on Sunday, providing a
focus for thunderstorm development.  Have retained pops Sunday and
Sunday evening, with higher chances across eastern zones where
deeper and richer moisture will be positioned and will remain until
eradicated by passage of dryline Sunday afternoon and evening.

Cold air aloft will strengthen mid-level lapse rates as moderately
strong dynamics arrive.  A few thunderstorms could become strong to
marginally severe across eastern sections Sunday afternoon and
evening with hail up to one inch, winds up to 60 MPH and brief heavy
rains.

Mild conditions resume Monday through Wednesday as mid-level ridge
prevails in wake of departing shortwave trof or closed low.  Next
system expected to cause dry and windy conditions on Thursday.  03

Cockrell

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Although relative humidity values are expected to fall below 20
percent today across the western half of the Panhandles, no elevated
or critical fire weather conditions are expected due to light to
moderate winds.  No elevated or critical fire weather conditions are
expected Saturday through Monday as relative humidities remain above
necessary thresholds.  Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday and
Sunday night.  Relative humidities fall below 20 percent on Tuesday
and Wednesday across the western half of the Panhandles, but winds
are expected to remain too light to create elevated or critical fire
weather conditions.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely to occur on
Thursday, primarily across the western three-fourths of the
Panhandles as dry southwest winds increase.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                69  37  68  43  66 /   0   0   0   0  30
Beaver OK                  71  36  68  43  68 /   0   0   0   0  40
Boise City OK              67  35  65  39  64 /   0   0   0   0  30
Borger TX                  69  38  69  45  67 /   0   0   0   0  30
Boys Ranch TX              71  35  69  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  30
Canyon TX                  69  36  69  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  30
Clarendon TX               69  40  69  43  67 /   0   0   0   0  50
Dalhart TX                 69  34  67  38  63 /   0   0   0   5  30
Guymon OK                  70  35  68  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  30
Hereford TX                70  36  69  41  65 /   0   0   0   5  30
Lipscomb TX                71  38  70  44  66 /   0   0   0   5  30
Pampa TX                   70  39  67  43  65 /   0   0   0   0  40
Shamrock TX                71  39  69  44  66 /   0   0   0   5  50
Wellington TX              70  41  69  45  68 /   0   0   0   5  50

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/03



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