Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 160441

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1041 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

06Z TAF Cycle

IFR to VLIFR conditions at the Guymon and Dalhart TAF sites through
about 18Z to 20Z Monday...and at the Amarillo TAF site through about
15Z to 17Z Monday. Periods of freezing rain and/or snow can be
expected at all three TAF sites through about 15Z to 17Z Monday with
areas of freezing fog reducing visibilities to less than a mile at
times. MVFR to VFR conditions expected at the Amarillo and Dalhart TAF
sites after about 17Z to 20Z Monday...and after 00Z to 02Z at the
Guymon TAF site. North to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots will increase
to around 10 to 20 knots after about 15Z to 17Z Monday at all three
TAF sites...then diminishing again to 5 to 15 knots after about 22Z
Monday to 02Z Tuesday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 531 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

00Z TAF Cycle

Precipitation changing over to snow across the northwest Texas
Panhandle and the Dalhart TAF site will likely continue with IFR to
LIFR conditions in mainly snow through about 10Z to 12Z Monday...with
IFR to LIFR ceilings and MVFR conditions in visibilities after about
14Z to 16Z Monday. VFR conditions are expected after 18Z to 20Z
Monday. At the Guymon and Amarillo TAF sites...IFR to LIFR conditions
will continue in mainly freezing rain and also some light snow
through about 10Z to 13Z Monday. MVFR to VFR conditions are expected
to return after 17Z to 20Z Monday at both the Guymon and Amarillo TAF
sites. Northwest to north winds at all three TAF sites 5 to 15 knots.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

Over the next 24 hours, whatever precipitation type you can think of,
it will likely happen across the Panhandles. As aforementioned in
the update section of the AFD, winter weather headlines have been
updated to reflect the precipitation types to move across the
Panhandles region within the next 24 hours. Current observations shows
an upper level low centered over El Paso, moving northeast. Out
ahead of the main upper level low, PWAT anomalies of +3 S.D. for
January as indicated in the 12Z KAMA upper air data continues to show
an abundance of moisture in the area. A surge of moisture from the
Texas south plains is moving northward into the region. With
temperatures hovering near freezing at the surface with the upper
level system moving closer and colder temperatures aloft as a result,
convection associated with this mixed precipitation is likely and
some very small pea size hail with these heavier low topped storms
are possible. At the same time, freezing rain is still being reported
across the far northern TX Panhandle and OK Panhandles were some
areas have seen several tenths of an inch of ice accretion already.

Latest 15/12Z model and probabilistic data continue to show the main
surface low pressure system moving northeast across portions of
western Texas during the evening hours. The tricky part to this
forecast is determining where the center of surface low pressure
system will develop near the baroclinic zone south of the Panhandles
in-conjunction with the upper level vort max swinging northeast from
the base of the upper level trough. If the low pressure system passes
very close to the SE of our region, near Childress, warmer solutions
may continue with a wintry mix and freezing rain for south central
and eastern Panhandles with more snow and sleet for the north
central and northwestern Panhandles. If the low pressure system
tracks further to the east, more cold air will wrap behind the
system. Some of the model profiles and hi-res models suggest perhaps
a deformation band of snowfall to set up, especially across the
central and western Panhandles where several inches of snow could
fall. Best chances of accumulating snowfall will be across the north
central and northwestern TX Panhandle along with the central and
western Oklahoma Panhandle as these regions will be on the NW side of
the departing synoptic system where the best lower level and mid
level deformation may occur. As the upper level low moves near our
region, northerly winds may pack up which could exacerbate the
antecedent accreted ice conditions with winds gusting to near 20 kts
by Monday afternoon. Overall consensus shows an additional half inch
to three quarters of an inch of precipitation before the system
departs tomorrow morning. Low temperatures tonight will not drop off
too much from current values with values ranging from the upper 20s
ands lower 30s for the majority of the Panhandles to mid 30s in the
SE TX Panhandle.

Dry weather and moderating temperatures are then expected for Tuesday
through Friday. Medium range models suggest another upper level low
pressure system may impact the southern high plains on Saturday.
Model consensus is low at this time and will update as we get closer
to next weekend. High temperatures will be above average for the
majority of the work week.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Hemphill...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...Wheeler.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Gray...Hansford...

OK...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Beaver...Texas.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Cimarron.



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