Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 081711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1111 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017


For the 18Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period. This
afternoon will be windy, especially at KDHT AND KGUY. High clouds
should dissipate later today. Small chance for low level wind
shear tonight but it would be marginal and therefore left it out
of the TAF for now.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 528 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017/

12z TAF Cycle:

VFR conditions expected with periods of mid and upper level
clouds. northwest winds will start around 10 knots in the morning
and increase to 23 to 33 knots in the afternoon with higher gusts.
The strongest winds are expected to be near KDHT where wind gusts
approaching 45 knots are possible mainly between 16z and 21z. A
rogue gusts near 40 knots will be possible at KGUY and KAMA during
that time frame. Winds will gradually decrease through the
afternoon back to around 10 knots by evening.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 440 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017/

Strong surface gradients today will result in northerly winds 15
to 25 mph across most of the Panhandles, the exception will be the
northwest Panhandles that will see winds in the 25 to 30 mph range
with gusts up to 40 mph. The far northwest near the NM boarder
may see wind gusts up to 50 mph.

Overall, the general large scale pattern will remain unchanged
for the forecast period. Large blocking ridge continues to hold
over the western CONUS with several systems riding over the ridge
and progressing south along the lee side of the Rockies. The
overall northwest flow will keep us in a dry pattern. Temperatures
will rebound a bit into the 60s over the weekend, and may even
continue into mid next week, as the warmer air is expected to
slide over western Texas. The next cold front looks to be Monday
night, but will be short lived, as warm air advection is expected
to return Tuesday afternoon, keeping highs in the upper 50s to
near 60. Another cold front is expected to bring temperatures down
into the lower to mid 50s on Thursday.


Elevated Fire Weather conditions today across the western
Panhandles. Strong north winds 20 to 30 mph combined with minimum
relative humidities around 20 percent are expected. Some areas
along the northwest Panhandles could see wind gusts 40 to 50 mph
out of the north.


VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period. Winds
should shift from northerly to westerly as we continue into the
early morning hours. Winds will then shift to more northwesterly
and winds will be gusting up to 30 kts at times, especially at
KDHT/KGUY from around 16Z through to around 00Z Saturday. Winds
should then diminish to northwesterly sustained around 10-15 kts
through the end of the TAF period. Mid to high level clouds should
build in during the overnight but clouds will clear out starting
around 18Z Friday.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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