Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 170912
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
412 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Exiting upper low will keep light rain possible for the northern
Panhandles through the overnight hours, but should dissipate
around the morning commute. Dry and breezy conditions are expected
across the Panhandles during the daylight hours under slight
height rises aloft.

Our next system to impact the Panhandles is expected to reach the
Four Corners region by Thursday morning. Low level moisture is
forecast to surge northward in response to the approach of this
low. A sharp dryline in the vicinity of the eastern Panhandles
(mainly off-Caprock counties) as the upper low takes on a negative
tilt around midday. Convection is expected to develop along and
east of the dryline before moving into western Oklahoma/Kansas.
Forecast CAPE values along the eastern Panhandles/western Oklahoma
could exceed 3000 J/kg (NAM exceeds 4000 J/kg) while deep layer
shear 40kt to 55 kt. This would be plenty of instability and
shear for storms to become severe with the potential to create
very large hail (+3 inches) and damaging winds. Curved hodographs
indicate the potential for discrete storms initially which is also
supported in CAMs. Models show, around 00Z, the dryline slightly
backing into the Panhandles further which would result in lower
LCLs. This would introduce a increased tornado threat across the
east which is also supported by an increase in 0-1km helicity
values increasing after 00Z. One interesting note, by 00Z most
CAMs show convection off the dryline and well into western
Oklahoma.

There is disagreement amongst model solutions as to the feature
that will eventually kick the dryline firmly into western Oklahoma
by 06Z. Some models show the pacific front colliding with the
dryline, but others show the surface low moving into western
Oklahoma which brings a wrap around cold front through. Either
scenario will be determined by the upper low center, and
resultant surface low, Thursday night. The GFS is faster with the
low progression which results in a strong lee side low in Colorado
while the slower models don`t develop the surface low as much.
Will lean towards the GFS for now which will bring a lull in
convective activity from midnight onward.

Upper low will likely remain near the Panhandles Friday through
Saturday before ejecting towards the Great Lakes. Retained low end
pops for the better part of the Panhandles into the first half of
the weekend as embedded shortwaves round the upper low. There is
potential for some strong to severe storms Friday afternoon across
the southeastern Texas Panhandle with hail and damaging winds
being the primary hazards.

Sunday during the daytime should be dry, but slight height falls
Sunday evening cloud allow Colorado storms to move across the
northern zones. Monday into Tuesday is forecast to see a longwave
trough sweep over the Panhandles to promote convective chances.
Marginal instability could allow a few storms to become strong.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                82  55  81  51  74 /   0   0   5  20  30
Beaver OK                  84  53  82  53  69 /  10   0  20  40  40
Boise City OK              78  50  71  45  62 /  10   0  30  20  30
Borger TX                  83  56  83  53  72 /   0   0  10  20  30
Boys Ranch TX              82  54  80  49  73 /   0   0   5  20  30
Canyon TX                  81  53  82  51  75 /   0   0   5  20  20
Clarendon TX               82  56  86  57  76 /   0   0  20  30  30
Dalhart TX                 80  51  76  46  66 /   0   0  10  20  30
Guymon OK                  82  51  78  49  66 /  10   0  20  30  30
Hereford TX                81  52  81  50  75 /   0   0   0  20  20
Lipscomb TX                84  55  84  55  72 /  10   0  20  40  40
Pampa TX                   82  56  82  52  72 /   0   0  20  30  30
Shamrock TX                84  55  86  57  77 /   0   0  20  30  40
Wellington TX              86  56  88  60  79 /   0   0  30  40  40

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

15/14



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