Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 262348 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PATCHY BR AND MVFR CIGS PSBL AT KGUY LATE TONIGHT
INTO MID MORNING WED AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THIS TAF CYCLE. ISOLD
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE SHOULD ANY STORMS
FORM...HAVE DECIDED TO REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALMOST RIGHT OVER THE KAMA RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR CLEAR AIR RETURNS AND NOW
THE SCATTERED CU. A LITTLE BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKED INTO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS EARLIER TODAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE HEELS
OF SAID DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST WITH
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THERE NOW. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
DRIFT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES...WITH AMPLE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AND A FEW REMAINING DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS THE MORE LIKELY AREA WILL BE
FURTHER EAST INTO OKLAHOMA.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE DAY AND
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...OFFERING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. SURFACE BASED INGREDIENTS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AS WELL AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SPREAD WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND FORECAST SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG. FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY TO REMOVE LIKELY
MENTION AS BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE RETURN MOVE
EAST...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO COME
OFF THE TROUGH AS IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
AZ/NM. CHANCES LOOK BETTER LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SO HAVE
LEFT POPS A BIT HIGHER EAST AND A LITTLE LOWER WEST AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING A FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP OFF.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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