Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 181753 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1153 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017
For the 18Z TAFs, plenty of high level cloudiness is anticipated
at the TAF sites in advance of an upper level storm system
currently over the southwest United States. This storm system will
move closer to the region later tonight and Sunday morning. Some
patchy fog and attendant MVFR visibilities is expected to develop
at KAMA and KGUY after 09Z Sunday, lasting into the mid to late
morning hours. Any precipitation that forms should remain generally
east of the terminal sites through 18Z Sunday.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 516 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/
For the 12z TAFs...no clouds today other than cirrus remaining
well within VFR range. Light surface winds become southeast
around 15 kt this afternoon, and then continue at lesser speeds
this evening and overnight. Patchy fog expected to develop after
09z Sunday, possibly lowering AMA and GUY into MVFR visibilities
for a few hours.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/
No major changes have been made to the going forecast. Well
above-normal daytime temperatures are expected through Thursday
with highs 10 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit above climo.
Mid-level ridge overhead today will be quickly replaced this
evening with strengthening southwest flow ahead of next digging
shortwave trof. This feature will lend support to development of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday evening.
Areas of fog have been included in forecast late tonight and
Sunday morning due to low-level moisture return.
Modest increase in instability over eastern sections, coupled
with strong shear area-wide will lead to thunderstorm development
with the potential for some thunderstorms in eastern sections to
become strong to marginally severe during the afternoon and
evening as dryline advances eastward.
Passage of weak cold front early Monday associated with shortwave
trof will have little impact on temperatures Monday. Notable
warmup expected Tuesday through Thursday with highs near 80 in
some sections Wednesday and Thursday.
Strong shortwave trof approaches and passes Thursday, producing
windy conditions. A wind advisory will likely be needed. Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles likely to be dry-slotted with this system
so no pops have been added. Polar cold front with this system
brings Friday highs back to near climo, with bounce-back commencing
on Saturday. 03
Although relative humidity values fall below 20 percent today
across western sections of the Panhandles, winds will remain too
light to produce elevated fire weather conditions.
Relative humidities remain above 20 percent on Sunday, precluding
elevated or critical fire weather conditions. Increasing dry
southwest winds on Monday may lead to elevated fire weather
conditions across mainly the western half of the Panhandles.
Lighter winds are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely to occur
on Thursday, primarily across the western three-fourths of the
Panhandles as dry southwest winds increase.
Briefly elevated fire weather conditions may develop on Friday
across the southeast Texas Panhandle due to dry northwest winds.