Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 250347
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1047 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THE DOWNTREND TO START
OFF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONTINUED A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER FOR
KDHT UNTIL 09Z DUE TO A FEW SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN NEW
MEXICO PLAINS COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE TERMINAL. FOR THE MOST PART
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO IMPACT A TERMINAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KT AND SLOWLY SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTH. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND GUSTS UP TO
22KT ARE POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE TOWARDS MIDDAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INSERT MENTION INTO THE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS. SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE AROUND 03Z-04Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

UPDATE...

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS OK
COUNTIES BASED ON TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION CAM MODEL OUTPUT. SEEN A
FEW STORMS PULSE UP WITH SMALL HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
REPORTED WITH THESE.

AVIATION...

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT KGUY AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESS EXTENT AT
KDHT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. TIME TIMED THESE STORMS OUT AND INSERTED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDER AT KGUY. KDHT HAS A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT
TO MENTION IN PREVAILING. KAMA SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTION FREE. BY 4Z
CONVECTION SHOULD BE EITHER EAST OF THE TERMINALS OR DIMINISHED ALL
TOGETHER. THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LIGHT WINDS BACKING TOWARDS A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH VFR CONDITIONS. TOMORROW SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS MIXING INCREASES. KGUY AND
KDHT BOTH HAVE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION BY TOMORROW EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...DOMINATING MID-UPR LVL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INITIALLY
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST CLOSER TO THE CEN MS
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT RIDGING WILL EXTEND WEST
OF THE CENTER ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT OR
ELIMINATE CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THAT SAID...THE N-NW
THIRD OF THE CWA WILL BE FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE...MAY BE IMPACTED BY SRN EDGE OF WEAK S/WVS WORKING AROUND THE
NRN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND WILL ALSO BE NEAR CONVERGENCE
PROVIDED BY WEAK SFC TROUGH. GIVEN THIS AND SOME INFLUENCE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SEEN AT H7...WILL SHOW SLT CHC POPS (SOME
LOW END CHC POPS) ACROSS THE N-NW THIRD OF THE AREA MOST DAYS WITH
GREATEST CHCS ACROSS OK PANHANDLE AND FAR N/NW CORNER OF THE TX
PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NAM SHOWS CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG...BUT WEAK SHEAR AND VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE CHC FOR A SEVERE STORM ALTHOUGH A PULSE STRONG
STORM IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AROUND MID WEEK AS A NOTABLE TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH A HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
WEST AND BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A N-NW MID-UPR
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CEN NORTH AMERICA. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION...HOWEVER GFS AND
ECMWF STILL BOTH BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY WED. NRLY MID-
UPR LVL FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST BRING POSSIBILITY OF AREA BEING
IMPACTED BY STORMS MVG SOUTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE AREA.
WILL SHOW SOME INCREASE IN POPS AND DECREASE IN TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS VERY LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03




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