Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 191155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
655 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

12Z Issuance...VFR conditions will persist through the period.
Gusty southwest winds will pickup in the next couple hours with
gusts up to 35kts. Skies will be clear.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 339 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

Subsidence behind a departing shortwave trough will allow for dry
conditions today through around the middle of the week. The upper
flow will transition from zonal today to southwesterly Wednesday
as a closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest digs southward
over the Great Basin region later this week. Surface trough to the
lee of the Rockies across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico
today will deepen and push slowly east into the forecast area by
late today. A cold front is expected to push through the
Panhandles later today and Wednesday morning. South and
southwesterly surface winds will increase this afternoon but are
expected to remain just below Wind Advisory criteria. Dry
conditions should continue through Wednesday and Thursday.

Low level moisture is expected to begin advecting into the
forecast area later this week ahead of the approaching closed
upper low and trough. Surface low to develop by late Friday over
eastern/northeastern Colorado with deepening surface trough
extending south across eastern New Mexico. Surface trough expected
to sharpen into dryline by the weekend as a cold front tracks
south and east across the Panhandles late Sunday into Sunday
night. Convection late this week and over the weekend ahead of the
cold front and dryline could become strong to severe. Primary severe
threats at this time appear to be large hail and damaging winds.
Also, locally heavy rainfall this weekend into early next week
from ongoing convection may result in flooding or flash flooding


Meteorologically, the 20 foot wind speeds and minimum afternoon
relative humidities today will meet at least elevated fire weather
conditions and possibly even critical fire weather conditions at
times. 20 foot wind speeds are forecast to reach 15 to 20 mph and
15 to 25 mph with higher gusts by early to mid afternoon with
minimum afternoon relative humidities of 10 to 20 percent by mid
to late afternoon across the northwest half or northwest two-
thirds of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent
rainfall from this past weekend, some of which was wetting
rainfall, along with the state of the fuels mitigates the fire
weather threat for today. A cold front is forecast to push through
the Panhandles later tonight and Wednesday morning resulting in
higher relative humidities, cooler conditions, and lighter 20 foot
winds on Wednesday.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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