Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 222309
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
609 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST
TONIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. EASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON RADAR FROM COLONIAS...NEW MEXICO TO
GRENVILLE...NEW MEXICO. THIS CONVECTION HAS HAD A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH IT BUT HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NEW MEXICO PLAINS. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF KDHT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE
TERMINAL. KGUY AND KAMA HAVE EVEN LESS OF A CHANCE THAN KDHT TO SEE
CONVECTION TONIGHT. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW MORNING...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP WITH GUSTS
TOPPING OUT NEAR THE 30KT MARK. CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN TO
AVIATION BUT THE GREATEST RISK OF IMPACT LOOKS TO BE KGUY AND
POSSIBLY KDHT FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW GIVEN
THAT CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE OF IMPACT IS SO LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.
RIDGE AND PASS OVER THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO BELIEVE THE ACTIVITY
THAT STARTS OVER THE RATON RIDGE WILL BE THE ONLY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. THE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION BACK INTO
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING SUN.

THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND INTO
WYOMING BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MEANS THAT WE WILL HAVE STRONGER
WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A VORT MAX ON
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH THAT CLIPS OUR NORTHWEST CWA.
THE ADDED LIFT AND SHEAR DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TO OUR NORTH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN QUESTION...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
MONDAY AND THEN IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH COLORADO AND WYOMING
ON TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GET SHUNTED TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY AND WE WILL REMAIN RAIN
FREE. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL MAY GET PRETTY STRONG AS A SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS OR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN TO THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  83  57  85  50 /   5  10   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  55  86  59  85  50 /   5  10  10   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              54  83  49  80  46 /  20  20  20   0   5
BORGER TX                  56  85  60  87  52 /   5  10  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              54  86  56  86  49 /  10  10  20   0   5
CANYON TX                  52  84  55  85  49 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               52  80  58  86  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 52  84  50  83  47 /  20  20  20   0   5
GUYMON OK                  55  86  56  83  49 /   5  20  20   5   5
HEREFORD TX                52  84  55  84  49 /   5  10  10   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                55  84  60  85  52 /   5   5  10  10   5
PAMPA TX                   53  83  58  84  52 /   5  10  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                53  81  57  86  55 /   5   5   5  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              53  81  58  87  56 /   5   0   5  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/99



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