Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 311753 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1253 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
ISOLD TSTMS PSBL OVER ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD DRIFT INTO WRN HALF OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY ONE TERMINAL SITE WILL BE IMPACTED
SO HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS ELEMENT FROM THIS FCST CYCLE. WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON FOR PSBL AMENDMENTS SHOULD TSTMS BECOME
MORE OF A THREAT.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

AVIATION...
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST CORNERS OF FORECAST AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR ENCROACHMENT TOWARD KAMA AND KDHT THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT TODAY WILL BACK TO
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING MAY THREATEN
KDHT AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT LACK OF CERTAINTY OF LOCATION OF
DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDES INCLUSION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE WEEK AHEAD REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCLUDED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS THIS WEEK...THOUGH POPS ARE LIMITED AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE AND EXPECTED LOWER STORM COVERAGE ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD.
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NM/CO SOME AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK. SOME CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DRIFT INTO
THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING...WITH CHANCES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT SPREADING FARTHER EAST. AFTER THIS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT MID- WEEK. AS THE DRYLINE SHIFTS A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST AND TIGHTENS UP LATER IN THE WEEK...COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF IT...THOUGH ONLY HAVE 10
PCT POPS IN AT THIS TIME. INCREASING DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LOW LATE IN THE WEEK COULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
THAT PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING...THIS MEANS SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO
THE AREA. HAVE BACKED A FEW DEGREES OFF OF GUIDANCE DUE TO CURRENT HIGH
SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS...THOUGH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S LOOK
LIKELY MOST AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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