Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231040
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
440 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH WIND LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHER CONCERNS INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING DUST...AND POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS DAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW).

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX IS LOCATED ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF DEEP
TROUGH AND IS POSITIONED OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHER
EAST...A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION
AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE ROCKIES UNDER
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE TWO. BELT OF STRONG MEAN FLOW IN CORE OF JET
STREAK WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE AREA TODAY AND WITH MODEST MIXING
INTO THIS LAYER THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTS
REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA THROUGH AFTERNOON. A FEW CONCERNS EXIST.
1.) HOW ROBUST/DEEP WILL MIXING BE IN THE ABSENCE OF INSOLATION DUE
TO PERSISTENT CLOUDS. 2.) THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF UPSTREAM JET MAX.
NAM HAS BEEN LOWER WITH SURFACE-700 MB WINDS COMPARED TO THE GFS.
OTHER GUIDANCE GENERALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE ON MAGNITUDE WITH SOME
MINOR SPATIAL VARIATION NOTED AS WELL.

HAVE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING...ALBEIT A MARGINAL EVENT WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO NOT
MATERIALIZE. ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
AND WITH GUSTS SO STRONG AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY AFTERNOON...PARTICUARLY ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DIURNAL
UPSWING IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING GUIDANCE / HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY.

FOR THE MID RANGE AND EXTENDED PERIODS AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC WAVES TRAVERSING THE
REGION...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS
DAY. PRECEEDING THIS SYSTEM UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. BY EARLY FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LONG WAVE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY WITH FAST DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS ASCENT
FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS NEARS AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN
OCCURS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. COINCIDENTALLY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
MAY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. 20 FOOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY EXCEED 15
MPH. THIS COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON
THE STATUS OF FUELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS SINCE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THICK CIRUSS TO LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FROM FALLING TO CRITICAL LEVELS.

BRB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL PASS OVER THE DHT TAF SITE EARLY
THIS MORNING. CIGS AND VISBYS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS. AMA AND GUY SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
LIKELY GUST ABOVE 40 KNOTS AT ALL SITES. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AMA TAF SITE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TUESDAY EVENING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL THINK CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  21  46  28  62 /  10  10   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  34  22  46  24  61 /  30  10   5   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              34  17  47  26  60 /  20   5   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  40  23  48  30  64 /  20  10   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              40  19  48  26  63 /  10   5   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  39  21  47  27  61 /  10   5   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               39  26  48  27  62 /  20  10   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 37  15  46  23  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  35  20  47  24  62 /  20  10   5   0   0
HEREFORD TX                39  21  47  26  62 /  10   5   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                36  25  45  27  61 /  30  10   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   35  21  45  27  61 /  20  10   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                39  28  48  27  60 /  20  10   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              41  28  49  28  62 /  20  10   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DEAF SMITH...
     GRAY...HANSFORD...HUTCHINSON...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

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