Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 072037
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
337 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PACKAGE AS GOING FORECAST SEEMS
TO HAVE THE SITUATION WELL IN HAND. THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
CENTER ON A COLD FRONT SET TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES BEGINNING
TOMORROW MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST IN RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HRS. THOUGH UP TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE COULD DEVELOP...
WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES MAY LIMIT CONVECTION UNTIL A WEAK LLJ
DEVELOPS AROUND SUNSET AND ADDS TO LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY HANG
UP TOMORROW WILL HAVE A STRONG IMPACT ON WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DOES FIRE TOMORROW NIGHT. INHERITED FORECAST HAS THE MOST
LIKELY ZONE FROM ROUGHLY DALHART TO CANADIAN, AND THIS STILL SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO SQUEAK THE FRONT THROUGH
AMARILLO BY LATE MORNING TUE, BUT THINK THIS MAY BE JUST A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE GIVEN LACKING UPR LEVEL SUPPORT. WITH VERY VERY LITTLE
SHEAR, DO NOT THINK THIS ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE THAN YOUR
GARDEN VARIETY PULSE TYPE WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD PULL OUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN, BUT PROBABLY BY AND LARGE
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FOR MOST. HIGHS WILL BE
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE, WHERE IT WILL STAY HOT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
RETREATING FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MORE IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME INDICATION OF A BIT
BETTER FORCING FROM A FEEBLE SHORTWAVE ON WED MEAN GOING 20 POPS HAVE
THE SITUATION WELL IN HAND. MLCAPE VALUES AGAIN COULD APPROACH 1500
J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR MEANS PULSE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE NAME OF THE
GAME. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
A PATTERN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN NM CONVECTION TRYING TO LEAK INTO THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL DEVELOP AND HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A FEW COOLER DAYS BEHIND THAT COLD FRONT, THE HEAT WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ECWMF ADVERTISING AN ANAMOLOUSLY STRONG COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WEATHER AND FUEL CONDITIONS.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                70  88  66  90  68 /   0  20  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  72  88  63  92  68 /   5  20  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              67  86  62  91  68 /   5  20  30  20  10
BORGER TX                  74  93  68  92  72 /   0  20  30  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              70  91  68  92  70 /   0  20  20  20  10
CANYON TX                  69  90  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               72  94  68  91  70 /   0  10  20  20  10
DALHART TX                 66  87  63  90  66 /   5  20  30  20  10
GUYMON OK                  71  89  65  92  69 /   5  20  30  20  20
HEREFORD TX                67  89  66  90  66 /   0  10  20  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                70  89  64  90  68 /   0  20  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   71  89  66  90  68 /   0  20  30  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                72  94  67  92  70 /   0  20  20  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              73  97  69  94  71 /   0  10  20  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

13/09





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