Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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398
FXUS64 KAMA 041116
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
516 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
AREA OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KDHT
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THIS AREA OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD AFFECT THE KAMA TERMINAL
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL. LEANED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE OF ONLY BRING CONDITIONS
DOWN THE MVFR FOR KAMA BUT IFR ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT KGUY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE LOWER CATEGORIES. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM 15Z THROUGH THE END OF THIS
TAF CYCLE.

TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH FOR
KDHT AND KGUY AFTER 9Z BUT NORTHERLY WINDS MIGHT HOLD OFF AT KAMA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE COULD BE A
CONCERN FOR LLWS AT KAMA STARTING AROUND 9Z PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT LEFT MENTION OUT OF PREVAILING FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL PUT THE PANHANDLES IN A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. A COUPLE OF STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...BUT THESE
SHOULD MISS OUR AREA TO THE NORTH FOR THE MOST PART. THE FIRST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE. THE NEXT ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN GET UNDERWAY BY TUESDAY WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE.

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT 20
FOOT WINDS ARE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. THE WINDS SWITCH
AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND 20
FOOT WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OVER 20 MPH...BUT LOWEST AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT. NEAR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON SATURDAY AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15



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