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000
FXUS64 KAMA 071717
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1117 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES AT THE THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES BY 12Z SUNDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AFTER ABOUT 13Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD START TO COME DOWN AS
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SE BRINGING IN MOISTURE. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH
CEILINGS AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING UNTIL ABOUT NOON AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING.
THE WIND WILL ONLY SLOWLY RAMP UP THIS MORNING...SO IT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL ON THE WIND CHILLS.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH OFF OF THIS MORNING/S LOWS AS
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH SUNSHINE FROM GETTING THROUGH
TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES AROUND TODAY AS SOME VERY WEAK
LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE FLURRIES IN THIS ARCTIC
AIR MASS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. THIS SPELLS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST STARTING TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS MAY ACTUALLY MAKE TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS AND WE GET GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

THERE IS SOME INDICATION ON THE GFS MODEL THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UPPER LEVEL JET ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA
MONDAY IN THE ARCTIC AIR. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER RIGHT NOW. BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AGAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE BACK INTO THE 40S TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WINDS DO PICK UP ON SUNDAY...BUT AFTERNOON
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11/05