Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 180434 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1134 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FORECAST FROM SIX HOURS AGO REMAINS VALID.  HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INHIBIT BR OR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS.  INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN OVERCAST LAYER AROUND 8000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.  SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.  LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE TROF AS IT
TRAVERSES FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES
NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ONLY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT.  SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST COULD CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO CAPPED FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  VFR
FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST TIME FRAME...AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST ON SATURDAY EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA STAYS WELL
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND
MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLES TO SEE SOME RAINFALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE DRY AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19





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