Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 190357 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1057 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NW SECTIONS OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS. DUE TO THE
EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE...HAVE OMITTED THIS ELEMENT FROM KDHT.
OHTERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 06Z TUE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY PASS NEAR KGUY
DURG FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS FCST...AND HAVE INCORPORATED A VCTS
ELEMENT AT THAT SITE TIL 03Z. OUTSIDE OF THAT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 00Z WED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FIRING IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTH OF LUBBOCK, CLOSE TO MIDLAND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AND SEE IF STORMS UP NORTH ARE ABLE TO FILL IN AND INVADE THE
PANHANDLES. REGARDLESS IF THEY`RE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS LIMITED CAPE AND SHEAR WILL LEND
TOWARDS CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE. THINK MAIN THREAT TODAY
(AND THE REST OF THE WEEK) WOULD BE COLLAPSING STORMS PRODUCING
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.

ON TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL TRY AND FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT AT THIS TIME
BELIEVE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LUBBOCK HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. AS MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THINK
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME CONTAIN THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE
STORMS. ALMOST A COPY AND PASTE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOMEWHERE IN THE PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A FEW STRAY ONES MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE
PANHANDLES, BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST PEOPLE IN THE AREA TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AGAIN CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO DURING THE WEEK, BUT THINK MOST PEOPLE
THAT GET UNDER A STORM WILL EXPERIENCE JUST RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

BROAD RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS
CURRENTLY ARE NOT AGREEING ON THE STRENGTH OF EITHER OF THESE TWO
FEATURES AND HOW IT WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLES SITTING BETWEEN THEM.
CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST IN THESE PERIODS MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR IT IF/WHEN MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY AND TOMORROW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AT THE
SAME TIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH
TUESDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WINDIER THAN TODAY. CURRENTLY NOT AS
CONCERNED WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WINDS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO
20 MPH, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT
DURING THIS PERIOD, SO NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/99




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