361
FXUS64 KAMA 062330
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
630 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday and severe storms
  may produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall may lead to
  flash flooding.

- Temperatures will remain around average with highs in the 80s
  and 90s.

- After a break in thunderstorm activity during mid week, storm
  chances will return late this week into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Similar conditions expected today with near average temperatures,
but maybe not quite as humid. Also, having 20 to 50 PoPs mainly
for the west and north again. Better H7 moisture exist in the far
western combined Panhandle into NM. An 18Z balloon release is
already showing a very dry surface layer here at Amarillo. Storms
moving in from the west may hit this dry air and fall apart just
like they did last night. The highest PoPs once again exist after
sunset tonight into the late overnight hours, with the potential
to last into the early morning hours Monday for the northeastern
combined Panhandles as showers and storms move in from KS. Severe
storms cannot be ruled out for severe winds exceeding 60 mph and
hail potentially up to quarters generally in the late
afternoon/early evening. Due to PWATs near average in the
atmosphere and the warmer H5 temperatures of summer time, melting
hail is likely and may limit the overall potential for hail size
to become severe. However, some models suggest bulk shear upwards
of 25 to maybe 30 kts, with a little over 1000 J/Kg may give a
potential at supercells that could increase the hail potential.
Tomorrow, some similarities to today exist. However, a shift in
the better moisture axis eastward may put more of the combined
Panhandles in play for thunderstorms as they survive further into
the eastern FA. PWAT values remain around 100-120% of normal today
and tomorrow, leaving the possibility of some localized
torrential rainfall in the stronger updrafts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Not much has changed in the forecast for the long term. Still
looking at Wed and Thu being the warmest days with a break in PoPs
until Thu night with a shortwave trough bringing moisture back
into the area from the north. Late evening PoPs of 20 percent
return to the area Thu night with widespread 20 to 30 PoPs are in
the forecast for Friday night and again Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Generally VFR conditions for the remainder of today through early
Monday afternoon. The exception of this will be with the passage
of thunderstorms this evening and overnight at KDHT and KGUY. This
could lead to a brief reductions of conditions to MVFR. There is a
very low chance that these storms could become strong to severe
with large hail and strong winds. The next round of thunderstorms
moves into the panhandles during the evening of Monday that have a
low chance of impacting all terminals. These storms will also be
capable of reducing conditions to MVFR or worse. Further these
storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.
The ambient winds during this time will remain southerly and weak
for the rest of today into Monday morning. The winds then become
gusty during the afternoon hours of Monday for KDHT and KGUY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...98