Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 271712
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1212 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP
TOMORROW AROUND 07Z TO 12Z FOR KAMA AND KDHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE AREA BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

BEAT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES AFTER
00Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. WEST TO NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES OR SURPRISES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS A
GENERAL RULE...THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH
HAS SEEMED TO BE MOST CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN FOR WEATHER
PATTERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS...NAM...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AS OF THIS MORNING...WITH THE NAM BEING
NOTABLY FASTER WITH THE UPPER LOW AND DRIER FOR OUR REGION. WE START
TODAY OFF ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING UPPER- LEVEL LOW WHICH WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EAT OF OUR AREA YESTERDAY. AS THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PULLS INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY...A REINFORCING
ROUND OF COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE PANHANDLES. ACROSS MOST OF
THE PANHANDLES THIS WILL MEAN A 5 DEGREE DROP FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY HELP IT FEEL A LITTLE COOLER.

WEATHER BEGINS TO CHANGE BY TOMORROW HOWEVER...AS THE ACTIVE UPPER
AIR PATTERN BRINGS THE NEXT CLOSE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL TURN FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER
EASTERN NM AND WEST TX BY TOMORROW EVENING. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN
LIFT INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE A LOW
LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THESE WILL WORK TO
BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE PANHANDLES
/DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S/ AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE
CURRENTLY HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BASED ON EXPECTED
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW. RAIN CHANCES IN GENERAL SHOULD CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.

THIS SECOND UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE
THIRD CLOSED LOW IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN DIGS TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE PANHANDLES MOSTLY DRY ON SATURDAY THOUGH
A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS AT SOME
POINT IN THE DAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING ROUND OF COOLER AIR SHOULD ALSO
PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EVERY
PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BASED ON PROXIMITY OF THE
THIRD UPPER LOW AS IT STALLS AND SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES IS GENERALLY FAVORED AS ANY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION COULD BE STEERED THIS WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE
AS TO HOW TO HANDLE THE PATTERN BY THAT TIME THOUGH...AND THERE IS
NO TELLING HOW MUCH LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
RECOVERED FROM THESE SEVERAL POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

NF

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                72  44  76  49  70 /   0   5  10  50  50
BEAVER OK                  70  40  69  47  62 /   0   5  10  70  80
BOISE CITY OK              66  38  65  41  57 /   0   5   5  60  60
BORGER TX                  72  46  74  50  67 /   0   5  10  50  60
BOYS RANCH TX              73  44  77  50  70 /   0   5  10  40  50
CANYON TX                  74  43  78  49  73 /   0   5  10  40  30
CLARENDON TX               74  46  76  52  75 /   0   5  20  50  50
DALHART TX                 69  41  70  47  63 /   0   5   5  40  50
GUYMON OK                  69  40  69  46  59 /   0   5   5  70  70
HEREFORD TX                75  43  79  50  73 /   0   5  10  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                71  41  71  50  66 /   0   5  10  70  80
PAMPA TX                   70  43  73  48  67 /   0   5  10  60  60
SHAMROCK TX                74  46  76  54  74 /   0   5  20  60  60
WELLINGTON TX              77  48  78  56  78 /   0   5  20  60  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/10


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.