Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 122221
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
421 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Patchy fog and light drizzle continue to plague the Texas
Panhandle this afternoon. The clouds will build back into the
western TX Panhandle and into OK Panhandle overnight and bring
back the fog and drizzle potential as a shortwave moves across the
area. Monday will see the clouds finally begin to clear out of the
area which will allow for highs to come back up into the 60s. By
Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will take over from the slight northwest
flow as upper level high pressure in southwest Mexico slides back
towards the tip of the Baja Peninsula. Meanwhile, a trough tries
to push towards the Great Lakes and sends a cold front through the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. By Thursday, the area
will recover southerly flow at the surface and downsloping flow
from aloft, raising surface temps. The end of the week will see a
spike in concerns for fire weather issues, see discussion below,
as temps will be warm and winds will be gusty ahead of a cold
front. Models are still not in perfect agreement, but are starting
to agree more that the bigger concern for fire weather will be
Friday only. The GFS is faster with the frontal push being Friday
evening; while the ECMWF waits till late Friday night. This will
bring cooler temps on Saturday. Outside of the drizzle through the
morning, no precip is expected with either front.

Beat

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather concerns for Thursday are starting to
dissipate as models come into better agreement that Friday will be
the day. Have started hedging more towards the GFS solution for a
frontal passage Friday evening, instead of late Friday night.
The 250mb jet will be overhead with 110-120kt winds. The 500mb
jet will be near to overhead with 120-140kt winds. The 700mb jet
is a bit off placement for the GFS, but better on for the ECMWF
solution. Either way, we are still looking at around 40kt winds.
Temps on Friday look to be in the 70s. If the GFS pans out, RH
values will be even less than we have going right now. Have
started hedging the dewpoints lower towards the GFS than what the
blends provided, but didn`t want to drop too far since the models
are just now agreeing on Friday. If the models continue to move
more into agreement on frontal timing on Friday evening/night, I
can see dewpoints dropping further and instead of the whole area
seeing RH between 15 and 20 creating elevated conditions, RH could
drop to less than 15 and critical fire weather conditions may
be present. With temps warming up Thursday, the fuels will be
plenty dry from the latest round of drizzle and ERC values will
likely rise quickly.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                49  47  64  49  80 /   5  10   5   0   0
Beaver OK                  56  42  63  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   5
Boise City OK              55  39  69  44  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  52  49  66  49  81 /   0   5   5   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              53  46  68  47  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  50  47  64  49  80 /   5  10   5   0   0
Clarendon TX               51  49  61  51  77 /  10  10  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 55  41  66  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  54  46  66  42  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                53  47  64  49  80 /   0   5   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                54  44  60  50  75 /   0   5   5   0   0
Pampa TX                   49  48  62  49  78 /   5  10   5   0   0
Shamrock TX                52  49  58  52  75 /  10  10  10   5   0
Wellington TX              53  50  59  53  76 /  10  10  10   5   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

15/16



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