Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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938
FXUS64 KAMA 162114
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
314 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
One more very cold day across the Panhandles before we start a
warming trend going into the weekend. With surface winds beginning
to shift to more southerly and southwesterly, although still a
chilly night tonight, temperatures will only range from the upper
single digits to mid teens compared to this morning with lows
around 0. Warm 850-700 hPa temps will begin to advect into the
region throughout the day tomorrow under persistent southwesterly
flow into the mid levels, especially across the central and
western Panhandles. Some areas in the east may hang on to one
more day of highs in the upper 30s tomorrow as the cold air mass
will be slow to move out. The rest of the region will experience
high temps closer to average ranging from the mid 40s to around
50.

Northwesterly flow within the mid levels and south to
southwesterly flow in the lower levels will continue to help
progressively increase our temperatures throughout the week. Going
toward Friday into Saturday, synoptic zonal flow will shift mid
level winds toward westerly and southwesterly which will further
warm temperatures. Went above numerical guidance as a surface
trough develops across SE Colorado and eastern New Mexico should
increase southwesterly flow and WAA into the region with high
temps well into the 70s, especially for parts of the central and
western Panhandles. Elevated fire weather conditions are also
possible Friday and Saturday across parts of the region.

Looking ahead Saturday night into Sunday, latest 16/12Z model and
probabilistic data are rather consistent showing a neutral
tilted upper level trough moving east with its apex into the Four
Corners region by early Sunday morning. Most of the long term
guidance does bring the upper level low into Kansas by Sunday
night and with the moisture return out ahead of the upper level
low with the southerly flow across Oklahoma, most of the
precipitation will remain well east of the Panhandle. The
exception would be across the Oklahoma Panhandle where wrap around
moisture behind the departing low may provide some rain/snow
showers on Sunday. But otherwise, mostly dry for the remainder of
the Panhandle to end the weekend. A cold front will also make its
way through the Panhandles behind the system Sunday morning which
will drop temperatures into the 40s on Sunday following highs in
the mid 60s to lower 70s on Saturday. Temperatures will remain
near average with tranquil conditions to end the forecast period
into early next week.

Meccariello

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the
Panhandles region Friday and Saturday. In particular, parts of the
central and western Panhandles, 20 ft. winds of around 15 kts.
in-conjunction with RH values between 13-19% will assist in the
conditions for fire weather. Some of the upper level profiles are
showing a cap in the about 5-7 kft. in the atmosphere, likely due
to the low sun angle for this time of year, hence why winds maybe
a limiting factor for Friday and Saturday. Updates to the forecast
will be made as we get closer with time.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                10  45  20  58  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                   5  46  19  59  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              15  48  22  59  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  14  48  24  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              12  48  20  59  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                   9  44  19  57  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX                8  42  19  55  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 13  45  20  58  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  10  48  20  61  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                10  45  18  57  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                 8  43  20  56  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                    9  45  22  58  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                 8  39  19  52  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              10  40  19  53  27 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/29



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