Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 242011
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
311 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER BENIGN AUTUMN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER AIR RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE OVER WEST TEXAS
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROMOTING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF NOTABLY WARM CONDITIONS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENTS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...BOTH IN
THE FORM OF DOWNSLOPE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND
ALSO IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MONDAY EVENING. MODEL TRENDS
WITH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED...AND FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED WITH LATER UPDATES. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE FORCING/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST
OF THE PANHANDLES...BUT SOME MODELS GENERATE LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NEAR
THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED AND TEMPORALLY EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO RANGE FROM 18Z MONDAY TO 12 Z TUESDAY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LESS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE
OVER THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK WITH THE FLOW ALOFT THEN TRANSITIONING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER MILD
COLD FRONT THURSDAY...THUS TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                54  87  54  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  53  90  52  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              50  85  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   5   5
BORGER TX                  56  91  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              52  91  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  52  89  51  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               57  90  55  88  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 48  88  47  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   5
GUYMON OK                  50  89  51  87  53 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                51  89  51  84  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                54  87  55  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   56  86  55  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                56  88  54  89  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              57  89  56  90  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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