Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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586
FXUS64 KAMA 162127
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
427 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A POTENT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WAS SLOW TO MOVE EAST TODAY...BUT IS
FINALLY WORKING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAS ROUGHLY
BISECTING THE CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT 21Z. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT HAS SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...AS WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE USHERING IN
DRIER AIR...REDUCING THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE WESTERN AREAS. WILL
HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT FOR STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE GUSTS
WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AS STRONG MOMENTUM FROM
THE MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IS TRANSFERRED
TOWARD THE SURFACE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST INSTABILITY REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
ANY STORMS REDEVELOPING IN THIS AREA IN WAKE OF THE EARLIER
CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE LINEAR IN STRUCTURE OVER THE
PAST HOUR. PLAN TO BEGIN CLEARING THE TORNADO WATCH FROM WEST TO EAST
BEFORE LONG. CONVECTION AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS EVENING.

WINDS ARE FINALLY INCREASING IN WAKE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...AND THUS
WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLES THROUGH 8 PM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER THIS
EVENING AS MIXING SUBSIDES AND THE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN.

WE/LL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IN A CONTINUED
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH LOW-
LEVEL POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW PROVIDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THIS
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH. OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED FOR
AN ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY THE
PRIMARY CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL BE ON A
MUCH LESS ORGANIZED/MORE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED NATURE AS WE/LL BE IN
BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHS AGAIN. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES BY LATE WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AGAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                49  81  50  79  54 /   5   0   0   5  50
BEAVER OK                  51  83  51  76  51 /  40   0   0   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              46  79  48  71  48 /  20   0   0   5  50
BORGER TX                  53  82  54  79  53 /  10   0   0   5  40
BOYS RANCH TX              49  81  49  79  54 /   5   0   0   5  60
CANYON TX                  49  80  49  79  55 /   5   0   0   5  60
CLARENDON TX               51  81  53  82  56 /  10   0   0  10  50
DALHART TX                 45  78  47  75  51 /  10   0   0  10  60
GUYMON OK                  50  81  50  74  51 /  20   0   0   5  30
HEREFORD TX                48  79  49  80  54 /   5   0   0   5  60
LIPSCOMB TX                52  83  51  79  53 /  20   0   0   5  30
PAMPA TX                   49  79  51  78  52 /  10   0   0   5  40
SHAMROCK TX                52  82  53  83  57 /  20   0   0   5  40
WELLINGTON TX              54  83  55  85  59 /  20   0   0  10  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

88/08





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