Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
612 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017


For the 12Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period.
Mostly clear skies and light wind speeds will dominate this
period. It appears clouds will advance into the area late in this
period. The chance for some mid-level clouds will be possible for
mainly KDHT and KGUY. Trends show there is a chance these clouds
will approach MVFR conditions. Will have to monitor these trends
for possible lower categorical conditions.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 400 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

An upper ridge will prevail across the Panhandles today through
Tuesday before the upper ridge shifts off to the east of the
forecast area by mid week. A frontal boundary will stall over the
northeastern portions of the Panhandles today before pushing west
and south across the remainder of the forecast area later tonight
and Tuesday morning. The frontal boundary in the vicinity will
result in a relaxed pressure gradient across the Panhandles today
and lighter winds. Winds will shift to the north and northeast
behind the front today through Tuesday morning as it slowly pushes
across the Panhandles. Temperatures today through Tuesday will be
tricky as temps will be coolest across the north and warmest in
the southern portions of the forecast area. A closed upper low
over the southwestern states around mid week will track east
across the Four Corners region Thursday and then across the
central and southern Rockies Thursday night. The closed upper low
is then progged to track east across the northern portions of the
Panhandles Friday.

Ahead of this approaching upper system, a surface ridge Tuesday
through Wednesday will allow for an upslope surface flow across
the Panhandles which will advect low level moisture into most, if
not all, of the forecast area. By Wednesday night and Thursday, a
surface low to the lee of the central Rockies across eastern
Colorado will deepen and allow for a surface trough to sharpen up
into a potential dryline Thursday. Convection is expected to
develop near the Texas and New Mexico state line early Thursday
and should increase in coverage during the day Thursday as they
track slowly east across the Panhandles by late Thursday and
Thursday night. The surface low and a cold front will push south
and east across the Panhandles Friday as the closed upper low
tracks across the northern portions of the forecast area. Much
cooler air on the western periphery of the closed upper low will
allow for mainly showers Friday as the convection continues
tracking farther east across Oklahoma. Thickness values and 850 mb
temps do not support the precipitation changing from liquid to
frozen or freezing, so will keep precipitation as rain showers for
now. Drier air will work in behind the departing closed upper low
Friday night into the weekend as subsidence prevails and upper
ridge builds in from the west. After much cooler conditions late
this week, a gradual warmup expected this weekend.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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