Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 142347 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
547 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

For the 00Z TAFs, the upper level storm system has moved well east
of the region as of this writing. Precipitation has ended and
expect clouds to continue decreasing, with VFR conditions
anticipated at all terminal sites through late Wednesday



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/

A down trend in precipitation intensity and coverage is expected
through the afternoon as best lift associated with the deformation
zone moves east of the Panhandles. Will allow winter weather
advisory to continue until 4 PM CST.

The upper level low is now pushing into western OK per water
vapor imagery and will continue eastward. This will leave the
Panhandles in NW flow aloft through early Wednesday before split
flow occurs resulting in a ridge building into the northern plains
while a southern stream trough dives into northern Mexico. This
will leave the Panhandles in fairly light flow aloft from late
Wednesday through the end of the week. The upper ridge building
in will have the most influence on our weather at the surface as a
warming trend can be expected. Subsidence will keep clouds
minimized and rain chances out of the forecast until Sunday. Winds
will switch to the southwest Wednesday afternoon as a lee trough
develops but generally stay on the light to breezy side. This
pattern can be expected each afternoon through Saturday, with a
more pronounced lee low developing Friday. Winds should stay light
enough that fire weather should not be a big concern (along with
the recent precipitation).

Models are in decent agreement with an upper level trough digging
into the Desert SW over the weekend. A fairly strong meridional
jet associated with this trough will result in a decent amount of
return flow into the Panhandles late Saturday into Sunday. The
12z GFS/ECMWF show dewpoint values in the mid to high 50s Sunday
afternoon across the southeastern Texas Panhandle. With weak
height falls resulting in steepening mid level lapse rates as the
upper disturbance approaches...the atmosphere may become favorable
for thunderstorms. Shear also looks to be favorable as the mid
level jet moves over the Panhandles resulting in veering wind
profiles (along with fairly strong south-southeast surface flow).
Instability looks to be fairly weak overall at this time, but this
will be an event to monitor.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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