Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 220752
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
252 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.Discussion...
Not only will today be the warmest day of the week, it will also see
the first chances for precip for the past several days. The center of
the upper level ridge will shift to the southeast throughout the day
today while still allowing high temperatures to increase near and a
few degrees above the century mark. Southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph
will also help temperatures at the base of the Palo Duro Canyon to
increase into the 103 to 108 degree range.

By this afternoon, convection is anticipated to develop along the
Southern Rockies and move into southeast Colorado and the Eastern New
Mexico Plains. This convection will be able to make further eastward
progression compared to yesterday due to the weakening upper ridge
and a more zonal flow pattern. Instability and deep layer shear will
be lacking so severe weather is not anticipated however, an few
strong storms can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow aloft will persist into the weekend to allow convection to
develop across parts of the Panhandles Thursday and Friday as weak
shortwaves eject out of the Southern Rockies. A weak frontal boundary
across the NW portion of the combined Panhandles will help to focus
convective development Thursday afternoon. This coupled with deep
layer shear in the 25 to 30kt range and ML CAPE values in the 1500 to
2000 J/kg range could allow for strong storms as well as an isolated
severe storm. By Friday, the boundary retreats north of the
Panhandles, and convective parameters are slightly less favorable.
Strong storms could still be a possibility but the severe risk will
far more limited.

Over the weekend, the upper flow becomes more southwesterly in
response to a closed low moving into the Dakotas. This will help to
open up a greater part of the Panhandles to the possibility of
storms both Saturday and Sunday. With ML CAPE values of 1000 to 1500
J/kg and deep layer shear in the 15 to 20kt range, strong storms
can`t be ruled out but severe storms are not anticipated.

Northwest flow aloft is anticipated for the start of next week.
Embedded shortwaves emanating from the Rockies could still bring
rain chances to portions of the Panhandles, but they will be far more
isolated in nature as compared to the weekend. Severe weather is not
anticipated from Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX               101  72  95  70  94 /   0  10  20  20  10
Beaver OK                 104  74  98  72  99 /   5  10  30  30  20
Boise City OK             100  67  93  66  97 /  20  30  30  30  20
Borger TX                 103  75  98  72  97 /   5  20  30  30  10
Boys Ranch TX             103  71  98  70  97 /   5  20  30  30  10
Canyon TX                 101  71  97  69  95 /   0  10  20  20  10
Clarendon TX              100  73  96  71  94 /   0  10  10  20   5
Dalhart TX                102  69  96  68  98 /  10  20  30  30  20
Guymon OK                 103  71  97  71  99 /   5  20  30  30  20
Hereford TX               101  70  97  68  96 /   0  10  20  20  10
Lipscomb TX               102  74  97  72  95 /   0  10  20  30  10
Pampa TX                  100  73  95  70  94 /   0  10  20  20  10
Shamrock TX               100  74  97  72  95 /   0  10  10  20   5
Wellington TX             102  74  99  72  97 /   0  10  10  20   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14



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