Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 061108 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
508 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016
Northerly winds will turn around to the southeast by this evening.
High clouds will move across the region, so VFR conditions are
expected to continue.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/
Latest observations show the first cold front has made its way
through the Panhandles and in its wake, colder temperatures and windy
conditions are expected throughout the day today with high
temperatures dropping below average for early December. Winds out of
the north between 10-15 kts will then decrease below 10 kts and shift
back to southeasterly as we go into this evening as a second
baroclinic zone sets up north of the Panhandles.
An upper level localized vorticity maximum moving east out of the
Rockies in-conjunction with the frontal boundary set up over western
Kansas will set the stages for some light snow. With this system
being moisture starved at the surface and at mid levels, continuing
the trends of decreasing QPF with the best chances of some snow
showers across the far northeastern combined Panhandles as we go
through the day on Wednesday as the main baroclinic zone sets up just
north of the Panhandles.
As we go into Wednesday night, a secondary push of very cold air
will dive south into the Panhandles as a surface high pressure system
expands south along the eastern edge of the Rockies. As the initial
expansion of the cold air moves south, a tight gradient will be
setting up along the initial boundary which will bring gusty winds
into the region Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening with
northerly winds gusting over 30 kts at times. Winds will diminish as
we go into the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday to around 10
kts. Latest 06/00Z model and numerical data shows H700 and H850
temperatures of -10C to -13C and -8C to -10C respectively. With that
said, low temperatures Wednesday night will range from the single
digits across the northwestern Panhandles to mid and upper teens for
the rest of the region. With the exception of the far SE TX
Panhandle, the rest of the Panhandles region will be at or below
freezing for high temperatures as we go into the day on Thursday.
The cold air will remain through Thursday night with lows in the mid
to upper teens. Winds will then shift back to southwesterly as the
center of the high pressure shifts well to the east as we go from
Friday into the weekend. As a result, temperatures will rebound
nicely with high temperatures rebounding to near and even some above
average values as we go into the weekend. With a weak zonal upper
level flow returning to the region by the weekend, tranquil weather
is expected to continue straight into early next week.