Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 182321
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Thursday as south and southwest winds continue. Speeds of near 15
to 20 knots with higher gusts will diminish to around 10 to 15
knots after 08Z to 10Z Wednesday and then increase to around 10
to 20 knots with some higher gusts near 25 knots after 14Z to 16Z
Wednesday through 00Z Thursday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows diffluent flow aloft as an upper-level trough moves
east into the Gulf, w/breezy southerly flow at the sfc, resulting in
another afternoon of above-normal temperatures for the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.  SW flow aloft will develop overnight as
ridging over Mexico noses further east into Texas.  An upper-level
shortwave is forecast to move into the upper Midwest Wednesday,
preceded by leeside sfc troughing on the Front Range.  This will
move east overnight, veering sfc flow to the SW Wednesday. Downslope
warming in SW flow will shift the thermal trough a little further
east into the Panhandles Wednesday afternoon, for highs around 15F
above normal.  This all comes to an end Wednesday night as a cold
front associated w/the upper trough plows thru the region, w/fropa
at KAMA 9-12Z Thu.  Fropa looks dry, w/models keeping precip
development to the NE.  However, post-frontal winds will veer around
to the east Thu afternoon, and upslope flow will meet a secondary
upper trough/front beginning Thu night, resulting in a chance of
thunderstorms, mainly Thu night/Fri, tapering off Fri night as the
trough exits thru Oklahoma.  Steep mid-level lapse rates suggest a
hail threat Thu night, and we`ll mention this in the HWO for now.
Near-critical fire wx conditions will be possible for a few hours in
the far SW CWA, but we`ll cover this in the HWO as well.

Otherwise, the secondary cold front will keep temps below-normal
Sat/Sun, before a rebound to back above normal conditions to
rebound out the extended. Grids Sat into the extended stay dry.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

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