Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 232323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
623 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Sunday. Decided to not include any TEMPO or VCTS groups/remarks in
this forecast package due to low confidence. Will update if needed.
South to southeasterly winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 30
knots will diminish after 04Z to 08Z Saturday and become southwest to
westerly 5 to 15 knots. Mainly southwesterly winds will prevail after
12Z Saturday 5 to 15 knots at all three TAF sites except possibly the
Guymon TAF site where mostly light and variable winds...north to
northeast becoming southeast to south...will prevail.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night...
See previous discussion below.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...
The cold front looks to be fully through the area by Sunday afternoon
as it will be moving quickly. It will bring gusty winds with it as
well during the day. As the upper level trough moves off to the east,
some energy gets pinched off and will form a closed low in the
southwest US. Models start to disagree on Sunday in timing of this
happening and continue getting further apart in consensus through
the week. The low will retrograde as high pressure builds into Texas
from Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms might linger around the area
Monday and then as the high pressure builds in, Tuesday through
Friday are mostly dry. By Wednesday night, the closed low ejects out
over the Rockies and brings a small chance for some showers in the
southeast Panhandle. After that, ridging builds in further and keeps
the area dry.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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