Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 162336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
536 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours with minimal high
clouds, mainly over KAMA. Winds will generally be less than 15kts
and out of the south, at least through 06z. Light and variable
winds expected thereafter. KDHT and KGUY will see a northerly wind
shift mainly after 16Z.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 246 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017/

Latest water vapor shows a moisture starved upper low over
northern Mexico this afternoon, which will eject northeast across
western Texas and Oklahoma through Friday. A shortwave ridge will
build in behind this upper low resulting in tranquil weather
conditions continuing through Saturday. High temperatures during
this period will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the
region, with the Panhandle breeze held in check as winds remain at
or below 12 MPH. However, our attention turns towards a developing
storm system in the eastern Pacific Ocean expected to move over
the region Sunday.

Latest model guidance has remained fairly consistent in bringing a
vigorous weather system into the region Sunday, though the exact
details still remains somewhat in flux. What is coming into focus
is that a longwave trough with attendant upper low along the base
of the wave may cause an upper level negatively tilted shortwave
trough to eject northeast across the Texas & Oklahoma Panhandles.
As this trough approaches the region, strong southerly to
southeasterly winds ahead of the system will aid in moisture
transport into the area. Forecasted soundings suggest that PW
values will be around three-quarters of an inch to an inch, which
would be a record if these values are realized. As the shortwave
trough moves across the area Sunday afternoon and evening, there
is the potential for a low CAPE/high shear environment to exist as
approximately 300 to 800 J/kg of MLCAPE with greater than 60 kts
of mostly unidirectional shear possible. The most favored region
for thunderstorm formation Sunday night could be across the
eastern TX/OK Panhandles, but any small shift in the storm
system`s track will greatly determine whether strong to severe
convection is possible. Despite this, high PW values for this
time of year could produce the potential for heavy rainfall in
association with any showers or thunderstorms that form.

The longwave trough will push east across the area, with drier air
filtering in quickly behind early Monday. A ridge will build in
behind to start the next work week, with tranquil weather
conditions returning to the area. Temperatures will be above
normal for this time of year, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
and precipitation chances not expected until at least next Friday
at the earliest.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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