Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
644 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

12z TAF Cycle:

VFR cigs/vsbys expected through period. Mid level clouds will
dominate with an isolated shower or two through around mid
morning. Can`t rule out some scattered low stratus for a few
hours around sunrise, but not expecting cat reduction at this
time. Clearing is expected by this afternoon from west to east.
Southerly winds around 15kts through the morning will become gusty
southwest winds Friday afternoon. Isolated gusts near 40kts is
possible, but most areas will see gusts around 30kts. Some backing
of the winds should occur Friday evening and gusts should drop
off, but sustained winds around 15-25kts will continue overnight
especially for KGUY and KAMA. Can`t rule out a rogue thunderstorm
this afternoon or evening but overall confidence is low, thus kept
ts mention out of TAFs.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 436 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/

Not a lot of wholesale changes made to previous forecast package.
For today into this evening, a fast moving upper level shortwave
trof will continue traversing the srn high plains today into early
this evening. An area of light showers and psbly a few tstms
currently moving across the western TX South Plains will continue
movg northeast this morning. Have included slgt chc pops for about
the sern half to one-third of the fcst area this morning, then
across the eastern OK Panhandle and eastern TX Panhandle this
afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, the next fast moving upper level shortwave trof and
its associated surface cold front will move across the region. The
cold front will move quickly through the area Saturday and be
south of the fcst area by around 00Z Sunday. Rather dry air will
invade the OK and TX Panhandles behind this cold front. Therefore,
have restricted slgt chc pops to the far ern TX Panhandle during
the day on Saturday. Breezy north winds will also occur in the
post frontal airmass for a few hours on Saturday.

Dry weather is then expected for Sunday through Thursday as an
upper level ridge of high pressure prevails across the wrn states
while general upper level troffing develops over the ern states. A
couple more dry cold frontal passages are in the offing durg this
time period. One front is progged to move through the fcst area
Monday afternoon and evening, with a second cold frontal passage
foreseen around Thursday. Medium range models are in general
agreement on the above scenario and were accepted.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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