Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 231114
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
614 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to prevail for the majority of the 12Z TAF
issuance. Winds will ramp up as we enter the late morning hours with
gusts near the 35kt mark. These winds look to persist well after
sunset as the nocturnal inversion will be slow to strengthen after
sunset. There is a chance for convection to impact the western and
northern terminals this evening. Have inserted a PROB30 group for
KGUY with this issuance and continued the one for KDHT. Convection
looks to clear these terminals by 4Z so left mention of convection
after 4Z out. After 6z looks to be the best time for the KAMA
terminals to be impacted by convection but will leave mention out as
confidence on exact timing remains low.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Closed mid-level low over eastern Nevada at this time expected to
lift northeast today, with shortwave trof to its south moving slowly
eastward toward Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.  Strengthening
southwest flow aloft will be sufficient to produce shear for
organized thunderstorms this evening, with SPC denoting a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms across the northern half of the
forecast area.  A slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms will be
retained today for northwestern sections, where Pacific cold front or
dryline will provide a focus for development.  As boundary advances
eastward tonight strengthening low-level jet will enhance further
development.  Chances for thunderstorms tonight spread east to
encompass all sections.

On Saturday, eastern sections continue with higher pops, owing to
richer and deeper moisture along and east of Pacific front.  On
Saturday night, polar cold front overtakes earlier boundaries,
sweeping through Panhandles by sunrise Sunday.  Much cooler air will
be brought into the area via brisk north winds.  Pops on Sunday will
be ending from the north, with rain showers still being possible
across southern sections Sunday night and Monday.  No pops in later
periods.  Fall-like weather expected Sunday through Tuesday, with
highs remaining below 80.  Gradual warmup thereafter.

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

14/3



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