Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 131725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017


For the 18Z TAFs:

Another difficult round of TAFs is in store for the area as we hover
around MVFR (brief periods of IFR at KDHT). We should get a break
in ceilings and get to VFR this afternoon, but showers and
thunderstorm chances increase again late this afternoon through
the overnight period. Chances are KDHT and KAMA will be impacted
by these chances. KGUY is showing signs of missing out on these
showers/thunderstorm chances, but its not a guarantee to miss out
completely. Currently it does appear KAMA and KDHT will likely go
to MVFR again overnight to perhaps even IFR for both ceilings and
reduced visibilities.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 634 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

12z TAF Cycle:

Widespread IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys are expected to prevail through
15-16z across the Panhandles. In addition, an area of
showers/thunderstorms continues to move southeast into the
northwestern Texas Panhandle. These have managed to mostly avoid
KGUY/KDHT, but will keep VCSH and amend for thunder if trends
change. Cigs/vsbys should gradually improve and storm decrease in
coverage, becoming VFR by or shortly after local noon. The
atmosphere is expected to destabilize Sunday afternoon ahead of a
mid-level disturbance. This should help kick off what will most
likely be a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving
southeast to easterly out of NM/CO. At this point there is decent
confidence that KAMA and KDHT will be impacted by these storms
during the evening Sunday, so included tempo groups there. If the
storm motion southerly component is as expected, activity may
mostly stay west/south of KGUY. Kept prob30 pending better
confidence in eastward coverage of storms in the OK Panhandle.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 530 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

The overall wet weather pattern will continue through Tuesday as
broad westerly flow persists, which is a favorable steering flow
this time of year for bringing storms eastward into the OK and TX
Panhandles from ern NM and sern CO. Short and medium range models
are in reasonably good agreement with the overall upper level
pattern for the next few days and were accepted.

For today, the latest crop of showers and tstms will continue
moving east across the fcst area this morning, and have raised
pops for this morning and utilized areal qualifier wording to
account for this. This round of precipitation should be east of
the fcst area by this afternoon, and have lowered pops across much
of the north and east to the slgt chc category durg that time
frame. Have also included areas of morning fog until around 15 to
16Z based on latest sfc obs.

The next complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
develop over the higher terrain of ern NM and sern CO later this
afternoon, then track east and affect the fcst area through the
evening and nighttime hours. As a result, have incorporated chance
pops for tonight. Storms that develop during this time frame will
have a better chance to become strong to severe due to an approaching
upper level shortwave trof from the west-Northwest and associated
slightly stronger mid and upper level wind fields along with greater
shear values compared to the last few days. Damaging winds and large
hail will be the primary severe weather hazards in addition to
locally heavy rains.

The threat for showers and tstms will continue Monday through
Tuesday night, albeit with a trend towards less coverage each
day. Medium range models suggest a drier pattern for Wednesday
through Friday, with non-mentionable pops for this particular
time frame. Then the potential for some tstm development appears
plausible Friday night into the weekend, and have included slgt
chc pops for that time period.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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