Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 200349
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1049 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
LATE THIS EVENING. REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS FROM THE DALHART TAF SITE
BUT LEFT IN VCSH AT THE GUYMON TAF SITE BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z SUNDAY
JUST IN CASE SOME OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION WORKS IT WAY TOWARD
GUYMON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED 1,000
FOOT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES BEFORE 14Z OR 15Z SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
5 TO 15 KNOTS THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AFTER
14Z OR 15Z SUNDAY...AND THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN TO AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS OR 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY BACKING SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST AFTER 01Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO SURVIVE AS IT WORKS EAST TOWARD
THE PANHANDLES FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...LIKELY DUE TO STABILIZING
EFFECTS FROM THICK ANVIL BLOWOFF ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER...A
FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PANHANDLES. THE NOCTURNAL LLJ IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 30 KT...WHICH MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...CAPPING WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...EVEN FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION...THUS BOTH STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME. STILL A STRONG STORM ATTM JUST NORTH OF CIMARRON
COUNTY...BUT ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z SUNDAY
AND MAY AFFECT THE DALHART TAF SITE...AND POSSIBLY THE GUYMON TAF
SITE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN AND
NEAR ANY CONVECTION THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH
00Z MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME 10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 25 KNOTS AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AFTER ABOUT 14Z OR 15Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THROUGH TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ERUPTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THESE STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST, THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES
UP TO 3000 J/KG. THINKING THE STORMS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY MAKE IT
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND AFFECT LOCATIONS WEST OF A LIBERAL TO
MCLEAN LINE. A 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING, AND WITH ABOUT 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THESE STORMS
MAY CONGEAL INTO A VERY LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BY 9 PM.
IT`S POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THROUGH 11 PM,
BUT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. DAMAGING
WINDS, QUARTER SIZE HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA AND/OR DISSIPATE BY 3
AM.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY AFTERNOON: AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
ONCE AGAIN DRIFT INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF ANY STORMS DO MOVE IN, THEY COULD BE STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ITS
INFLUENCE OVER A MUCH BROADER AREA AS WE START A NEW WORK WEEK.
THE UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION
POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT
ANOTHER STRONG STORM OR TWO AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: DIDN`T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OR JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ANY
DAY, THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE TOASTY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S EACH DAY.
TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/08





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