Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 262304 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. STILL A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AT KDHT AND KAMA
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z, BUT AT THIS POINT CHANCE LOOKS SLIM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF WITH THE SETTING SUN AND
PICK BACK UP AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE RISING SUN WHILE REMAINING OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL TRANSLATE TO A RATHER
PLEASANT OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SATURDAY MORNING COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG BUT THIS SHOULDN`T LIMIT
VISIBILITIES GREATLY AND BE PATCHY AT BEST. A FEW HI-RES MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW AS THESE SHOWERS WOULD BE VERY BRIEF IF THEY FORM
AT ALL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION AS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS STORMS MOVE IN FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALLOW A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE UPPER LOW
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT STILL OVER THE AREA, WE
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND PUSH THE STALLED FRONT WELL EASTWARD
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS
SECOND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DRY AS OF NOW.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/11





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