Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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584
FXUS64 KAMA 031054
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
454 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS.
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 12KT AND SLOWLY
SHIFT TOWARDS A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA TODAY. THE BASE OF
THE MUCH LARGER PARENT TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LARGER TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH IT TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST CWA. THE LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS DOWN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE. NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY. THIS WAVE LOOKS PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT
IS NOW MOVING FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE
THE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE NOT DECIDED TO ADD POPS TO THE
DAYTIME FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET ANY
PRECIPITATION DOWN TO THE GROUND.

THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL AND THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT WILL KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DOWN TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
THURSDAY. THE WINDS AT THIS POINT LOOK TO STAY BELOW 15 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT IF THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS MORE THAN
EXPECTED...THEN WINDS COULD BE UP AROUND 15 MPH OR A LITTLE GREATER
WHICH WOULD CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15



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