Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231921
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
221 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.Short Term...Tonight...
Short-term high-resolution models continue to depict development of
scattered thunderstorms this evening, with highest coverage across
northwest and northern sections. Instability remains highest across
these areas and weak shortwave trof is expected to help release same
as it arrives from the west. Outflow boundary currently lying across
northeast corner of forecast area offers an area of slightly enhanced
surface convergence. Development low-level jet this evening should
sustain updrafts. Any thunderstorms persisting into the early morning
hours should be of lesser intensity and coverage as low-level flow
becomes more southwesterly.

Cockrell

&&

.Long Term...Friday through Wednesday...
Not much change in the forecast package. With weak flow in the upper
levels, timing out of shortwaves as they move through the north
branch of the jet stream will be on a day to day basis. These waves
will control the pops each day and how much of the area will see
precip. As the upper low in Mexico continues its path northward into
Texas, it will continue to feed moisture to the area. Between the
highs in the lower 90s and the dew points in the upper 50s and lower
60s, the air will continue to feel somewhat muggy. Models have a
decent consensus with nothing showing one to be better than another,
so have stuck with a model blend for now.

Beat

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                69  94  70  94  69 /  20  20  10  20  20
Beaver OK                  72  97  72  96  70 /  40  20  20  20  30
Boise City OK              66  94  68  92  64 /  50  20  20  40  40
Borger TX                  72  96  73  96  71 /  40  20  10  20  30
Boys Ranch TX              69  97  70  96  68 /  40  20  20  20  30
Canyon TX                  69  96  69  96  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
Clarendon TX               69  92  70  92  70 /  20  10   5  10  10
Dalhart TX                 67  96  68  95  66 /  50  20  20  30  40
Guymon OK                  70  97  72  96  69 /  50  20  20  30  40
Hereford TX                67  97  68  96  67 /  20  10  20  20  30
Lipscomb TX                72  94  72  94  71 /  30  20  10  10  20
Pampa TX                   69  93  70  92  70 /  20  20  10  10  20
Shamrock TX                72  94  71  94  71 /  20  10   5   5   5
Wellington TX              73  95  71  95  72 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/16



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