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000
FXUS64 KAMA 100442 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS REST OF TONIGHT...RETAINING SLGT CHC NORTHERN ZONES AND
DRY SRN TX PNHDL. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FCST PCKG IS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS
TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND GRIDS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...HAVE INCORPORATED A VCTS WEATHER ELEMENT AT KDHT
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO STORMS MOVING INTO
NWRN ZONES FROM NERN NM. HAVE OMITTED TSTMS FROM KAMA AND KGUY AT
THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES OUTSIDE
OF TSTMS.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THROUGH TONIGHT: A COUPLE OF SHOTS FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
1. THE FIRST WILL BE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. THE
PRIMARY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR HAS BEEN ALONG AND JUST WEST OF
THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. BACKGROUND UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS VERY
WEAK, SO THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ISOLATED. DUE TO VERY WEAK SHEAR AND MODERATE BUOYANCY, ONLY PULSE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
2. THE SECOND SHOT WILL BE WITH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. THE MEAN STEERING FLOW
WILL LIKELY SEND THESE STORMS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE, BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATER EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING
BY 2 AM.

IF ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PANHANDLES THROUGH 11 PM, A ROGUE SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT
WHERE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT. HOWEVER, THIS AREA MAY
LARGELY MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE CONVECTION. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: IT STILL LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, WILL HAVE TO SEE IF A
STORM OR TWO CAN MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES BETWEEN 6
PM AND 10 PM, BUT THINK THE CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING ARE LESS THAN
10%. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100 F.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY
IS EXPECTED. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BE POSITIONED JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST
FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DRIFT INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 11 PM. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY: CHANCES FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES THIS
WEEKEND. THE STORMS MAY MAKE IT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MAY DIP INTO THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. EVEN BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO ACCOMPANY A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG, AND TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF THE
ECMWF IS RIGHT, HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY STRUGGLE TO BREAK 70 F IN SOME
AREAS NEXT WEDNESDAY!

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7
DAYS AS EITHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
AND/OR 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH. FURTHERMORE, RECENT
GREEN UP WILL ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY TEMPER ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$