Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 281700
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. HAVE INSERTED A 6SM BR GROUP FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY AFTER 10Z. ANY LOWERED FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG PSBL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TX AND OK PNHDLS...GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF PROGGED TO
EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY
TILTED FASHION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA COURTESY OF THE ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF...DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. RETAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS
FOR THIS AREA. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. HAVE RETAINED THE INHERITED POP
STRUCTURE FROM EARLIER PCKGS WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO LATEST MEXMOS
VALUES...AND BASICALLY FEATURES A GRADIENT OF POPS IN THE GRIDS SUCH
THAT THE CNTRL AND ERN OK PNHDL HAS THE HIGHEST AND FAR SERN TX PNHDL
THE LOWEST VALUES.

SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
LOSING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FCST AREA TUE...WITH ONLY LINGERING SLGT
CHC POPS OVER THE FAR ERN ZONES TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT
TO NEXT FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS FCST TO AFFECT
THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER WED INTO EARLY THURSDAY. BASED ON
LATEST PROJECTED PATH OFFERED BY THE MODELS...IT STILL APPEARS THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN E AND N OF FCST AREA.
HAVE RETAINED AND TWEEKED THE INHERITED SLGT CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT
ACROSS THE OK PNHDL AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE EXTRM NRN AND ERN TX
PNHDL. THE CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THRU THE TX AND
OK PNHDLS LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NO POPS AFTER WED NIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE
REBOUNDING NEXT WEEKEND.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15





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