Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 121807

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
107 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017


For the 18Z TAFs:

A difficult forecast is in place for this TAF period. Ceilings are
going to be difficult but we should be in MVFR for a good portion
of this period. We could get some relief today, but ceilings will
degrade again tonight with increased chances for visibility
restrictions overnight. IFR conditions may come to fruition as
well but decided against this at this time. Showers/thunderstorms
are also possibly overnight into tomorrow morning. Models are
hinting at convection over portions of southeastern Colorado
pushing south into the forecast area overnight. Will see what
holds together, but went ahead and mentioned these chances for
Guymon for now. KDHT and KAMA may need showers/thudnerstorms
added in future TAFs.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 639 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017/

12z TAF Cycle:

Widespread rain is now confined to the eastern Panhandles with
more isolated showers further west. Cigs are dropping to IFR in
many locations across the Panhandles with localized LIFR. MVFR
VSBYS are also noted mainly in the northern Panhandles. KAMA is
still VFR as of this writing, but should follow suit as low ST
invade over the next hour. Ceilings should gradually improve to
MVFR through the morning for most of the area, and possibly VFR
by afternoon as clouds become more scattered. However, MVFR/IFR
cigs are expected to return during the late evening and overnight.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon if clouds clear
out enough to destabilize sufficiently. Otherwise, winds will be
southerly around 10kts.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 523 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017/

The overall wet weather pattern will continue through Tuesday as
broad westerly flow persists, which is a favorable steering flow
this time of year for bringing storms eastward into the OK and TX
Panhandles from ern NM and sern CO. Short and medium range models
are in reasonably good agreement with the overall upper level
pattern for the next several days and were accepted.

For today, a large area of showers and tstms will continue moving
east across the fcst area this morning, and went with high pops
along with areal qualifier wording to account for this. This large
shield of precipitation should be east of the fcst area by this
afternoon, and have lowered pops to the chc category durg that
time frame. Highs today should be below normal for mid August due
to clouds and morning precipitation.

The next crop of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop
over the higher terrain of ern NM and sern CO late this afternoon,
then track east and affect the fcst area through the evening and
nighttime hours. As a result, have incorporated mid to high
chance pops for tonight. Similar repeat scenarios are slated for
Sunday through Tuesday, albeit with a trend towards less coverage
each day. Medium range models suggest a drier pattern for Wednesday
through Friday, and decided to utilize non-mentionable pops for
this particular time frame.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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