Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 180758 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
158 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Brief update to the forecast to add Wind Advisories and Elevated
Fire Weather (See Fire Weather) to the forecast today. Strong
cold front moving through the Panhandles overnight will promote
windy conditions for all areas. The strongest winds are expected
to occur between sunrise and noon, with winds diminishing
thereafter. Some areas have already gusted 45 to 50 mph. Expect
that sustained winds will range in the 30 to 39 mph range. Will
keep an eye on this system and some areas may need to be upgraded
to High Wind Warning if stronger gusts get reported. Wind
Advisories are in effect for all of the Panhandles until 3 PM CST
today.

Weber

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated Fire Weather will be possible late this morning into
early afternoon. Even though temperatures will be quite cool today
with the cold front, strong north wind accompanied by very dry
air could bring relative humidities down close to 20 percent for a
good portion of the central and eastern Panhandles. It looks like
the elevated Fire Weather will be brief and should last 1 to 3
hours.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 06Z
Sunday. Westerly winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts near 35 knots
will shift to the north 20 to 30 knots with gusts near 35 to 40
knots after 08Z to 10Z Saturday. The north winds will diminish by
19Z to 20Z Saturday around 10 to 20 knots and then diminish to
light and variable 5 knots or less after 23Z Saturday to 01Z
Sunday.

Schneider

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Forecast remains largely unchanged.  No precipitation expected
for the next seven days.  Ongoing critical fire weather
conditions should end early this evening.

Deep mixing has occurred today in spite of abundance of cirrus
clouds.  Dry west winds with surface trof will diminish
temporarily this evening, but then ramp up again with the approach
and passage of a cold front.  Cold front expected to pass through
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles between 11 PM tonight and 4 AM
Saturday.  Winds may briefly reach 35 MPH with frontal passage,
particularly in northeast and east parts of the forecast area as a
sharp shortwave trof and associated stronger winds move through
the area.  Do not expect duration of 35 MPH winds to be great
enough to issue a wind advisory for Saturday.  Cold air advection
will hold Saturday high temperatures below normal.  Saturday
night will be cold with lows below freezing area-wide.

Following passage of early Saturday shortwave trof, light to
moderate northwest flow aloft resumes.  Temperatures on Sunday
rise to be close be near-normal.  Southwest winds on Monday bring
highs to around 10 degrees Fahrenheit above climo.  Another cold
front Monday night results in highs Tuesday and Wednesday near
normal.  Thanksgiving Day and Friday expected to be warm with
highs about 10 degrees above climo.  03

Cockrell

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry west and southwest winds will diminish a bit this evening.
Critical and elevated fire weather conditions should end around 6
PM this evening as relative humidity rises above thresholds.
Winds will abruptly shift to the northwest late tonight as a cold
front arrives.  The cold front is expected to pass through
northwest sections before midnight, and to clear the southeast
Texas Panhandle by 4 AM Saturday.  Strong northwest and north
winds early Friday will diminish during the afternoon. Light winds
are expected Saturday night, with dry southwest winds increasing
again on Sunday. Elevated fire weather conditions may develop on
Sunday across parts of the Combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
as relative humidity values drop to around or slightly below 20
percent as southwest winds resume. Southwest winds on Monday are
not expected to be strong.  A cold front Monday night will result
in strong north winds on Tuesday, but relative humidities are
expected to remain well above 20 percent.  Light to moderate
southwest winds return on Wednesday.  No elevated or critical
fire weather conditions are expected Monday through Friday.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                52  28  60  33  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  54  25  61  32  67 /   5   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              49  27  59  31  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  55  31  62  38  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              54  28  62  33  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  53  27  60  33  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               55  30  61  33  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 51  25  60  28  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  52  27  61  31  68 /   5   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                53  27  61  31  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                54  25  62  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   52  28  60  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                57  29  61  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              59  31  62  34  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf
     Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...
     Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

OK...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

89/89/11/3



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