Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 202234

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
534 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Thursday. Possible showers and thunderstorms may potentially affect
the northwest sections of the Panhandles Wednesday afternoon...after
about 19Z to 21Z Wednesday...and will include a VCTS remark at the
Dalhart TAF site after 20Z Wednesday. Southerly winds 15 to 25 knots
with some higher gusts will diminish to around 10 to 20 knots after
00Z to 01Z Wednesday and then increasing again after 14Z to 16Z
Wednesday 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 324 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/

Upper level ridge over the southern plains will slowly break down
and move east with time through the late week.

On Wednesday, subtropical moisture will be brought northeast across
the northwest CWA. This moisture combined with instability may touch
off a few showers and thunderstorms across this area Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Thursday is looking fairly dry at this point as the
remnants of "Paine" move north of the panhandles.

The models are in fairly good agreement on the strength and motion
of the large upper level low that moves into the western U.S. until
it moves to near Salt Lake City by Friday afternoon.  Then the ECMWF
takes the main low into the northern plains and a piece of it moves
southeast into eastern New Mexico by Sunday afternoon. The GFS also
splits the upper low into two parts. The southern piece moves to
around the 4 corners by Sunday afternoon and then this upper low
drifts southwest into southwest Arizona by Monday afternoon.

The models bring a fairly decent chance of rain, especially across
the east, Friday night and Saturday ahead and along a cold front.
The cold front then moves south of the panhandles Saturday night.

GFS brings more rain to the area Sunday night through Tuesday as the
upper low stays to the west of our area. The ECMWF keeps most of
the rain Sunday night through Tuesday to the east of the panhandles
as the upper low stays across West Texas.

Above normal high temperatures will be found across the panhandles
through at least Friday. The highs will then be below normal for the
weekend into early next week.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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