707
FXUS64 KAMA 061738
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1238 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday and severe storms
  may produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall may lead to
  flash flooding.

- Temperatures will remain around average with highs in the 80s
  and 90s.

- After a break in thunderstorm activity during mid week, storm
  chances will return late this week into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Similar conditions expected today with near average temperatures,
but maybe not quite as humid. Also, having 20 to 50 PoPs mainly
for the west and north again. Better H7 moisture exist in the far
western combined Panhandle into NM. An 18Z balloon release is
already showing a very dry surface layer here at Amarillo. Storms
moving in from the west may hit this dry air and fall apart just
like they did last night. The highest PoPs once again exist after
sunset tonight into the late overnight hours, with the potential
to last into the early morning hours Monday for the northeastern
combined Panhandles as showers and storms move in from KS. Severe
storms cannot be ruled out for severe winds exceeding 60 mph and
hail potentially up to quarters generally in the late
afternoon/early evening. Due to PWATs near average in the
atmosphere and the warmer H5 temperatures of summer time, melting
hail is likely and may limit the overall potential for hail size
to become severe. However, some models suggest bulk shear upwards
of 25 to maybe 30 kts, with a little over 1000 J/Kg may give a
potential at supercells that could increase the hail potential.
Tomorrow, some similarities to today exist. However, a shift in
the better moisture axis eastward may put more of the combined
Panhandles in play for thunderstorms as they survive further into
the eastern FA. PWAT values remain around 100-120% of normal today
and tomorrow, leaving the possibility of some localized
torrential rainfall in the stronger updrafts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Not much has changed in the forecast for the long term. Still
looking at Wed and Thu being the warmest days with a break in PoPs
until Thu night with a shortwave trough bringing moisture back
into the area from the north. Late evening PoPs of 20 percent
return to the area Thu night with widespread 20 to 30 PoPs are in
the forecast for Friday night and again Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

KDHT and KGUY will once again favor chances for being impacted by
thunder, mainly between 00Z and 08Z Monday. KAMA, likely to stay
free form storms as they are expected to fizzle out further east
into the central and eastern TX Panhandle. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions with varying winds, depending on outflows and random
surface boundary around the area, with speeds upwards of 10 to 15
kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36