Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 260744
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
144 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY WEEK WARMTH IS EXPECTED...THOUGH IT WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
SFC MOISTURE OVER AREAS THAT EITHER CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SNOWPACK
OR ARE JUST FINALLY FINISHING MELTING IT. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (10-15G20 MPH DURING AFTERNOONS) ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE BREEZIEST PERIOD LIKELY BEING TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WED NIGHT PUTTING AN END TO THE WARMTH.

THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT LIKELY DRY. BEGINNING THU NIGHT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEAK MID/UPR DIFFLUENCE AND PERIODIC LOW LVL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL COUPLE WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO
PROVIDE OFF AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE PRECIP. MED
RANGE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CARRY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES REGARDING EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF A QUASI-CUT OFF
SW CONUS UPR LOW AND STRENGTH/TIMING OF SFC COLD AIR INTRUSIONS.
HAVE KEPT GOING FORECAST IDEA OF INITIALLY RAIN FRI FOLLOWED BY A
RAIN OR SNOW PERIOD FRI NIGHT-SAT...FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATELY SNOW
CHANCES SAT NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH WRT TO PTYPE FRI
AFTERNOON - SAT AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER LOW LVL SOLUTION THAT HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/GEM COULD MEAN ACCUMULATING SNOWS. THE
ECMWF HAD BEEN SHOWING A WARMER LOW LVL SOLUTION WHICH WOULD MEAN
MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON, BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED COLDER,
SO THE LATE FRI AFTERNOON-SAT AFTERNOON BEARS CLOSE WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE TX
PANHANDLE...THOUGH ALL AREAS STAND A CHANCE AT SEEING SOMETHING
BETWEEN FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                62  35  70  44  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  70  35  75  41  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              68  35  73  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  66  37  72  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              62  33  68  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  62  34  67  43  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               68  39  73  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 62  29  69  36  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  69  33  74  40  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                61  33  68  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                70  35  75  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   66  37  72  44  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                69  37  74  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              70  39  75  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09





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