Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 252111
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
411 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE AND ONSET OF COOL/MOIST CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK REMAINS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...AN AGITATED CU FIELD IS PECULATING IN VICINITY OF BLACK
MESA OVER THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS WEAK/SHALLOW INSTABILITY
EXISTS ATOP A DEEPLY HOT/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SHOWERS/STORMS MAY INITIATE THERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS...A RISK OF ERRATIC/STRONG WIND
GUSTS EXIST...BUT PROSPECTS FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE LOW.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SETTLING OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN
KANSAS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES LATE
SATURDAY...AND WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BETTER PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN DURING WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE ANOTHER HOT DAY.

THE MID/UPPER AIR RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND BEGIN TO AMPLIFY BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE ANTICIPATED COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL INITIALLY IMPACT THE PANHANDLES BY LATE SATURDAY
AS MENTIONED...BUT VERY WELL MAY NOT PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION UNTIL
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AS IT DOES...THE STAGE WILL BE SET
FOR YET ANOTHER MID SUMMER NORTHWEST FLOW EPISODE. THUS RAIN CHANCES
RAMP UP LATE SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL PUSH...AND THEN WILL REMAIN
INTERMITTENT DURING THE WEEK AHEAD AS MOUNTAIN CONVECTION PROPAGATES
SOUTHEASTWARD. TIMING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT...BUT
MODELS TEND TO SUGGEST THE PASSAGE OF A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE AMBIENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. NONE-THE-LESS...THIS PATTERN APPEARS TO PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 40-50 PERCENT POPS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THUS RELATIVELY COOL/CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
SOME RISK OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

LINDLEY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HOT/DRY CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON. YET WIDESPREAD GREEN AND RELATIVELY MOIST FUELS
PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT WILDLAND FIRE RISK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY/THIS EVENING AND MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF DRY LIGHTNING AND BREEZY/ERRATIC WINDS.
OTHERWISE...A NOTABLE WEATHER CHANCE WILL FOLLOW ANOTHER HOT/DRY DAY
SATURDAY WITH THE ONSET OF MORE MOIST/COOL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                71  99  71  94  67 /   5   5  20  20  40
BEAVER OK                  73 106  73  96  69 /  20  20  20  20  50
BOISE CITY OK              72 101  71  92  66 /  20  30  30  30  50
BORGER TX                  77 104  76  97  72 /   5  10  20  30  50
BOYS RANCH TX              72 102  70  97  69 /   5  10  20  30  40
CANYON TX                  69  99  68  95  67 /   0   5  10  20  40
CLARENDON TX               72  99  71  97  71 /   0   0  10  20  40
DALHART TX                 67 100  69  93  66 /  10  20  20  30  50
GUYMON OK                  73 102  74  94  68 /  20  20  20  30  50
HEREFORD TX                67  96  65  95  67 /   0   5  10  20  40
LIPSCOMB TX                72 104  72  96  69 /  10  10  20  20  50
PAMPA TX                   73 100  71  93  68 /   5  10  20  20  50
SHAMROCK TX                71 101  72  98  71 /   5   0  10  20  40
WELLINGTON TX              71 102  74 100  72 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/10




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