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000
FXUS64 KAMA 031705
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1105 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. WEST WINDS MAY AT TIMES GUST TO
30KT BUT OTHERWISE SKC WITH SOME CI. BIG CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST STARTING TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. BEGINNING TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON FRONTAL TIMING WITH
FROPA AT GUY AT 06Z...KDHT AT 08Z AND KAMA AT 11Z. POSSIBLE BKN015
DECK AT GUY AFTER FROPA. AND BY THE WAY...GET THE ENGINE PREHEATERS
READY FOR TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRI/SAT MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAMA. A LOW CHANCE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXISTS AT KDHT AFTER 10Z. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY AFTER 0830Z.

WSW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY 17Z-00Z, PARTICULARLY AT KAMA AND KDHT.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS 06Z-10Z WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A HARSH RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER ONE
LAST DAY AND A HALF OF WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE DETAILED
BELOW...ACCOUNTING FOR UPDATED TIMING OF THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT AND
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL IN FACT
HOLD OFF TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA UNTIL TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
LOW IN EASTERN CO WILL KEEP WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THEN...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EDGE INTO THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...BEING HELD OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST NM TOMORROW. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
SURGE SOUTH AND BRING AN END TO THIS REPRIEVE FROM WINTER.

NF

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE PANHANDLES BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. MANY NIGHTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL SEE WIND CHILLS DROP DANGEROUSLY BELOW
ZERO...NEARING TEN BELOW IN MANY PLACES.

AS FAR AS WHEN AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP CAN BE EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF FROZEN
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT. THINK THE ADDITION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EJECTING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BETWEEN 12Z
THURSDAY AND 12Z FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 3 INCHES
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AS COLD MOIST LOW
LEVEL WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY EVENING IF THE NAM AND ITS
WARMER 750 MB TEMPS VERIFY THERE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOST 3 OR 4 COUNTIES.

THE SLIGHT WARMUP SUNDAY MAY BE THE ONLY GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR WARMER
TEMPS...AS MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REACH 15 PERCENT OR LESS
ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES TODAY...AND 20 FOOT WINDS COULD REACH
20 MPH IN THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE...FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS ROUND
OF SNOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WHERE THE LIKELIHOOD OF REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST TODAY. WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER AND FUEL CONSIDERATIONS FOR TODAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRECLUDE ANY
FIRE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

07/16