Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 110428
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1028 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

.AVIATION...
For the 06z TAFs...
Have eliminated mention of IFR ceilings for northern terminals.
MVFR ceilings expected to persist at GUY with occasional light
snow until around 10z.  Expecting MVFR ceilings to return to DHT
with occasional light snow between 07z and 14z.  At AMA, MVFR
ceilings expected to make an occasional return between 11z and
15z.  Otherwise, all terminals expected to remain in VFR category
during the daylight hours on Sunday.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 758 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/

UPDATE...
Have made adjustments to graphical forecasts for rest of tonight
and Sunday morning.  Have increased pops in north and especially
northwest, where consistent signals for measurable precipitation
continue.  Have increased overnight snow amounts slightly, but
still holding below one inch. Lack of upslope flow points toward
limited accumulations.  Have lowered temperatures slightly, based
on current trends.  Have changed Sunday morning weather to
scattered flurries.  No changes to later periods.  Updated text
products will be issued shortly.

Cockrell

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 546 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/

AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Deteriorating conditions expected this evening and overnight.
MVFR ceilings expected to lower to IFR around 05z to 07z Sunday.
Visibilities expected to lower in light snow at northern terminals
between 05z and 12z Sunday.  At AMA, a few flurries may occur.
Northeast and north surface winds not expected to be strong.
Return to VFR conditions expected by 15z Sunday.

Cockrell

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 435 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A light dusting of snow was seen in the Oklahoma Panhandle this
morning, and a handful of snowflakes were seen flowing through the
air down south in Amarillo. The shortwave responsible for these
flakes has passed the area; however, a mid level wave pushing
through the Rockies will make it to the Panhandles Sunday and
bring with it another chance for light snowfall tonight. The
northwest OK Panhandle may see up to one half inch and then lesser
amounts could be seen through the northwestern half of the area. A
few more flakes could be seen in the southern half of the area
Sunday morning, but no accumulation is expected.

While this shortwave is passing through the area Sunday, the next
system comes ashore in the Pacific NW and merges over the central
coast of California with the next longwave pushing down from
Canada. The system will bob offshore and dip south to the tip of
southern California. From there, models have a big disagreement
with how the system will play out. The GFS and ECMWF try to
bring it onshore and drag it across the southwest US, while the
Canadian keeps it out to sea. The system will bring the area into
southwest flow for the end of the workweek no matter which is
right. The question becomes more what will happen with the
shortwave that is also being forced through the Great Plains. This
shortwave brings a cold front for the end of the week and the
possibility of precip. However, the Canadian brings us nothing,
the GFS dumps rain all over the southern half of the area, and the
ECMWF brings the precip down with the front along with cold temps,
which leads to snow. In the realm of 119 days without precip, it
seems hard to believe precip will happen, so have not gone with
Superblend`s 60 pops for the end of the period. Kept 20s to 30s
going and it will either end up as rain or snow but until we get
the models to hug and makeup, temperatures may be very off. So for
now, while keeping 50s as possible daytime highs, left in wording
of rain or snow. We shall see if this even happens at all.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/14



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