Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 171720 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1220 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL THREE TERMINALS. SOME BR WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN 10Z-14Z AT KAMA AND KDHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
BRIEF FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
FORECAST AREA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO DROP INTO MVFR
RANGE.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MOST OF THE DAY.  APART FROM
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS NEAR KAMA...HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE THE ONLY SKY COVER OF NOTE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.  SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  VFR
FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CURRENTLY...THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

A MASSIVE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN ADVANCE OF ODILE...NOW CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. TRENDS IN VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF ODILE...NOW HEADING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO.

A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS DEPICTED BY NWP TO GENERALLY PERSIST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THUS ISOLATED /20 PERCENT/ GRIDDED
POPS WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL
FORCING/ASCENT TIED TO THE APPROACH OF THE EVOLVING REMNANTS OF
ODILE BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS IN EARNEST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS HAVE REMAINED IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUBSEQUENT RUNS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOWING
THE CORE REMNANTS OF ODILE TRANSLATING OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY AND 12Z SATURDAY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES AS AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS
OVER THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS TOWARD 60-70
PERCENT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. 40 TO 60 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS WERE RETAINED
SATURDAY...WHEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING FORCED AND ULTIMATELY DISPLACED SOUTH AND EASTWARD BY
A PASSING FRONT. WITH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
INCREASING...WIDESPREAD MEAN STORM TOTAL RAINFALL MAY RANGE FROM 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS DEPICTED BY WPC QPF. A FLOOD AND/OR
FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY DEVELOP AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ADDITIONALLY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE APPROACH
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS
FEATURE MAY PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




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