Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 291816 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1216 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFs, north to northwest winds in the wake of the latest
cold front will gradually diminish by late this afternoon, then trend
from a westerly direction late in this fcst period. Some mid and
high level clouds are also expected, mainly this afternoon and
tonight. VFR conditions overall are anticipated at all terminal sites
through 18Z Wednesday.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 556 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

AVIATION...
12z TAFs: VFR cigs/vsbys expected through period with some
developing mid level clouds through the day. Winds will generally be
out of the north/northwest with some gusts during the afternoon.

Ward

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery showers broad upper level trough centered over the
Dakotas, with cold air in place as far as the west side of the
Rockies down to the OK/TX Panhandles and along the Mississippi
Valley. Small circulation along the four corners may impact the
southern portion of the Texas Panhandle later this afternoon. Right
now do not expect much other than some mid level clouds, but there
may be enough moisture for some sprinkles. GFS/NAM soundings indicate
that possible flurries could occur. Main issue is that this will be
during peak heating and low level dewpoint depressions are about 18
degrees Celsius. This would require significant precipitation aloft
to get the evaporative cooling down to the surface, and model
soundings just don`t show moisture making down to the lower levels.
Overall, expect the area to remain under a cool but dry northwest
flow today. Winds will shift out of the north this afternoon 10 to 20
mph as the colder air with the trough digs further south.

By Wednesday evening the upper level low will pull over the Great
Lakes and a more zonal but still cool flow will take place over the
southern CONUS. This looks to last through mid day Friday. High
temperatures will range from the lower 40s northwest to the lower 50s
southeast.

Friday night and Saturday...This will be the part of the forecast
that will require the most attention for the next few days as we are
tracking an open wave trough that will dip down the western Rockies
and become a cutoff centered roughly at the triple point of the
AZ/NM/Mexico border. Models have been all over the place with this
cutoff low in previous runs. This has resulted in potential forecasts
ranging from significant snowfall, to no snowfall, to all rainfall
across the CWA. The latest batch of guidance do all seem to agree
that if precipitation occurs, that it will be in the form of snow for
most areas, the exception would be the southeastern Texas Panhandle,
which may be all rain or a rain snow mix at times. As we move towards
the day on Saturday and things start to warm up, the rain will be
expanded to the northwest a bit, but the Oklahoma Panhandle for the
most part looks to stay cold enough for snow. Keep in mind that this
is assuming precipitation makes it this far north. If the low is
centered too much further south, it may become cutoff from the colder
air to the north and 850mb temps increase by just a degree or two
Celsius will result in all rain. Our current forecast based on the
colder trend suggests anywhere from a half an inch to two and a half
inches could fall on Friday night into late morning Saturday.
Currently the heaviest snow is forecast for the southwest to central
Texas Panhandle.  850mb winds out of the northeast suggest potential
for orographic lift that might enhance these amounts, so that will
need to be monitored as well. This again is just a preliminary
estimate and confidence in snowfall amounts are still low. Models
seem to be in agreement that precipitation chances will start to
diminish by early Sunday morning and that cutoff low will shift into
an open wave and exit the TX/OK Panhandles sometime Sunday or Monday.
Either way they are still suggesting a dry Sunday and Monday.

Weber

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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