Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 111703
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1103 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 10KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND COOLER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS BUT STILL REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 20S AND 30S
BY THE WEEKEND. A BRISK UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT 10 TO 20
MPH OR HIGHER WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY YET
ANOTHER FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WARMER AND BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AS LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS MAY
APPROACH 80 DEGREES BY THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 20 TO 25
DEGREES CELSIUS EXPECTED. CONTINUED DRY AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PREVAILS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING AND A COOLER SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST BY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 MPH WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
AN UPSLOPE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 FOOT WIND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH THE LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS WILL PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...HOWEVER 20 FOOT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME ON SATURDAY BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO EITHER REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OR THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH. NO
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPING 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY AS
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS
ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES. 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE FORECAST TO BE
SITUATED NEXT THURSDAY FROM WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO...AND FAR WEST TEXAS. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/16


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