Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201100 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
500 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DRAG SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME VIRGA. THE CLOUDS
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART
OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THIS
COULD CAUSE SOME FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. BUT SOME
FOG MAY MAKE IT TO THE GUY TAF SITE...SO HAVE MENTIONED AN MVFR CIG
AND VSBY THERE. THE FOG MAY ALSO GET PRETTY CLOSE TO THE AMA TAF
SITE...BUT HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG/FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHICH HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
RIPPLE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ASIDE FROM THE ENHANCED CIRRUS PRODUCTION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
TODAY...RANGING FROM AROUND 50F IN THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE TO THE
UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE.

IN BETWEEN A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
AND A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH...WE WILL SEE SOME ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME STRATUS AND FOG/FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE FOR DRIZZLE PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
WORK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND WEST TX
SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THE ATTENDANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PANHANDLES GIVEN THE
PROGGED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL OVERLAP ACROSS THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE TO SUPPORT SOME RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHEAST.

THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE UPSTREAM A
150 KT UPPER JET WILL BE CARVING OUT A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND WILL HELP SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER A COMBINATION OF
FORCING FROM THE LFQ OF THE UPPER JET AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL LIFT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING AND DRY LOW-LEVELS
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WILL JUST CARRY SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY. HOWEVER IF THE WINDOW FOR LIGHT PRECIP SHIFTS
EARLIER IN THE DAY OR LINGERS LONGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING...ANY LIGHT
PRECIP COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BUT
EITHER WAY...ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS TROUGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...EVENTUALLY BACKING TO MORE WESTERLY BY MID
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE REBOUND DURING THIS TIME WITH
WEDNESDAY...THE BIG TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING...CURRENTLY
LOOKING WARM AND DRY. HOWEVER WE/LL HAVE TO KEEP OUR EYES ON A COLD
FRONT LURKING TO THE NORTH...WHICH MAY USHER IN THE NEXT COLD BLAST
JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08




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