Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 222342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
642 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Saturday. Southerly winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts near 30 knots
will diminish after 01Z to 03Z Friday to around 10 to 20 knots...then
increasing again after 14Z to 16Z Friday to around 20 to 30 knots
with gusts near 35 knots.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 434 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

Upper level heights are starting to fall this afternoon in response
to a large upper level trough moving across northwestern Nevada. A
weak shortwave is likely assisting thunderstorm development across
the higher terrain of New Mexico. Overall storm motion is toward the
northeast, so an isolated storm or two could move into the far
western portion of the Panhandles this evening, but most activity
should remain north of the area. By Friday, the center of the upper
level low remains across Utah and at the surface a leeside trough
continues to deepen. Dewpoints will increase to the mid 60s across
the far southeastern Texas Panhandle with southeasterly flow and an
isolated storm or two are possible as instability increases. The
higher chances will likely remain further west along the surface
trough on Friday, and spread eastward during the overnight hours as
the surface low departs. Have lowered PoPs just a tad during the
evening and overnight hours into Saturday morning, as any available
shortwave energy appears to be lingering further west closer to the
base of the upper level trough in southern Colorado.

From Saturday onward, forecast confidence wanes as the models
continue to struggle with the evolution of the upper level low. Have
trended toward a solution of the main upper level low lifting
northward Saturday, and thunderstorms developing along the trailing
surface trough across most of the forecast area. Bulk shear values
increase to 30kts to 40kts, so a few strong to severe storms are
possible across the eastern half of the Panhandles, with higher shear
to the west. A much stronger cold front will approach the area
overnight and into Sunday morning, which should help continue
precipitation chances through this period. Have also trended toward
model solutions depicting another closed low developing across New
Mexico on Sunday. This scenario would keep higher precipitation
chances across the area into the Monday timeframe before the feature
begins retrograding westward into Mexico. High temperatures will
likely be below average (upper 70s) to start the workweek, and
gradually approach more normal values by mid-week as upper level
ridging and dry conditions prevail.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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