Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 291007
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
430 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN SPITE OF VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ANALYZED AT 06Z...LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND MODEST LIFT
FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LEAD US TO EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THIS TIME.  KAMA RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE
THAT THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED ONE INCH OR MORE.  THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHARP 700 MB
TROF PASSES...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER...LESS UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVING AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS.

HAVE LOWERED POPS ON THURSDAY...DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR.  POPS ON FRIDAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN AREA TO
INCLUDE ONLY WESTERN SECTIONS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN CHANCES. THUS NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                78  65  77  61  76 /  60  50  40  40  20
BEAVER OK                  79  64  73  61  81 /  50  90  80  40  20
BOISE CITY OK              79  62  72  56  77 /  60  80  60  40  20
BORGER TX                  83  67  76  65  80 /  50  60  50  40  20
BOYS RANCH TX              83  67  79  63  80 /  60  50  40  40  20
CANYON TX                  79  65  81  61  77 /  60  50  40  40  20
CLARENDON TX               82  67  79  61  79 /  60  50  40  50  20
DALHART TX                 80  62  76  60  78 /  60  60  50  40  20
GUYMON OK                  80  65  75  61  81 /  50  90  70  40  20
HEREFORD TX                80  65  80  59  77 /  70  40  40  40  20
LIPSCOMB TX                80  66  74  62  79 /  40  80  80  40  20
PAMPA TX                   79  65  73  61  78 /  50  60  50  40  20
SHAMROCK TX                80  66  78  64  80 /  50  60  50  50  20
WELLINGTON TX              83  66  83  65  82 /  50  50  40  50  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03



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