Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 241747 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NO CLOUDS BELOW
15,000 FEET EXPECTED.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AT
SPEEDS BELOW 15 KT TODAY.  WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SURFACE
WINDS TO NORTHWEST AROUND 01Z AND 03Z SUNDAY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
AND KAMA RESPECTIVELY.  NO LOW CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WILL INCLUDE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMARK AT KGUY BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z
SUNDAY AS VIGOROUS POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET SETS UP OVER SHALLOW
DISSIPATING MORNING INVERSION.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
WINDS WILL WOBBLE A BIT FROM SW TO NW TODAY...BUT REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE
TO DUE WESTERLY. THERE ARE SOME FAINT SIGNALS FOR MIFG OR BCFG
OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AT KAMA OR KGUY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. TAFS WILL BE OUT AT 1120Z.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS AND NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL THE OTHER DAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 40S.
HOWEVER SNOW FREE AREAS OR LOCATIONS WITH VERY LITTLE SNOW COVER LEFT
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE AFFECT
ON THE SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE AREA...OUTSIDE OF SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LARGELY REMAIN BENIGN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A DRY WX
PATTERN ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD.
DOWNSLOPING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BUMP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY. EVEN WARMER HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD. THE ECMWF EVEN
SUGGESTS HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S THESE TWO DAYS. HOWEVER
WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S BOTH DAYS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES EJECTING
OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW CAN BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN INITIALLY AS THIS SYSTEM IS
ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AS OPPOSED TO THE SYSTEM THAT
DUMPED A FOOT OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE AREA THE OTHER DAY. HOWEVER A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS DISPLAYING A STRONGER SYSTEM AND THUS
GENERATES MORE QPF OVER THE AREA. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR NOW.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/08





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