Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 132339 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
539 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.AVIATION...
IFR conditions will continue to work their way north through tonight.
Rain and freezing rain will the spread from south to north through
the morning on Saturday. Believe that any freezing rain at AMA will
turn to rain by mid morning. DHT should see mainly rain and GUY will
likely be in the freezing rain for much of the day on Saturday. Winds
will remain light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night...Dry air this afternoon has precluded
rain from making it to the ground so far. Dew points have slowly been
increasing today as the moisture filters in. As isentropic lift
increases tonight, expect precip to finally reach the ground and
icing to begin. By noon tomorrow, models indicate all but the
northeastern zones to see a transition to rain, thus leading to the
possibility of melting some of the ice. As temperatures drop slightly
for the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday, the transition line
between rain and freezing rain will slowly progress back towards the
south. However, short range models indicate this line should only
reach to about a line from Dalhart to Pampa to Shamrock. Those south
of the line should remain in rain overnight. Those north of the line,
particularly the areas highlighted in the Ice Storm Warning look to
remain in freezing rain through Sunday morning and could receive
between a quarter to half an inch of ice.

As the upper level low gets closer to the area and large scale
dynamics kick in and uplift increases, the whole area will transition
to rain by Sunday afternoon. Due to some instability with this
system, the area could get some isolated thunder along with the
moderate rain. Some places could get half an inch to an inch of rain
in Sunday afternoon alone. Overall, those who see rain for the
majority of the weekend could see rain totals around 2 inches with
isolated higher amounts. As the low crosses the Panhandles and the
northerly flow on the backside starts into the area, there will be a
transition from rain to snow Sunday evening from west to east. The
northwest area looks to receive the most snow, close to 3 inches
possible. The snow should end from south to north on Monday and
ending by noon as the system moves into the central Plains.

Beat

Tuesday Through Next Friday... Forecast models continue to differ on
how the upper pattern evolves after our initial low moves off to the
north and east. Generally an upper trough/closed low will still be
positioned southwest of the area Tuesday before moving  across the
area Wednesday. We will be lacking moisture so no additional precip
is expected.  We will see our upper pattern transition to a more
zonal flow on Thursday as our next possible weather making system
approaches the Panhandles from the west.

14

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for the following zones:
     Hemphill...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...Wheeler.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...
     Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...
     Oldham...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

OK...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for the following zones:
     Beaver...Texas.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$

15/3


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