Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 280029 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
729 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KAMA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
IN THE VICINITY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. KDHT AND KGUY SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OF STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. ALL SITES COULD SEE
TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
STORMS TOMORROW IS LOW AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
NORTHWEST WINDS TO KDHT AND KGUY BY 15Z.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AS THE AREA IS UNDER A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME HEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. WHILE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE NEAR A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NE AND NORTHWEST
KS...LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000-2000 J/KG. THIS CAN SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS HOWEVER THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WX WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE /COURTESY IN PART BY HURRICANE
MARIE/ RAISES CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE PANHANDLES
WHERE NEARLY 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL IN SPOTS. HOWEVER DESPITE
THIS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THE SPOTTY
NATURE OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE AREA BUT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SET UP AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...SEE NO REASON WHY STORMS
WILL NOT DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. STORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO PULSE UP DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING THEN START
TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST CAN MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO TAP INTO THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WHILE BROAD SCALE FORCING CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA WHERE IT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO AID IN PROVIDING LIFT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY WHERE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BY THURSDAY
EVENING...SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT
WILL BE BEFORE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

LONG TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW DIMINISHES AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY AND POSSIBLY EVEN LIFT TO THE NORTH
HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED  ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK WELL INTO
THE 90S TOWARD THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. AT THIS POINT THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO
DO TOO MUCH BESIDE PROVIDING A WIND SHIFT SO HAVE KEPT THE GOING
FORECAST DRY BEYOND FRIDAY.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15






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