Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 260934
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
434 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A SEASONAL POLEWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IS
UNDERWAY AND THESE CHANGES ARE MOST EVIDENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ONE MORE IN A SERIES OF BROAD AND FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHS WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING HIGH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES. UNTIL THEN WEAKLY PERTURBED WESTERLIES WILL BE
PRESENT OVER US WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY FOR MEAN HEIGHT RISES AND
RESULTANT WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR A
CHANGE.

ONE SUCH WAVE IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING IN WATER VAPOR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. QUALITY
OF MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING FROM LARGE COMPLEX YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH SHOWS DRY LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...TRAJECTORIES SHOULD BE FROM
FURTHER WEST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY HAVE SOME CONDITIONALITY. EVEN WITH WEAK ASCENT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...BACKGROUND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AT AROUND 5 DM PER 12 HOURS. FURTHERMORE...ASCENT FROM
THE WEAK WAVE MAY BE MISALIGNED WITH WHEN BEST MOISTURE RETURN
AND MOST SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND CONFINED THEM TO
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FROM MID/LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
COINCIDENT WITH ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. GRADUALLY LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR
DEEP ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RETURN ONCE AGAIN WITH PWAT VALUES RISING
AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A LEAD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
WEAKENING TROUGH AND DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN MAY BRING A SECOND ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
IN BRINGING A DRIER PATTERN STARTING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                81  55  85  61  76 /  10   5  20  50  60
BEAVER OK                  81  56  83  62  81 /  20  20  30  60  50
BOISE CITY OK              76  52  82  58  78 /  10  10  20  40  40
BORGER TX                  82  58  84  63  79 /  10  10  20  50  60
BOYS RANCH TX              83  55  87  62  77 /  10   5  10  50  50
CANYON TX                  82  55  85  61  76 /  10   5  10  50  60
CLARENDON TX               83  57  84  62  76 /  20  10  20  50  60
DALHART TX                 79  54  85  59  76 /  10  10  20  40  50
GUYMON OK                  79  55  83  61  79 /  20  10  30  50  50
HEREFORD TX                83  55  87  61  76 /  10   5  10  50  60
LIPSCOMB TX                81  57  81  63  78 /  20  20  30  50  60
PAMPA TX                   80  56  81  61  76 /  20  10  20  50  60
SHAMROCK TX                82  58  83  63  76 /  20  20  20  50  60
WELLINGTON TX              84  60  86  65  78 /  20  10  20  50  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17





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