Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

094
FXUS64 KAMA 182336
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
636 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.AVIATION...

For the 00Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period.

There are signs in the model output for low level wind sheer
around 1000 feet sometime around 06Z and 12Z between the three
terminals as a jet around 45 knots looks possible. I may add this
with an amendment after some newer model data comes in, but I
wanted to make note of that now for planning purposes. Its mainly
speeds shear as not much turning is evident from the surface
to the low level jet. Otherwise, it will be breezy tomorrow
afternoon into early evening.

Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The cloudy start to the day has slowed our warming potential. Most
of the area has struggles to reach the 80 degree mark. This will
also hurt our storm chances given that we will struggle to break
the cap. The HRRR is still holding onto an isolated storm across
the eastern zones this evening. Have gone with a 10 POP to cover
this isolated chance but confidence is pretty low.

On Tuesday, we will see the typical Panhandle winds return to the
area. Southwestern winds will quickly be on the rise through the
morning hours as a lee side low moves across eastern Colorado.
Winds will top our in the 15 to 25 mph range with briefly higher
gusts. Given that our high temperatures are expected to be in the
90s could result in fire weather concerns (see Fire Weather
section below). Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a cold
front is expected to drop into the Panhandles. Northerly winds and
a cooler airmass over the area will help to keep out high
temperatures near normal across the northern zones.

Thursday will see the upper flow become southwesterly as a low
moves southward from the Pacific Northwest. This pattern is
expected to persist through the weekend. This pattern will also
result in multiple chance for precipitation as embedded shortwaves
within the upper flow moves over the area. There will be enough
shear to draw the eye on the potential for organized convection.
Will continue to monitor as we move closer to the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...
Thanks to slightly cooler high temperatures today our relative
humidities are not expected to drop below 20 percent today. On
Tuesday, we will see much warmer temperatures (daily highs
will run roughly 10 to 20 degrees above normal). These much warmer
temperatures will combine with dew points dropping into the 30s
and 40s to push our minimum relative humidities into the 12 to 20
percent range for the better portion of the Panhandles. Our winds
speeds will also be on the rise throughout the day on Tuesday as a
lee side low moves across eastern Colorado. The tightening
surface pressure gradient will result in 20 ft winds in the 20 to
25 mph sustained. These conditions will result in meteorological
critical fire weather conditions from the far western Oklahoma
Panhandle and the northwestern Texas Panhandle as well as elevated
fire weather conditions for all but the southeastern Texas
Panhandle. With that being said, much of this same area saw
wetting rains last night and early this morning. Wet fuels will
help to mitigate our fire weather expectations. A Fire Danger
Statement may be warranted for the far northwestern part of the
area for initial attack activity given how much drying will occur
tomorrow.

Cooler temperatures and lower wind speeds will prohibit elevated
fire weather conditions on Wednesday.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

99/99



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.