Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 221001
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
501 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE JUST ABOUT EXITED THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE MAIN TIMING FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE PANHANDLES. SURFACE TROUGH OVER
NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
THIS FRONT IS SET TO STALL OUT IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SETTING UP A ZONE OF BOTH SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TODAY...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD CROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE THINGS...COMBINED WITH
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHT/S CONVECTION...SHOULD LEAD TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. BY THURSDAY...A RENEWED AREA OF
LEE TROUGHING SETS UP AND PUSHES THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES EASTWARD AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH AND AXIS OF CONVERGENCE SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS LOWER FOR THURSDAY...BUT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

BY FRIDAY....SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
CROSS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE PANHANDLES AS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A
SURFACE LOW AND KEEPS POPS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                73  50  75  52  82 /  40  30  10  10   5
BEAVER OK                  61  45  66  51  83 /  20  30  20  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              63  46  75  46  77 /  30  20  10  10  10
BORGER TX                  69  52  75  55  84 /  30  30  20  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              73  50  79  50  82 /  30  20  10  10   5
CANYON TX                  74  50  77  51  80 /  30  30  10  10   5
CLARENDON TX               73  52  72  54  83 /  40  30  20  10  10
DALHART TX                 68  47  78  47  79 /  20  20  10  10   5
GUYMON OK                  62  47  72  50  82 /  30  20  20  20  10
HEREFORD TX                78  49  79  49  81 /  30  30  10  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                62  47  66  54  83 /  40  30  20  20  10
PAMPA TX                   67  49  69  53  81 /  40  30  20  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                71  51  68  55  84 /  50  50  20  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              75  54  71  57  87 /  40  50  20  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/18




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