Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 030500
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1100 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED WINDSHEAR TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID- MORNING TUESDAY AS SOUNDING/SODAR DATA SHOWING 20 TO 40
KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET...AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 50 OR 60 KT WINDS AROUND 2000 FT LATER TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY
SCATTERING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. DESPITE
THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...LATEST AMA SOUNDING SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER IT. HIGHER DEW POINTS
ARE ALSO ADVECTING THIS WAY. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A
LITTLE COMPARED TO PAST COUPLE DAYS WORTH OF RUNS. THE COULD BE SOME
SORT OF A MAX TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA LATER TUESDAY
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...NEARLY ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
SNOW PROSPECTS TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NRN ZONES. PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY BEGIN AS EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO
NEXT MONDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/15




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.