Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 271124
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
624 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT WINDS WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS WILL VEER FROM
NORTHEAST INITIALLY THIS MORNING TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NM STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OF THESE AFFECTING KDHT...BUT THE
PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AS THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE TERMINAL. SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A FIRMLY PLANTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE PANHANDLES UNDER
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE
REGION THIS WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE PRESENT MOST OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THIS TYPICAL
SUMMER TYPE PATTERN SHOULD YIELD ON AND OFF CLIMATOLOGICAL 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES MOST DAYS. CURRENTLY EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOCUSED
IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
COULD EASILY CHANGE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE SURFACE TROUGHS CAN DEVELOP.
OVERALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL PROBABLY
ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH HELPS TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN LOW...THOUGH
ANYTIME MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLES THERE IS SOME
CHANCE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/06





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