Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 180451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1151 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

East and southeast surface winds expected overnight and Saturday
morning, with no low clouds or fog expected.  By early afternoon,
southeast and east surface winds expected to gust into the 20 to 25
kt range.  A few late afternoon high-based cumulus may develop.  VFR
forecast continues next 24 hours.



.Prev Discussion... /Issued 642 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016/

Light and variable surface winds will continue for a few hours  west
of the dryline, where weak surface pressure gradient in place.
Dryline retreats to the west this evening, with southeast or east
surface winds prevailing thereafter.  Generally clear sky is
forecast with no visibility restrictions foreseen.  VFR forecast
continues next 24 hours.

Afternoon temperatures on Saturday expected to be lower than those of
today.  Thus, density altitudes on Saturday should remain below 6000


Prev Discussion... /Issued 354 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016/

Hot temperatures will remain the story through most of this next
week as subsidence beneath an upper-level ridge of high pressure
bakes the region. This weekend into next week look generally dry,
though an isolated thunderstorm sometime over the next few days
cannot be ruled out.

Short Term...
Analysis of water vapor imagery this afternoon shows dry air in
place over much of the central CONUS beneath the ridge and a few
small shortwaves riding around the periphery of the ridge. There is
also evidence of a weak low pressure system over SW Kansas in water
vapor imagery, with a reflection of this low seen in surface obs
across the Panhandles. A dryline extending south from the surface low
separates mid-60s to low-70s dewpoints in the far eastern Panhandles
from dewpoints in the 20s and 30s across the western Panhandles.
Temperatures and heat index values in the southern Texas have climbed
to near 105 to 110 in some locations.

By tomorrow the core of the upper ridge will shift northwestward to
be centered over New Mexico, allowing northerly or even
northeasterly flow aloft over our region. This and a shift to
southeasterly upslope winds at the surface should knock our high
temperatures down by a few degrees for the weekend. Low-level
moisture across the eastern Panhandles may be sufficient enough to
support a few thunderstorms tomorrow evening, especially if a
shortwave in the northerly flow aloft passes late in the day.
Have left POPs mentionable for now, as confidence is low and expected
coverage would be very low as well. Otherwise rain chances should
remain east of the forecast area through Sunday.


Long Term...
A ridge of high pressure at 500 MB continues to dominate the weather
patterns in the long term. On Monday, this feature should be located
in the Four Corners region. At this point in the long term forecast,
the models are in fair agreement on placement and intensity of the
ridge. Likewise, at the surface the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
will be located between an area of higher surface pressure to the
east, and an area of lower pressure to the west. This will keep our
winds mostly out of the south southeast for the first several days of
next week. This will also help to bring in and retain any moisture
available which will help to keep high temperature values down. High
temperature values are forecasted to stay mostly in the low to mid

Tuesday the models start to diverge in their solutions of the upper
level ridge as far as location and intensity go. The ECMWF begins to
move the ridge of high pressure eastward and by Wednesday has the
feature resting over the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. However, the
GFS hangs back a little, and keeps the high to our west. This
difference will create some discrepancies as far as precipitation and
temperature go. The GFS has a chance for showers and thunderstorms
beginning Wednesday night and remaining through the end of this
forecast period, while the ECMWF has us remaining dry and areas
surrounding us getting most of the rainfall. The rainfall chances
will depend mostly on the placement of the high and the flow aloft
which will influence any storms forming in New Mexico and moving east
into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Since confidence and
agreement of the long term models is so low this far out, have
decided to leave chances of precipitation below ten percent. Have
trended with a consensus of model guidance for the latter portions of
the forecast.

Temperatures for the first week of summer look to stay in the 90s and
should gradually get a little warmer each day throughout the week.
Downsloping winds will aid in the increased temperatures. Expect
calmer winds towards the end of the week and mostly sunny skies.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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