Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

18Z TAFs - VFR conditions will continue through this period.
Sustained southwest winds near 15kts with gusts near 20-25kts will
subside near sunset and become more southeasterly. LLWS might be a
consideration early Wednesday morning as the winds just off the
surface will be out of the southwest around 30 to 40kts. Gusty
southwest winds will return tomorrow morning as well, and increasing
VFR clouds.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/


Warm and dry conditions are expected across the Panhandles today as
high temperature increase into the 90s area wide. South to southwest
winds are expected to increase into the 15 to 20 mph range this
afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in response to a
lee side surface low over central Colorado.

On Wednesday, an upper level trough is anticipated to lift
northeastward out of the Colorado Rockies. The ridge of high pressure
which has brought pleasant weather to the Panhandles for the past few
days will weakened slightly to allow trailing vort lobes behind the
trough to move across the northwestern zones. This will help to
promote thunderstorms across the New Mexico Northeastern Plains.
These storms will follow the shortwaves and move into the western
Oklahoma and northwestern Texas Panhandles during the early
afternoon. Instability will be hard to come by so severe weather is
not anticipated at this time. Storms should dissipate by early
Thursday morning as the vorticity lobes move east of the Panhandles.

The Panhandles will stay on the western edge of the upper low
Thursday and Friday to keep the area dry as a cut-off low moves into
the Four Corners Region. This upper low will bring us our next area
wide rain chances late Friday through Sunday. Medium range models
still aren`t in great agreement with this low, but a general
consensus of the low splitting into two separate lows is evident. The
southern closed low takes a southerly track as a cold front sweeps
across the area Sunday. The front will bring much cooler conditions
to the area for the start of next week while also clearing the area
of rain chances late Sunday night. Forecast models do show better
instability (1000-2000 J/kg) mainly on Saturday so an isolated strong
storm can`t be ruled out.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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