Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 232144
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
344 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING
FOR SUBSIDENCE TO PREVAIL. LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO LINGERING SNOW COVER. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY POSSIBLY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TONIGHT WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
LATE TUESDAY. THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
PANHANDLES...AND...ALONG WITH IT COMES OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CLOSER TO 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HAVE LOWERED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INCREASES POPS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. BEYOND THAT...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS SETTING UP SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKEND WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPING IN THE JET OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE KEPT
A MENTION OF POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DID TRY TO
FOCUS ON THE STRONGER WAVES WITHIN THE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OR
NOT...AND HOW COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS THERE IS QUITE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHETHER WE WARM UP AGAIN BETWEEN THE
FRONTS ON FRIDAY AND THE NEXT ONE SUNDAY NIGHT.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                15  39  20  49  22 /   5   5   5   5  30
BEAVER OK                   9  39  18  46  19 /   5   5   5   5  30
BOISE CITY OK              13  39  21  44  17 /   5   5   5   5  40
BORGER TX                  17  41  21  49  22 /   5   5   5   5  40
BOYS RANCH TX              15  41  21  51  23 /   5   5   5   5  40
CANYON TX                  14  39  19  50  23 /   5   5   5   5  30
CLARENDON TX               15  42  20  52  23 /   5   5   5   5  30
DALHART TX                  8  39  17  46  21 /   5   5   5   5  40
GUYMON OK                  11  39  17  45  20 /   5   5   5   5  40
HEREFORD TX                14  40  20  51  23 /   5  10   5   5  30
LIPSCOMB TX                14  39  18  47  23 /   5   5   5   5  30
PAMPA TX                   15  38  20  47  18 /   5   5   5   5  30
SHAMROCK TX                16  41  17  51  24 /   5   5   5   5  30
WELLINGTON TX              19  43  24  54  26 /   5   5   5   5  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...
     ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

11/18




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