Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 162314
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
514 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE PANHANDLES EARLY TONIGHT WITH A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE OF SOME LOW CLOUDS
OR EVEN POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z
MONDAY. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH BY 15Z MONDAY 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THE NEAR TERM AND ONGOING SNOW TODAY. AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON ONE BAND OF HEAVIER REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR WAS
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. CALLS
TO SPOTTERS IN THESE LOCATIONS REVEAL THAT THE SNOW IS QUITE DRY
WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING...EVEN IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND.
TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS.
CONCERNS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE BAND HAVE BEEN
ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RATES SEEM TO BE AROUND
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR. PLAN VIEW OF OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE SHOWS A MARKED DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONFIRM RAPID DRYING IN MID LEVELS BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES LINGERING FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEHIND THE MAIN BAND.

CONCERNS THEN SHIFT TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WITH SNOW COVER AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT
SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE EXACT POSITION OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH AND ITS
INFLUENCE ON WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW KEPT THE
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST SNOWFALL THE LOWEST AND THE AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE A NOTABLE WESTERLY WIND...ALBEIT STILL LIGHT...THE
HIGHEST. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SNOW IS ONGOING.
SOME GUIDANCE HAS LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES THERE. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT GIVEN SNOW
COVER AND LIGHT WINDS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION AND A PROFILE THAT SEEMS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
FROST.

A DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND ONLY WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR WITH TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
AFTER A RETURN TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EVEN SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DISAGREES IN AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING...FELT THAT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA GIVEN BY A CONSENSUS BLEND WAS REASONABLE AND DID NOT CHANGE
THESE.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

AVIATION...
SNOW BANDING CONTINUES TO CREATE ISSUES AT KAMA AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT KDHT TO START OFF THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONDITIONS WITHIN THE
STRONGEST BANDING...KAMA...WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR.
KDHT...CURRENTLY AT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW...HAS ALREADY IMPROVED
TO MVFR AND KGUY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF BLOWING
SNOW DROPS VISIBILITY BRIEFLY AT THE TERMINALS ONCE SNOW ENDS.
SPEAKING OF SNOW ENDING...KGUY IS THROUGH WITH SNOW WITH KDHT LIKELY
TO SEE THE END WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OF THIS ISSUANCE. KAMA LOOKS TO
HAVE 3-4 MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOW
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS HINT AT
POSSIBLE FREEZING FOG/BR TOMORROW MORNING FOR KAMA BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAF GIVEN THE SHALLOWNESS OF MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/08





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