Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 161716

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1216 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017


For the 18Z TAFs:

Outside of VFR conditions prevailing throughout the valid TAF
period, there will be a concern for low level wind shear (LLWS)
Saturday morning between 07Z and 12Z. Models are hinting at a
near 40 knot jet (from the southwest) around 500 to 1000 feet.
This would barely meet criteria for LLWS. This is 18 hours out, so
this could change and therefore decided to omit for now.
Nevertheless, with likely calm variable wind speeds at the
surface, a 40 knot jet right above the surface will make for a
noticeable impact for both speed and directional shear.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 631 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/

For the 12Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail at the terminal
sites through 12Z Saturday.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 349 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/

Fairly rich moisture remains in place across the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles early this morning, with surface dewpoints in
the mid-50s to lower-60s.  RAP analysis indicates 850 mb dewpoint
axis running through eastern New Mexico and western Panhandles
with values of 13 to 16 degrees Celsius, and only slightly lower
in eastern sections.  Thus, dryline expected to be slow to mix
eastward today.  Have opted to include isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms in eastern sections today, with pops less
than 20 percent.  Insolation today will allow temperatures to
rise to and above 100 degrees Fahrenheit over most sections,
leading to surface-based buoyancy.  If cap in eastern sections
can be broken, perhaps as minor ripple in northwest flow
traverses, 1000 to 4000 J/kg will be available for thunderstorm
development.  With 30 to 40 kt of shear expected, potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms exists.

Otherwise, very few changes to previous forecast.  Heat Advisory
maintained for today and Saturday with highs at or above 105
degrees Fahrenheit.  Cold front arrives Saturday night, bringing
welcome relief on Sunday, with highs mainly in the 80s.  Tiny
warmup expected on Monday as cool post-frontal surface ridge is
displaced eastward.  Respite comes to an end on Tuesday with
maxima around 100 degrees expected for most locations through
Thursday, owing to massive mid-level ridge extending through
southwestern CONUS into southern plains.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Deaf Smith...Oldham...Randall.

OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following
     zones: Texas.



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