Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 222332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
632 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

00Z Issuance...VFR conditions expected through the period for all
sites. Gusty northerly winds should drop off over the next hour
and continue calming overnight as they turn clockwise to the
south. Gusty southwest winds will pickup again tomorrow after 15Z.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

Post-frontal ridge of high pressure will settle into the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles tonight.  Following today`s sub-normal high
temperatures, we will be off to a good start for a cold night.
Will issue a frost advisory for all but southeast corner of
forecast area.  Prediction of surface ridge axis placement
between midnight and 12z suggests effective radiation will occur
before resumption of southwest winds slows the process.

Lee trof development gets underway on Sunday and Monday as mid-
level flow becomes better established. Low-level moisture
expected to be directed into areas east of Panhandles through this

On Tuesday, shortwave trof passes across northern sections,
driving a weak cold front into the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern
Texas Panhandle, with a few showers being possible as mid-level
instability increases.

Chances for thunderstorms begin Tuesday night and continue through
end of forecast, with northern sections being most favored as
higher mid-level theta-e air is tapped with passage of initial
shortwave.  Better quality low-level moisture becomes available
Thursday, but huge disparity exists between models regarding
dryline placement and timing of cold front and surface wave.
Have continued with higher pops across northern sections, where
better opportunities for wrap-around moisture will be exist, while
southern sections will be less likely to benefit.  Clouds and
cooler conditions should limit severe potential.  03


North and northeast winds this evening will become light and
variable before sunrise. Southwest winds will resume on Sunday,
but relative humidity will remain above 20 percent. Southwest
winds increase on Monday with elevated fire weather conditions
expected to develop over all but far eastern sections. West winds
ahead of a cold front on Tuesday will lead to elevated fire
weather conditions across the southwest half of the Texas
Panhandle. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on
Wednesday across the far southwest Texas Panhandle.  03


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...

OK...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for the
     following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.



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