Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

000
FXUS64 KAMA 241150 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
650 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT
KAMA AND KGUY...AS 50-60KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1000 FT AND
1500 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN WINDS WILL MIX
OUT AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY UP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTEST AT KGUY. WIND
SHIFT EXPECTED TO BRING NORTH WINDS TO KGUY CLOSE TO 06Z.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
VERY FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  DRY AND WINDY
THROUGH TUESDAY.  GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT.

IN SPITE OF DEWPOINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
..EXPECT DRYLINE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EAST OF PANHANDLES.  MID-LEVEL TROF EXTENDING SOUTH OF
CLOSED LOW IN WYOMING WILL TRAVERSE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BRINGING
WITH IT DRIER CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

NEXT SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED TROF DRIVING DRYLINE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.

THIRD SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  MODELS DIFFER ON DURATION OF CLOSED LOW...BUT DO
AGREE THAT TROF WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING.  HEALTHY POPS HAVE BEEN
RETAINED FOR ALL SECTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO
EXPECTED AVAILABILITY OF ADEQUATE GULF MOISTURE AND PERIODS OF
UPSLOPE FLOW.  BY SATURDAY...DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS...WITH DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS BEGINNING.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
DUE TO RECENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS...VEGETATION GREENUP...AND LOW
ERC VALUES...NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DESPITE METEOROLOGICALY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE
TODAY...ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY...AND
ACROSS ALL SECTIONS ON TUESDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WINDS
PREVAIL.  03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                86  50  85  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  86  51  82  52  85 /   5   0   0   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              81  43  79  47  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  87  54  85  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              86  49  85  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  85  48  85  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               87  54  86  56  86 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 84  46  83  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  85  48  82  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                84  49  85  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                86  53  83  55  85 /   5   5   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   86  53  84  54  83 /   5   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                87  54  86  56  87 /   5   5   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              88  54  87  58  89 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/3



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.