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000
FXUS64 KAMA 022340
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
540 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIP EAST OF THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING...CAUSING WEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY EARLY EVENING. THE
TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
KAMA...WHERE GUSTS OVER 30 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH A LITTLE
LIGHTER WINDS TO THE NORTH AND KDHT AND KGUY /GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KTS/. A COLD FRONT COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE TAIL END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...WHEN IT WILL BE
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR AT KGUY.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE TOMORROW.

TOMORROW...THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF THE REGION WAS ABLE TO REACH
THE 60S BY MID DAY. WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FOR AT LEAST HALF THE DAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TOMORROW TO GET AT LEAST
THE HIGH...EVEN IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES A BIT EARLIER IN THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS DUE TO ARRIVE IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES NO LATER THAN 00Z...AND THROUGH ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES BY 06Z.

WEDNESDAY...THIS COULD BE ANOTHER TRICKY DAY FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES COULD RESULT IN A WARM
FRONT APPROACHING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AT THIS POINT...DOUBT THAT THE
WARM FRONT WILL ENTER THE PANHANDLE GIVEN HOW COLD AND DENSE THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS IS. STILL...THERE COULD BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT JUST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE.

THURSDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE PRIME PERIOD FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION
AS THE MAIN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES...AND THE
REGION IS SITUATED UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.
FORCING AND LIFT IS LIMITED TO A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL SOLUTION USED...THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON
WHEN EXACTLY THIS WILL BE. AT THIS POINT...THINK THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE FROM 18Z TO 06Z. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF SNOW FOR
WEATHER TYPE...AS IT APPEARS THAT BY THE TIME THE FORCING IS IN
PLACE...THE SATURATED LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
BELOW -10C. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...AND SLEET IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY IN THE EVENT...THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION BY THIS
POINT...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED...SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH.

FRIDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRYING TREND FROM THE TOP DOWN
BEGINNING 06Z FRIDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER WELL
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. SOME FREEZING FOG OR EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS NEAR SATURATION. THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS HOWEVER...SHOULD END BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD AIR STAYS IN PLACE. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SATURDAY WHICH
SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED...SO HAVE KEPT
THESE PERIODS DRY FOR NOW.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE
/20 FT/ TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
HUMIDITY MINIMA BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT. THESE ELEVATED/NEAR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MITIGATED BY RELATIVELY
MOIST VEGETATIVE FUELS IN THE WAKE OF RECENT SNOW COVER AS INDICATED
BY ERC VALUES IN THE SUB-CRITICAL 35-40 RANGE. THEREAFTER...THE
ONSET OF COLD AND RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
WILDLAND FIRE CONCERNS.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/11