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000
FXUS64 KAMA 242200
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/

A COMPACT BUT INTENSE MID LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER ARIZONA. A 130 KT JET IS NOSING
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE.
FORCING/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND ENHANCED RADAR ECHOES OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE IS AMBLE SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR TO NEGATE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO BRIEFLY
SATURATE PROFILES BENEATH THE COLD CORE OF THE EJECTING LOW TONIGHT
AND JUST AS FORCING/ASCENT WANES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06-10Z. A FEW
MODELS ADDITIONALLY GENERATE LIGHT QPF SIGNALS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF INTERMITTENT FLURRIES. IN
ADDITION...TODAY/S SNOW MELT MAY HELP PROMOTE PATCHY FOG...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS MAY HELP MINIMIZE THAT THREAT.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TOMORROW...BUT THE NEXT
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF
THE PASSING LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MARK THE ONSET OF A
COLDER AND MORE MOIST WEATHER PATTERN.

LINDLEY

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE DURING THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES BRING SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.

FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY TRACK
EAST ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A STRONG
ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL DISLODGE VERY COLD AIR
UPSTREAM LEADING TO MAX TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO BORDER.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE
20S...EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL SNOW. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS CAN GENERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING THE ISSUANCE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESIDE UNDER SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING
SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE NONE OF THESE IMPULSES SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL...OVERRIDING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
RAISES CONCERNS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS
TOO LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                21  49  23  24   8 /  10   5  40  20  40
BEAVER OK                  16  47  20  25  11 /   5   5  20  10  30
BOISE CITY OK              19  45  20  20   7 /  10  10  40  30  40
BORGER TX                  20  51  25  25   9 /  10   5  30  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              20  51  26  26  11 /  10   5  40  20  40
CANYON TX                  20  50  24  26   9 /  10   0  40  20  50
CLARENDON TX               22  54  27  28   9 /  10   0  30  10  40
DALHART TX                 18  49  22  22   8 /  10   5  50  30  40
GUYMON OK                  17  48  21  22   9 /   5   5  30  20  30
HEREFORD TX                21  52  24  25   9 /  10   0  40  20  50
LIPSCOMB TX                18  48  23  25  10 /   5   5  20  10  30
PAMPA TX                   20  47  22  25   7 /  10   0  30  10  30
SHAMROCK TX                21  51  26  30  11 /  10   0  20  10  30
WELLINGTON TX              24  55  28  32  12 /  10   0  20  10  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/05