Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 160805
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
305 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. IF ONE
COULD PIN POINT AN AREA WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IT
WOULD PROBABLY BY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
A SHOWER OR STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL ALL HELP
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM BEING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND TO BEING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. BY MID WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BELIEVE THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN CWA...CLOSER TO ANY DISTURBANCES IN THE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA AS SOME OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY MOVE OVER THIS
AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONE
COULD ARGUE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT...
MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW FAR EAST ANY RAIN WILL GET. IT STILL
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN IMPINGE THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE MAY START TO
MOVE BACK TO THE WEST WHICH WOULD SHUNT THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME
FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS WOULD ALSO TEND TO KEEP OUR AREA DRY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                94  68  95  68  94 /  30  30  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                 100  67 101  68 103 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              96  64  97  65  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  98  71 101  74  98 /  30  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              96  68  99  69  97 /  30  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  95  66  96  66  95 /  30  30  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               94  70  96  71  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 95  63  97  64  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  98  67 101  68  99 /  20  20  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                95  65  96  64  94 /  30  30  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                98  68  98  69  99 /  20  20  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   96  69  96  70  95 /  30  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                95  66  98  71  96 /  30  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              98  68  99  70  97 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15



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