Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 231745 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1245 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS
WILL CREATE VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 HOURS OF THIS FCST.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME S TO SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY...WITH NW TO NNW WINDS IN ITS WAKE. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED SOUTH OF KDHT AND
KGUY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR KAMA THIS
MORNING...BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS AT KAMA AND KDHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHTER AT KGUY...WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WEAKER AND VERTICAL MIXING NOT AS DEEP. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AT ALL SITES AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ANY FOG
THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUES OF THIS FORECAST ARE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND
TUESDAY...AND POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  FIRE WEATHER DETAILS ARE BELOW.

SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCED WESTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT...WITH INCIPIENT DRYLINE TAKING SHAPE.  EXPECT DRYLINE TO
BE POSITIONED IN FAR EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
THAT THIS AREA WILL BE WEAKLY CAPPED...MODEST SHORTWAVE TROF
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST DURING PEAK HEATING COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
BREAK THROUGH THE LID.  HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AREA TODAY.  SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG WITH 3/4 INCH HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

OTHERWISE...NO REAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  VERY
WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY IN SPITE OF WEAK COLD FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE
THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONGER COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS THAN THOSE OF TODAY...BUT STILL WELL
ABOVE CLIMO.

ANOTHER...STRONGER...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MAXIMA NEAR CLIMO ARE
EXPECTED.  HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE SHORTWAVE TROF ATOP UPSLOPE FLOW
COULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE NOTABLY COOLER IN WAKE OF
WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT.  WARMER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS COOL
AIRMASS MOVES EAST OF PANHANDLES.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE...AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.  POTTER
AND RANDALL COUNTIES HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED...WHICH INCLUDED DEAF SMITH AND OLDHAM COUNTIES.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS REMAINING SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES.

ON TUESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP.  AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FIRST IN SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES...WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COMING TO AN END.  THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN...WHERE WINDS WILL NOT
DIMINISH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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