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000
FXUS64 KAMA 090548 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1148 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SPLIT WITH ITS NORTHERN BRANCH
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS SECONDARY TROUGH NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRY MID LEVEL AIR HAS HELPED THIN THE VEIL OF CLOUDS THAT
BLANKETED THE AREA THIS MORNING...LEADING TO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN TONIGHT AND AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY.
THIS ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH
ENCOURAGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 60S SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE WX ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. THE
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY...HELPING TO
PUSH TEMPS UP INTO MID TO UPPER 70S. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SPLIT...DECREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE
AREA. FOR HOW DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY
EVENING WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION SETS IN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH ONLY EXPECTING LESS THAN A HALF
OF AN INCH. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.

TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE 60S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A PIECE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM TUESDAY WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT AS IT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE IT GETS ABSORBED INTO
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM
THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 15 MPH...
PRECLUDING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER...ALBEIT
REMAINING UNDER 20 MPH...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING
LEAVING AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT WHILE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS LEAD TO POSSIBLE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 60S.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$