Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 141553
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
953 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Have issued update to graphical and text forecasts.  Have lowered
maximum temperatures for today, increased winds, and expanded
expected impacts of snow.  Have increased pops across southern
sections, and have emphasized snow accumualtions today of one to
two inches across most of southern half of Texas Panhandle.
Based on recent radar trends, and some high-resolution model
depictions of continued snow production along 700 mb deformation
zone, have issued winter weather advisory for 1 to 2 inches of
snow today across most of southern half of Texas Panhandle.  No
other changes at this time.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 517 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/

AVIATION...
Precipitation will end from northwest to southeast during the day.
AMA will have MVFR conditions with possible IFR conditions before
noon.  Conditions will then improve this afternoon into the VFR
range.  DHT and GUY should have prevailing VFR conditions.
However, DHT may have a rain shower this morning which may take
conditions down into the MVFR range.  North winds will be in the
15 to 25 knot range with higher gusts, but they will decrease with
the setting sun.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 443 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A closed upper low will pass east across the southern Texas
Panhandle or the northern portions of the Texas South Plains
region today. Wrap around precipitation will be possible this
morning across the northern and western quadrants of the combined
Panhandles. Forecast soundings, 850 mb temps, and thickness values
suggest the precipitation should be either snow or rain as temps
remain just above freezing with thickness values around 544 and
546 dkm this morning and 850 mb temps around 0 to -0.5 deg C to
around +1 to +2 deg C. Any snow this morning will likely melt
except on grassy surfaces and accumulations of up to an inch will
be possible. Decided to go ahead and cancel the Winter Weather
Advisory as snow has yet to develop and any snow this morning
should only result in light accumulations before the precipitation
ends this afternoon from northwest to southeast. Although some
light rain will be possible this afternoon mainly across the
southern and eastern portions of the Texas Panhandle, most of the
rain should quickly end by late today. Decreasing cloudiness
likely tonight as subsidence prevails.

A moderating trend commences Wednesday through the end of the week
as an upper ridge tries to build in from the west. Another closed
upper low lifts northeast out of Mexico and across southwest Texas
Thursday and then across northwest Texas Friday and across the Red
River Valley by Saturday. A cold forecast to push through the
Panhandles late Friday night into early Saturday. Only slightly
cooler over the weekend with continued dry conditions are
expected across the forecast area. Lee surface trough develops by
late in the weekend as low level Gulf moisture advect west and
north into the Panhandles Sunday. Isolated to scattered convection
possible by Sunday afternoon into Sunday night mainly across the
eastern portions of the Panhandles, although all of the forecast
should be affect by the convection. No severe weather is expected
at least at this time Sunday into Sunday night. Drier conditions
early next week.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Deaf Smith...Donley...
     Gray...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Wheeler.

OK...None.

&&

$$

03/07



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