Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 191741 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1241 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

Skies are expected to remain VFR through this forecast. Any TSRA are
expected to remain south of the AMA site. Southerly winds around 10
knots will prevail.


.Prev Discussion... /Issued 622 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016/

12Z TAFs - MVFR conditions are already evident this morning across
the Panhandles in either the fog or ceiling form, and this will
likely continue for the next few hours. Low to medium confidence that
both visibility and/or ceilings could drop to IFR just after sunrise.
Afterward, VFR conditions are expected and southeasterly winds near
15kts through the remainder of today. Winds will vary some overnight
tonight, but still favor mostly a southeasterly to southerly
direction through Monday morning.


Prev Discussion... /Issued 439 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016/

The latest tstm complex currently over swrn Ok and ern sections of
the low rolling plains should pretty much miss our fcst area except
for Collingsworth county, which is getting grazed by this complex
with a few showers and tstms. Expect the shield of precipitation to
continue tracking swwd this morning. Otherwise, generally dry
weather is anticipated for the remainder of the TX and OK Panhandles
today as an upper level ridge of high pressure over the central and
srn plains and swrn states remains in control of our weather.

This upper level ridge of high pressure is now progged to reorient
itself wwd early this week...then expand ewd again and encompass the
sw and scntrl states for the middle and latter part of the week.
Based on latest 00Z model guidance, it now appears the steering flow
will become temporarily favorable for bringing tstms ewd from sern CO
and ern NM Thursday through Friday night. Have incorporated slgt chc
pops for nwrn sections Thursday, then spread low pops ewd to include
most of the fcst area Thursday night through Friday night, which is
in agreement with model consensus. Above normal temperatures are
expected durg the next 7 days due to the presence of the upper level
ridge of high pressure.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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