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000
FXUS64 KAMA 112333 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY 15Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AFTER 15Z.

KNS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/

A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO WILL NOT MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS TO THE EAST TODAY DUE TO UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLID SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A DALHART TO SHAMROCK LINE. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE
SOUTH AN A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

SURFACE LEE SIDE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY...
LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MEANWHILE THE
AREA WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CUTOFF LOW IN WESTERN
MEXICO. HENCE EXPECT A PLEASANT LATE SPRING DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME
HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH TUESDAY WILL ALSO LED
TO INCREASING WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS BEYOND TUESDAY WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DISPLAYING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE AND
THUS ANY THUNDER CHANCES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP NEXT
WEEKEND BUT TIME WILL TELL IF THIS WILL ACTUALLY VERIFY.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
20 MPH...PRECLUDING ANY ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND RESULTANT BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TUESDAY CAN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 TO 20 PERCENT ARE
EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE SLIM.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$