Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 200531 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1131 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017
For the 06Z TAFs, little change to previous Aviation AFD reasoning.
IFR to LIFR conditions in terms of vsby due to fog and low cigs are
expected to persist at KGUY into mid morning Friday. Low cigs and
fog should erode at KGUY by around late Friday morning. Breezy to
windy conditions are expected at all terminal sites on Friday as
surface pressures fall as a fast moving upper level storm system
zips across the area. Highest winds overall should be at KAMA, with
lowest speeds at KGUY. Wind gusts will be close to 40 knots at KAMA,
and an Aviation Weather Warning for wind may need to be considered
on Friday. Winds will diminish by sunset Friday. No precipitation is
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 550 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/
For the 00Z TAFs, some concern exists for a period of low clouds and
areas of BR at KGUY late tonight into Friday morning, and have
retained previous fcstrs idea. Any low clouds and fog should erode by
mid to late Friday morning at KGUY. Breezy to windy conditions are
expected at all terminal sites on Friday as surface pressures fall
as a fast moving upper level storm system moves across the area.
Highest winds overall should be at KAMA, with lowest speeds at KGUY.
Wind gusts will be close to 40 knots at KAMA, and an Aviation Weather
Warning for wind may become necessary on Friday. No precipitation is
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/
No big changes have been made with this forecast. Above-normal high
temperatures are expected through Monday. A cold front Tuesday will
set highs back to at or below normal Tuesday through Tuesday.
Potential for wintry precipitation looks to be confined to late
Tuesday night only, and to only the northeast one quarter of the
Combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Areas of fog are expected to develop late tonight across eastern
sections, where backing winds tonight will hold low-level moisture in
Mid-level ridge behind departing closed low expected to quickly
traverse the forecast area tonight. Next shortwave trof passes
through on Friday, with falling heights causing windy conditions on
Friday. Deep westerly low-level winds across southern sections will
induce warming, likely increasing the baroclinicity along deepening
surface wave over northern sections during the day.
After cold front`s brief intrusion into northern sections late Friday
and Friday evening, more westerly low-level flow will act to
dissipate the boundary. Warm air advection ahead of next shortwave
trof will support chances for rain on Saturday. Lack of cold air
lead us to lower our concerns for wintry weather. Brief opportunity
for light snow now appears to be only late Saturday night in
northeast part of forecast area as developing closed low departs.
Abundant sunshine on Sunday allows for respectable warmup in spite of
post-frontal airmass. Warm also on Monday. Tuesday`s system looks
to be dry, with windy conditions again ahead of Tuesday`s cold
No elevated or critical fire weather conditions expected through
Thursday due to relative humidity values remaining above necessary
thresholds. Windy conditions on Friday and Tuesday may cause an
increase in fire spread potential. 03