Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 251726 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1126 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...MAIN AVIATION THREAT TODAY WILL BE WIND.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. WINDS AT KAMA...KDHT AND KGUY WILL BE AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY AROUND 00Z TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. REMOVED THE THREAT OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 00Z AS MODEL DATA INDICATES WINDS NOT AS
STRONG OFF THE SURFACE...NOW MORE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
10Z AND 12Z.

GARCIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG JET STREAK IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  LIGHT
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND TO SOUTHWEST BY
NOON.  SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.  AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED AROUND KAMA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECOUPLE.  LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TREND TO
LIGHT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  NO EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND QUESTIONS SURROUNDING
THE NEXT NOTABLE COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT THIS FORECAST.

A PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSED
EASTWARD OVER WEST TEXAS WITH NO FANFARE OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...A GENERALLY ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH...LEE TROUGHING WILL COMMENCE TODAY
WITH A SUFFICIENT MSLP GRADIENT TO SUPPORT BREEZY 15 TO 25 MPH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL BE DECREASED A
BIT IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP TO PROMOTE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO USHER IN A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC
AIR WEDNESDAY. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...THE INFLUX OF
THIS MILD AIRMASS WILL ACTUALLY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT
WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALL NWP GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS
RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...
CLIMBING TO SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS APPEAR IN BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE NEXT
MEANINGFUL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH ORIGINATING OVER
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...THE CORE OF THIS AIRMASS IS PROGGED AT
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH AS IT EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS...COMPARED TO
1045 MB WITH THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC INTRUSION. BOTH THE LESS AMPLIFIED
FLOW ALOFT AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS AIRMASS ARGUES FOR A MORE
PERIPHERAL EFFECT...WHICH STILL WARRANTS A COOL DOWN OF NEARLY 20
DEGREE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

LINDLEY

FIRE WEATHER...
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH THESE CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH
ELEVATED THRESHOLDS...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING
EFFECTS OF RECENT COLD/MOISTURE EVENTS WILL HELP TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
FIRE POTENTIAL. IT IS NOTABLE THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/DRYING
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT NO INSTANCES OF CRITICAL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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