Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 290343
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1043 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DUE TO PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 10-15Z. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY AFFECT KDHT AND KGUY MONDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED A
VCTS MENTION ACCORDINGLY. CONFIDENCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KAMA
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEVADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY AND WILL GET RE-ORGANIZED OVER
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...THE PANHANDLES WILL
COME UNDER INCREASING LIFT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A STAGE FOR A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SO
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THERE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE EASTERN CWA BY TUESDAY...
SO LINGERED POPS ALONG THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH A TRAILING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
PANHANDLES WILL BE ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE ANY
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND
CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY IN THE FORECAST WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/11





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