Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 180543
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE KAMA TERMINAL THROUGH AT
LEAST 18/15Z. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. THESE MAY INTERMITTENTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY/CIGS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BY 18/09-12Z...HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL PROFILES SUGGESTS STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT BOTH
KAMA AND KDHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF LIGHT FOG FOR BOTH OF
THESE TERMINALS...BUT CONDITIONS MAY IN FACT BECOME WORSE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL MONITOR THESE TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
.HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES LATER THIS WEEK...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN
OUR WEATHER HERE IN THE TX AND OK PNHDLS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR
TONIGHT...A LAREG PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE
AREA WITH AN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ADVANCING ENEWD FROM THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS INTO EXTRM SRN TX PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY AND WENT WITH AREAL QUALIFIER WORDING FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS SRN TX PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

ON THURSDAY...SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS FAVORED FOR THE WRN AND SRN TX
PNHDL AS REMNANTS OF ODILE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL THEN SPREAD FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE FCST AREA.

IT APPEARS...BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE REMAINS OF
ODILE...THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND
HAVE RETAINED THE LIKELY POPS AND EVEN RAISED SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
CONTEMPLATED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BY LATER SHIFTS IF WARRANTED.

IF MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY...PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING SLGT CHC
POPS FOR SUNDAY APPEAR PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

IT STILL APPEARS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PROGGED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL EJECT
EWD AND NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE OFFERS
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE TX AND OK PNHDLS...AND HAVE
INCORPORATED SLGT CHC POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/03




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