Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 220854
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
354 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Another warm day is expected today, with highs in the upper-80s to
mid-90s.  There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening across the far northwest part of the combined
panhandles, where stronger mid-level flow may direct a few
thunderstorms into the area.

GFS and ECMWF in good agreement through Saturday afternoon.  Mid-
level closed low develops in base of shortwave trof early this
evening in the Great Basin, and then lifts northeast to eastern
Montana by late Saturday, steering well clear of the Panhandles.
Southwest flow aloft ahead of parent shortwave trof will draw mid-
level moisture into the area, with chances for thunderstorms Friday
afternoon through Sunday night.  On Saturday and Saturday night,
better chances will exist across the eastern half of the area, as the
mid-level moisture plume is shunted eastward while a Pacific cold
front or dryline feature enters western sections.

Polar front arrives late Saturday night and Sunday morning,
providing better chances for thunderstorms.  Brisk north winds with
cold front will make for a chilly Sunday morning, with highs on
Sunday in the 60s and lower 70s.  Chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue Sunday night as additional dynamics pass
through shortwave trof.  Cool on Monday with a chance of showers,
with dry conditions thereafter.  Monday and Tuesday mornings look to
be the coolest of the season, with lows in the 40s all sections by
Tuesday morning.  Modest warmup begins on Tuesday, with highs near
80 by Wednesday.

Cockrell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                90  61  87  61  83 /   0   0   5  20  20
Beaver OK                  94  65  91  64  86 /   5   0   5  30  30
Boise City OK              90  62  88  51  79 /  10   5  20  40  10
Borger TX                  93  66  89  64  85 /   0   0   5  20  20
Boys Ranch TX              92  62  89  58  85 /   5   0   5  30  10
Canyon TX                  89  61  87  59  84 /   0   0   5  30  20
Clarendon TX               91  61  89  66  83 /   0   0   5  20  50
Dalhart TX                 91  61  88  53  82 /  10   5  10  40  10
Guymon OK                  94  64  90  58  84 /   5   0   5  40  10
Hereford TX                89  60  87  57  83 /   0   0   5  30  20
Lipscomb TX                92  65  89  66  85 /   0   0   5  20  40
Pampa TX                   90  61  86  62  83 /   0   0   5  20  30
Shamrock TX                91  64  89  68  84 /   0   0   5  20  50
Wellington TX              92  65  90  69  85 /   0   0   0  20  50

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

14/03



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