Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 170531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1231 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017


For the 06Z TAFs:

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals throughout the valid
TAF period. There is a small cluster of thunderstorms across
western parts of the Oklahoma Panhandle that could hold together
and impact KGUY, but chances are this will not come to fruition
and KGUY should remain VFR.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 620 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017/

Low confidence on the first 6 hours of the 00Z TAF cycle due to
convection chances so expect amends. Believe that KAMA will be
free of doing directly impacted by convection due to previous
storms overturning the atmosphere in that area. KDHT and KGUY will
have fairly decent chances of being impacted during the first 6
hours. Hi-res models show both of these terminals being impacted
prior to 03Z with vicinity storms for KDHT until 6Z. Have adjusted
TEMPO group to account for this. After 06Z most convection should
be diminish with light and variable winds prevailing through the
overnight hours. By midday tomorrow winds will be on the rise as
mixing increases. Southerly winds around 15kt to 20kt are

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 331 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017/

Popcorn showers and thunderstorms have again already started up
over the last hour and a half across the southwestern TX
Panhandle. These storms will mainly be likely over the
southwestern and northeastern areas where cumulus has formed. The
central and southeastern areas have been holding onto some cloud
cover from lingering precip this morning. With very little shear
and instability to work with, these storms should remain below
severe levels. An isolated storm or two may become marginally
severe, as has been the case for a storm near Tulia. Some
storms may linger again in the morning, so have gone with 10 pops
for these. However, for the most part, things should begin to dry
out over this week as the upper level ridge fills in overhead.
Storms will again become possible by Saturday night as the ridge
moves eastward and allows shortwaves to traverse the western edge
of the high pressure.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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