000
FXUS64 KAMA 142052
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
352 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST THOUGH RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES ARE STARTING TO LOOK LESS LIKELY WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS.

SYNOPTICALLY...A WEAK UPR LOW THAT IS DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEK.
ONCE THIS UPR LOW CLEARS THE PLAINS, MID LVL HEIGHT RISES WILL
COMMENCE WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY MIDDAY
FRI. THE PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER, WITH A SUBSTANTIAL
SHRTWV PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THIS SHRTWV WILL SIGNAL
THE ONSET OF NW UPR FLOW THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPR PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG
UPR RIDGING REDEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SFC...AN OSCILLATING DRYLINE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE
WED THROUGH FRI. ONCE THE DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH ON FRI THOUGH, IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL BOTHER RETREATING MUCH. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SHARP UPR WAVE AND ATTENDENT COLD
FRONT PASSING BY DRY SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMEWHERE AROUND MONDAY DAYTIME. DEPENDING ON
TIMING, MONDAY COULD BE ANOTHER HOT ONE, OR A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GIVEN
QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING OF THE FRONT. TUE SHOULD BE COOLEST DAY OF
THE NEXT 7 FOR MOST, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED.

PRECIP CHCS...
VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE NOTED WED
AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON ATTENDENT TO ANY DRYLINE CONFLUENCE OR
WEAK SFC LOW CONVERGENCE THAT CAN OVERCOME MODEST CAPPING. THE MID
AND UPR LVLS LOOK TO BE OF LITTLE HELP, BUT MODEST FLOW ALOFT WOULD
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF ANYTHING WERE TO GET GOING. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES, BUT MOST FOLKS WILL STAY DRY.

HOT, HOT, HOT...
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK WITH SW PANHANDLE
LOCATIONS LIKELY SEEING OUR FIRST 100 PLUS DEGREE READINGS OF THE
YEAR ON FRI (AS LONG AS WE DON`T HIT THEM A DAY EARLY ON THU). MODEL
H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 27-28C THU AND NEAR 31C BY
FRI, FALLING BACK TO THE UPPER 20S ON SAT. OVER THE PAST 2 APR-JUN
PERIODS (2012 AND 2013), A REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF 00Z H85 TEMPS VS
SFC HIGH TEMPS ON SIMILAR WX DAYS WOULD PREDICT 31C TO YIELD A
DAYTIME HIGH OF 100F. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SAMPLE FROM MAY 2012 WAS
DURING "GREEN" VEGETATION PERIODS WITH HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE VALUES
THAN OBSERVED THIS YEAR. GIVEN THE DRIER SOILS AND REDUCED
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION THIS YEAR, ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES CAN LIKELY BE
TACKED ONTO THAT 100F TO YIELD HIGHS OF 101-103 IN THE SWRN
PANHANDLES FRI. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE FURTHER AIDED BY
NEARLY PERFECT 230-250 DEGREE ORIENTATION OF SFC WINDS FOR DOWNSLOPE
WARMING. THE ONLY CAVEAT THAT COULD HOLD READINGS BACK SLIGHTLY
WOULD BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN, BUT IT SURE LOOKS LIKE ANY HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STAY TO THE WEST. THEREFORE, FRI WILL PROBABLY BE A
RECORD BREAKER FOR THE CLIMATE SITES (AND ONLY MISS THE EARLIEST 100
DEGREE DAY ON RECORD BY 2 DAYS!)

SIMPSON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS DIFFICULT THIS WEEK AS MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE IT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE SW WINDS WILL BE BEHIND IT.
HAVE HEDGED TOWARD THE GFS AS IT SHOWS THE DRYLINE MOVING FURTHEST
EAST. BEHIND THE DRYLINE ON THU AND FRI ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY HANGUP POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE THURSDAY WILL BE FROM GUYMON TO CLAUDE. ON FRI...THE
DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH FURTHER EAST AND STRETCH FROM AROUND PERRYTON TO
CLARENDON.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS
MAINLY THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE PANHANDLES AS WINDY AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                59  91  60  97  61 /  10  20  20  10  10
BEAVER OK                  60  90  61  88  63 /   5  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              56  88  56  91  54 /  10  20  20  10   5
BORGER TX                  64  91  61  96  62 /   5  20  20  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              58  94  59  98  56 /   5  20  20  10   5
CANYON TX                  59  92  60  97  59 /  10  20  20  10  10
CLARENDON TX               63  90  63  91  63 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 53  89  55  93  52 /   5  20  20   5   5
GUYMON OK                  58  91  57  95  58 /   5  20  20  10  10
HEREFORD TX                58  93  59  95  59 /  10  20  20   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                61  88  59  86  62 /   5  20  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   61  87  58  90  60 /  10  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                62  89  61  87  63 /  10  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              63  91  63  89  64 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/09