Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

000
FXUS64 KAMA 132351
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
651 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Warm, windy, and dry conditions continue across the central and
southern Texas Panhandle early this afternoon. These conditions
are leading to critical fire weather conditions across this area.
The critical fire weather threat should continue through sunset
this evening. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible across
the northwest late this afternoon through this evening. A cold
front is forecast to move down across the Panhandles tonight
through tomorrow and cooler temperatures are expected in its wake.

As of early this afternoon, temperatures have warmed into the 70s
across most of the area with the exception being the northwestern
zones. Out ahead of the weak surface boundary, breezy to gusty
southwest winds are prevailing with dew points in the low 20s,
which is a tad bit higher than previously forecast. With mid level
saturation moving in across the area and mid 20s dew points
remaining across eastern NM, current thinking is that most
locations will stay above 20 for dew points today. Visible
satellite is showing an area of cumulus developing across eastern
NM up into the northwestern Panhandles. These cumulus clouds may
form into showers and thunderstorms later on today. For the fire
weather threat for the rest of today, see the Fire Weather section
below.

Latest forecast guidance continues to show a trough located across
the Intermountain West with a leading shortwave trough forecast to
move across portions of the area later on this evening. This
feature looks to time out right with an increase in mid level
moisture that may generate some precipitation, mainly for the
northwestern Panhandles. In fact, some guidance even gives this
area a few hundred joules of CAPE to work with, so a few lightning
strikes cannot be ruled out should any precipitation develop. Some
of the hi-res guidance even shows the cumulus field west of
Tucumcari may form into a few showers that would move across the
central Texas Panhandle. Current thinking is even if they do, not
much if any precipitation would reach the ground given the very
dry low levels to the surface. Rain showers/storms should end
before midnight tonight. Additionally, a cold front will begin to
move across the area tonight.

The main H500 center of low pressure will likely remain across the
Desert Southwest tomorrow with the center moving towards the
southern tip of Nevada. Weak waves embedded in the southwest flow
aloft may move across the northwestern Panhandles tomorrow which
could kick off additional light rounds of rain during the daytime
hours. The aforementioned cold front should be through most of the
area by the afternoon hours tomorrow which will cool down the
temperatures and usher in more cloud cover. Current NBM highs
have a 30 degree temperature gradient from northwest to the
southeast tomorrow. Thankfully, surface moisture should increase
across the region tomorrow and no fire weather conditions are
forecast for Thursday.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Looking at GOES-16 water vapor imagery, there is a mid to upper
level trough digging over the Intermountain West along and east of
the Sierras. An area of low pressure can be seen over ID as of
this writing. This area of low pressure is progged to move south
to the souther tip of NV where it will become a cutoff low
sometime tomorrow. Guidance has this low sticking around the
Desert Southwest for a few days leaving the combined Panhandles
under southwesterly flow, possibly tapping into source of Pacific
moisture. Because of this the FA is expected to see mostly cloudy
skies Fri through Sun. With potentially some light rain showers
Fri/Sat, favoring the southwestern half of the FA. Rain amounts if
they pan out do not look very high, maybe a few hundredths to
slightly above a tenth. Daytime highs Fri through Sun should
remain in the 50s to lower 60s. Fri will be the coolest, in the
upper 40s to the west and lower to mid 50s across central to
eastern portions of the combined Panhandles. These cooler
temperatures in the west will be thanks to the CAA behind the Thu
frontal passage. The cloud cover and possible rain will
potentially keep highs across much of the area, mainly western
Panhandles, from warming much higher than 60 over the weekend.

Have stayed with NBM values for the extended forecast, which give
50 to 60 PoPs for the southwestern third of the combined
Panhandles on Fri, and 20 to 30 PoPs for Sat. In the northwestern
quarter of the combined Panhandles, overnight temperatures going
into Sat morning could be cold enough to have some snow or
rain/snow mix. Winter weather impacts are looking to stay in the
higher terrain well west of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle at
this time.

Guidance does not agree on when exactly the aforementioned mid to
upper low will finally eject out of the Desert Southwest next
week, but the Panhandles may potentially start to see a solid
warming well into the 60s to potentially lower 70s by Tue
afternoon.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to start the 00Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Southwest winds currently SW of 15-20 kts with higher
gusts at times will diminish to around 5-15 kts around 04-07Z.
Winds will then shift to northerly behind the cold front between
06Z and 12Z through all sites with northerly winds at 5-15 kts.
Vsbys behind the front should decrease to MVFR levels and remain
so throughout the remainder of the TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are currently ongoing across
portions of the southern Texas Panhandle. Sustained winds have
mainly been in the 15 to 25 mph range and gusts have been in the
40 to 45 mph range. Relative humidity values have been a bit
higher than previously forecast given dew points remaining above
20 thus far. In any case, these conditions are still lead to
critical fire weather conditions with RFTI values in the 3 to 5
range. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for most of the
Panhandles through 8 PM this evening.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                40  64  37  52 /  10   0   0  50
Beaver OK                  40  62  36  57 /  10   0   0  10
Boise City OK              36  48  31  47 /  30  40  30  50
Borger TX                  41  65  39  57 /  10   0   0  40
Boys Ranch TX              37  62  36  53 /  10   0  10  50
Canyon TX                  39  66  36  52 /  10   0  10  50
Clarendon TX               44  70  40  55 /   0   0   0  50
Dalhart TX                 33  53  32  48 /  10  10  20  50
Guymon OK                  38  56  34  53 /  20  20  10  20
Hereford TX                38  67  35  52 /  10   0  10  60
Lipscomb TX                41  66  37  57 /  10   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   40  65  37  54 /  10   0   0  30
Shamrock TX                44  71  40  58 /   0   0   0  30
Wellington TX              45  73  42  58 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...29


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.