Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 211737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1237 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.Aviation... /For the 18z TAFs/
VFR conditions will prevail through at least early afternoon, and
probably through early tonight. The only exception may be if a
thunderstorm directly impacts a terminal. We have narrowed down a 4-
5 hour window of the most likely time for this to happen and used
VCTS, although the convection should be somewhat scattered in nature
so we did not want to prevail thunder just yet. We will amend as
location and timing becomes more certain based on satellite and ob
trends this afternoon. Southerly low level advection of moisture
will continue tonight and may lead to an MVFR or IFR ceiling,
especially at KAMA. KGUY may also experience this. KDHT could too
but is the least likely of the three.



.Prev Discussion... /Issued 445 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

Low clouds and patchy fog this morning across the northeastern half
of the Panhandles should lift by mid morning. Deepening surface
trough will sharpen into a dryline today across the eastern plains of
New Mexico and allow for increasing southeast to southerly winds of
15 to 25 mph with higher gusts across the forecast area. Low level
moisture will be on the increase today with 1500 to 2500 J/KG CAPE
and 0-6 km bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots suggesting organized
multicellular or possibly supercellular storm modes after 21Z today.
Main threats later today and tonight will be large hail and damaging
winds. Cannot completely rule out an isolated tornado or two
early...mainly before sunset...however better chances appear to be
Sunday afternoon and evening. Similar setup on Sunday with the
dryline becoming better organized and remaining across the eastern
plains of New Mexico or near the Texas and New Mexico state line. 0-6
km bulk shear in excess of 40 knots. Tornado threat increases Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening mainly across the eastern half of the
forecast area...along with a continued large hail and damaging wind
threat...with supercells being the storm mode. Convection should
track east out of the Panhandles between 06Z and 12Z Monday...with a
cold front pushing south into the Panhandles between 06Z and 12Z

Cold front forecast to become stationary over the forecast area
Monday with additional convection developing Monday afternoon into
Monday evening across the eastern portions of the Panhandles. Dryline
moves east into the forecast area Monday and Tuesday. Convection
possible mainly early Tuesday over the eastern Panhandles. Front to
lift north as a warm front into southwest Kansas Tuesday and
Wednesday before reinforcing surge of cooler air finally allows the
front to push south into the forecast area once again late next week.
Warmer and drier conditions expected after Tuesday and then only
slightly cooler conditions expected by next Thursday and Friday
following the passage of the cold front.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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