Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 250440
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1040 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 00Z THURSDAY AS MAINLY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PREVAIL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS 5 KNOTS
OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TO
17Z WEDNESDAY AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
THREE TAF SITES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES AROUND 00Z TO 02Z
THURSDAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE AMARILLO TAF SITES AROUND 03Z TO 05Z
THURSDAY. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL PUSH SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SOME INCREASING MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES. THE AMARILLO TAF SITE COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
06Z AND 10Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES. CONFIDENCE OF FLURRIES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THIS TAF
FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TO 02Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AFTER 15Z TO 17Z WEDNESDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/

A COMPACT BUT INTENSE MID LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER ARIZONA. A 130 KT JET IS NOSING
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE.
FORCING/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND ENHANCED RADAR ECHOES OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE IS AMBLE SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR TO NEGATE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO BRIEFLY
SATURATE PROFILES BENEATH THE COLD CORE OF THE EJECTING LOW TONIGHT
AND JUST AS FORCING/ASCENT WANES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06-10Z. A FEW
MODELS ADDITIONALLY GENERATE LIGHT QPF SIGNALS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF INTERMITTENT FLURRIES. IN
ADDITION...TODAY/S SNOW MELT MAY HELP PROMOTE PATCHY FOG...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS MAY HELP MINIMIZE THAT THREAT.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TOMORROW...BUT THE NEXT
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF
THE PASSING LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MARK THE ONSET OF A
COLDER AND MORE MOIST WEATHER PATTERN.

LINDLEY

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE DURING THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES BRING SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.

FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY TRACK
EAST ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A STRONG
ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL DISLODGE VERY COLD AIR
UPSTREAM LEADING TO MAX TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO BORDER.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE
20S...EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL SNOW. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS CAN GENERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING THE ISSUANCE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESIDE UNDER SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING
SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE NONE OF THESE IMPULSES SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL...OVERRIDING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
RAISES CONCERNS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS
TOO LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06





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