Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 272020
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
320 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. VERY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
OF 3000-4500 J/KG ARE PRESENT...AND A MODERATE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR...THOUGH
MAINLY OF THE DIRECTIONAL VARIETY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY
THREATS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. STORMS WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON TODAY`S SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEE MESOSCALE UPDATE
IN PREVIOUS AFD.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND...AND
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AHEAD OF IT IN GENERALLY
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. A BIT DIFFICULT
TO PICK OUT THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE MAIN FORCING
WILL BE LIKELY TIED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO BE RESOLVED
CLEARLY...AND AS SUCH...DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ONE POSSIBILITY ARE THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AGAIN AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THAT AREA WILL BE IN THE PANHANDLES OR
FURTHER EAST OVER OKLAHOMA. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60S ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY`S PLACEMENT...AS WELL AS FORECASTED SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS COULD BE LIMITED THOUGH
BY LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MOST CLEAR SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
PANHANDLES. ALSO APPEARS A SURFACE FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WE SEE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY SUNDAY....UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLES TO START
THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA FAIRLY DRY...THOUGH ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS UPSTREAM COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME.  THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE STARTS PUSHING EAST AND BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                60  75  58  76  56 /  40  60  40  20  50
BEAVER OK                  62  79  61  78  56 /  50  60  50  40  50
BOISE CITY OK              58  77  55  74  52 /  30  30  30  20  50
BORGER TX                  63  78  61  78  57 /  30  50  40  30  50
BOYS RANCH TX              61  77  59  78  56 /  30  60  40  20  50
CANYON TX                  60  75  58  77  57 /  40  60  40  20  50
CLARENDON TX               61  77  60  78  58 /  50  60  50  30  70
DALHART TX                 59  77  57  76  54 /  30  50  30  20  50
GUYMON OK                  61  79  59  77  54 /  40  40  40  30  50
HEREFORD TX                59  77  58  78  56 /  30  60  40  20  50
LIPSCOMB TX                63  77  62  77  57 /  50  60  50  40  50
PAMPA TX                   60  74  59  76  56 /  40  60  50  30  50
SHAMROCK TX                62  77  61  77  59 /  40  60  60  40  70
WELLINGTON TX              65  78  62  79  61 /  50  60  60  40  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/18





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