Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 242330
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
630 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.AVIATION...
For 00z TAFs... Somewhat complicated forecast with uncertainty in
how far south the surface trough will advance. Right now it looks
like the surface trough will extend well into KAMA with north-
northeasterly winds by 06z as convection increases across OK
Panhandle and northern TX Panhandle this evening. Decided to
include winds shift in KAMA TAF based on current Obs and model
guidance. Otherwise... VFR should persist except for some local
MVFR where isolated -tsra near KGUY and KDHT. Convection should be
moving out of these areas by early morning.

Ward

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper level ridge will continue to weaken and shift back towards
the west this evening. This will help to transition the zonal flow
over the Panhandles to northwest flow which is anticipated to
persist for the remainder of the week. This northwest flow aloft will
allow several shortwave troughs to traverse the Panhandles keeping a
chance for precip during each period of the forecast. There will
likely be brief windows of reduced convective activity based on the
exact timing of the shortwave passage over the next seven days.

Looking closer at the this evening, convection has already developed
across SE Colorado/NE New Mexico and is anticipated to move to the
SE with time along a stationary boundary stretched across the
extreme northern portion of the Oklahoma Panhandle into S Kansas/SE
Colorado. As such the forecast shows a ramping up of precip chances
across the northern and northwestern portion of the CWA before
encompassing the majority of the area after midnight. Severe weather
potential looks fairly isolated with the best chances for a strong
to marginally severe storm focused across the northwestern CWA closer
to the stationary front. Mixed Layer CAPE values across the
Panhandles range between 500-1000 J/kg with deep layer shear around
20kt.

A more pronounced shortwave is anticipated to move through the
Panhandles on Monday. This will allow another round of convection to
develop across the Panhandles along residual outflow boundaries.
following shortwaves will help to sustain storms through the
overnight Monday and into the early morning hours Tuesday. A relative
lull in activity is expected late Tuesday morning before picking up
once again after the noon hour. By Tuesday evening, another shortwave
trough will dive south-southeastward along the shared Texas/Oklahoma
and New Mexico state lines. This will help to focus our higher
chances for precip across the western zones with a few storms moving
into the eastern Panhandles. The chances transition to the entire
area by Wednesday daytime as an upper trough moves across Nebraska
and Kansas. Instability and deep layer shear will continue to be
limited throughout this timeframe to keep the possibility of an
isolated strong to marginally severe storm possible however,
widespread organized severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Thursday through Saturday will see northwest flow aloft persisting.
Have kept chances in the extended periods in the 20% to 30% range
given the uncertainty on exactly when the shortwaves will move
through this period.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/18



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