Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 231703
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1203 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016
18Z Issuance...VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period.
Models are not too keen on thunderstorms at the TAF sites, so have
left out any mention. Think they should remain confined southeast of
sites. Southwest winds at KDHT and KGUY should calm a bit after 02Z
but winds at KAMA will remain gusty. Not expecting low clouds to be a
factor tomorrow morning at KAMA.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 635 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/
Narrow band of low stratus did form and is producing IFR Cigs at AMA.
This will not likely last more than 1-2 hours. Conditions do not
appear as favorable for stratus tomorrow morning. Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions will dominate once these clouds dissipate after
sunrise. One exception will be in/near high based ISOLD TSTMS this
aftn and evening. These are not shown in TAFS given low coverage and
chc of impact at terminals. AMA and areas south and east will have
best chance for TSTM impacts after 3 pm.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/
Low level Gulf moisture was advecting into the Panhandles on
southeast to southerly winds. Surface dew points climbing well into
the 60s on the caprock with near 70 dew points off the caprock. Upper
trough tracking east towards the forecast area from the Great Basin
region and the southwestern states will move across the Four Corners
region by late today. The upper trough will remain over the central
and southern Rockies Wednesday. Surface trough across eastern
Colorado and eastern New Mexico will move to near the Texas and New
Mexico state line and possibly the extreme northwestern sections of
the Panhandles by late today. Isolated to scattered convection may
develop across the southeastern half of the forecast area by this
afternoon and then over much of the forecast area tonight.
A cold front will track southeast out of western Kansas and
southeastern Colorado by late tonight and then gradually southeast
into the Oklahoma and the northwest Texas Panhandle by Wednesday
afternoon or early Wednesday evening. The cold front is expected to
push across the remainder of the forecast area Wednesday night and
early Thursday morning. Convection chances will increase Wednesday
and Wednesday night through late this week with some storms possible
strong to severe. In addition...storms will be capable of producing
locally very heavy rainfall which will result in flooding or flash
flooding concerns. The frontal boundary may stall near the Red River
valley and just south of the forecast area late this week. Continued
perturbations in the southwesterly and zonal upper flow impacting
the forecast area through the weekend and into early next week will
allow for continued chances for convection.