Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 141102
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
602 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 12Z
Sunday. Southwesterly winds 5 to 15 knots will increase to around
15 to 25 knots with gusts near 30 knots after 14Z to 16Z today.
Winds will shift to the north at the Guymon and Dalhart TAF sites
around 22Z today to 00Z Sunday and increase to around 20 to 30
knots with gusts near 35 knots. Winds will shift to the north and
increase to around 20 to 30 knots with gusts near 35 knots at the
Amarillo TAF site around 00Z to 02Z Sunday. Winds are expected to
diminish to around 10 to 20 knots after 08Z Sunday at all three
TAF sites.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 434 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Overall a quiet forecast package outside of the frontal passage
and precipitation chances today/tonight. Northwestern parts of the
forecast area are going to be close to freezing temperatures but
should stay above freezing.

In the upper levels, a trough will pass through central parts of
CONUS today. An associated cold front will begin to pass through the
forecast area late this afternoon/early evening. Wind speeds will
be on the breezy side behind the front with speeds around 25 mph
and gusts around 45 mph as a strong pressure gradient sets up this
afternoon. Precipitation chances will linger around all day and
tonight for mostly eastern and southeastern portions of the
forecast area. There isn`t a lot of instability around until later
this afternoon ahead of the cold front, so thunderstorm chances
will be limited until later today, but really the higher amounts
of instability are across southeastern parts of the forecast area.
Thunderstorm chances will be best to the southeast, but severe
weather should be limited today/tonight. There could certainly be
some strong storms but widespread severe weather doesn`t look
likely.

Temperatures behind the front will get down into the low to mid
30s for a good portion of the forecast area Saturday night.
Northwestern parts of the forecast area will be close to freezing
but currently do not have any freezing temps in the forecast.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/24



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