Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 220518

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1218 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

MVFR to IFR ceiling to prevail during the overnight hours at all
three terminals. During the late morning hours Saturday, we will
see ceiling starting to improve before all terminal return to VFR
by 20Z at the latest. VFR conditions should then prevail through
the remainder of the 06Z TAF forecast period while winds become


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 412 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

Post-frontal clouds have held temperatures to around 50 in north
and northeast sections of the forecast area, while clearing has
allowed the mid-70s to be reached in the southwest.  Expecting
continued northeast and north winds tonight, with clouds
redeveloping and all sections becoming cloudy.

As mid-level shortwave trof lingers near northern sections, fairly
deep north flow on its back side will promote continued north
surface winds on Saturday, with clouds decreasing in the
afternoon.  Saturday high temperatures expected to be about 15
degrees Fahrenheit below normal.  Saturday night lows will flirt
with freezing owing to a clear sky and light winds following the
cool day.  Mid-level ridge overhead on Sunday allows temperatures
to rise to near normal.

Zonal flow Monday induces development of lee trof, with southwest
winds helping temperatures rise well into the 80s, about 15
degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

From Tuesday and beyond, models and ensemble members vary
regarding timing and strength of mid-level features.  General
expected evolution is for digging trof, with strengthening flow
for Panhandles.  Will follow suggestion of blended guidance, with
best chances for precipitation remaining across northern sections,
but have undercut blended pop values.  03


North winds will continue tonight and Saturday. Light winds will
prevail Saturday night. Southwest and south winds will resume Sunday,
with elevated fire weather conditions possible across the western
one-third of the Texas Panhandle as relative humidity falls below
20 percent. Southwest winds increase on Monday with elevated fire
weather conditions likely across the western three-fourths of the
Panhandles. Elevated fire weather conditions may continue Tuesday
and Wednesday across the southwest half of the Texas Panhandle. 03


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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