Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 071046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE PANHANDLES AND ROTATE THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH KGUY
AND GET CLOSE TO KDHT BEFORE THE END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING AS A FEW
CLOUDS FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TREND OF HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY AS THINK ALL CONVECTION WILL BE OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT WILL AGAIN PLAGUE THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS SOME LOCATIONS COULD
EASILY APPROACH 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND
DRY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S AREA WIDE.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A BIG CHANGE IS ON THE HORIZON AS A JULY
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. YES YOU READ THAT
CORRECTLY...A JULY COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION FIRING BEHIND IT
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE IN DEFINITE DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE THERE WILL
BE...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER DUE TO THE
MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S SEEM
REASONABLE. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT WARM UP BUT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STILL THINK HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IN THE LOWER 90S.

A SOMEWHAT BRIEF DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE AREA. THINK THE
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF GETTING INTO THE PANHANDLES UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING
THE 90S.

FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT
EXACTLY HAPPENS THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL STILL BE CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION COMING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. DEFINITELY A LOT GOING ON DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH MANY PLAYERS AT HAND. WITH THAT SAID...NOT AS
CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES BUT FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP/MAKE IT INTO THE PANHANDLES AT LEAST
ONE EVENING/NIGHT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR MOSTLY THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES.
HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOW TO MID 90S
EXPECTED.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/20






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