Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221912

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
212 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

See previously issued Mesoscale Discussion below for details on
today`s severe weather threat. We will provide updates throughout the
afternoon based on trends in the observations and short term

Challenges for this forecast package will be how far east dryline
mixes each day through mid week and severe potential ahead of it.
Upstream soundings across Central and southern Texas are quite deep
with moisture and without significant mean southwesterly flow it may
be difficult for the dryline to mix very far east. Model guidance
has consistently struggled with this all season. Furthermore, and
with this particular model bias aside, they have shifted slowly west
with low-level theta-e ridging/dryline over the last couple of days.
We have shifted thunderstorm chances westward accordingly and are
currently on the western edge of guidance with this forecast cycle.

Deep layer shear values taken at face value are not very impressive,
generally less than 25 knots, but models are also veered in low
levels behind the sharpening dryline they depict too far east.
Backed winds at the low levels east of the dryline yield at least 40
knots of effective bulk shear. Abundant low level moisture should
contribute to a strongly unstable air mass ahead of the dryline
during the afternoon with MLCAPE at least 2,500 J/KG and probably
higher. All modes of severe are possible. Heavy rain should still be
a threat.

Not much change was made to the forecast beyond Tuesday. Main upper
trough will approach Thursday and have added thunder to the far
eastern Panhandles. We may very well see a westward trend with low
level moisture/dryline again on Thursday putting more of the area at
risk, especially if the trough deepens/slows more than currently
depicted in the model guidance.



Mesoscale Update... /Issued 1213 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/
..Severe weather expected today...

* Synoptic Overview: This morning an upper-level low pressure system
  was spinning over southern Alberta and western Montana, with a
  pronounced ridge of high pressure aloft extending from Texas
  toward the Great Lakes. The Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles remain
  beneath southwesterly flow aloft between these features and just on
  the western periphery of the ridge. A northern stream jet maximum
  extends from Utah to the Dakotas, while the southern stream jet
  maximum is confined to northern Mexico and South Texas. The
  Panhandles remain under an area of diffluence between the jets, but
  300mb winds will be at a relative minimum across this region today.
  Water vapor imagery showed the remains of yesterday`s convection
  being swept eastward by that shortwave and hints of a few other
  shortwaves rounding the upper low and traversing the Rockies. The
  overall upper-level support will be somewhat limited today due to
  the lack of direct influence from an upper-level jet and the fact
  that passing shortwaves are not expected to be very deep or extend
  very far southeast into our area. At the surface a surface low will
  deepen over eastern Colorado, and a dryline will tighten up
  extending to its south through the length of West Texas.
  Thunderstorms (some of which will be severe) are expected to
  develop along much of the dryline this afternoon and evening.

* Mesoscale: With the deepening surface low over Colorado, we expect
  the dryline to hang back across far western portions of the Texas
  and Oklahoma Panhandles - likely extending from near Boise City to
  Hereford by the late afternoon. In response to the developing
  surface low and dryline, expect low-level winds to back more from
  the southeast as the afternoon progresses. This will aid in low-
  level convergence near the dryline and keep low to mid 60s
  dewpoints in place across most of the Panhandles. Low and mid-level
  clouds are breaking up across the area, with temperatures quickly
  climbing into the 80s. Model guidance suggests that a combination
  of mid-80s temps and low-to-mid 60s dewpoints will lead to a narrow
  corridor of MLCAPE values approaching 3000-4000 J/kg near and just
  east of the dryline. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km
  also expected east of the dryline. Any thunderstorms developing
  near this area will have the chance to rapidly intensify. Deep
  layer shear will be on the marginal side (only around 30-35 kts of
  0-6km shear) during the afternoon and evening but will be
  perpendicular to the dryline, suggesting a weakly organized storm
  mode with a few supercells possible. Increasing low-level wind
  shear by late evening does indicate at least some threat for
  isolated tornadoes, though lack of upper-level support means these
  should be short lived. Storm motion should be to the northeast at
  around 25 kts, though right-moving supercells would have a slower
  ENE trajectory similar to yesterday`s storms.

* Threats: With such a high potential for instability, large hail to
  the size of baseballs and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
  hazards. Increasing low-level wind shear near sunset will also
  allow for a brief window when isolated tornadoes will be possible.
  Slow storm motions for the strongest storms and recent rainfall
  over portions of the threat area mean that localized flooding and
  flash flooding will be possible as well.

* Timing & Location: Though there is some slight uncertainty on just
  how far east the dryline will develop this afternoon, confidence is
  fairly high that it will set up between the TX/NM state line and an
  Amarillo-to-Guymon line. The greatest threat for severe weather
  will be for central portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
  Timing for storm initiation is expected to be around 2 to 4 pm this
  afternoon, with storm severity and coverage decreasing by midnight.



.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                65  87  60  89  57 /  60  30  20  20  20
Beaver OK                  67  89  63  91  59 /  50  30  40  20  20
Boise City OK              58  85  53  86  52 /  30  10  10  10   5
Borger TX                  68  89  63  91  60 /  60  30  30  20  20
Boys Ranch TX              63  89  58  91  56 /  50  20  20  20  10
Canyon TX                  64  88  60  90  56 /  60  30  20  20  20
Clarendon TX               66  87  64  90  59 /  60  40  40  20  30
Dalhart TX                 59  87  53  88  52 /  40  10  10  10   5
Guymon OK                  64  87  58  90  55 /  60  20  20  10  10
Hereford TX                64  89  57  90  56 /  50  20  20  20  10
Lipscomb TX                67  87  65  90  61 /  40  40  40  20  20
Pampa TX                   67  86  63  89  59 /  60  30  40  20  30
Shamrock TX                67  85  66  89  61 /  40  40  40  40  40
Wellington TX              68  87  66  90  62 /  40  40  40  40  40


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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