Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 190957
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
457 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND ATMOSPERHIC INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE... AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC TROF ACTING AS A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS ARE PLAUSIBLE FOR THIS EXPECTED SCENARIO. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING
ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...SFC TROF IN ERN NM MAY ONCE AGAIN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURG THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO WRN HALF OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS.
SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS AREA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN THE GRIDS. THE SAME
SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AS WELL EXCEPT SLGT CHC
POPS HAVE BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE FAR WRN AND NWRN ZONES FOR LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY THRU NEXT FRIDAY WILL FEATURE WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF THE
LATTER HALF OF JULY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND REMAIN AROUND THE
VICINITY FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS TRANSLATES TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. ONE CAVEAT TO
ALL THIS IS THAT THE ECMWF IS TRENDING A BIT FARTHER W WITH ITS AXIS
COMPARED TO THE GFS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NRN
ZONES LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SOME PSBLTY OF TSTMS ALONG
IT. KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FCST PCKG FROM TUE ONWARD AT THIS TIME DUE
TO SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE POTENTIAL WEAK BOUNDARY LATE
TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG IT. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING POPS IF
MODEL TRENDS DICTATE.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                89  67  95  70  97 /  20  30  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  92  67  99  70  99 /  10  30  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              92  65  96  66  96 /  30  40  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  93  70  98  73  99 /  10  30  10  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              91  66  97  68  97 /  20  30  20  20  10
CANYON TX                  89  67  95  69  97 /  20  30  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               90  68  96  72  97 /  10  30  10  10   5
DALHART TX                 93  64  97  66  97 /  30  40  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  94  67  99  70 100 /  20  40  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                89  66  95  68  96 /  20  30  20  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                90  68  96  71  97 /  10  30  10  10   5
PAMPA TX                   90  67  96  70  97 /  10  30  10  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                90  69  96  72  97 /  10  30  10  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              90  70  97  74  98 /   5  30  10  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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