Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 162247 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
547 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Winds will prevail from the northwest at DHT and GUY overnight
and they will slowly increase. Southwest winds at AMA will become
northwest after midnight and then they will increase as well.
Winds will increase even more behind a cold front at all sites
after sunrise. Winds will then become lighter and will turn more
easterly at DHT and GUY at the end of this forecast. Skies are
expected to remain VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 521 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017/

A dry cold front will move across the OK and TX Panhandles later
tonight and Friday morning with cooler temperatures in store
Friday afternoon.

An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across the srn high plains this weekend. This will result in
a continuation of the dry weather and well above normal
temperatures. Highs on Sunday will likely reach into the upper 80s
and lower 90s, similar to this afternoon`s record setting max
values. Another dry cold front is then slated to move across the
area late Sunday night into Monday morning, with cooler temperatures
Monday and Tuesday.

The upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to slide east
of the region later Tuesday into Wednesday morning as an upper
level storm system approaches from the western states. Just enough
moisture may be in place later Wednesday to warrant a slight chc
for showers and tstms across cntrl and ern parts of the fcst area.
Models prog weak instability, small amounts of MUCAPE, and a
general lack of deep moisture on that day, all of which will
likely be inhibiting factors for severe tstm development. This
will be something to monitor during the coming days leading up to
next Wednesday. As the storm system heads towards the southern
Rockies Wednesday night, slight chc to chc pops were utilized
across the fcst area, with highest values ern zones and lowest in
the wrn sections. Slgt chc pops for rain showers were included for
next Thursday due to wraparound moisture as the storm system
continues tracking northeast into the central plains states.


Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Friday
afternoon across the western half of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles due to 20 foot northeast winds of 15 to 20 mph with
some higher gusts along with forecast minimum relative humidity
values near 20 percent.

Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop Sunday
afternoon across the northwest half of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles due to breezy southwest winds and low relative humidity
values. Elevated fire weather conditions will likely develop
Sunday afternoon across the southeast half of the area.

Elevated fire weather conditions will also be possible across
western parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles on Wednesday
afternoon due to breezy south winds and low relative humidity



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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