Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 281753
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS...IFR CEILINGS AT KAMA AND KDHT WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY. KGUY WILL REMAIN MVFR UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY FOG LATER TONIGHT AT ALL
SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIFR CONDITIONS SEEMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AND AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF VLIFR LATE
TONIGHT. MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
AT KGUY WHERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT IS LESS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING.  FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS.
WITH ECHOES CONTINUING AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPMENT OF WARM LAYER ALOFT COMMENCES...
CAUSING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE.
LIGHT FREEZING OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE LIKELY...BUT HAVE ALSO CALLED FOR POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SLEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  FORTUNATELY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE
TO LACK OF STRONG UPWARD MOTIONS.  FOR NOW...LOW POPS AND LOW QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.  TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS DRY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS
AHEAD OF TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.  STRONGLY BAROCLINIC FRONTAL
ZONE MAY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW SNOW POPS IN MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THURSDAY AND BEYOND EXPECTED TO
BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

17/02




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