000
FXUS64 KAMA 150849
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
RIDGE STRUGGLES TO BUILD BACK AS TROUGHS CONTINUE TO RIDE THE RIDGE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A FEW DIFFERENT CHANCES FOR STORMS TODAY AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OVER THE REGION. FIRST...SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL LIKE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES REDEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. HAVE SOME DOUBTS ON THIS
GIVEN THE DISSIPATING TREND. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES SHOW THE TROUGH
EITHER STALLING OR BRIEFLY RETROGRADING THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO REDEVELOPMENT. THE SECOND CHANCE FOR STORMS COMES THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM/CO COULD
DRIFT INTO THE FAR NW TX AND W OK PANHANDLES. THIS IS A SMALL CHANCE
AT BEST GIVEN THE WEAK MEAN FLOW. SUSPECT IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...IT
WILL BE A VERY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM CDT.
HOWEVER...IF IT OCCURS IT COULD ALSO POSE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL AND WINDS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOK TO BE TONIGHT...IN
THE FORM OF AN MCS AT THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS...THE GFS IS SHOWING THIS LLJ DEVELOPING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
WHICH COULD MEAN THE MCS WOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE PANHANDLES AS
OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS IT MOSTLY IN KS...JUST GRAZING THE
OK PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE STILL ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...AND NOCTURNAL LLJ...EXPECT THE PRIMARY HAZARD TO BE HEAVY
RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. HOWEVER...WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK DURING THE DAY.
THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT AND CAPE VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THERE
LACKS ANY LARGE SCALE FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AT LEAST
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING EXPECT WIDE SPREAD SUBSIDENCE. THUS...THINK THE ONLY CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE IF THERE ARE ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE LATE
NIGHT COLD FRONT ARRIVAL BRINGS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MUCH LIKE TODAY...THE PRIMARY HAZARD
REMAINS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND IT APPEARS THAT IF THERE IS ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THROUGH THIS PERIOD THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY WILL THE RIDGE BUILD BACK AND WILL THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM THAT BE ENOUGH TO QUASH ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. GFS SHOWS THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE BY TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOESN/T COME
CLOSE TO SHOWING THIS ESTABLISHED AT THIS POINT. THUS...HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COULD SEE A FEW MORE CHANCES OF STORMS
WITH THE CONTINUED PARADE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS NOT VERY
HIGH AS THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
THE EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LATE WEEK
PACIFIC NW LOW. HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

JOHNSON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINS AND GREEN UP...COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
NEAR OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT WILL PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

JOHNSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                91  66  93  67  88 /  10  10  20  30  20
BEAVER OK                  93  67  96  68  89 /  20  40  20  50  10
BOISE CITY OK              94  64  92  61  86 /  20  30  20  30  20
BORGER TX                  93  70  96  68  89 /  10  20  20  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              95  67  97  68  91 /   5  20  20  30  20
CANYON TX                  92  65  93  67  89 /   5  10  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               90  67  93  70  89 /  20  10  20  30  20
DALHART TX                 94  64  95  63  86 /  20  20  20  30  20
GUYMON OK                  93  66  91  65  87 /  20  30  20  40  10
HEREFORD TX                91  64  92  67  89 /   5  10  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                90  66  93  69  86 /  20  30  20  50  10
PAMPA TX                   88  66  93  66  87 /  20  20  20  40  20
SHAMROCK TX                89  66  94  70  89 /  20  10  20  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              90  67  96  72  93 /  20  10  20  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/16