Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 270334 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1034 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING HAVE MANAGED ONLY TO CLIP THE FAR
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.  BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS
AND EXPECTED FLOW ALOFT...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM NORTHERN
TERMINALS.  SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED
...WITH INCREASE IN SPEEDS AND GUSTS FORECAST TO COMMENCE AROUND 15Z
MONDAY.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  NO CLOUDS
BELOW 8000 FEET BASES OF CUMULUS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES
NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH NO THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF AREA
AROUND 02Z MONDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSES THIS AREA.  EXPECT
THAT SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...
BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN NORTH.  THUS...
THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED IN KDHT AND KGUY TAFS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z
MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 40 KT.  OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.  SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 KT OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
AROUND 15Z MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ONCE AGAIN FORMED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE SHOULD DRIFT EAST REACHING THE NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND LINGER INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE AREA SO ORGANIZED STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT BRIEF STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SIMILAR
TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED...BRIEF AND MARGINAL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE THIS COMING WEEK. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE WILL FLATTENED AND RETROGRADE. A SHARPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE OFF OF THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING WAVE
AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
MOIST NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THIS WEAKENING AND STALLING
COLD FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE. VEERING AND STRENGTHENING MEAN FLOW
SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR DIURNAL OROGRAPHIC
CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EDGE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST
NUMEROUS ALONG AND BEHIND STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE DEEP MOIST
POOLING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN THIS PATTERN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING WOULD BE A CONCERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEP
MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. SOME
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST THOUGH
AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT COMPLETELY IN AGREEMENT ON THE
GEOMETRY OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/14




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.