Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS64 KAMA 271751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1251 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017


For the 18Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period.
However, there are a few noteworthy items for this period. There
is a chance for low level wind shear this evening into Wednesday
morning. Models are hinting at a 50-55 knot jet around 1000 feet.
This is likely the most impactful item for this TAF period. That
being said, it will be the breezy throughout the period, as well
as the chance for some high clouds later today. There is an off
chance for showers/thunderstorms later today, but chances were so
small decided to leave this out of the TAF for now. KDHT and KGUY
would have the better chance for this to come to fruition. Will
send an amendment if necessary. Confidence was high enough to
leave this mention of showers/thunderstorms out of the TAF for



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 628 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

For 12z TAFs... VFR conditions should prevail this period with
departing high clouds this morning. A few thunderstorms could try
to push into the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle
from the west late this afternoon and this evening, but
confidence is not high enough to include in TAFs at this time.
Winds will be increasing out of the southwest this afternoon with
15 to 20 knots common across the Panhandles. These winds are
expected to continue through the night as a strong low level jet
develops. Will also need to watch for low level wind shear if
surface winds decrease more than expected overnight.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 419 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

Northwest flow will transition to westerly flow this evening as an
upper level trough suppresses the four corners high pressure
system. This westerly downslope flow will continue for the next
few days, allowing for very warm to hot temperatures through
Thursday. As the upper level trough axis crosses the Panhandles on
Thursday evening, a surface cold front will accompany this
trough, bringing temperatures back into the 80s on Friday. This
will be short lived as west to northwest flow will return to the
area over the weekend, as the four corners high rebuilds,
returning hot weather to the Panhandles.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for the northwest OK/TX
Panhandle today. Storms have the potential to be severe as a
shortwave trough will move across the area. Central and eastern
Panhandles will have a stronger cap in place at 700H that will
inhibit storms to continue. Therefore have only kept the pops in
the forecast for the northwest areas. With drier westerly flow in
place the chances for thunderstorms will be minimal until Thursday
evening, when a slight chance of thunderstorms returns to the far
northeastern Panhandles. Thunderstorms will return under
northwest flow over the weekend and into early next week.


For 06z TAFs... Isolated thunderstorms have developed in Hartley
County, southwest of KDHT. Right now it appears KDHT will not be
impacted but will be monitoring closely over next hour or so.
Storm motion suggest these might approach KAMA in a few hours
which could affect local winds and cigs/vsbys. Will be monitoring
for possible amendments. Overall, except for any local reductions
in cigs/vsbys due to these thunderstorms, VFR conditions should
prevail. Winds will be southerly at around 10 knots switching to
southwesterly at 15-25 knots Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms may
approach our western zones again Tuesday evening, but confidence
not high enough to include in TAFs at this time.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



99/99 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.