Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 050329 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1029 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.
CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS BELOW 10 KNOTS. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WINDS COULD GET UP BETWEEN 10
AND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. KAMA AND KDHT LOOK TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO INCLUDED
MENTION IN TAFS. KGUY SHOULD SEE LESS INTENSE GUSTS AND IF THEY
OCCUR WILL BE FOR A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME...SO DECIDED NOT TO
INCLUDE IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LORENZEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 07 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WIND DIRECTION COULD
BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
AND STAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN
15 KNOTS SO HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

LORENZEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LIGHT WINDS...WARMER TEMPS...AND CLEAR BLUE SKIES MARK THE ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. EXPECT WARMING TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. LOOKS LIKE THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO SEE TRUE RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

NF

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ATTENTION IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING THE AVAILABILITY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE...AND SUBSEQUENT STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE BIAS IN THE GFS TOWARD A
DRIER LOWER ATMOSPHERE...LARGELY LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR MOISTURE
RELATED FIELDS. THAT SAID...THE ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST DRYLINE POSITION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE DYNAMIC PUSH TO THE
DRYLINE ON SATURDAY AS WELL. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY REACH THE PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY EVENING...HELPING TO KEEP
MOIST AIR LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. VALUES OF
MLCAPE NEAR 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. 100KT JET EDGING INTO THE
PANHANDLES WILL PRODUCE 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-60 KTS ACROSS THE AREA ON
BOTH DAYS. THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES SUNDAY EVENING THANKS TO INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FINALLY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW FILLS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
/THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND IT/. IN ITS
WAKE...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

NF

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                49  84  51  85  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
BEAVER OK                  49  85  53  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              46  83  48  83  52 /   0   0   0  10   5
BORGER TX                  50  85  55  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              47  87  53  86  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
CANYON TX                  46  85  51  85  56 /   0   0   0   5  10
CLARENDON TX               51  82  51  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 46  85  48  85  53 /   0   0   0  10   5
GUYMON OK                  49  85  53  87  56 /   0   0   0   5   5
HEREFORD TX                47  85  52  86  57 /   0   0   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                50  83  54  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   50  81  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                51  82  53  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              51  84  54  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/11



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