Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 271100
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
600 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z Issuance...VFR conditions expected to persist through the period
for all sites. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the area today,
but confidence of timing if one will be at a site was too low to put
into taf. Winds are expected to remain aob 10kts through the period
and swing from southerly to easterly around midday and then back to
southerly after 05Z.

Beat

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A surface low over northeast New Mexico with a stationary frontal
boundary extending from the surface low eastward into northwest
Oklahoma is expected to lift north and east as a warm front today. An
upper high over the Great Basin Region will allow for a northerly to
northeasterly upper flow across the Panhandles today through
Thursday. The upper flow should transition to more northwesterly by
Thursday night or Friday as the upper high begins to build back
towards the Four Corners Region by this weekend. The frontal boundary
is expected to begin moving back to the south again by Thursday night
and Friday across the forecast area. Isolated convection expected
today through Thursday and should become more isolated to scattered
by Friday afternoon and evening as the front approaches from the
north and the northwesterly upper flow allows for upper level support
to track southeast out of the central and southern Rockies in the
form of a shortwave trough.

The CAMS models support the possibility of convection developing
across the eastern and south central Texas Panhandle by 18Z today and
then developing northward through the afternoon hours today. The 00Z
NAM also supports at least the possibility for convection developing
over the eastern and south central Texas Panhandle by 18Z today and
then convection developing across the western Panhandles between 18Z
today and 00Z Thursday. Models supporting a somewhat drier trend
after 00Z Thursday through about 00Z Friday with convection chances
increasing again Friday and Friday night and also by Saturday
evening/night.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

16/9



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