Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 011040
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
540 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SLOWLY ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE DIAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT FOG OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IS TRYING TO
MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THIS
FOG WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS AS WINDS ARE SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT MIGHT IMPACT KDHT. IF
IT DOES THERE WOULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND
9Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW SHOWER POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT HAVE BEEN REDUCED FURTHER AND ARE NOW FOR FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS ONLY...WHERE LATE DAY VORTICITY MAXIMUM COULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR INVERTED SURFACE TROF.  COULD ALSO BE SOME DRIFT
OF SHOWERS INTO THIS AREA VIA NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SATURDAY MORNING POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN
REMOVED...DUE TO EXPECTED LACK OF FORCING AND WEAK WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW.  CONTINUED DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS.

ALTHOUGH LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AND EXPECTED LACK OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH MODERATE DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE...BUT WARM 500
MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ALL BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN PANHANDLES...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  LOW POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED
ALL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 25
PERCENT.  NO EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03





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