Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 262333
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
633 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Radar is currently showing light rain moving in across mainly the
southwestern Texas Panhandle at this time. Not sure how much of
this is actually reaching the ground given the dry lower levels.
Cannot rule out a few areas picking up some minor accumulations
this evening. Additionally, a few rumbles of thunder are possible
and some lightning has been detected across eastern NM and the
southwestern TX Panhandle, so have added low end thunder mentions
through this evening to the forecast.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A large scale trough remains over the southern plains which is
moving a few bands of light moisture across the panhandles today
through Wednesday. This band of moisture will be slowly drifting
from the SW to the NE through the rest of today and Wednesday.
This means the whole panhandles has a small chance of seeing some
form of precipitation just with terrible odds. This moisture is
currently causing some cloud cover but as more arrives it should
start causing the isolated showers late in the afternoon. With
solar heating there is a extremely slim chance that an isolated
thunderstorm could occur if we get enough instability. As cold air
is remaining across the panhandles the showers can change from
daytime rain to light snow during the overnight and early morning
hours. Any shower if it does form will not result in much
meaningful precipitation as the moisture amounts are low. The
trough present over the region is causing a slack pressure
gradient so the winds through Wednesday are expected to be
light. The cold air over the panhandles will keep temperatures
semi-stable and cold with highs in the 50s for both today and
Wednesday and overnight lows below to just above freezing.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

An upper-level ridge will build over the Panhandles Thursday as West
Coast troughing develops and an embedded shortwave trough moves
toward the Colorado Rockies, kicking off lee cyclogenesis. A
steepened surface pressure gradient develops across the Panhandles
which results in breezy southwesterly winds. Elevated fire weather
conditions are possible in the western Texas Panhandle. Some breezy
winds continue through Thursday night before another embedded
shortwave trough arrives Friday as the West Coast trough continues
to dig. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible again Friday
for much of the western Texas Panhandle.

Saturday... the aforementioned trough amplifies and begins to move
east, and the ridge over the region noticeably amplifies. The
winds weaken compared to previous days but still remain around
10-20 mph. Sunday, the jet streak associated with the trough
begins to reach the Rockies which kicks off more robust
cyclogenesis on the lee of the Rockies. There is relatively good
agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance regarding the
location of the surface low Sunday afternoon (southeastern
Colorado or southwestern Kansas), but there is more variance in
the strength of the low... ranging from low-990mb to around
1000mb. This results in a steep surface pressure gradient again
with 20-30 mph sustained winds possible. Some details will need to
be worked out regarding wind gusts such as the presence and
location of a stacked jet, but there is indication that cloud
cover may inhibit mixing especially with southeastward extent. For
now, there is potential for wind gusts up to 45 mph in the west
but lesser or greater gusts are possible depending upon how the
aforementioned uncertainties play out.

Model spread increases dramatically Monday as the trough crosses the
Rockies and ejects. Some deterministic and ensemble members suggest
a negatively tilted shortwave trough moves across the Panhandles
Monday which leads to a robust low pressure with windy conditions.
However, the majority of the guidance doesn`t have this feature and
keeps Monday a more typical day for the area wind-wise. A cold front
begins to move in from the north later on Monday, but timing varies
significantly from as early as the late afternoon hours to as late
as the overnight hours.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions are forecast at the beginning of this TAF cycle.
Light rain showers with a low potential for thunder are moving
into the western TX Panhandle and may move over KAMA in the next
few hours. Low clouds are expected across the west and north
overnight into the early morning hours with MVFR ceilings forecast
at KDHT and potentially KGUY. These clouds should clear out
towards the end of this TAF issuance. Light winds around 10 kts
are less are forecast outside of sporadic winds associated with
showers or storms.

Muscha

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Thursday, Friday,
Sunday, and Monday, due to breezy winds and low RH. Winds generally
aren`t favored to weaken much each night which may not allow RH
values to recover significantly overnight. The potential exists for
windy conditions on Sunday with RFTIs as high at 5 in the northwest.
With ERC percentiles forecast to be in the 50-60% range in the
northwestern combined Panhandles by Sunday, low-end critical fire
weather conditions are possible.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                31  55  31  72 /  30  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  23  50  26  72 /  10  30   0   0
Boise City OK              24  51  28  69 /  20  10   0   0
Borger TX                  32  57  32  76 /  20  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              30  57  30  74 /  30  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  30  57  28  73 /  30  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               31  54  30  72 /  30  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 26  53  25  71 /  20  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  23  52  27  71 /  20  30   0   0
Hereford TX                29  58  29  73 /  30  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                28  52  28  71 /  30  40   0   0
Pampa TX                   31  53  31  73 /  30  20   0   0
Shamrock TX                31  52  29  70 /  30  30   0   0
Wellington TX              33  54  30  70 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...05


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