Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 270932 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
432 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PERIODS OF
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION WAS ONGOING IN A SMALL CLUSTER FROM THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
OTHER ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS THE MOST APPARENT OF A
SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON TYPE. ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOST FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED
LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE OPEN AND PHASE SOMEWHAT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. NET RESULT WILL BE MEAN HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT NECESSITATING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DETAILS BECOME INCREASINGLY BLURRY GIVEN
THE INHERENT NATURE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SMALL WAVES AND LARGER
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISCREPANCIES THAT EMERGE IN THE MODELS.
ADDITIONALLY...SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INCLUDING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORCING WILL BE A FACTOR. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
RESOLVED BETTER WITH TIME. FOR NOW HAVE RELEGATED HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND EXPANDED/INCREASED THIS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW ONE MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN BROAD TROUGH THAT MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED BY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUENCES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND A
TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST. MEAN CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHARPENING
DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                84  60  77  56  79 /  20  50  60  40  30
BEAVER OK                  84  61  81  60  80 /  40  50  50  40  30
BOISE CITY OK              84  57  81  52  77 /  30  30  30  30  20
BORGER TX                  85  63  81  60  81 /  30  40  50  40  30
BOYS RANCH TX              88  61  82  56  81 /  20  50  50  30  20
CANYON TX                  85  59  78  56  80 /  20  50  60  40  20
CLARENDON TX               86  60  75  59  79 /  30  50  60  50  30
DALHART TX                 85  58  80  55  79 /  20  40  40  30  20
GUYMON OK                  86  60  82  58  79 /  40  30  40  30  20
HEREFORD TX                84  59  79  55  82 /  20  50  60  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                84  62  80  61  79 /  40  40  50  50  30
PAMPA TX                   82  60  76  58  78 /  30  40  60  50  30
SHAMROCK TX                83  61  74  61  77 /  30  50  60  50  40
WELLINGTON TX              85  62  74  62  79 /  30  50  60  50  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17







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