Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 281734
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1234 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS AT ALL LOCATIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY
LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT KAMA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ARE NORTHEAST OF DALHART AND AMARILLO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...SO FOR NOW ONLY PREVAILED THUNDER AT GUYMON. EXPECT
AMENDMENTS TO NARROW WINDOW FOR HIGHEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW NEARS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL LESSEN THEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...MOST
LIKELY BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTH TEXAS SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST
TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE PUSH SLOWLY EAST JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY 00Z
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
QUICKLY DESTABILIZE BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH 0-3 KM SRH OF 296 M2/S2 AND
BRN SHEAR OF 96-99 M2/S2. SURFACE-6 KM SHEAR OF 60-65 KNOTS AND
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS. SEVERE THREAT LIKELY
AFTER 21Z TODAY...BUT WILL PUSH BACK TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GRIDS TO BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKING EAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL APPROACH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES BY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY 06Z SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTION MAY COME BY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/16


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.