Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231718 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Weak NE/SW oriented frontal boundary bisecting the region slid
through AMA over the past few hours. This front is forecast to slow
and stall across the SE TX Panhandle this afternoon and should wash
out there on Monday allowing a return to SRLY flow. The front will
not preclude temps near 20 degrees above normal today under sunny
skies. Current forecast is on track and no significant updates are
planned attm.


DHT and GUY will see some gusty N-NE winds for next few hours
behind a weak front. Otherwise this boundary will have little
implications on the TAFs. Dry atmosphere will prevail with VFR
conditions expected through the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 545 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/

A surface trough will pass through the TAF sites late this morning
into the early afternoon. DHT`s winds will get a little gusty as the
trough passes by. GUY and AMA should have winds around or below 15
knots. Winds will decrease with sunset tonight. Skies should remain

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/

A surface trough will move south across the panhandles today
switching our southwest winds around to the northeast. Highs today
will be a tad cooler today, especially across the north, given the
more upslope wind.

The upper level ridge over the southern plains breaks down and moves
off to the east by Monday night. Meanwhile, a short wave trough over
northern Mexico now moves northeast through the ridge tonight
through early Monday. No precipitation is expected for the
panhandles with this short wave, but there could be some further
down state.

An upper level short wave trough will approach the panhandles Monday
night into Tuesday. As this wave moves across the panhandles during
the day Tuesday, instability and shear will increase. The jury is
still out on whether there will be enough low level moisture to work
with across the panhandles to bring showers and thunderstorms to the
area during the day on Tuesday. For now will leave pops out of the
forecast for the daytime Tuesday as confidence is too low. The
better chance of rain seems to come further to the east across
southern kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday night. For now have kept pops
in across the far northeast CWA for Tuesday evening, but the
precipitation may very well be further east by this time. The latest
models are not agreeing on the timing of this wave and if you
believe the slowest model, then there is an outside chance of rain
for our northeast Tuesday evening.

Upper level ridge builds back over the southern Rockies and adjacent
high plains Wednesday through the end of this forecast which will
spell dry weather for us.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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