000
FXUS64 KAMA 041746 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1146 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO REWORK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL NOW START THE
ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM FRIDAY. THOUGH
WE ARE NOT EXPECTED SNOW TO LAST THROUGH THIS ENTIRE TIME...WE ALSO
WANTED TO EMPHASIZE THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.

JOHNSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. EVEN WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING...DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH
GIVEN HOW DENSE THE AIR MASS IS. THUS...THINK ONLY THE EXTREME SW TX
PANHANDLE HAS A CHANCE TO WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY.

JOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH ALL THE TERMINALS WITH N/NE WINDS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE 00Z-03Z WITH NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO
25 KT.

THE MOST PROBLEMATIC ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST IS FLIGHT CATEGORIES,
AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

LLWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE AT KAMA AND KDHT
THROUGH 16Z WHEN WINDS WEAKEN ALOFT. DESPITE THE WEAKENING WINDS
ALOFT, THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST A 150 DEGREE WIND SHIFT WITHIN
THE LOWEST 2000 FT THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.

-SN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDHT AND KGUY AFTER 09Z, BUT DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW THIS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH AN EXPECTED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR LATER TODAY
PLUNGING THE PANHANDLES INTO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
MAY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

EVEN AT THIS LATE HOUR...THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL DISAGREEMENT
OVER THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. AT LEAST AN
INITIAL SURGE HAS PUSHED THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOWER 60S. A FINAL SURGE OF COLD AIR
SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SUNSET TONIGHT. THEN...THE
ARCTIC AIR IS HERE TO STAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS...AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.

LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE AND FAR NW TX PANHANDLE. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW SHOULD BE
MINIMAL FROM THIS FIRST ROUND. BY NOON THURSDAY...A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF SNOW SHOULD SET UP ROUGHLY FROM
HARTLEY COUNTY TO TEXAS COUNTY. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
POSSIBLE SECOND BAND SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE FIRST COULD BRING
INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG A LINE FROM VEGA TO BEAVER HEADING
INTO THE EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING HAS MOST SNOWFALL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE LAST ACCUMULATING
SNOW FALLING IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
TO 6 AM THAT MORNING. SOME PERIODS OF FLURRIES COULD LINGER BEHIND
UNTIL DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLES.
OVERALL...WE ARE EXPECTING AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.

NF

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS THE MAIN SHOT AT SNOW CLEARS THE AREA...THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE PERSISTENT COLDER AIR IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THINK NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST NIGHTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO
NEAR FREEZING...THOUGH THINK CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MOST PLACES BELOW
FREEZING EVEN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENTLY THINK TUESDAY WILL BE
FIRST CHANCE TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND 15 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL.

CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THOUGH AT THIS TIME THINK ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS
THAN ONE HALF INCH.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...SHOULD
THE COLD FRONT IN FACT RETREAT NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...
     MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

10/16