000
FXUS64 KAMA 222237
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
537 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will be predominant for the 00Z TAF period. At
times within the first few hours, VCSH conditions may provide an
isolated chance of MVFR conditions at times at all TAF sites if
these slow moving thunderstorms make their way near the sites.
Otherwise, winds be variable between 10-15 kts throughout the TAF
period. PROB30 group was introduced past 18Z to the end of the
TAF period. Similar to this afternoon and evening, storms will
develop once again toward the end of the TAF period where MVFR and
perhaps even IFR conditions are possible if storms directly
impact the TAF site.

Meccariello

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Not too much has changed from the previous forecast. Several chances
for thunderstorms are in the forecast through the extended. Severe
weather chances are limited at best but some strong storms are
certainly possible. Convection has initiated over central and
southern parts of the Texas Panhandle. These isolated sub-severe
storms will linger around through the afternoon and evening. These
storms are slow moving in nature, so the biggest threat will be
localized moderate to heavy rainfall.

High pressure continues to be the dominate feature in the upper
levels. Weak forcing and limited instability will hinder severe
weather chances over the next several days. Convective
temperatures were reached this afternoon with a surface trough
helping initiate thunderstorms across the area. Lightning was
noted with these storms as well. DCAPE values are of interest for
possible gusty storms as the more efficient rain producers create
outflow boundaries as they collapse. Nothing to speak of so far
with regards to strong storms but certainly a possibility going
into later parts of the day and evening. The convective allowing
models have storms lingering around through the afternoon, albeit
isolated in nature and dying out after we lose daytime heating.
Later in the evening signs are pointing to more widespread
rainfall to the north and northeast behind the surface trough, but
these chances may stay east of the forecast area across New
Mexico. Precipitable water values are also high the next several
days which points to possible efficient rain producers. Given the
slow movement of storms via forecast soundings and hodographs,
there are several chances for localized heavy rainfall the next
several days.

Outside of thunderstorm chances, temperatures will be in the 90s for
the most part, with some areas around 100 degrees. All things being
considered, temperatures will not be too far from normal for this
time of year.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

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