Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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292
FXUS64 KAMA 230913
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
313 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge over the Panhandles early will gradually push east by
late today as a closed upper low tracks east out of the western
states and Great Basin region today...and across the central Rockies
tonight and early Tuesday. The closed upper low will continue moving
east across the central Plains states by late Tuesday and the Midwest
Tuesday night. A deepening surface low today over eastern Colorado
with a surface trough extending south to near the Texas and New
Mexico state line will remain fairly stationary today and tonight.
The pressure gradient is expected to tighten with the strongest winds
expected over portions of the western Texas Panhandle.

The deepening surface low and surface trough will then track east
into the central Plains states and the Panhandles Tuesday as a strong
cold front pushes south out of southwest Kansas. The cold front
should move south into the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles by
late Tuesday and then across the remainder of the forecast area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Much colder but dry conditions expected
the middle of the week and into the upcoming weekend. A reinforcing
shot of colder air expected Thursday night or early Friday. A
moderating trend possible by early next week with continued dry
conditions expected.

Schneider

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions appear to be shaping up for portions
of the western...southwestern and south central Texas Panhandle
today. Despite the recent precipitation/rainfall...1-hour fuels as
of Sunday have now fallen to around 5 to 6 percent across much of the
forecast area and should continue to fall today and Tuesday with dry
along with breezy to windy conditions expected. Also...the fire
danger rating has risen into the moderate to high category as of
Sunday and this should also experience a continued increase today
and Tuesday. Deepening surface low pressure to the lee of the Rockies
will allow for downsloping southwest to west 20 foot winds to
increase to near 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph by early
this afternoon. Minimum afternoon relative humidities near 20 percent
are also expected across much of the western portions of the Texas
Panhandle today.

Tuesday...a vigorous surface low pressure system moving east across
Kansas will allow for a strong cold front to push south into the
Oklahoma and portions of the northern Texas Panhandles Tuesday
afternoon. Ahead of the cold front and surface low pressure...a pre-
frontal surface trough will push east out of New Mexico and across
the Panhandles during the day Tuesday. Downsloping 20 foot west winds
are expected to increase to around 25 to 35 mph with gusts near 45
mph by Tuesday afternoon. Minimum relative humidities are also
expected to fall to around 20 percent or so across much of the
Panhandles. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible once
again Tuesday across a much broader area of the Panhandles.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                70  38  56  25  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  66  38  58  25  44 /   0   0   5   5   5
Boise City OK              65  33  52  20  40 /   0   0   5   5   5
Borger TX                  69  42  58  27  44 /   0   0   0   0   5
Boys Ranch TX              69  38  56  24  44 /   0   0   0   5   5
Canyon TX                  71  38  56  24  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               70  40  61  28  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 66  34  53  21  43 /   0   0   5   5   5
Guymon OK                  66  37  55  24  42 /   0   0   5   5   5
Hereford TX                69  37  54  23  45 /   0   0   0   0   5
Lipscomb TX                66  40  59  27  45 /   0   0   0   5   5
Pampa TX                   68  39  56  25  43 /   0   0   0   0   5
Shamrock TX                68  40  64  29  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              69  39  66  31  50 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/11



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