Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 262210
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
510 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Focus for this discussion will be on the small thunderstorm chances
today/tonight, as well as thunderstorm chances next week.

The track of the surface low has really dry slotted us today across
the Panhandles with dewpoints only in the 20s and 30s. Current
satellite analysis shows very a shallow cumulus field across eastern
parts of the forecast area with little vertical extent. Chances for
rainfall look minimal today across the forecast area with the dry
atmosphere in place over the forecast area. If we get any rainfall
it will likely be on the backside of the low with the wrap around
precipitation across our northeastern parts of our area.

Looking ahead at our next chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday there
does appear to be the chance for severe weather. Depending on the
track of the surface low and associated dryline there will still be
some unceratinty leading up to Tuesday. That being said, there will
be good return flow ahead of the dryline and we should get dewpoints
into the 50s across eastern parts of the forecast area. Better lapse
rates will be south of our forecast area though. Strong bulk shear
(0-6km) and most unstable instability around 1000-2000 J/kg
(depicted by the recent NAM and GFS) will be in place across the
forecast area. Forecast soundings all show good veering in the
column too, especially in the low levels where the NAM has 300-400
m^2/s^2 in the 0-1km zone. All in all, strong updrafts are possible
with the threat for large hail, damaging winds, and possibly
tornadoes Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday we have several chances for thunderstorms but at this
time its too early to discern any potential severe weather. However,
chances are low at this time. Thudnerstorms are certainly possible
though.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                75  39  71  45  65 /   0   0   0   0  60
Beaver OK                  75  38  70  44  63 /  20  20   0   0  70
Boise City OK              60  34  69  43  61 /  20   5   0   5  60
Borger TX                  74  39  73  45  65 /   5   5   0   0  70
Boys Ranch TX              73  37  73  44  64 /   5   0   0   0  60
Canyon TX                  74  38  72  45  65 /   0   0   0   0  60
Clarendon TX               79  42  72  47  67 /   0   0   0   0  60
Dalhart TX                 68  34  70  43  63 /  10   5   0   0  60
Guymon OK                  62  36  70  44  62 /  20  10   0   0  70
Hereford TX                74  37  73  45  65 /   0   0   0   0  60
Lipscomb TX                77  42  72  45  65 /  10  20   0   0  70
Pampa TX                   77  39  70  46  65 /   5   5   0   0  70
Shamrock TX                77  44  72  47  67 /   5   5   0   0  60
Wellington TX              79  44  74  48  69 /   0   5   0   0  60

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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