Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 210554 AAC
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1154 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs, increasing cloud cover is expected at all terminal
sites as an upper level storm system affects the region on Saturday.
Surface winds will increase again Saturday in advance of a cold
front and approaching upper level storm system. The cold front will
move through the area Saturday evening with gusty NW to N winds in
its wake. There will be a threat of rain showers and perhaps an
isold tstm Saturday afternoon and evening. The greatest likelihood of
precipitation will be at KGUY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 622 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

UPDATE...
Surface winds have diminished to below 35 mph, and have allowed Wind
Advisory to expire on schedule. Updated products out soon.

Andrade

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 549 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, increasing cloud cover is expected at all terminal
sites as an upper level storm system affects the region on Saturday.
Surface winds will diminish markedly this evening, then increase
again Saturday in advance of a cold front and approaching upper level
storm system. The cold front will move through the area after 00Z
Sunday. There will be a threat of showers and perhaps an isold tstm
Saturday afternoon. However, confidence is low on precipitation
affecting any one particular TAF site due to expected spotty coverage.
Therefore, have omitted mention of this weather element for this fcst
cycle.

Andrade

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
No big changes to the going forecast.  Wind advisory will remain in
place through 6 PM for much of Texas Panhandle as strong winds aloft
continue to mix to the surface.

Have confined Saturday morning pops to southwest part of Texas
Panhandle only, as forcing from incoming shortwave trof approaches
late in the morning.  Have increased pops, particularly in the east
and north parts of the Combined Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles for
Saturday afternoon, and have added the mention of thunder.  Increasing
instability, strong dynamics, steepening lapse rates and sharpening
baroclinicity along advancing boundary should support at least
isolated thunder.

Pops for rain retained Saturday evening across all but far southwest
part of forecast area, which should be most removed from moisture and
forcing.  Mention of snow late Saturday night has been retained for
that 6-hour period only, with possibility of same included primarily
for locations on the Caprock.  Any snow amounts expected to remain
below one inch.  Moderately strong northwest winds expected late
Saturday night and into Sunday due to tight pressure gradient in
post-frontal airmass.

Dry conditions thereafter.  Winds begin to increase again on Monday,
and then increase further on Tuesday as next shortwave trof and
associated cold front approach.

Above-normal high temperatures expected daily through Tuesday,
followed by colder conditions Wednesday and Thursday.  Slight warmup
expected on Friday.  03

Cockrell

FIRE WEATHER...
No elevated or critical fire weather conditions expected through
Friday due to relative humidity values remaining above necessary
thresholds.  Windy conditions today and Tuesday may cause an
increase in fire spread potential.  03

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$


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