Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 260531 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1131 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS
KGUY BY 06Z FRIDAY.  NO REAL CHANGES FROM EARLIER FORECAST EXCEPT TO
BRING FRONT INTO KAMA AT 12Z FRIDAY.  MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
ANTICIPATED BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH ONLY MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 6 HOURS.  CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FOLLOWING ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
ARRIVE AROUND 06Z FRI...09Z FRI...AND 13Z FRI AT KGUY...KDHT...AND
KAMA RESPECTIVELY.  AS COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NORTH...AT SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER WIND SHIFT.  AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN ACTIVE UPR AIR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT SNOW
CHANCES FRI-FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT-TUE. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR A VERY
COLD AIR DUMP NEXT TUE-WED.

RAMPED UP SNOW CHANCES OVER THE FAR NW PANHANDLES TMRW AS SHRTWV
ENERGY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OUT SOME FLAKES IN SPITE OF AN
INITIALLY DRY COLUMN. CAN`T RULE OUT A BIT OF FRZ DRIZZLE OR SLEET,
BUT SNOW SHOULD BE THE MAIN PTYPE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS
IN THE MORNING. UP TO AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS LIKE
BOISE CITY, KENTON, AND MAYBE GUYMON OR DALHART.

STRONG WRLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP US DRY BUT KEEP MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE ROCKIES OFF AND ON FOR SAT-MON TIMEFRAME.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL THESE DAYS WITH SUN THE WARMEST.

THE COLDEST AIR WE`VE SEEN SINCE MAYBE MID NOVEMBER STILL APPEARS TO
BE ON THE WAY FOR TUE-WED AS H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND -20C
BY TUE NIGHT IN THE ECMWF/GEM AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE
GFS/GEFS. IF THE COLDER SOLUTIONS PAN OUT...THIS WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN
THE TEENS FOR MANY ON TUE. SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK, BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS THIS COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED COLDER
THAN NORMAL PERIOD...WE`LL KEEP OUR EYES ON IT.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

PATCHY ONGOING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EASE BY SUNSET.
COLDER AIR SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PREDOMINATELY ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/16




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