Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1135 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

For 18z TAFs: VFR conditions with persistent high clouds will
eventually clear out from north to south towards the end of the
period. Winds will be westerly this afternoon at 10 to 20 knots
with the stronger winds across the western Texas Panhandle. Expect
a decrease in wind speeds overnight before windy to very windy
conditions commence late Thursday morning. West-southwest to west
winds at 25 to 35 knots sustained with gusts over 40 knots will be
possible especially on the Caprock in the Texas Panhandle by 17z



PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 414 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and western states will
track east across the Intermountain Region tonight and the Rockies
on Thursday. A cold front will push south across central and
western Kansas today as a surface low over southeastern Colorado
with a surface trough extending south to near the Texas and New
Mexico state line deepening later today. The deepening surface
low should move east across southern Kansas Thursday along the
frontal boundary with the surface trough located across the
northwestern portions of the forecast area. Strong west and
southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts near 50 mph Thursday may
require the issuance of a Wind Advisory across portions of the
Panhandles. The cold front will begin to push into the Panhandles
Thursday night or Friday morning but may stall near the southwest
Texas Panhandle Friday afternoon. Cooler but continued dry
conditions expected Friday into the weekend. Another surface low
is forecast to develop Sunday to the lee of the southern Rockies
and a secondary surge of cooler air possible early or middle of
next week as the surface low tracks east and then south out of
New Mexico and across the Panhandles. Strong west and southwest
winds will be possible ahead of the secondary cold front early
next week as temperatures rebound before the cold front arrives.
Continued dry conditions today through the extended forecast


Elevated fire weather conditions should develop today across the
southwestern portions of the Texas Panhandle as westerly winds
increase this afternoon to around 15 to 20 mph with gusts possibly
to near 25 mph and afternoon relative humidities of 15 to 20

On Thursday, critical to extremely critical fire weather
conditions are likely to develop across all of the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles as west to southwest winds increase to around
20 to 30 mph or 25 to 35 mph with gusts to near 50 mph with
minimum afternoon humidities of around 8 to 13 percent. Looking at
the Southern Plains Wildfire Outbreak Composite Map, very similar
parameters are setting up for Thursday with a 700 mb west
southwest 55 to 65 knot jet max across West Texas, a 500 mb west
southwest 60 to 70 knot jet max across the Panhandles and Texas
South Plains, and a 300 mb westerly 110 to 115 knot jet max
coming out of the southwestern states. The 850 mb thermal ridge
shifts eastward from over the Panhandles today to over Oklahoma
and north and west central Texas on Thursday. The 700 mb and 500
mb troughs on Thursday are located over the central Rockies
rather than over the central Plains states. Also, the 300 mb
trough is displaced a little farther to the northwest on Thursday
rather than over the central Rockies or central Plains states.
However, a moderate threat of significant wildfire outbreaks will
certainly be possible on Thursday. RFTI, Red Flag Threat Index,
values will range from 7 and 8 across the western portions of the
Panhandles to around 5 and 6 across the eastern portions of the

Elevated fire weather conditions will again be possible Friday
mainly over the southwestern portions of the Texas Panhandle. 20
foot winds are expected to increase to around 15 to 25 mph or
possibly 20 to 30 mph with gusts near 40 mph next Monday and
Tuesday. Minimum afternoon relative humidities are forecast to be
around 15 to 20 percent or less across most, if not all, of the
Panhandles next Monday and Tuesday. Elevated to critical fire
weather conditions are expected early next week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...
     Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday for the
     following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.



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