Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 250538
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1238 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.AVIATION...
06z Issuance...Low pressure system now over central OK will
continue eastward with MVFR cloud deck slowly retreating. KAMA and
KDHT have cleared out except for a few lingering low clouds. KGUY
is still under MVFR deck for another couple hours. The entire
Panhandles should be VFR by mid morning with last of lingering
clouds exiting the far eastern zones by 16z or so. Winds will
stay out of the northwest for most of the morning and decrease to
around 10 knots this afternoon before backing to the south during
the evening.

Ward

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 822 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

UPDATE...
Have allowed High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory to expire on
time.  Winds have fallen below criteria for both hazards, with
continued gradual diminishment in speeds expected this evening.
Have also lowered overnight temperatures slightly.  No other
changes at this time.  Graphical forecasts have been updated with
text products being issued at this time.

Cockrell

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 654 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
North northwest surface winds will diminish slowly this evening,
with gusts above 30 kt expected to continue past 06z.  Cold air
advection will utilize wrap-around moisture from departing strong
closed low to promote the development of MVFR to VFR stratocumulus
this evening.  Amendments may be forthcoming regarding timing of
improvement.  Northwest surface winds cease gusting between 06z
and 12z Saturday as pressure gradient relaxes.  Light northwest
winds Saturday morning will trend to west and southwest by day`s
end as next lee trof develops over eastern New Mexico.  Clear sky
expected on Saturday with no visibility restrictions foreseen.

Cockrell

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 403 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The vigorous closed upper low over the extreme eastern Texas
Panhandle late today will exit the Panhandles by this evening with
skies clearing behind the departing upper low as subsidence
prevails. The strong northwest and north winds will slowly subside
after 00Z to 05Z Saturday. An upper ridge will build in over the
Panhandles early this weekend but will quickly move east by Sunday
as another Southern stream closed upper low approaches the
Panhandles from the west by Sunday. Some rain showers will be
possible Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening across mainly the
Oklahoma and the extreme northern and northeastern Texas
Panhandles but drier conditions will return by Monday. A cold
front will push south and east across the forecast area late
Sunday or early Sunday night.

An upper ridge builds in briefly across the Panhandles Monday
before another Southern stream closed upper low approaches the
forecast area from the southwestern states Tuesday. Better chances
for convection likely Tuesday through the middle of next week as
a surface wave tracks east out of New Mexico and across the
Southern Plains of Texas and then across the Red River Valley. The
closed upper low forecast to track much further south than the
closed upper low today and also the one on Sunday. Increased
chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday
before the upper low lifts northeast into the Central Plains and
Midwestern states by next Thursday. The showers and thunderstorms
will end from the north and west by early Thursday with drier
conditions expected after 18Z Thursday. Another Southern stream
closed upper low forecast to approach the Panhandles again by next
weekend bringing additional chances for convection. A very
unsettled weather pattern the next 7 to 10 days and an active
Southern stream pattern.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/2



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