Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 181721

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1121 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

For the 18z TAFs...potential exists for a couple hours of lingering
stratus at DHT at the beginning of the forecast.  Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected to prevail at all terminals . Southerly surface
winds at or below 15 kt will continue until weak cold front causes
shift to northwest at northern terminals around 10z to 12z Thursday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 947 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

Have issued update to graphical forecasts, eliminating morning fog
and showers.  Have also adjusted sky cover for the remainder of the
day, expecting clouds to persist across eastern sections longer than
was previously forecast.  Updated text products will be issued


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 518 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

MVFR/LIFR categories possible this morning at all TAF sites as fog
spreads out across the Panhandles. Expect conditions to improve by
16z. Cigs will continue to improve throughout the day with SCT mid
to high clouds by 18Z and clearing likely after 06z tonight. Winds
will be mainly out of the south to southwest 5-10kts through 06z with
5-15kts possible after 06z.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

Overnight shower activity continues to diminish as we approach the 6
o`clock hour. These showers were sparked by an embedded shortwave
within our broad upper low pressure system which has set up residence
over the Panhandles. This broad low pressure system is expected to
remain over the area until Thursday morning as weak ridging moves
in from the west. Until then, we expect to see a gradual warm up
across the Panhandles with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s both
today and tomorrow. We should remain dry both days despite another
shortwave expected to round the broad low pressure later today.

Thursday night into early Friday morning, will see the ridge axis
traverse the Panhandles. With the ridge axis east the of Panhandles,
our high temperatures will range from near 50 across the northwest to
the upper 60s across the southeast. As we get later in the day on
Friday we expect to see another shortwave eject from the southern
Rockies, but the current track of this low is too far north to bring
precip chances to the Panhandles. The Canadian keeps precip hopes
alive for the Oklahoma Panhandle Friday night, but the overall
forecast trend has been a more northern track of this low.

Early Saturday morning, we will see heights falling as a trough dives
southeastward from the Four Corners Region. This trough is forecast
to deepens once it moves out of the Rockies but there still remains
significant differences on how quickly this deepening (and subsequent
closing off) will occur. The GFS remains the most aggressive with
this deepening while also being the slowest with the eastward
progression of the newly formed closed low. The CMC is the least
aggressive model to the point that the trough doesn`t close off and
keeps the Panhandles void of any precip chances. The ECMWF is
slightly less agressive than the GFS, but is slightly faster with the
low`s eastward progression; similar to the CMC. The forecast is
biased towards the ECMWF given it`s better run to run consistency.
This results in precip chances spreading from west to east late in
the day on Saturday. Overnight the low is expected to close off and
start to move eastward. This will place the Panhandles in the
northwestern quadrant of the system. Forecast soundings (biased
towards the ECMWF) during this time shows the potential to
transition from rain to snow. There is some difficulty on how much
snow we could get due to near surface temperatures being at or a few
degrees above freezing. Have kept totals for the northern zones just
short of 1/2 an inch with trace amounts further south. If we are able
to cool off quicker than expected or the system slows by 6 hours,
then we could be looking at amounts approaching an inch.

Any snow ongoing Sunday morning across the far eastern Panhandles
should clear before noon. Any snow that does accumulate will quickly
melt during the day as our high temperatures on Sunday are expected
to reach into the 40s and 50s.

Another ridge is expected to briefly build over the Panhandles to
start off the work week and allow our high temperatures across the
southern Texas Panhandle warm into the 60s. Our next system is
expected late Monday night into Tuesday as yet another low moves
across the central High Plains. This current track would keep the
Panhandles in the dryslot of the system with a very slight chance for
precip across the northern zones Tuesday night. Again p-type was
biased towards the ECMWF which shows another chance for light snow.
If this low tracks further south then we could be looking at a round
of rain during the day Tuesday before a greater chunk of the area
sees snow Tuesday night.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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