Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 250947
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
447 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS...ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
PROCESS OF DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE
TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE/100 KT UPPER JET OVER WESTERN WY. LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND SOUTHEAST CO AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM HAS LED TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES OVERNIGHT. THESE
SOUTH WINDS ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS MILD...WITH 4 AM
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY...THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WILL BE SEEN IN A DEEPENING LOW WHICH
WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE TODAY...AND BE CENTERED
WEST OF WICHITA FALLS BY EARLY EVENING. THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
AND TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP SURGE A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...SOME POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING
AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS WORK ACROSS. CAN/T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LINGER...BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
DOMINANT MODE. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PANHANDLES
LOOKS TO BE STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL REALLY TIGHTEN UP DURING
THIS TIME BETWEEN THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A
1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. SHORT-TERM
MODELS SHOW 3-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 10-14 MB AND H85 WINDS
OF 40-50 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN THESE FAVORABLE SIGNALS FOR
STRONG WINDS...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE STRONGEST CORRIDOR OF WINDS IS
ANTICIPATED. SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH IN THESE AREAS. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS WILL
LIKELY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT STRONGEST GRADIENT AND
H85 WINDS LINE UP ACROSS THESE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. UTILIZED A
NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE TODAY TO TRY TO BETTER REFLECT THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN...EASING THE GRADIENT. THE WINDS TODAY
SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD TEST OF POTENTIAL BLOWING DUST ISSUES THIS
SPRING...AS THE TYPICAL MARCH WINDS HAVE BEEN LARGELY ABSENT THUS
FAR.

AFTER TODAY...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER IN WAKE OF TODAY/S
FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL BE QUICK TO REBOUND. RISING HEIGHTS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP
TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...BUT BE DAMPENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE AND TRACKS IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO. HENCE...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION ANY PRECIP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TODAY...WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. THE NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BEYOND TODAY...NO
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                73  34  63  36  73 /  10  20   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  67  32  65  35  72 /  20  20   5   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              60  30  62  34  73 /  20  20   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  73  36  65  38  74 /  10  20   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              73  32  64  35  76 /  10  20   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  75  33  62  35  75 /   5  20   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               79  36  64  39  72 /   0  20   5   0   0
DALHART TX                 66  30  64  34  74 /  20  20   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  64  32  65  34  73 /  20  20   5   5   0
HEREFORD TX                75  32  62  34  75 /  10  20   5   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                71  35  64  37  72 /  20  20   5   5   0
PAMPA TX                   72  33  62  36  71 /  10  20   5   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                79  38  64  39  71 /   5  20   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              83  40  65  40  72 /   5  20   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
     LIPSCOMB...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/08





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