Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 170542

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

For the 06z TAFs...
Isolated thunderstorms across northern half of Texas Panhandle at
this time not expected to pose a threat to any of our terminals in
the near term.  Will monitor closely and amend if necessary.  VFR
conditions expected until MVFR ceilings develop as airmass
moistens behind a cold front across sections.  Duration of MVFR
ceilings remains uncertain at this time, but believe that return
to VFR will occur by 21z.  Scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms may have an impact at AMA.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 643 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017/

North winds continue at KGUY with east winds at KDHT and KAMA.
Greatest risk of thunderstorms continues to be at KAMA and have
included -TSRA group from 02-06z. Will amend TAFS as needed if the
threat drops off for storms. There might be a shower or storm
near the KDHT area around the 03-05z time period, so have added
VCTS for now, and will amend as needed for that site as well. Some
concern for MVFR cigs at KGUY and KDHT behind the cold front late
tonight into Sunday afternoon, have continued with this at both
terminal sites during this time period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017/

Lingering showers continue across the southeastern Texas Panhandle
this afternoon as last night`s shortwave continues to move off to
the northeast. We expect to see further development of storms
across the western Texas Panhandle this evening with the approach
of another shortwave which is currently over southeastern New
Mexico. In fact storms have already developed just west of Clovis,
NM. These storms are expected to move into the Panhandles this
evening, but there is some question as to how far they will move
north once in the area as we have an outflow boundary stretched
across the central zones. Instability will start out pretty
limited of around 1500 J/kg mainly across the eastern zones, but
this is expected to change as the cold front pushes through
tonight. Overnight instability will be around 2000 J/kg but the
question will be if the shortwave is still in a favorable location
for lift. Given the weakly sheared environment, pulse convection
is the anticipated storm type.

Southwest flow aloft is expected to continue through Sunday. This
will allow additional shortwaves to move across the Panhandles.
Our precip chances will persist through Sunday area wide. There is
some potential for strong to possibly severe storms as we will
have much better shear compared to previous days.

Monday will be a transitional day as the upper flow becomes more
zonal. with that being said there will still be a chance for
storms mainly across the eastern zones Monday night. Tuesday
through Thursday will start a dry period as an upper low moves
southwards across the Pacific Northwest towards the Four Corners
Region. In fact, the downsloping winds could result in well above
average (near record) high temperatures on Tuesday. This will also
help to push our afternoon relative humidities below 20 percent.
This could usher back a short duration return of elevated fire
weather conditions. As we approach the end of next week, we
continue to see a change in the upper pattern which could result
in much wetter conditions.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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