Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 160449 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1049 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast. Northerly winds
at 10 knots or less will gradually become southerly by late
afternoon or early evening on Tuesday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 916 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/

Have issued a Wind Chill Advisory for the eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle and most of the eastern Texas Panhandle until 9 am
Tuesday. Temperatures are falling a little faster than earlier
thought and winds are staying up around 10 mph for a little
longer, so decided to go with the advisory.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 506 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/

Winds will decrease to less than 10 knots by the early morning
hours of Tuesday. Skies are expected to remain VFR. A few snow
flurries may still be possible this evening at DHT, but they
should not reduce the visibility to less than 6 miles.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 409 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/

Latest water vapor imagery reveals broad cyclonic flow centered
over the upper midwest states. A strong jet streak is pivoting
around the upper low resulting in near meridional flow over the
northern and central plains. At the surface, a cold front
continues its push southward, and is now nosing into the Permian
Basin region. Most of the light freezing drizzle and flurries have
ended across the area, with much drier air filtering in behind the
front. Thus, dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the
short term. One possible exception through this evening is the
far northwest zones due to better proximity to upper jet dynamics
(specifically a right entrance region), and slightly better
surface moisture to support some very light snow. Accumulations,
if any, will be minimal and end around midnight. The meridional
flow aloft will shift further south as the trough takes a positive
tilt tonight. This will allow Arctic air to filter into the
Panhandles overnight as a strong surface ridge shifts into the
central and southern plains. Tuesday morning lows are expected to
fall well into the single digits for the southern zones to near
zero for the northern zones. Winds are expected to decrease below
10 knots after midnight, so wind chill advisories are not
anticipated at this time. The cold air mass will remain in the
area through Tuesday with highs only in the 20s and low 30s, and
near single digits again Tuesday night.

A gradual warming trend is expected Wednesday through at least
Friday as the upper low shifts east and weak split flow aloft
ensues over the central CONUS. This will push the arctic air east
of the Panhandles, while supporting at least weak height rises
and subsidence ahead of the next system over the weekend. Friday
looks to be the warmest day as the next open wave trough moves
into the western CONUS and winds aloft become southwesterly. The
pattern will support enhanced lee troughing and some breezy
southwest winds Friday afternoon. The combination of the warmer
temperatures amidst the dry airmass and breezy wind will support
some fire weather concerns. These concerns may extend into
Saturday, depending on the timing of the upper wave and associated
frontal features. Some precipitation is possible mainly Saturday
night into Sunday with the northern zones being most favored based
on current track of upper low, but moisture will continue to be
limited keeping any precip amounts light at best.


Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
mainly for the Texas Panhandle Friday afternoon as a lee trough
develops. Current wind forecasts show sustained twenty foot winds
nearing 20 mph, while min RH values drop to around 15-20 percent.
The very dry fuels (above average ERC values) continue area wide.

Conditions are slightly more uncertain for Saturday as an upper
level system moves into the area with a 500mb jet streak moving
across the Rockies resulting in increased southwest flow aloft.
The timing of this system along with associated frontal features
will have a large impact on where elevated fire weather could
occur (if any). Current forecast results in at least spotty
elevated fire weather conditions for the southern Texas Panhandle
Saturday afternoon ahead of a cold front later that evening and



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for the following
     zones: Gray...Hemphill...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...

OK...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for the following
     zones: Beaver.



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