Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 291035

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
535 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.Aviation.../For the 12z TAFs/
Model guidance has struggled significantly this morning with
convection. Their depiction of significant WAA/elevated convection
and resultant outflow this morning has not happened to the degree
shown. Today will be particularly challening for timing of
convection. We will become quite unstable by afternoon and this
should result in convection developing but boundaries or other subtle
features to focus this activity is not clear at this time. The most
likely scenario is for a weak shortwave in New Mexico to cause storms
to develop by early afternoon in eastern New Mexico. These storms may
be somewhat high based given the expected dry subcloud layer but will
move into a more moist/unstable environment and intensify/expand as
they enter the Texas Panhandle. Storm motions may be slow initially
but may accelerate as cold pool forms. Timing of VCTS at the three
terminals may need to be adjusted and once confidence increases
prevailing thunder may need to be added. There may be a window for
MVFR stratus to form this morning with the most likely sites to
experience this being Dalhart and Amarillo. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail.



.Prev Discussion... /Issued 321 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

Uncertainties for this forecast begin in the near term. There is a
strong signal in most guidance for elevated convection early this
morning in the northeast Texas Panhandle in response to substantial
northward low level moisture surge and a weak perturbation in
westerly flow aloft. Latest Layer Precipitable Water imagery from
CIRA shows the leading edge of low level moisture return delayed
from model depictions and generally collocated with large convective
cluster over western North Texas. So this casts some doubt on how
robust this moisture surge will be toward morning and how effective
it will be at generating convection. We will continue to monitor
trends but for now have kept precipitation probabilities low until
diurnal instability builds later in the day and a more substantial
vort max approaches.

Current thinking is that convection may initiate fairly early in
eastern New Mexico ahead of aforementioned approaching perturbation
with storms gradually intensifying/expanding as they move into a
more moist and unstable environment across the Central Panhandles
where surface based instability should be larger. This is our
thinking on the most concentrated area of convection, although other
storms could form earlier and further east once convective
temperatures are reached. Modest mid level flow will result in
marginal shear values for storm organization and persistence but
amount of instability and a fairly deep dry sub-cloud layer across
the west where convection may become most concentrated early on
suggest cold pool development/propagation may largely drive storm
motions by late afternoon and evening. There will be enough
instability to support marginally severe storms with hail and wind
being the primary threats. Hail would likely dominate early with any
of the convection that forms, followed by wind becoming more dominate
as cold pool matures and a convective complex potentially evolves and
accelerates east-southeastward across the area during the late
afternoon and evening.

The above scenario is dependent on how the near term situation
evolves. If elevated morning convection is more extensive like many
CAMs suggest, this would alter how surface based convection evolves
later in the day, potentially significantly limiting coverage if
significant overturning occurs and clouds limit diabatic
heating/destabilization. The same is true for tomorrow. If upstream
low level trajectories come from a region that is significantly
convectively overturned from overnight convection, this will tend to
limit coverage of storms later tomorrow. The most likely scenario as
it appears now is that weak forcing at best will be present as the
closed low remains well west of our area, and so convection should be
strongly diurnally driven. We have placed the highest probabilities
in the western half of the Panhandles where low level confluence may
be enhanced near depending lee trough in eastern New Mexico. Residual
boundaries from previous day convection may also focus new
development as destabilization occurs by afternoon. These small scale
details cannot be resolved at this time range and further refinements
to spatial/temporal details will be needed.

On Tuesday, similar concerns to previous days with regards to
convective overturning and residual boundaries exist, although the
pattern will become more synoptically active with better forcing.
The southwestern closed upper low is somewhat in phase with a
northern stream system, although the northern stream system
accelerates eastward quicker and forces a weak synoptic boundary
down into the area Tuesday afternoon as the southern stream upper low
lingers to our southwest. This front will move through Wednesday and
have lowered precipitation chances and temperatures behind the front.
The weak upper low will pass south of our area and slowly move east
through late week. Ridging will gradually build in its wake with dry
northerly mid-upper flow is expected into the weekend.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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