Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 121636

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1036 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017


For the 18Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period. Main
concern for this period will be the passage of a front and
therefore a wind shift. Along with the passage of the front there
will be a chance for low level wind shear during that time the
front is passing and wind speeds are light and variable at the
surface. Models are hinting at a jet around 1000 feet from the
northeast between 45 and 55 knots.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 540 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

West to southwest winds will pick up to around 15 knots by mid day
and they should prevail around those speeds through this forecast.
Skies are expected to remain VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

A dry forecast will continue through at least Saturday, as a
blocking ridge holds strong over the western CONUS. This will
continue to provide a dry northwest flow to the Panhandles. At
times weak cold fronts will clip the area and bring some breezy
north winds as well as highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Otherwise
highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s through Saturday. The next
cold front is expected on Thursday morning, with the cooler air
lingering through Friday, before rebounding on Saturday.

A pattern shift may finally be on the way Sunday as models are
starting to agree on a strong cold front that is expected to break
down the upper level ridge over the west. As it barrels down over
the Panhandles, there is the possibility of snow to accompany it,
mainly over the northern Panhandles. This system will quickly
exit by Monday and northwest flow will return as the ridge
rebuilds over the west. Extended guidance suggest that more
systems will be working across the Pacific northwest to break this
blocking ridge patter that has been in store for quite some time.

Stay tuned for updates to see if the pattern change the models are
suggesting will/will not occur.


Elevated Fire Weather conditions possible on Wednesday as a cold
front will move in from the north. Winds will be in the 15 to 19 mph
range with minimum relative humidities in the 15 to 20 percent range.

Elevated Fire Weather conditions possible on Saturday afternoon for
the southern Texas Panhandle. If winds come in a bit stronger with
further model runs, then the potential for critical Fire Weather
can`t be ruled out. A cold front will also move through Saturday
evening, therefore a wind shift from west southwest to north can be



VFR conditions will continue at all terminal sites through late
Tuesday evening.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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