Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 161107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
507 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 12Z
Wednesday. North winds 5 to 10 knots will become variable, mainly
southerly, 5 to 10 knots or less after 19Z to 23Z today.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 434 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/


Noteworthy items for this forecast package include the warm
temperatures Friday ("near" record) and Saturday which will
warrant some concern for fire weather conditions, and the other
item will be the very small chance for precipitation Saturday
night into Sunday.

Models are surprisingly in good agreement through at least Friday
night. Friday has been consistently showing well above normal
high temperatures with upper 60s to mid 70s currently forecast.
Amarillo is currently forecast to be 71 for a high Friday
afternoon which would be about 20 degrees above normal for this
time of year. To put this into perspective, record high for the
Amarillo area on January 19th is 75 set back in 1986. See climate
section below for more record highs. These warm temperatures
combined with breezy wind speeds and low relative humidities will
warrant a concern for elevated to critical fire weather conditions
Friday afternoon. One limiting factor here Friday for fire
weather will be the shallow mixing in the boundary layer and small
time frame. Wind speeds will be our limiting factor in other
words as they are currently borderline Red Flag criteria at the
moment. Elevated fire weather concerns seem likely Friday
afternoon. Saturday afternoon will also be on the warm side with
60s to lower 70s currently forecast with breezy winds. Please see
the fire weather section below for further details on fire weather
concerns this weekend.

Both the European and the GFS depict an upper level trough impacting
the Plains Saturday night, albeit slightly out of phase from one
another. The track of the trough and associated surface low will be
interesting to follow going forward. The current track of the
European and GFS paint several inches of snow to the north and
northeast of us. There will be decent moisture in the lower level
with this system, so if it tracks farther south we could finally
get some much needed moisture across the Panhandles. However, as
it stands now much of the precipitation will stay north of the
Amarillo forecast area of responsibility. Across our northern
zones we are advertising PoPs around 20 percent.



Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected mainly
for the Texas Panhandle Friday afternoon. The very dry fuels
(above average ERC values) continue area wide. At this time,
twenty foot winds are forecast to be around 20 mph, while min RH
values drop to around 11-20 percent.

Saturday is of lesser concern at this time. Relative humidities
are forecast to drop down to around 20 percent for southern parts
of the Texas Panhandle with wind speeds currently around 15 mph.



Record highs for January 19th

Amarillo.........75 set in 1986 (Current forecast - 71)
Dalhart..........78 set in 1986 (Current forecast - 70)
Borger...........75 set in 2000 (Current forecast - 71)



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
     following zones: Gray...Hansford...Hemphill...Hutchinson...

OK...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
     following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.



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