Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 220929
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
429 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.Discussion...
Dryline over the eastern plains of New Mexico today will move to near
the Texas and New Mexico state line by tonight. A surface low will
track east and south into the forecast area by Monday ushering in a
cold front across the northern portions of the Panhandles. The cold
front will become stationary Monday and then lift north as a warm
front late Monday or Monday evening. With the dryline remaining near
the Texas and New Mexico state line or across the far eastern plains
of New Mexico and a surface low and frontal boundary from
southeastern Colorado or the western Oklahoma Panhandle eastward
across the Oklahoma Panhandle or extreme southwest Kansas
Tuesday...abundant low level moisture will surge north and west into
the forecast area with chances for convection continuing today
through early this week...Monday and Tuesday...and mainly across the
eastern portions of the forecast area. Convection expected to become
severe mainly this afternoon and evening across most of the
Panhandles...and then again Monday and Tuesday afternoon and evening
and mainly across the eastern portions of the forecast area.

The surface low to track north and east across western Kansas by
Tuesday night and Wednesday lifting the warm front further north into
Kansas by the middle of this week. Dryline to remain south of the
surface low in western Kansas south into the Panhandles. Convection
expected to remain east of the Panhandles by Wednesday and Thursday
as closed upper low tracks into the southwestern states to the four
corners region late this week. Closed upper low weakens into open
wave late this week over the central and southern Rockies as the
upper level support tracks west and north of the forecast area. Drier
and warmer conditions Wednesday through Friday with the surface low
and frontal boundary finally pushing south across the Panhandles
Friday night into Saturday morning. Slightly cooler conditions
possible by next weekend.

Schneider

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                83  59  89  58  90 /  50  30   5  10  10
Beaver OK                  83  62  89  59  93 /  40  50  10  20  20
Boise City OK              85  53  85  51  87 /  30  10   5  10   0
Borger TX                  85  64  90  62  92 /  50  30  10  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              87  57  90  55  91 /  40  20   5  10   5
Canyon TX                  85  59  89  57  91 /  50  30   5  10  10
Clarendon TX               82  61  88  63  91 /  50  40  20  20  20
Dalhart TX                 87  53  87  50  89 /  30  10   5  10   5
Guymon OK                  85  57  88  55  91 /  40  20   5  10   5
Hereford TX                85  57  89  56  91 /  50  20   5  10   5
Lipscomb TX                81  65  88  62  92 /  40  40  20  20  20
Pampa TX                   79  60  87  59  90 /  50  40  20  10  20
Shamrock TX                81  65  88  64  91 /  40  40  30  20  40
Wellington TX              83  65  90  65  92 /  40  50  30  20  50

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/11



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