Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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947
FXUS64 KAMA 161733
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1133 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.AVIATION...
Skies have cleared at Amarillo/KAMA with snow ending at least for
now at Guymon/KGUY. Still seeing some wrap around deformation zone
snow showers in the vicinity of Dalhart/KDHT but warming cloud tops
and upper low pulling away will result in some higher MVFR cigs there
in early afternoon. Conditional probablity of some fog and low vsbys
late tonight at all terminals after midnight but with lower
confidence, will not include for now. James

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 433 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low is currently moving northward across the Panhandles. This
low produced a band of heavy snow along the western I-40 corridor
earlier in the night which brought 2 to 4 inches of snow to that
area. This band has since weakened considerably as the upper low
moves further north and we have already seen clearing in the
southeast and far southwest.

Hi-res models shows the ongoing snow will drift northwards through
the early morning hours and mostly exiting/dissipating the
Panhandles by noon. There are a few models which show light snow
persisting over the far northwestern corner of the area, but think
that amounts will not be significant should this occur. As such, will
likely allow the Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning
expire at 6am. Storm total snow amounts have generally been highest
across the southern Texas Panhandles where 1 to 3 inches fell (with a
maximum of 4.5 inches in Vega) while the northern Panhandles will
likely struggle to reach the inch mark once precip has ended.

As the upper low continues to progress east of the Panhandles on
Tuesday, we will remain under southwest flow aloft as another
low/shortwave moves out of northwestern Mexico. Medium range models
differ in respect to possible precip chances with this low. The
GFS/NAM keep precip just to our south and east while the ECMWF brings
a swath of rain across the southeast. Have stayed on the dry side of
solutions, but an isolated storm can`t be ruled out. As this low
lifts across the area around the middle of the work week, we will see
two more upper closed low take aim at the Panhandles. The first of
the two lows is expected late Thursday night into early Friday
morning. We could see some light precip across the OK Panhandle with
this first low, but there are other solutions that show us being dry
slotted. The second low is expected early in the weekend. There is a
bit of differences between medium range models on the exact track of
this low. AS of now have introduced low end pops for this system, but
expect changes to p-type and amount.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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