Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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996
FXUS64 KAMA 202243
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
543 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
South to southwest flow will continue to draw up monsoonal
moisture to the Panhandles. We already have scattered showers
developing across the southern and central Panhandles. Main
concern with these storms would be strong winds. Hail will be
possible, but only expect hail sizes to be small. Models continue
the southwest flow with some embedded shortwaves late this evening
and into the overnight hours. Therefore, showers and storms are
expected to continue during the overnight and early morning
period, across the western and possibly the central Panhandles.

Now for the Solar Eclipse tomorrow.

The western zones will still be under the influence from the
previous system and therefore expect overcast to mostly cloudy
skies. Weak high pressure currently near the San Antonio area,
will become more suppressed with time, and flow will start to
transition to a more west southwest direction. This will occur as
we progress through the day on Monday. While the bulk of the
moisture and precipitation is still expected over the western and
possibly central Panhandles, significant enough cloud cover is
still possible anywhere over the Panhandles during the peak
eclipse time. Right now the forecast stands for mostly cloudy to
cloudy skies for any areas due north and or west of Armstrong
county. East and southeast of Armstrong county will get you closer
to a more optimal viewing area although confidence in clear skies
is not high. It`s possible that areas just south of Randall and
Armstrong County will have limited cloud cover, but right now
only one piece of guidance suggests south of Amarillo may be in a
dry enough area to get most of the low cloud cover out during the
optimal viewing hours. However this same guidance suggests that we
might have some thin mid and high clouds which may not seem like
a cloudy day as far as brightness of the sun goes, but could be
enough of a nuisance for eclipse viewing. Right now it looks like
the Childress area may be a good starting point for the day and
moving south or southeast from that location should continue to be
more beneficial for viewing. Keep in mind the further south you
travel the further away you will be traveling from the path of
totality and thusly sun will be covered less by the moon. If you
remain between the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Dallas/Fort Worth area
the projected eclipse coverage will be in the 70-80 percent range.

Post eclipse forecast.

As flow becomes more westerly cloud coverage will continue to
spread across the Panhandles and late afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return. The suppressed high will
attempt to rebuild over the Mexico, New Mexico, Arizona border and
change our westerly flow to northwest. A large scale longwave
trof will approach the northern Great Lakes area, and a positively
tilted shortwave with a cold front associated. Models are
differing with the time of arrival and the area, northern/southern
Panhandles. But the forcing associated with the shortwave, and
the strong moisture advection near the same area, along with low
shear values aloft, suggest the potential for a line of training
storms to possibly form. This could lead to a flooding/flash
flooding event. Timing and position will need to be monitored to
see if further action will be needed to address this system on
Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday.

Northwest flow will return through Thursday and various
embedded shortwaves will allow for our typical summertime
afternoon and evening convection to occur. Towards the weekend the
flow may begin to shift westerly as a low off the southern
California coast begins to break down and moves east across the
southern states. This in turn will aid in the break down of the
high pressure and northwest flow will transition to a more
westerly flow. Showers and storms will still be possible as ample
moisture is still expected over the Panhandles.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period with
increasing high and mid-level clouds through tonight. Can`t
completely rule out some areas of MVFR/IFR mainly across the
western Panhandles early Monday morning as showers and lower
ceilings push into the area in response to an upper level
disturbance. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this
afternoon and overnight, with highest confidence across the
western Panhandles, so included prob30 at KDHT. Amendments may be
needed if an isolated thunderstorm is able to develop this
afternoon near a terminal. Otherwise, south-southwest winds will
be gusty this afternoon, but should subside to around 10 knots
overnight.

Ward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  88  66  86  63 /  20  20  30  30  50
Beaver OK                  71  92  69  89  62 /  20  20  40  30  30
Boise City OK              64  82  62  82  60 /  40  40  20  30  30
Borger TX                  70  90  69  88  65 /  20  20  40  30  40
Boys Ranch TX              67  88  67  88  64 /  50  30  30  30  40
Canyon TX                  66  87  66  86  64 /  30  20  30  30  50
Clarendon TX               69  90  69  88  66 /  10  10  20  40  50
Dalhart TX                 65  85  64  86  62 /  60  40  20  20  40
Guymon OK                  68  88  66  87  62 /  20  30  30  20  30
Hereford TX                65  86  66  86  64 /  40  30  30  30  50
Lipscomb TX                71  92  70  89  64 /  20  20  40  30  40
Pampa TX                   68  90  67  88  64 /  20  20  30  30  40
Shamrock TX                70  93  71  90  67 /  10  10  30  40  50
Wellington TX              71  94  72  92  69 /   5  10  20  30  50

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/7



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