Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 151130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
530 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.AVIATION...12Z TAFs...LIFR to IFR conditions is expected to
occur through Monday morning.  Freezing rain has ended at KDHT,
while KAMA should change over to rain AFT 15/14Z and KGUY AFT
15/17Z. Moderate to heavy rain showers, with embedded thunderstorms,
will move across the region as an upper low passes southeast of the
area. Periods of fog or mist will be likely at all terminals, with
best chances at KDHT.  As the low passes to the east, colder air
will filter in and change all precip to snow AFT 16/00Z with
freezing fog possible.  After the TAF period, clearing conditions
should occur Monday afternoon.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 525 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

The well advertised freezing rain and ice storm event are well
underway in the OK and TX Panhandles. Largest accumulations of ice on
the order of one half of an inch or more have occurred in the Ice
Storm warning area with generally less than one quarter of an inch
ice accumulation in the Freezing Rain Advisory area. In addition,
several reports of power outages along with tree damage have been
observed. Expect rain and freezing rain with embedded tstms to
continue this morning across most of the area as temperatures hover
near freezing. Current winter weather highlights will remain intact
until expiration at Noon CST today.

The strong, closed upper level low currenly located over nwrn Mexico
will move east northeast to near extreme sern NM by late this
afternoon, then track northeast into nwrn OK by 12Z Monday. All
numerical weather models are in decent agreement on the projected
path of this storm system and were accepted. As temperatures climb
above freezing later today, expect periods of rain and tstms with
potentially heavy rain at times. A few of the stronger storms that
develop may be capable of producing small hail.

Then as the cold core of the upper level low pressure system tracks
just to the southeast of the fcst area tonight into early Monday, a
variety of winter precipitation is anticipated, including light
sleet, light snow, and a brief period of light freezing rain psbly
across the nern zones. The greatest threat for accumulating snows
will be across the nwrn half of the fcst area, generally along and nw
of highway 60. At this time...highest snowfall totals on the order of
3 to 4 inches will likely be in the far nwrn counties with lower
amounts of 1 to 2 inches along and northwest of highway 60. Less than
one inch of snowfall accumulation is foreseen in the southeast third
of the TX Panhandle. Additional winter weather highlights will likely
become necessary for tonight across parts of the OK and TX Panhandles,
and will defer that decision to the next shift. Would like to allow
current freezing rain and ice storm highlights to play out first.

Dry weather and moderating temperatures are then expected for Tuesday
through Friday. Medium range models suggest another upper level low
pressure system may impact the srn high plains on Saturday. However,
they continue to disagree on the important details such as projected
path and strength. Therefore, have gone with a model consensus
solution for this fcst pckg pending better agreement.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST today for the following zones:

     Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...

OK...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST today for the following zones:

     Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for the following
     zones: Cimarron.



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