Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 182300 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
600 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016
An isolated shower or thunderstorm may try to make a run at the DHT
and GUY TAF sites this evening...but they will be too isolated to
mention in this forecast. A cold front is expected to move into the
DHT and GUY TAF sites by late Friday afternoon...so have inserted a
wind shift to the northwest there. More showers and thunderstorms may
form along the cold front...but again will not mention them in this
forecast as confidence is not high on one of these affecting a TAF
site. Skies are expected to remain VFR.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 521 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/
For tonight, retained slgt chc pops for nwrn zones in the event isold
showers and storms manage to make their way into that area from nern
NM based on current radar imagery and favorable steering flow.
All short range models have held up the next cold frontal passage
slightly. Have brought the initial wshft thru the wrn and cntrl OK
Panhandle and nwrn TX Panhandle late Friday afternoon, then thru the
rest of the fcst area Friday evening and night. It appears that
Friday evening and night will be the best opportunity for highest
pops areawide as the cold front moves sewd across the area. Have
raised pops to 50 percent for all zones durg this time period.
Like the previous cold front which zipped thru the fcst area about
one week ago, this next cold front will likely behave in the same
manner in that the atmosphere will dry out and stabilize somewhat
behind it, and this is reflected in numerical weather models. Have
lowered pops to non-mentionable values across all of the fcst area
for Saturday in the post frontal atmosphere, then only incorporated
slgt chc pops Saturday night across far wrn zones. Removed pops for
Sunday and Sunday night as all models maintain a dry atmopshere over
the area with little moisture return.
Moisture is then progged to begin returning to the area from the
south on Monday as the overall upper air pattern becomes more
favorable for moisture transport into the region. The combination of
minor upper level shortwave trofs traversing the srn and cntrl plains
plus adequate moisture and daytime heat suggest slgt chc to chc pops
for the region from next Monday through Thursday.