000
FXUS64 KAMA 200820
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
320 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON
THURSDAY TO ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS
INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO BY LATE SATURDAY. HAVE RETAINED CURRENT POPS
STRUCTURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO OR NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE WILL
HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FOUR COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS
APPROACH 15 TO 20 MPH AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS EITHER THE 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                82  50  77  54  88 /   5  10   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  78  50  79  52  84 /  20  20   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              73  46  75  48  85 /  20  20   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  82  53  80  57  88 /  10  10   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              81  49  78  53  89 /  10  10   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  82  50  77  53  88 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               89  54  81  56  88 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 76  45  76  48  88 /  10  20   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  77  49  80  51  88 /  20  20   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                82  49  77  52  89 /   5   5   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                81  52  79  53  84 /  20  20   5   5   5
PAMPA TX                   81  51  78  55  85 /  10  10   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                88  55  81  56  87 /  20  10   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              93  57  83  57  90 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/11