Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 010335 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1035 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN THEY WILL HEAD EAST. DHT
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A THUNDERSTORM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT THEY LOOK TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
THIS FORECAST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. CURRENTLY...THERE IS
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY GET CLOSE TO THE GUY
TAF SITE...BUT THINK WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND THEN THEY
WILL DECREASE AND BACK SOME TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
AGAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE AND GET GUSTY BY LATE
MORNING ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING EAST AWAY FROM
THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
TONIGHT...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
TUESDAY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY HELPING TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH AND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND OTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THIS SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MEANDER ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO
INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/12



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