Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 131039
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
539 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL COME
AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE ADDED SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO WARM THE PANHANDLES UP SOME 15 TO 20
DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY/S AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM ANOTHER 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
TODAY/S HIGHS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD FORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MAY HELP TO PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW
ADDED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES. SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE CAUGHT UNDER THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...SO IT WILL
ALMOST LOOK LIKE A LATE SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH DAILY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION MOVING THIS WAY...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS.

HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CONFIDENCE
IN THE MODELS DECREASES.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND THE ELEVATED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15





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