Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 301630
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1130 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE THROUGH HAS PROGRESSED OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST MOST OF THE FORCING/ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE PANHANDLES...AND
INCREASING SIGNALS FOR MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ARE INDICATED.

ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
OVERALL TRENDS SUPPORT DECREASING POPS/QPF AND A REDUCED RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING.

A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION OF ISOLATED STRONGER CONVECTION
MAY PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
WHERE 1300 J/KG SBCAPE MAY LINGER. HOWEVER MOST INDICATIONS TREND
TOWARD A REDUCED THREAT.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
MOST CONVECTIVE ECHOES HAVE CLEARED ALL OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME.  RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS.  COLD FRONT WILL PASS
NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 13Z...REACHING KAMA AROUND 15Z.  SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT.  STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

AN MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
BEST ORGANIZATION EXTENDS FROM THE OK PANHANDLE/FAR NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND WESTERN KS...WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TX PANHANDLE.
FORCING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THIS
CONVECTION...WITH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATTENDANT TO A SOUTHERLY LLJ WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED TO 30-40KT AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT. A SURFACE FRONT WAS
DRAPED FROM SOUTHEAST CO ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTHWEST
OK...WITH A TIGHTENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTING IN
PRETTY GOOD LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS FORCING IS ACTING ON AMPLE MOISTURE...WITH A COMBINATION
OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAVING
BUMPED PWATS INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS /1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE/. THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE BODY OF OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DECENT FORWARD
PROPAGATION WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT PRETTY ISOLATED
FOR OUR AREA DESPITE SOME GOOD RAIN RATES WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION. DEBATED SHAVING OFF SOME COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS DALLAM COUNTY...WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE /ALTHOUGH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE/
GIVEN CONTINUED MID-LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
FORCING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES/AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES MAY INCREASE TO
JUST OVER 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30-35 KTS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARS OUT. CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CO/NM LATER TODAY IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO PROPAGATE INTO MOST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT GIVEN THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE /DESPITE A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/. HOWEVER WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN CWA THURSDAY MORNING...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT
ABOARD A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH
THIS TIME. HOWEVER BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EDGES EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
ANY CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN TOWARD
MID NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...IT WILL REMAIN COOL THE NEXT FEW DAYS
GIVEN THE CLOUDS...RAIN...AND REINFORCING FRONTAL SURGE. WE/LL START
TO SEE A SLOW WARM-UP LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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