Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 010333 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
START TO EDGE INTO THE GUY TAF SITE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING TAKING THE
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST. THIS FRONT MAY BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF THIS FAR OUT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER SOME NEAR THE FRONT
AT DHT AND GUY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES. A
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO KGUY AROUND 18Z TOMORROW BUT WONT
MAKE IT INTO KDHT BEFORE 00Z. PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SO FOR THIS PERIOD THE FOCUS IS MOSTLY ON WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LITE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES UNTIL 09Z WHEN THEY PICK
UP AND THEN START GUSTING AROUND 13Z TO 15Z. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH KGUY...WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
KDHT WINDS WILL BACK TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND CALM A BIT.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM
EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
KEEP OUR REGION DRY TODAY. SOME CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREAS.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE UNCERTAIN AND A FURTHER
SOUTHWARD PUSH MAY OCCUR IF COLD POOL GENERATION FROM CONVECTION TO
OUR NORTH IS EXTENSIVE LATE WEDNESDAY.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION WERE RETAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS ARE
STILL NOT VERY CLEAR SO WAS NOT ABLE TO ADD MUCH MORE DETAIL TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER
DEFINE PERIODS OF HIGHEST CHANCES. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE AS WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AGAIN. KEPT SATURDAY DRY BECAUSE OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. WITH STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
POTENTIALLY FAVORING TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION TO ENTER AT LEAST
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...INTRODUCED NEAR CLIMO
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BRB/HL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/16




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