Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 252122
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
422 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE TX AND OK PNHDLS. BENIGN WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CO AND THE CNTRL PLAINS...AGAIN
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE WELL INTO OK ON THIS DAY
SO NO POPS. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG SW
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

ON THURSDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE SWRN STATES BY LATE IN THE DAY...
THEN HEAD EWD ACROSS AZ...NM...AND OUR FCST AREA BY LATE FRI NIGHT.
GENERALLY UTILIZED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY
...AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF FRI NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ALSO DEPICT A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THRU THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY
THURSDAY. LINGERING SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
EXITS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE WEAKER STORM
SYSTEMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SLGT CHC POPS AS PER MODEL
CONSENSUS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND HAVE INCORPORATED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS
DURG THIS TIME FRAME AS SEEN BY MODEL CONSENSUS VALUES. THE
COMBINATION OF PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...CLOUD COVER...AND AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE SOME LOCATIONS REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS FOR
WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON TUESDAY...FINE GRASSY FUELS
ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES HAVE GREENED UP FOLLOWING RECENT HEAVY
RAIN EVENTS. THEREFORE...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO END ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES BY 10 PM THIS EVENING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY
DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. NEITHER
ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                50  80  45  76  43 /   0   5   5   0   5
BEAVER OK                  51  82  44  72  41 /   0   5   5   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              43  71  38  68  38 /   0   5   5   0   5
BORGER TX                  56  81  48  76  46 /   0   5   5   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              48  77  43  74  42 /   0   5   5   0   5
CANYON TX                  49  79  45  77  42 /   0   5   5   0   5
CLARENDON TX               54  83  48  78  46 /   0   5   5   0   5
DALHART TX                 45  75  39  72  39 /   0   5   5   0   5
GUYMON OK                  49  78  42  71  41 /   0   5   5   0   5
HEREFORD TX                48  77  43  75  42 /   0   5   5   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                53  83  46  74  43 /   0   5   5   0   5
PAMPA TX                   53  82  46  75  44 /   0   5   5   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                55  85  49  78  48 /   0   5   5   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              57  86  50  80  49 /   0   5   5   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$



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