Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 240933
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD POSE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATEST STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER
WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST CO EARLY THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM A
LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN A LOW STRATUS
DECK AND SOME PATCHY FOG.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE PARENT UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE PANHANDLES...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-
LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE AXIS OF A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET
COULD INITIATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM/THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...STRONGLY SUSPECT THE DRYLINE WILL LAG FARTHER WEST THAN
PROGGED BY MODELS GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN AND VERY WET
GROUNDS...AND WILL LIKELY END UP BEING MORE DIFFUSE THAN SHOWN IN
MODELS FOR THESE SAME REASONS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
IN THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN SUPPORTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK. IN FACT...THE AREA MAY BE EXPERIENCING WEAK
SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LIMIT STORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE. A LITTLE STRONGER FORCING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER TODAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT WHEN
COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. NO
ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT PWATS WILL
STILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE
STORMS...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE FLOODING PROBLEMS BUT LIKELY ON A VERY
LOCALIZED BASIS.

LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON MEMORIAL DAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH. TIMING
OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PLACE THE SLIGHTLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES...BUT HARD TO RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM ABOUT ANYWHERE. A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO
RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A STILL ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL AROUND...COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL COME DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY A DRYING
TREND BY THE WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN OPEN AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE LAST FEW.

KB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN AT BANKFULL LEVELS TODAY. THEY HAVE ALL DROPPED BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...AND DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SECONDARY
CRESTS...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE OF A MUCH MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED RISES OR AGGRAVATE
FLOODING ISSUES ON A LOCALIZED BASIS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
OR FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                78  51  79  53  78 /  20  10  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  75  54  80  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              74  50  74  51  75 /  20  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  79  55  79  55  80 /  20  10  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              79  50  79  52  80 /  10  10  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  78  51  78  53  79 /  20  10  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               79  52  78  55  81 /  20  10  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 77  49  77  51  76 /  10  10  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  76  52  77  53  77 /  20  20  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                80  51  78  52  80 /  10  10  20  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                73  56  79  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   75  52  77  53  77 /  20  10  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                75  56  79  56  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              79  57  80  58  83 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/08




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