Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 171718
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE DIAL TO END
AT AN SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME
LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP FOR KAMA AND KGUY BUT IT SHOULDN`T BE
SUFFICIENT TO LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES. JUST BEYOND THIS TAF ISSUANCE
CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE AT KAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UPDATE...
MADE VERY MINOR CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURE CURVE CLOSER TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA TODAY...THEN SLIDE EAST SATURDAY. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TONIGHT AND THEN APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...BUT WILL THEN REBUILD BACK OVER THE
PANHANDLES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL THEN
LIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY AND THEN
WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE TUESDAY AS IT WEAKENS AND MERGES WITH A
LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN STATES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH AND THEN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES.

COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS...AND THEN A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/01




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