000
FXUS64 KAMA 142202
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
502 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
CURRENTLY OVER SERN AZ WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EWD INTO FAR W TX BY
12Z SAT. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE PRETTY MEAGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA AS SEEN IN DEWPOINT FIELDS. EXPECT SOME RECOVERY IN MOISTURE
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL MODELS HAVE COME IN MUCH DRIER
WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT BY LOWERING POPS ALL ZONES
TONIGHT. USED THE 10 POP RULE ACROSS SW AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL AND 15 TO
20 POPS OVER SERN TX PNHDL. LEFT OK AND NRN TX PNHDLS DRY FOR TONIGHT.

AFTER THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM PASSES US BY TO THE SOUTH...ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF PROGGED TO DIG SWD DOWN THE
ERN SIDE OF THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES...EVENTUALLY ENDING UP FURTHER
DOWNSTATE BY 12Z SUN. MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON WHETHER MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SECOND STORM SYSTEM OR NOT. HAVE GONE WITH
MODEL MAJORITY SOLUTIONS. SLGT CHC SHOWERS AND TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON
ALL ZONES...THEN CHC POPS SAT EVENING WITH HIGHEST VALUES SRN TX
PNHDL AND LOWEST OK PNHDL. THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AS
WELL...WITH ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TO MATERIALIZE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BLOW
AGAIN STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME SORT OF WIND HIGHLIGHT MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY DURG PART OF THIS TIME PERIOD. COOLER
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY ALSO EXPECTED.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR NEXT MONDAY THRU NEXT FRIDAY WITH A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FCST SOMETIME TUESDAY...LEADING TO A SETBACK IN TEMPS
FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
NEAR 20 PERCENT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...
TUESDAY... AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS ACROSS MOST OF THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ALONG WITH FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 20
PERCENT.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  64  31  52  31 /  10  20  50   0   0
BEAVER OK                  36  64  32  51  28 /   5  20  30   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              34  60  28  52  28 /   5  20  30   0   0
BORGER TX                  40  64  34  54  35 /   5  20  50   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              36  64  30  53  30 /   5  20  50   0   0
CANYON TX                  36  64  31  52  30 /  10  20  50   0   0
CLARENDON TX               38  66  35  54  32 /  20  20  50   0   0
DALHART TX                 33  64  28  52  26 /   5  20  40   0   0
GUYMON OK                  35  64  31  52  28 /   5  20  30   0   0
HEREFORD TX                35  65  30  52  29 /  10  20  50   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                37  65  33  51  29 /   5  20  40   0   0
PAMPA TX                   37  65  33  52  31 /   5  20  50   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                40  65  37  53  31 /  20  20  50   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              41  66  39  55  33 /  20  20  50   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$