Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 252049
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
249 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH MAINTAINS A DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DEAMPLIFIES AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONTINUED DRY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT FLIRTING WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND WITH FUELS RECOVERING FROM
RECENT PRECIPITATION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED OR VERY SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ERC VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WILL OPT TO NOT ISSUE A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT AT THIS POINT. WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
ON THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH OR POSSIBLY
HIGHER WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES EACH OF THOSE THREE DAYS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                27  53  32  64  37 /   0   0   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  26  52  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              26  52  31  68  34 /   0   0   0   5   5
BORGER TX                  29  54  33  66  38 /   0   0   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              27  54  31  67  34 /   0   0   0   5   5
CANYON TX                  28  53  31  64  36 /   0   0   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               31  56  32  63  37 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 24  52  29  66  32 /   0   0   0   5   5
GUYMON OK                  26  52  30  67  34 /   0   0   0   5   5
HEREFORD TX                28  55  30  65  35 /   0   0   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                31  54  30  63  36 /   0   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   28  52  32  64  37 /   0   0   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                31  56  32  61  35 /   0   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              33  58  34  62  36 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

01/11




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