Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 311735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

18Z TAFS...Outside of a possibility of MVFR clouds at KDHT for the
next few hours, all terminals should remain VFR outside of
convection today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop this afternoon and persist through Wednesday morning
across the Panhandles. Have the best estimate for timing in the
prevailing groups, but low confidence on how long convection will
stick around Wednesday morning. Have slowly ended it from north to
south but keep KAMA with prevailing showers through the end of the
TAF cycle. Winds will vary on either side of east and remain less
than 15kts outside of the influence of thunderstorms. Ceilings will
likely vary between MVFR and IFR tomorrow morning dependent upon
lingering convection. Have kept MVFR for now though IFR ceilings are
possible especially if widespread convection has ended.



.Prev Discussion... /Issued 620 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

Continued convection around the terminals and expected redevelopment
of convection later on today will keep confidence levels low for the
12z TAF cycle. All terminals are currently VFR with KGUY still
reporting light rain. There is a chance for ceilings to diminish for
KGUY as storms from Kansas move into the Oklahoma Panhandle this
morning. Have stayed on the optimistic side but amendments will be
needed if lower ceilings do move into KGUY. KAMA and KDHT should
remain VFR through the morning hours, but a brief wind shift due to
an outflow boundary is expected for KAMA around 12z. Surface winds for
KGUY should remain from a general easterly direction today while kAMA
and KDHT start off from the south before shifting out of the east for
the latter half of this TAF cycle.

Another round of convection is anticipated for all terminals around
and after 18z today. Have inserted prevailing thunder mention for
each terminal but kept conditions VFR. There is a possibility for
degraded flight categories should an intense downpour move directly
over the terminals with IFR to LIFR conditions possible. Overnight,
KGUY will likely be cleared of convection while KAMA and KDHT retain
chances through the end of this TAF cycle.

Prev Discussion... /Issued 317 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

Plenty of low level moisture combined with several boundaries,
including a cold front, instability and turning of winds with height
will set the stage for more shower and thunderstorm development
today and tonight.

An elongated, positively tilted, upper level trough from
northwestern Mexico into southern Colorado will continue to affect
our area through Thursday as it slowly drifts across our area.
Several upper level short wave troughs will move through the parent
trough over our area. The best chances of widespread rain will be
across the panhandles through tonight. Then the better chances will
slowly shift southward into the southern Texas Panhandle by Wednesday
into Thursday.

A few thunderstorms may become severe through Thursday, but an
organized severe weather outbreak does not look too likely at this

An upper level ridge will build across the southwest U.S. Friday
through the end of this forecast. This will put the panhandles in a
north to northwest flow aloft. This flow may allow mountain
convection to head this way. For now have kept the forecast dry, as
the flow aloft looks weak and there is some question on whether the
convection can make it into our area before the loss of daytime

Temperatures will be below normal with all of the rain and cloud
cover the next few days. Temperatures will then warm up to near
normal by early next week.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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