000
FXUS64 KAMA 211713
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1213 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to begin the forecast period. Chances for
convection and low clouds will keep the confidence low beyond the
20Z-22Z hour. Convection is expected to develop across the
southeastern Colorado/northwest New Mexico before moving southeast
towards the terminals. KDHT and KGUY will likely be the first
terminals impacted by these storms starting as early as 22Z. KAMA
will be later to see the convection more after 06Z. Should any
storms impact the terminals directly low ceiling and visibility
will be a possibility. As convection moves away from the
terminals low clouds will then persist at the terminals until
mixing increases during the late morning hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 254 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The panhandles will be on the south and southwest side of a large
upper level trough over the central U.S. for the next couple of
days. The west to northwest flow across the panhandles will bring
several short wave troughs across the region through Monday night.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move this way from the
mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico this
afternoon. A short wave trough will help to bring the showers and
storms across much of the panhandles tonight. Some of the storms may
get strong to marginally severe with large hail and damaging winds
the main threats.

Another short wave trough will move through the panhandles Monday
and another will move through later Monday night. This should keep
the chances of showers and thunderstorms going across the region.
Some of the storms on Monday afternoon and evening could become
severe if the instability can be realized. This will be conditional
on how much daytime heating we will get. However, the upper level
dynamics will also be increasing on Monday afternoon, so this might
be able to overcome the lack of any daytime heating. The models are
not in agreement on the timing of these various short wave troughs
that move through the region and their impact on our rain chances.
So, our pops will likely change for Monday and Monday night.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move south of our area on
Tuesday with another strong cold front. By Tuesday night there may
be some showers and thunderstorms that clip the southwest Texas
Panhandle. This activity will be moving this way from the New Mexico
mountains so it is uncertain if they can make it into our area.

Wednesday and beyond will remain dry. Upper level heights become
more zonal and most of the storm systems will miss us to the north.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

14/11