Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 270327 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1027 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.AVIATION...
Winds should stay below 12 knots through this forecast. Skies are
expected to remain VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop Wednesday afternoon, but coverage remains too
sparse to mention them in this forecast. Strong gusty winds and
brief heavy rain will be the main threats with the stronger
thunderstorms if they develop.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 605 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

AVIATION...
An outflow boundary moving through AMA will keep the winds up for a
few hours and then the winds will veer some and decrease before
midnight. Otherwise, winds will be light at all sites through this
forecast. Some afternoon cumulus clouds should form on Wednesday
afternoon. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms will also be
possible by late in the afternoon, but coverage looks too isolated to
mention in the forecast. Skies should remain VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level 594 decameter high pressure system sitting over the 4
corners region will continue to provide east to northeast flow across
the Panhandles. As we go through the rest of the work week, a 500
hPa northwesterly flow will return to the region as a low amplitude
meridional flow returns to the central CONUS. In-conjunction with a
south to southeast surface flow that will bring higher Td`s to the
region, latest 26/12Z shows diurnally driven convection with any
localized convergent boundaries across the Panhandles with the best
chances across the eastern Panhandle with the highest moisture values.
Some of the models are hinting at some more substantial QPF for the
eastern OK Panhandle and northeastern TX Panhandle as a shortwave
trough over western KS near s surface stationary boundary develops a
region of mid level PVA that will move SE in the NW flow and provide
an enhanced chance of precipitation in the eastern Panhandles late
Thursday night into Friday morning. SBCAPE values from latest 12Z
model data does show a range between 1000-1550 J/Kg, however, 0-6 km
shear is very limited. Further updates will be made to the forecast
as we get closer to the event. Otherwise, as we go Friday afternoon into
the weekend, the upper level high pressure will move east over our
region bring tranquil weather back into the region. Temperatures will
continue to remain above average as we go through the next several
days.

LFM

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

15/10


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