000
FXUS64 KAMA 160421 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1121 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES OF MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EARLIER
FORECAST.  SOUTH SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND TO SOUTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 30
KT RANGE BEGINNING AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY AT KAMA.  MEANWHILE...COLD
FRONT ARRIVES AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 14Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY.  COLD
FRONT SLIPS INTO KAMA AREA AROUND 19Z...WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
TO EAST NORTHEAST.

EAST AND NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONGER THAN
USUAL DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL WITH
INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF.  MID-LEVEL OVERCAST EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING.  MAY SEE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
DURING THE EVENING.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A MINIMAL AMOUNT
OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.  SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 14Z TO 15Z
WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WIND SHIFT TO
NORTH NORTHWEST...WITH STEADY VEERING OF WINDS TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AT KAMA.  COLD FRONT MAY
STALL JUST NORTH OF KAMA...WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BACKING TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WILL FORECAST THIS SCENARIO WITH
THIS ISSUANCE AND REEVALUATE BEFORE NEXT FORECAST.

EXPECT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT
ALL TERMINALS.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALLOWED US
TO WARM INTO THE 60 WHEN WE WERE HOVERING IN THE 30S AND 40S THIS
TIME YESTERDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TOMORROW WHICH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN IN THE 60S WHILE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SURGE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STILL HOLDS THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIP AS ALL LIQUID. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING AN END TO OUR PRECIP CHANCES.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPS AGAIN. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LIFT
ALOFT ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EASTER MORNING TO HELP PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PANHANDLES WILL BE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES
EASTER NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD END OUR RAIN CHANCES. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY...BUT THE
MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE STRENGTH OR THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT BEFORE 20-FT WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 15 MPH. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHILE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/09