000
FXUS64 KAMA 221957
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
257 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE LINED
UP JUST EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BE FOUND LINED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY.

THIS MEANS THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO OUR AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THEN BROUGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE
SURFACE DETAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

FIRST...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE WHEN CONVECTION INITIATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR ON JUST EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH
THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD TO ADD TO THE FUEL. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST.

FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON.

BY MEMORIAL DAY...THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
BY THE AFTERNOON...SO THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THESE
AREAS.

WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP EDGE THE DRYLINE EAST OF OUR
AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  83  60  81  60 /  10  50  30  30  30
BEAVER OK                  54  75  59  84  63 /  10  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              49  73  58  82  59 /  10  20  20  20  30
BORGER TX                  58  80  59  83  64 /  10  30  30  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              56  87  64  87  63 /  10  30  30  30  30
CANYON TX                  57  86  61  84  61 /  10  50  30  30  30
CLARENDON TX               61  83  64  80  63 /  10  50  40  30  20
DALHART TX                 51  82  58  83  59 /  10  30  20  30  30
GUYMON OK                  51  78  59  81  63 /  10  20  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                57  90  61  84  59 /  10  30  30  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                56  76  61  80  65 /  10  20  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   57  77  58  79  61 /  10  30  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                56  81  61  79  65 /  10  50  40  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              58  87  64  81  64 /  10  50  50  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/15