Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 231736

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
136 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 03N20W to
03S32W to 03S43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is within 150 nm of the ITCZ axis and monsoon trough
axis east of 16W.



A cold front extends from the Tampa Bay area near 28N83W to New
Orleans near 30N89W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are north of
this front. A weakening high pressure area of 1022 mb is centered
near 28N91W and supports mainly moderate anticyclonic winds over
the majority of the Gulf basin south of the front. A dissipating
thermal surface trough extends from 22N94W to 18N94W and supports
fresh northeast winds west of the trough. Dry air and subsidence
is maintaining fair conditions over the Gulf today. Over the next
24 hours the front will dissipate. Strong high pressure over the
eastern United States will spread fresh to strong east to
southeast winds over the Gulf tonight into Friday.


Dry air is inhibiting thunderstorm activity over the majority of
the Caribbean today. Mainly moderate east to northeast trades
prevail, except for locally fresh trades along the Colombia coast,
the Windward Passage, and surrounding waters. An Atlantic surface
trough that extends to near the Mona Passage supports scattered to
numerous showers across the Mona Passage to just south of Puerto
Rico. Over the next 24 hours winds will increase over the
northwest Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the region.
Otherwise, little change is expected.


A surface trough over the Atlantic waters to the Mona Passage, and
a stationary front over the Turks and Caicos, continues to
support scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
mainly over the northern portion of the island today. This pattern
will likely remain in place through tonight. A cold front will
approach the region Friday. Strong high pressure will build north
of the area this weekend with strong easterly winds expected over
the island, and large swell along the Atlantic coastline.


A cold front extends from 31N63W to central Florida near 27N80W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the
front. A stationary front extends from 31N56W to 22N72W with a
pair of pre-frontal troughs that extend from 29N57W to 25N61W and
from 24N66W to 19N68W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are north of 19N and west of 57W, to within 90 nm
northeast of the stationary front. High pressure centered near the
Azores dominates the central and eastern Atlantic with moderate
to fresh trade winds. Over the next 24 hours the cold front will
overtake the stationary front. Strong high pressure north of the
cold front will support strong east to northeast winds.

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