Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 122248

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
548 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

The regional pressure gradient between ridging anchored across the
SW North Atlc...including the Florida peninsula...and lower
pressure across northern South America is forecast to support near
gale to gale force E-NE winds tonight into Monday morning. See
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
04N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N19W to 02N24W to 01N35W to the Equator near 40W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 10W-20W...S of 07N
between 23W-43W.


Water vapor imagery indicates mostly dry air aloft within a middle
to upper level ridge anchored over the basin. Conditions remain
fairly tranquil at the surface as a ridge anchored by a 1024 mb
high centered near 27N83W continues to provide mostly gentle to
moderate E-SE winds. The ridge is expected to gradually dissipate
as the next frontal boundary is forecast to emerge off the Texas
and Louisiana coasts by early Monday morning. The front will
provide a brief period of N-NE winds across the northern
waters...then quickly rebound into moderate to fresh SE winds as
an area of low pressure develops across northern Mexico Monday
night into Tuesday. Tuesday night...the cold front associated with
the developed low pressure will emerge off the Texas coast
introducing strong to near gale N-NW winds across the western

An upper level trough axis is noted on water vapor imagery over
the central Atlc near 24N49W that stretches SW to a broad base
over the NE Caribbean. The front supported by this troughing is
analyzed as a stationary front from 22N56W to 19N72W across
Hispaniola. Lingering low-level moisture and cloudiness extends
across Hispaniola SW to Jamaica then to the coast of Honduras and
the Gulf of Honduras. Widely scattered showers are occurring
generally within 120 nm either side of a line from 21N60W to
19N72W to 16N88W. Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean is
under mostly moderate to fresh trades outside of the Special
Features area off the coast of Colombia. The trades are expected
to gradually weaken into gentle to moderate breeze levels by late
Monday as high pressure anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc

A stationary front extends along 19N/20N between 65W-72W
providing focus for low-level moisture convergence and widely
scattered showers across the island and adjacent coastal waters
this evening. The front will be slow to dissipate through Monday
providing an increased probability of showers and possible
isolated tstms through Monday night.

Much of the SW North Atlc region is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 28N69W
providing overall fair weather and tranquil conditions this
evening. To the east...water vapor imagery indicates a weak middle
to upper level trough over the central Atlc supporting a 1015 mb
low centered near 29N47W and the associated cold front extending
from the low SW to 22N56W where it becomes stationary to the NE
coast of Hispaniola near 19N70W. The front lies within the
southern periphery of the aforementioned ridging and is providing
focus for widely scattered showers within 90 nm either side of
the boundary. Scattered showers and isolated showers are also
occurring to the NE of the low center from 29N-32N between 40W-
45W. Finally...a complex area of low pressure focused on a 988 mb
low centered near 36N08W extends a cold front into the discussion
area near 32N09W to 25N15W to 24N22W. Fresh to strong SW to W
winds are occurring in the vicinity of 32N10W off the coast of
Morocco. Otherwise...a ridge prevails across the remainder of the
eastern Atlc anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 25N37W.

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