Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 151724

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1224 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America,
and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.
The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather
observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough passes westward through Liberia near 05N10W. A
surface trough curves northeastward from 03N19W to 07N16W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 01N33W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is present from 00N to 05N between
02E and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120
nm either side of a line from 03S26W to 04N39W.



A weak ridge of high pressure extends WNW from the western
Atlantic over Georgia and Alabama. Surface return flow has set up
along the SW flank of the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate
E to ESE winds are observed over the eastern Gulf, while moderate
to fresh ESE to SE winds are evident over the western Gulf. Weak
surface troughing along the coast of Veracruz separates the ridge
over the Gulf from a residual high pressure cell situated just
inland over Mexico. Shower coverage over the Gulf is isolated. An
upper level ridge reaches northeastward over the Gulf from the Bay
of Campeche to the Florida west coast. Subsidence associated with
the ridge continues to cover the Gulf. This overall synoptic
pattern is expected to persist for at least the next couple of
days. The next front will reach the Texas coast on Tuesday
evening, but it is then expected to stall and weaken.


Fresh to strong trade winds are observed over the Caribbean Sea.
The strongest winds are seen south of Cuba, in the Windward
Passage and along the coast of Colombia. Isolated shower coverage
continues over the Caribbean. In the upper levels, a broad upper
level ridge remains in place over the eastern Caribbean Sea. An
upper level trough extends SW from Cuba to Honduras. Strong
subsidence associated with these features covers the entire
Caribbean. Expect similar weather and surface wind conditions to
persist through Monday night.


Fresh to strong NE winds prevail over the island and adjacent
coastal waters. Expect isolated showers to continue through Mon
night as the upper level subsidence and relatively dry trade wind
flow persist.


Broad surface ridging dominates the Atlantic west of 50W. Surface
low pressure centered near 38N66W will head east and drag a
frontal boundary southeastward into the waters north of 27N and
west of 50W by Monday evening. The front will begin to weaken west
of 60W by Tuesday morning. Farther E, surface troughing splits
the subtropical ridge from 19N44W to 32N33W. In the upper levels,
a sharp upper level trough that supports the surface trough curves
northeastward over the central Atlantic from 21N48W to 26N39W to
32N38W. Upper level divergence E of the trough is producing
scattered moderate convection within 120 nm either side of a line
from 23N37W to 28N31W to 32N31W. The surface trough over the
central Atlantic is expected to continue weakening as the upper-
level trough lifts out to the northeast.

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