Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
AXNT20 KNHC 221024
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast from
12N16W to 04N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 04N19W to 00N30W to 01N38W to the South American coast near
02S45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04S-03N
between 15W-33W, and from 00N-04N between 35W-52W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N67W.
Surface ridging extends W to E Texas near 30N94W producing 10-20
kt E to SE winds over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest winds over
the SE Gulf, and weakest winds over the NE Gulf. Radar imagery
shows scattered showers over the SE Gulf and the Straits of
Florida. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. In
the upper levels, an upper level trough is over Texas supporting
a cold front near Dallas Texas. An upper level ridge is over the
Gulf with axis along 80W. Upper level moisture is over the SE
Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the remainder of the Gulf. Expect
the Texas cold front to be over the NW Gulf in 18 hours with
scattered showers. 20-25 N winds will be N of front. Also expect
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to persist over the
SE Gulf for the next 24 hours.
A surface trough is over the W Caribbean from 19N80W to 12N81W.
Widely scattered moderate convection and scattered showers are
over the central Caribbean N of 15N, and over the W Caribbean N of
20N, to include Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. Further W, another
surface trough is over the W Caribbean from 22N87W to 16N87W
producing a wind shift. 20 kt SE wind are noted over the north
central Caribbean. In the upper levels, mostly zonal flow is
noted. Upper level moisture is over the central Caribbean N of
15N, and over the W Caribbean N of 20N. Strong subsidence is over
the SE Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for additional
scattered showers to be over Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands.
Expect little change elsewhere.
Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Expect Widely
scattered moderate convection and scattered showers over the
island for the next 24 hours. Expect the heaviest convection over
the afternoon and evening hours, during maximum heating.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the
Bahamas. A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near
28N67W. A 993 mb gale low is centered over the central Atlantic N
of the forecast area near 35N44W, producing 20-30 kt winds from
25N-31N between 40W-50W. Scattered moderate convection is from
29N-32N between 43W-47W. The tail end of a stationary front is
over the central Atlantic from 31N36W to 21N45W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 26N-31N between 30W-39W. Scattered
showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. A 1020 mb high is
centered N of the Canary Islands near 32N18W. Of note in the
upper levels, a large upper level low is centered over the central
Atlantic near 39N46W enhancing convection mostly E of the center.
Expect over the next 24 hours for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to persist over the Bahamas. Also expect little
change over the central Atlantic.
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