Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS NEAR 24.5N
72.9W...OR ABOUT 90 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR.
CRISTOBAL IS STATIONARY FOR THE MOMENT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W COVERING
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
24N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 17N ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA TO
20N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N AT THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 71W AND 73W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE WIND AND SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM
CRISTOBAL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N
TO 16N BETWEEN 19W AND 20W...AND FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 23W AND
24W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND
30W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE
RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE NEAR 10N35W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
THAT ARE FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL AND MAURITANIA NEAR 16N16W...TO 15N23W 10N35W AND 8N38W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N38W TO 6N44W AND 8N55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN
38W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 16N FROM 30W
EASTWARD...AND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 35W AND 52W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N55W 11N58W 8N59W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 9N TO 13N
BETWEEN 56W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER/EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
20N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD...AND FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM
90W EASTWARD.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N78W...
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND BEYOND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG IN ONE CELL THAT IS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
27N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N82W 28N86W 29N90W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS GULF
COAST/OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KVAF...AT 6500
FEET AT KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE AREA THAT IS AROUND
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND JAMAICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 1.10 IN CURACAO...1.00 BERMUDA...0.24 IN HAVANA CUBA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG...8N76W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS EASTERN
PANAMA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND NORTHWESTERN
COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 75W AND
THE WESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND THE BORDER WITH COLOMBIA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE AREA THAT IS AROUND
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND JAMAICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM
CRISTOBAL... NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE FROM 17N ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA TO 20N
BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N AT THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 71W AND 73W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO COVER
SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...FOLLWED BY AN INVERTED
TROUGH AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT IS
AROUND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N66W...JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 31N70W...TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 29N81W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N32W...TO 32N40W 28N51W TO 26N64W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W.  BETW
A SECOND AREA CONSISTS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 35W
FROM 10N TO 17N. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
8 FEET FROM 13N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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