Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 240520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 59.8W AS OF 24/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 85 NM E OF DOMINICA AND ABOUT 100 NM E-SE OF
GUADELOUPE MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS
FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 57W-60W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1008 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N39W. SSMI TPW SHOWS THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 39W-44W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY W NEAR 25-20 KT.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE PREVAILS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
THAT EXTENDS ALONG 22W FROM 12N-17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE AREA E
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. LATEST IR
IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 20W-28W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N17W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
14N21W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 15N24W TO A 1008 MB LOW
NEAR 14N39W TO 12N47W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW...NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS
OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 23N97W
COVERING THE AREA W OF 90W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN
THE W ATLANTIC COVERS THE EASTERN HALF. THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N-
27W BETWEEN 88W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING
OFFSHORE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS W OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
MAINLY FROM 25N-27N AND E OF 83W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1016 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR 29N92W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING
ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS TO BE THE TROPICAL STORM DANNY WHICH
CONTINUES MOVING W APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ASIDE FROM THIS
FEATURE...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AT THIS TIME.
TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY AIRMASS COVERING THE MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT N OF 17N AND W OF 73W WHERE MODERATE TO HIGH
MOIST AIRMASS PREVAILS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ACROSS SW HAITI AND CUBA. TO THE S...THE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ACROSS PANAMA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 10N. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15 BETWEEN 72W-80W
WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR DANNY TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES W ENTERING THE
E CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER SW HAITI AT THIS
TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
EXPECT FOR MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS TROPICAL STORM DANNY ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN AND
APPROACHES THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS MOVING W APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
WHILE A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG 39W. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N76W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 26N67W
TO 32N61W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-32W
BETWEEN 39W-47W. A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N39W
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR
WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT DANNY TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHILE WEAKENING TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN
THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MEANDER ALONG 28N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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