Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 161202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is along 31N76W to 29N81W. SW gale-force winds and
sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet, are to the north of
29N within 360 nm to the east of the cold front. to the east of
the front to 75W. Expect these conditions for the next 24 hours or
so. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...and the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for
more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through 05N10W in Liberia, to 02N18W,
to the equator along 25W. The ITCZ continues from the equator
along 25W to 01S32W, crossing the equator along 36W, to 01N46W.
Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 07N southward from 46W eastward. Isolated moderate
from 12N southward between 46W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level-to-upper level SW-to-W wind flow is moving through
the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level atmospheric support for the
current cold front that is in the area is in the Atlantic Ocean,
from North Carolina to the NW Bahamas. A trough from 600 mb to 800
mb passes through Florida to the Yucatan Channel. A cold front
passes through 32N71W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida near
26N81W, into the Gulf of Mexico just off the NW coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. The front is
stationary, inland, from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to 25N101W. A
surface trough extends from the Florida Keys, through the Yucatan
Channel, into NW Belize. A surface ridge extends from a Texas 1023
mb high pressure center that is near 30N98W, into the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from the
Bahamas that are from 24N northward from 73W westward, through
the Straits of Florida and along the NW coast of Cuba, to the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. High clouds are moving into the
Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong is in the Atlantic Ocean from 27N northward between Bermuda
and 75W, within 60 nm on either side of the cold front.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Jasper. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Patterson. from
MISSISSIPPI to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR in Marathon Key. the
light rain has stopped for the moment at the NAS in Key West.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire
Caribbean Sea. High level clouds are moving through the NW corner,
across the Greater Antilles, and moving from South America into
the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery elsewhere across the area.

Rainshowers are possible across the area, in areas of broken low
level clouds.

24-HOUR rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 16/0000 UTC...
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level to upper level W wind flow is moving across the
area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water
vapor imagery across Hispaniola. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible inland, and in the waters that surround
Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona, at 16/0000 UTC, VFR. Santo Domingo:
VFR. La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during most of the 48-hour forecast period.
W-to-NW wind flow will move across the area during the last 6
hours to 12 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that
day one will start with SW wind flow, becoming W and then NW wind
flow, and then solidly NW wind flow, until the last 6 hours to 12
hours of the 48-hour forecast period. An anticyclonic circulation
center will move on top of Hispaniola during the last 6 hours to
12 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that broad
anticyclonic wind flow will cover Hispaniola for the next 36 hours
or so, followed by N-to-NE wind flow at the end of the 48-hour
forecast period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is about 750 nm to the west of Africa. The
trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N35W to
28N44W and 26N52W. A surface trough continues 26N52W to 30N64W.
A second surface trough is along 27N44W 23N50W 20N57W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N
northward between 40W and 60W.

A cold front, that is lagging behind its upper level support that
already is in Africa, extends from a 1017 mb low pressure center
that is near 30N18W, across the Canary Islands, to 27N16W and
23N19W. The cold front is dissipating from 23N19W to 20N30W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 17N
northward between Africa and 40W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N27W to 26N34W, to a 1022 mb
high pressure center that is near 24N43W. A 1022 mb high pressure
center is near 30N48W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
area that is to the north of the frontal boundary between 37W and
55W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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