Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 041146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS RETURNING TO THE SW GULF
LATER THIS MORNING THEN WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N20W ALONG 2N26W 2N32W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE PLAIN STATES TO MEXICO
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OVER THE BIG BEND
AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG 25N90W TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 21N93W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF
26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF LINE FROM SE
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
OVER E TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW TO THE NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER THIS MORNING THEN
SHIFTING E TOWARD THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN
TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN AND COUPLED
WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ONLY PRODUCING PATCHES
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 80W-85W TO OVER W
CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT MORNING PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE E COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC WILL MOVE W FROM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THU AFTERNOON
INTO FRI. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY FRI
BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE HAITI FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRI AND SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N68W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
NEAR 21N58W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N55W TO A 1010
MB LOW NEAR 22N57W CONTINUING S ALONG 18N56W THEN W TO 16N61W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-25N
BETWEEN 54W-61W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS INDUCED TO THE E OF THE UPPER
LOW WHICH IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
14N-26N BETWEEN 46W-53W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH OFF
THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE W ATLC THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N65W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING N AS A
WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SHIFT W THROUGH FRI AS IT WEAKENS THEN
DISSIPATES OVER HAITI FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT DEVELOPING A NEW COLD FRONT
ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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