Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 141016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Ophelia is centered near 33.9N 28.6W at 14/0900 UTC or
about 256 nm SSW of the Azores, moving ENE at 21 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 32N-36N between 26W-30W. The core of
Ophelia will pass to the south and southeast of the southeastern
Azores by tonight or early Sunday. See the latest Forecast/
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis extending from
13N28W to 04N29W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of
moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a
distinct surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 14N41W to 04N43W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area
of moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in
a distinct surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is W of the wave axis from
08N-11N between 42W-48W.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from
22N61W to 10N62W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of
abundant moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a
distinct surface trough, and a distinct 700 mb trough. Scattered
moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 13N-17N between
53W-58W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean and Central America with axis
extending from 19N85W to 04N84W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is
in a region of abundant moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The
wave is in a surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is E of the wave axis from
10N-17N between 80W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N12W to
07N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N18W to 06N28W, then resumes from 07N31W to 08N42W. The ITCZ
resumes again from 08N45W to 09N59W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 09N-12N between 32W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 28N84W to
20N88W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough.
Scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida
between 80W-83W. Scattered showers are also over the Bay of
Campeche. Mostly fair weather is over the N Gulf. 10-20 kt
easterly surface winds are over the Gulf, with strongest winds
over the central Gulf. In the upper levels, a large upper level
high is centered over S Louisiana near 30N92W, with strong
subsidence. Expect the surface trough to move W over the next 24
hours with additional showers.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. The eastern
extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa Rica and
Panama. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean
from 06N-10N between 77W-81W. Scattered showers are over Central
America from Guatemala to Nicaragua. Of note in the upper levels,
a small upper level high is centered over the Leeward Islands near
18N63W, with subsidence. Expect the tropical wave over the Lesser
Antilles to produce convection over the E Caribbean over the next
24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate convection persists over SW Hispaniola.
Expect scattered showers and isolated showers in the afternoon and
evening hours Saturday. Expect additional convection Sunday due
to the tropical wave.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Ophelia is over the E Atlantic. See above. A surface
trough is NE of the Bahamas from 31N72W to 26N75W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Scattered moderate
convection is from 24N-26N between 65W-67W. Further east, a
surface trough is noted from 29N58W to 24N62W. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the trough. The remainder of the central and
eastern Atlantic, outside of the influence of Hurricane Ophelia,
is under the influence of surface ridging anchored by a 1020 mb
high centered near 26N48W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa




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