Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 271143
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
643 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High pressure brought mostly clear skies, aside from some mid-
level clouds across the south, and light winds. Temperatures
remain mild in the mid to upper 60s.

GOES IFR probability product highlighting areas along and south of
highway 136 for possible dense fog. However, do not have sfc obs
in this region to confirm fog formation. Further south,
Kirksville, MO and Quincy, IL are reporting 1/4SM FG. Will
continue to monitor conditions and likely handle with a special
weather statement if necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Today...Bit more of a range in temps compared to the last few
days - from the lower 80s north of highway 20 to the lower 90s
along/south of highway 34 west of Galesburg, IL. Daytime mixing
forecast to increase NW winds to 10-20 mph from the late morning
through the aftn. Humidity will be very comfortable with dewpoints
in the lower 60s.

Tonight...Mostly clear and cooler in the upper 50s on avg. 850mb
trough and associated cold air advection drop in from the north
during this period, causing 850mb temps to fall to around 10 C by
early Tuesday morning. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Expect dry and cooler conditions on Tuesday as high pressure builds
into the region. Afternoon highs will range from the low 70s near
Freeport to around 80 degrees near Keokuk. For Wednesday, afternoon
highs will be a few degrees warmer, but still slightly below normal
for late June.

There will likely be one main period of potential showers and storms
through the extended, but synoptic models remain inconsistent on the
timing. The 27/00z GFS and GEM are stronger solutions with initial
rain chances Wednesday, followed by more showers/storms with the
main fropa Thursday and Thursday night. The ECMWF is the weakest
solution with rain only in the far north Thursday afternoon/evening.
Blended model pops range from 20 to 40 percent from Wednesday night
through Thursday night. Rain will likely not occur all three
periods, but will not vary from the model blend as it is difficult
to rule out any particular period at this time.

High pressure will be the dominant feature Thursday night through
Sunday with little or no chance of additional rain. Expect near to
slightly below normal temps, with afternoon highs mainly in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. Daytime mixing will
create NW wind gusts of 15-20 kts, possibly higher at KDBQ late
this morning through the aftn. Otherwise, it will remain dry and
quiet into tomorrow. Uttech

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Uttech



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